Wales, England and Ireland will all head into Super Saturday with hopes of clinching the 2019 Guinness Six Nations title. Wales welcome Ireland to Cardiff knowing that victory for Warren Gatland’s men will guarantee them both the Grand Slam and the Championship.
A clean sweep of five wins would earn Wales an extra three bonus points in the final standings, putting them out of England’s reach regardless of whether Eddie Jones’ men can beat Scotland in the final game of Super Saturday.
It’s been an excellent tournament this year with some close and exciting matches. So, without further ado – let’s review the final matches:
Italy v France
The early kick off sees Les Bleus head to Rome. France were bitterly disappointing in Dublin which again shows the unpredictability of French rugby after their thrashing of Scotland in Paris in Round 3.
Despite two late tries from Chat and Huget, the stats don’t lie, and France were totally outclassed by the Irish who enjoyed 89% territory in the first half, and finished with 72% percent making seven clean breaks, to just one for their opponents. France were massively out-played by Ireland, only responding with two consolation tries after falling 26 points in arrears.
It was their 10th loss in Brunel’s 14-match reign. For French rugby to move forward it’s becoming clear that they have to have some selection stability and build a team build on the young guns who have debuted in this tournament. That selectional stability must believe; come with change of Head Coach.
Jacques Brunel has a proven coaching heritage. Then so did Guy Noves and Phillipe Saint-André before him. France have stuck with French coaches since Bernard Laporte left in 2007. France need new eyes and they could do worse than look to former Scotland coach Vern Cotter.
Scotland made the unwise decision to remove Cotter to keep Gregor Townsend in the fold and that has hardly been an unmitigated success. Cotter is a shrewd and talented coach who left his position at Scotland with a 53% win rate (19 wins from 36 games) the most successful coach of Scotland in the professional era and the most successful since Ian McGeechan between 1988 and 1993.
Brunel’s future lies in the hands of the FFR and given their tolerance of mediocrity, it’s difficult to see them take the decisive steps required to improve France before the forthcoming World Cup in Japan.
Beleaguered Jacques Brunel has ripped asunder his France team that were humiliated in Dublin last Sunday. His final team of the 2019 championship inevitably sees six changes for the clash with Italy. The under-fire coach has responded by ringing the changes for fear that their terrible Six Nations campaign could finish on the humiliating low of a Stadio Olimpico defeat.
Wesley Fofana is recalled from injury and comes in for his final Guinness Six Nations game, replacing Gael Fickou in a new midfield partnership with Mathieu Bastareaud.
Maxime Medard is the other change in the backline, slotting in at full-back replacing Thomas Ramos which is a backward step. Ramos is named amongst the replacements. Medard will link up with Damian Penaud and Yohan Huget in the back three.
Up front Etienne Falgoux makes his first France start in place of the injured Jefferson Poirot.
Paul Willemse returns to the starting XV in the second row replacing Sebastien Vahaamahina while Gregory Alldritt and Yacouba Camara both come into the back row replacing Arthur Iturria and Wenceslas Lauret. Iturria is named on the bench whilst Lauret drops out of the match day 23.
Camille Lopez is recalled to the bench with Stade Francais’ Second row Paul Gabrillagues.
For Italy, there was no surprise in the nature of their defeat at Twickenham. They were simply blown away by the sheer power of England – especially their back division to whom they had no answer.
But there were some small crumbs of comfort for coach Conor O’Shea as Italy never gave up and never stopped trying. What we saw were a lot of players who played right up until the final whistle. They are a A+ for effort and a E for achievement in this year’s tournament.
Conor O’Shea has made five changes to his Italy side as they bid to avoid yet another Six Nations wooden spoon. The Azzurri are on a 20-match losing streak in the tournament and have opted to change a third of the team beaten in last Saturday’s round four game by England.
O’Shea’s only tweak in the back line to face struggling France is in midfield where he has handed 21 year old Benetton centre Marco Zanon his debut alongside club-mate Luca Morisi in place of the injured Michele Campagnaro.
However, he has rung the changes up front, altering half of those who started at Twickenham.
Jake Polledri returns to the starting line-up in the back row, David Sisi is back in the second row for the injured Dean Budd, while Tiziano Pasquali and Leonardo Ghiraldini also return to the front row.
It’s very hard to see anything other than a French victory but I do believe they will have to work for it. Brunel will have seen the way that England’s powerful centres T’eo and Tuigali ran through the Italian defence so expect to see a lot from Mathieu Bastareaud as they will seek to bash their way to success in Rome.
Conor O'Shea and the Azzurri are desperate to finish this Championship on a high with their first victory. They downed France in Rome back in 2011 and 2013 and gave them a real fright in Paris three years ago.
As always it’s a case of which France will turn up. They have to get it right and recover from the disappointments in Dublin and I see France winning a tight encounter by at least seven points.
Italy 18 France 25
Wales v Ireland
Match two is the titanic clash between the two Celtic Tigers in Cardiff. This clash is always spiky and despite the shared heritage between the two nations there will be no quarter given once the referee starts the match.
