SIX NATIONS ROUND THREE – KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON

Round three is what is proving to be an exhilarating Six Nations. The simple wartime message of “Keep Calm and Carry On” seems to be an appropriate one for five of the six teams. Only 33% success rate in my predictions so far but in a tournament of surprise results, no one was backing Wales to triumph in Paris and few would have expected Scotland to rise to the challenge against an Italian team that was so dominant in round one.  That's what makes this competition the most exciting in World Rugby. The uncertainty and unpredictability are what make us love this game so much. Lets look at this week’s matches:

ITALY v WALES

Ten seconds of inspiration from Dan Biggar was enough to save a nation. The whole of the principality breathed a sign of total relief as Ryan Jones’s team showed grit and determination to win a rare victory in Paris. Wales have only won five times in Paris in the past 38 years and after being written off by everyone the dragon rose to the challenge. Al Pacino delivered the speech “Life is a game of inches” in the epic sports movie Any Given Sunday and that really reflected where Wales were before that winning try.

One win doesn’t make a championship but it certainly gives Wales heart and optimism for the remaining games. Rob Howley has rightly stuck with the same starting line up in Rome, which means no place for Sam Warburton. Justin Tipuric is smaller and more mobile in the loose and is the form no. 7 in Wales. Rightly he keeps his place after two good performances. Captain Courageous Ryan Jones was an inspiration in Paris and my man of the match. What a performance by a player who has taken more knock downs from the Welsh selectors than a punch drunk boxer.  Wales stood up where they needed too and we saw a much more confidant Dan Biggar playing behind a pack, which held its own against the French.

So on to Rome – Wales own banana skin venue. This time things are different. Expect a big Welsh support in the Stadio Olympico and it will feel like a home game for Wales. Italy has been a curate’s egg – good in parts; but they will miss the inspiration of their skipper Parisse who will be a massive loss to them. The Welsh pack will be able to match the Azzuri upfront and they have the power in the backs to score tries as well as kick penalties. In the end it will come down to who gives away the highest number of penalties. Italy have made some strange selections with the awful Kris Burton returning at outside half and I don’t see how any of their 4 changes improve their chances. Tight at times but a Welsh victory by at least 7 points.

Italy 14 Wales 21

ENGLAND v FRANCE

What should have been the big game of this competition is rather turned into a damp squib. Just how awful have France been in their two games so far? Atrocious is a polite description of a French side that have shown no heart for the fight and the total absence of a plan B assuming there was even a plan A! Hard to believe this is the same team who best Australia by 33pts just 4 months ago.  Saint Andre has been forced into changes and you have to say this now looks like a much more balanced and dangerous French XV. Seven changes may seem a lot but my god they were needed. The recall of Parra and Trinh-Doh at half backs looks like the right decision. Outside half is a problem position in France. There are “foreign” players occupying the No. 10 jersey at 10 out of 14 top clubs. Trinh-Doh has a patchy record but he is at least a proper fly half expect the backs to get moving. Wesley Fofana back at Centre is the again the right choice and Vincent Clerc is always dangerous with the ball in his hands.

In the forwards, Prop Thomas Domingo, hooker Benjamin Kayser, and lock Christophe Samson all add power to the pack and it will be an interesting game at scrum time. The recall of Yannick Nyanga at flanker gives the back row a dangerous and attacking look about them.

As for England, they were simply superb in a grinding game in Dublin. Their pack was on top and they stopped Ireland from getting good quick ball in atrocious conditions. Joe Marler stood up where it was needs and performed very well against the over-rated Mike Ross. Far play – Marler is another player I haven’t rated who stepped up after a shaky performance against Scotland.  Farrell is kicking withy metronomic accuracy and England’s pack are a real hand full for anyone right now.

So why mess with the team? I just don’t get some of Stuart Lancaster’s selection decisions for this game. Lancaster is turning into a great rather than a good coach so he obviously sees things we don’t in making some controversial changes. Lets start with eth easy one. Tom Youngs has been poor in both of his games so far, and the recall of Dylan Hartley looks like a safe and just decision. The dropping of Twelvetrees is a backward step for me. He has had two great games and now he is dropped. Why? Manu Tuilagi is a big one dimensional lump. I really can’t see the logic of dropping an intelligent footballer like Twelvetrees to bring in the beast.  Bastareaud is a similar player for France and he did nothing, and I mean nothing with the ball in hand against Wales. I would have left Manu on the bench and used him as a 20 minute game breaker rather than starting.

Even more bizarre is the selection of Courtney Lawes at flanker.  Sure he has played there for Northampton but he is hardly a specialist and against France’s marauding back row that could be a very poor selection. Thomas Waldrom is the specialist on the bench and I expect he will have at least 30 minutes game time.

France have lost their last 5 at Twickenham and it is difficult to see them breaking down England this time. Several pundits are referencing the 2011 World Cup where France with no form upset England. I don’t see that this time unless they get early tries. England need to stay calm and keep to their game plan and kick the multiple penalties they will get from the French pack. Keep the scoreboard ticking over and watch the French heads droop should be the plan. France will I believe shock all of us withy their team spirit and will rise to the challenge and I feel a few English sphincters could be popping second half. England with a narrow 2 point victory.

England 30 France 28

SCOTLAND v IRELAND

The Scots shocked everyone with their margin of victory over Italy. They looked inspired and it was no doubt the best Scottish performance home or away for many years. Hogg and Maitland looked full of running and Jackson and Laidlaw looked much more assured than the previous week. In the forwards, Kelly Brown has proved to be a solid captain and Geoff Cross is a wily old fox who will ensure the front row stays solid despite the absence of Euan Murray with this being a Sunday game. With bench options with Denton and Kellock – the Scottish pack has the ability to stand up and be counted. The home advantage will tell and with cold weather – you feel Scotland have a chance of back to back Six Nations victories for the first time since 2001.

Ireland were ground down by England’s forwards in Dublin and their mounting injury count means we see a far different Ireland team this week. Ireland were deceiving in their opening game with Wales asleep for 50 minutes and they are massively over-rated. The loss of Healy is a big blow in the pack and with Mike Ross being taught a lesson is scrummaging and loose play last week by Dan Cole, the Irish pack is not looking that convincing. With D’Arcy and Sexton also missing – a good deal of flair has been stripped from the Irish attack. 

The Ulster pair of Paddy Jackson and Luke Marshall are bold choices at Fly half and Centre, but have they got the bottle? Jackson folded horribly under pressure in last year’s Heineken Cup final. With Ferris and Zebo out for the rest of the competition, and Chris Henry injured for this game; the options for changes off the bench look thin. If Jackson can hold it together, then Ireland have the belief to go on and win against against their Celtic cousins.

I think Scotland will hold firm and nick a surprise victory. Scotland by 3 points.

Scotland 19 Ireland 16