Round 4 - who dares wins!

Round 4 - who dares wins!

The penultimate round of Six Nations matches arrives this weekend after the excitement and drama of Round 3. France finally found winning ways with a demolition of Scotland. Wales defied the pundits and delivered a knockout punch to England’s momentum whilst Ireland managed their bonus point win over Italy, but it was a far from convincing performance. 

All of that lines up to an exciting set of contests in Round 4. Let’s review the matches…

Scotland v Wales

First match up this weekend sees Wales travel north to take on Gregor Townsend’s Scotland in the early kick off. The unbeaten tournament leaders, who are seeking a first Six Nations clean sweep since 2012, will tackle a wounded Scotland at Murrayfield on Saturday.

With the Scots beaten by France in Paris just a few hours before Wales defeated England in Cardiff in Round 3, Warren Gatland’s men will start the match as firm favourites in most people’s eyes. But Townsend will have hopes of an upset, with Scotland having defeated the Welsh in Edinburgh two years ago and, before the recent defeat by Ireland, enjoying a run of superb home form. 

Wales were outstanding against England. Nothing more to add above what the press have already sated. They finished with 65 percent possession and 68 percent territory by the end of the game. A fantastic second-half effort. England made 99 more tackles than Wales - which tells its own story - while Wales made 714 in metres against England's 471.

It was a typical derby match caldron of an atmosphere with England looking the more dangerous in the 1st half and Wales were lucky to keep them to just one try. 

But slowly, Wales inched back in to the game. At 10-9, Farrell’s missed kick to touch and England’s loss of discipline meant Wales firmly had them rattled and then beat them at their own game with the 35 phases of pick and go leading to Cory Hill’s try. The welsh crowd could sense blood and literally sang their team to victory with 15 minutes to go.

Liam Williams was rightly named Man of the Match and Wales now need to build on it with two games remaining. Ross Moriarty was an absolute warrior at No.8 and Josh Adams is cementing his place at wing with another great performance.

The Anscombe/Biggar debate at outside half  for now at least;  on hold. The current strategy of Anscombe staring with Biggar coming off the bench is working well and the different styles both offer attacking capabilities that the Welsh back line are more than capable of finishing.

It’s a shame the WRU seem intent on screwing everything up with the leaking of a potential regional merger between the Ospreys and Scarlets and the public mudslinging over the past days as the grand plan unravelled. With so many of their players in the Welsh squad how could you be so stupid as to cause upset and unsettle players before a crucial weekend encounter? Only the WRU can be that stupid and their reputation as the Worst Run Union is once again there for all to see. Grab your shotgun and shoot yourself in the foot. Utter mismanagement and stupidity. 

So, against that backdrop, Wales have announced their match day squad early as Warren Gatland has made just one injury-enforced change to his starting XV as lock Adam Beard comes into the team to take on Scotland. The returning Beard – who started the first two games of the Championship before coming off the bench against England in Cardiff – remains unbeaten in his first 11 Test caps in a Welsh jersey and replaces the injured Cory Hill.

Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Tomas Francis again form the front row with Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty named in the back row.

Gareth Davies and Gareth Anscombe start at scrum-half and fly-half respectively with Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies forming the midfield partnership.

Josh Adams, George North and Liam Williams line-up in the back-three.

Elliot Dee, Nicky Smith and Dillon Lewis provide the front row cover on the bench with Jake Ball and Aaron Wainwright completing the forward contingent. Aled Davies, Dan Biggar and Owen Watkin provide the backline cover.

No real surprises here although Gatland might have been tempted to add Leigh Halfpenny to the bench after his impressive performance last weekend against Munster. 

They have lost just once in Edinburgh during the past 12 years, and another victory would then see Wales go for Six Nations glory when Ireland visit Cardiff on 16 March.

For Scotland – the manner of their defeat in Paris will be hugely disappointing. Scotland were simply unable to match the power and skill of Les Bleus and In the end they should be thankful that the margin of defeat wasn’t greater and were lucky to escape without a larger hammering.

There are several ways to look at the Scottish performance in Paris.  
Firstly,  it’s clear that a rejuvenated France actually played very well and dominated the game in all areas. 

Secondly – it may just have been one of those days when a good team never quite gets going, when it looks slow of mind and foot, and consequently mistakes abound. 

Thirdly, although Scotland probably do have more strength in depth than before, this isn’t so great that they can overcome the loss of six or seven first-choice players, among them their two most dangerous backs and most experienced flankers. 

There’s something to be said for all three explanations. I had a nasty feeling very early in the match that things were going to go wrong. Scotland got a penalty in their 22 immediately after the kick-off. Blair Kinghorn found touch and then they lost the resulting lineout on their own throw. A small incident but one that set the course for the game. 

Scotland were rarely secure in possession and for the first hour at least almost all the ball won was painfully slow. There were too many defensive mistakes of the kind which at Test match level should be avoidable and which are usually punished. It’s also obvious that a Scotland XV without Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, John Barclay, Hamish Watson and Huw Jones is significantly weaker than one that includes them. It may be that some of the replacements are never quite going to cut it at international level, no matter how good they look in club matches.

Then you have Greig Laidlaw. He has been poor in all three rounds so far. His kicking accuracy has been off, and he has been found absent too many times in defence. Scotland have been ponderous in attack for much of this championship, especially in that dreadful display in Paris, and Laidlaw must shoulder some of the responsibility.

So, it’s no surprise that he has been dropped from the team to face Wales with Coach Gregor Townsend making four changes to his starting XV.  

Talismanic Finn Russell is back after missing the loss to France with a head injury and he starts at fly-half. The return of the Racing 92 man sees Pete Horne move to inside-centre in place of Sam Johnson where he partners Scotstoun colleague Nick Grigg. 