Wales will be seeking their 12th Grand Slam and their 1st since 2012 and Warren Gatland could potentially bow out as the first coach to win three Grand Slams. During his reign, Wales achieved clean sweeps in 2008 and 2012, and it is the New Zealander's final Six Nations match before he leaves his post after the World Cup in Japan later this year.
As a Welshman, I am absolutely delighted to see the Dragons be in such a position, but their championship has not made easy watching for anyone of a nervous disposition. Wales have been far from convincing on the road.
Wales have continued to grind their way forward but only their clash with England has been of real merit. They rode their luck against France coming back from a 16-0 deficit. Stuttered to victory against Italy in Rome and used every ounce of defensive nouce against Scotland after appearing to be in a comfortable position at half time.
Wales showed just why they are regarded by many as the best defensive side in the world by repelling multiple Scottish attacks at Murrayfield. Josh Navidi has become a solid wall and his back row companion Justin Tipuric who is more renowned as a tricky attacking & has joined him as they form a machine at the heart of the Welsh defence.
Warren Gatland has named an unchanged match-day squad to face Ireland in their Grand Slam showdown. Wales’ tournament finale will be Warren Gatland’s 50th Six Nations match for Wales - and also his last Championship game as Wales boss.
Captain Alun Wyn Jones will equal Gethin Jenkins’ total test appearance record as he moves to 134 test caps (125 Wales, 9 British & Irish Lions) and to joint fifth in the overall world test appearance list. He again packs down with Adam Beard in the second row, with Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Tomas Francis continuing together in the front row – Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty comprise the back row.
Gareth Davies and Gareth Anscombe are named as the half-backs with Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies in the centres.
Josh Adams, George North and Liam Williams once again comprise the back-three for Wales.
The big surprise is they fitness of Liam Williams. When he left the field with his arm in a makeshift sling against Scotland last weekend, Liam Williams’ chances of starting against Ireland looked highly unlikely. But, lo and behold, Williams has made it.
The talented footballer has a renowned high pain threshold, and his availability is a huge plus for Wales, for he has been one of the players of the Six Nations with his work under the high ball and counter-attacking prowess.
Gatland has also retained the replacements' bench personnel selected for Edinburgh, with a fit-again Leigh Halfpenny missing out on a first Test match involvement since he suffered concussion when Wales beat Australia in November. Elliot Dee, Nicky Smith and Dillon Lewis provide the front-row cover on the bench, with Jake Ball and Aaron Wainwright completing the forward contingent. Aled Davies, Dan Biggar and Owen Watkin once again provide the backline cover.
For Ireland – they are still one of the strongest sides in the World and will absolutely not want to give an inch to Wales. They will have no fear of Wales and have a great record at the Principality stadium winning on 4 of their last 7 visits although you have to go back to 2103 for their last victory.
Ireland rediscovered their 2018 mojo to thump France 26-14 in Dublin in Round 4 and sustain their slender Guinness Six Nations title hopes.
Ireland’s bonus-point win means victory against Grand Slam-chasing Wales in Cardiff on Saturday could yet sweep the title, though that would also require an England slip-up against Scotland at Twickenham.
Schmidt’s men finally showed the kind of form that elevated them above all comers in 2018, a year that comprised a Grand Slam and second victory over New Zealand. To achieve that against a background of a growing casualty list has been a great turn around for Joe Schmidt after his team were blown away by England in Round 1.
One of the big factors hurting Ireland has been the ever-changing back row combinations that required yet another alteration when they face Wales. Joe Schmidt hasn’t been able to select the same back row from one match to the next in the 2019 championship, and he must now tweak his selection again after it was confirmed that Josh van der Flier is unavailable due to the knock he picked up in last Sunday’s win over France.
Schmidt makes three changes for the game against Wales.
Tadhg Beirne will make his Six Nations debut for Ireland. The former Scarlets favourite will know exactly what to expect from Wales as he replaces the injured Iain Henderson (knee) and starts in the second row alongside James Ryan.
Beirne, 27, made his international debut during last summer's tour of Australia and has four caps.
Rob Kearney, who was a late withdrawal last weekend, returns at full-back having recovered from a calf strain.
The front row remains unchanged with Cian Healy and Tadhg Furlong either side of captain Rory Best, who will make his final championship appearance.
Munster men Peter O'Mahony and CJ Stander retain their places in the back row, while Jack Conan who impressed last week, playing just under an hour of the 26-14 win, returns to the bench.
The Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton half-back partnership remains intact, while Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose line out in the centre.
Jacob Stockdale and Keith Earls keep their wing berths.
Munster duo Niall Scannell, Dave Kilcoyne plus Andrew Porter cover the front row off the bench, with Ultan Dillane and Conan the other forward replacements.
Scrum-half Kieran Marmion may get his first taste of Six Nations action this year off the bench, with Jack Carty and Jordan Larmour covering the rest of the backline.
This is all set to be an incredible contest. Ireland are one of the top rated teams in the world. The back row Ireland have named looks fearsome. The return of Sean O'Brien could be significant. With Beirne and James Ryan in front of them in the engine room and a front row of skipper Rory Best at hooker with Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy amounts to a pack that will take some subduing and then some.
The Irish back-line is also hugely experienced and retains a potent attacking look.
But let’s not forget Wales are at home and going for a title. Under Warren Gatland’s direction they have usually responded positively to the pressure of seriously big occasions, as underlined against England in Cardiff just over a fortnight ago. Apart from anything else it is now a decade since Wales last lost at home on a final Six Nations weekend. Ireland have not won in Wales in the Six Nations since 2013 and this weekend’s matchday atmosphere will once again be off the scale.
It's an incredibly strong Irish side and Wales will need to take the England performance and go a level higher to come out on top. It will all come down to the day, on any day Ireland could beat Wales, but the same could be said about Wales, it’s who wants it most on the day. I think it will be decided in the last 5 minutes. Wales to snatch it, just.
Wales 23 Ireland 21
England v Scotland
The final game of Super Saturday sees England take on the “Auld Enemy” Scotland in the 126th Calcutta Cup encounter at Twickenham. The highlanders will be seeking their first win at HQ since 1983 and after the failures against France and Wales it is going to a vertical cliff for them to climb to repeat last season’s triumph.
England continued to impress this Six Nations with the expected demolition of Italy in Round 4. At “Fortress Twickenham” they will be seeking revenue for the way they gave up the cup in such a meek way in Murrayfield last season.
England head coach Eddie Jones has named his team to play Scotland and there are four changes to the starting XV that lined up against Italy last week. Jones has sprung a major surprise by dropping Joe Cokanasiga.
Jack Nowell who has recovered from a shoulder stinger injury replaces him on the right wing. Cokanasiga was named man of the match after Italy were swept aside in the penultimate round of the championship and was compared to Jonah Lomu by Clive Woodward, but the Fijian-born wing cannot even win a place on the bench for the Calcutta Cup showdown.
Henry Slade replaces Ben Te’o who drops to the bench whilst Ben Moon swaps with Ellis Genge in the front row and Mark Wilson is recalled for Brad Shields who is also named as a finisher.
Ben Spencer is also in line for a Guinness Six Nations debut if called off the bench as England chase a revenge victory over the Auld Enemy.
Ben Youngs will pick up his 85th cap for his country on Saturday and will become England’s most capped scrum half of all time moving ahead of Danny Care.
For Gregor Townsend’s Scotland perhaps the crucial question following performances in patches against both Wales and Ireland is whether they can click and start converting chances.
Against Wales, Scotland had more possession (59%), territory (58%), played more balls (362 to 259) and carried almost double the amount of metres (872.9 to 472.7) but they were unable to turn that into sufficient points as Wales held firm to prevail.
Plenty more chances will come against Eddie Jones’ England – The Red Rose kick the ball away more than any other side – 134 from hand this Championship compared to Scotland’s 82.
As a result, Scotland can expect plenty of possession on Saturday while England are happier without it – their total of 43.2% possession is the lowest of all six sides despite scoring 19 tries and counting.
Scotland have also been cruelly robbed of the chance to really compete this competition by their on-going injury crisis which shows no sign of abating. I discussed the lack of squad depth in last week’s preview – so no point going over old ground here.
Coach Gregor Townsend has made six changes to the starting Scotland team to face England in this Saturday’s final round Six Nations match at Twickenham.
Scotland’s team changes are split evenly between the backs and forwards and see English Premiership pair Sean Maitland and Byron McGuigan start in place of back three counterparts Blair Kinghorn and Tommy Seymour – both injured in last weekend’s loss to Wales – alongside try-scorer Darcy Graham.
The alterations to the back division are completed by Glasgow Warriors inside centre Sam Johnson, who starts his fourth Test of the tournament in place of club-mate Pete Horne. Johnson partners fellow Warrior Nick Grigg in midfield, with half-backs Finn Russell and Ali Price starting once again.
The starting back row features two of the three pack changes where Hamish Watson is recalled and will earn his 25th cap in place of Jamie Ritchie, who has not recovered sufficiently from the head/neck injury sustained against Wales to feature this weekend.
Sam Skinner – injured in the opening round win over Italy – returns to blindside flank in place of Josh Strauss – who moves to the bench – with Magnus Bradbury moving to the national No8 position for the first time.
The last change sees Ben Toolis start in place of Jonny Gray – who moves to the bench – alongside club-mate Grant Gilchrist to form an all-Edinburgh tight five with returning front row forwards Allan Dell, captain Stuart McInally and Willem Nel. It means all but one of the starting pack hails from the capital club.
Scotland have been more than in the game in their three defeats and if chances are taken, England could be in for a real fight. Throughout the competition it’s been those final passes, those final steps to get over the line, that’s been stopping Scotland.
They have got those positives, they will be creating chances, but the unanswered question is can they take that to the next step now and start putting these teams away?
It looks unlikely. England will have their tails up and despite the result in Cardiff – even if Wales have already won the Grand Slam by kick off; England will want to end on a high note and lay down a marker that the defeat in Cardiff was just a one off aberration and their World cup juggernaut is still moving in the right direction.
They will have far too much power for Scotland, and I fear a repeat of 2017 and that Townsend’s troops will be in for a heavy battering.
England 53 Scotland 13
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