Ali Price is the surprise change to partner Russell at half back although it should be noted that they know each other very well form their time together at Glasgow. Price is a competent scrum half and who has come off the bench in seven Championship matches since last starting against Wales in February 2018. Townsend is no mug. He knows Laidlaw has been struggling and he will need more than one scrum half for the forthcoming World cup. Price ticks all the boxes.  

Darcy Graham replaces the ailing injured Sean Maitland on the wing and scrumming expert WP Nel is back at prop.

In Laidlaw’s absence, Stuart McInally captains the side from hooker. In the pack,  Townsend has selected an unchanged back-five, with Grant Gilchrist partnering Jonny Gray - in the second-row while Magnus Bradbury, Jamie Ritchie and Josh Strauss retain their back-row places.

Jonny Gray and Tommy Seymour will both make their 50th Scotland appearances whilst warrior Hamish Watson returns from injury to the Scottish bench. There are two other changes among the replacements, with loosehead prop Gordon Reid and utility back Byron McGuigan in with a chance of featuring for the first time this campaign. 

If you look at the form book, then a Wales win looks likely, but, it is possible that Scotland still have a sting in the tail. We only have to turn the clock back 12 months to remember Scotland’s last big win in the Six Nations at Murrayfield against England when they produced a monumental performance on the day. They can do certainly that again on Saturday, but they have to improve in many areas especially in defence. 

Scotland have just misfired so far. There has not been an intensity to their game so far this championship. There is a high risk that their championship could fizzle out by getting defeated in the last two games.

The huge distractions and turmoil in Wales this week will have no doubt unsettled the players and if Scotland build up a lead then it may be hard for Wales to raise their game again. The Welsh line out has been appalling despite the victories and the back row battle will be the key area. Whomever wins this will win the match. It’s a mouth-watering prospect. Ross Moriarty was an absolute beast against England whilst Jamie Ritchie leads the way in the Six Nations in terms of breakdown steals 

I believe Wales have just too much experience and power to lose this one. If they can build a platform then the Anscombe/Biggar axis at outside half can orchestrate an attacking Welsh back line and pick up another victory. Scotland have nothing to lose and Wales need to muster every ounce of mental strength in what has been a damaging week for rugby in the principality.

Scotland 16 Wales 24

England v Italy

England went into the crucial encounter in Cardiff with many expecting England simply to bulldozer Wales aside and record another win in Cardiff. But the game didn’t follow the script as England failed to dominate up front and their kicking game went disastrously wrong against Wales.

Owen Farrell had his worst game for England since the 2013 30-3 defeat against Wales. His decision making was poor and his kicking inept and inaccurate. Only a fool would have kept kicking high balls at Liam Williams given his aerial accuracy and England didn’t adjust, lost their cool and lost the match.

Perhaps one of the most disappointing aspects was the lack of impact from Manu Tuilagi. He really was only brought into the game in one attacking move where he successfully penetrated the gain line but other than that was never really in the game.

The England pack were well matched in the scrum by Wales and never really got the edge.  Tom Curry was the stand out forward on the field and his development continues to impress every match. Jones’ men seemed to lack any attacking potency at the Principality Stadium, and they were heavily reliant on their kicking game, which did not get them very far. 

Eddie Jones has selected an England team to play Italy on Saturday in their next Guinness Six Nations match showing five changes to the starting XV that played Wales a fortnight ago.

Joe Cokanasiga starts on the right wing for his fourth cap. The Bath wing made his international debut in the autumn, playing two Tests and scoring a try in each against Japan and Australia, while he featured off the bench against Wales in Round Three.

The 21-year-old winger is in from the start this weekend in place of the injured Jack Nowell in a powerful looking England side that also sees Ben Te’o recalled toe line up in the 2019 Championship for the first time at inside centre with Manu Tuilagi moving to outside centre.

Ellis Genge  starts at loosehead prop with Ben Moon shifting to the bench. Moon failed to gain the upper hand over Exeter team mate Tomas Francis in the last match, so his demotion is of no real surprise. 

Joe Launchbury is named in the second row following the injury of Courtney Lawes in Cardiff. Brad Shields  will start at blindside flanker with Mark Wilson named as a finisher.

Dan Cole and Nathan Hughes are both named as finishers having not been involved in England’s previous match against Wales. Henry Slade drops to the bench and there is no place for Maro Itoje who is still injured and unavailable for selection.

Defeat in Rome condemned the Azzurri to their 20th consecutive defeat in the tournament as Conor O’Shea searches for his first Six Nations victory. On the face of it, it may seem a continuation of losses, but the former Ireland international is attempting to make wholesale structural changes throughout Italian rugby, the fruits of which may not be seen at the top level under his watch. 

Italy have finished ahead of Ireland in the last two World Rugby U20 Championships and Leinster’s closest challengers in Conference B of the Pro 14 are the ever-improving Benetton. Italy come into the game at Twickenham on the back of 20 successive Six Nations, but their confidence is high following competitive February performances against Scotland, Wales and Ireland.

But for a missed kick in the game’s final action, they would have secured a losing bonus point in their last outing versus the Irish.

Ill-discipline has been a continual problem for the Azzurri. Italy, who conceded 14 penalties to Ireland's nine, were heavily penalised by referee Glen Jackson.   Italy might have justified complaints about the referee, but had they been a bit more disciplined, they would have won the game over Ireland. Italy were spirited and had they turned over Ireland for the first time since 2013, it would have been a fair result. But they still must look inward for the answers.

One area where they have found the right answer has been the line out.  Clearly Conor O’Shea’s side have been doing their homework because their success rate of 93.1% on their own ball is backed up by the fact that they have also claimed nine lineout steals and counting. The most in the Championship so far and a whopping 20% success rate on opposition ball.

Conor O’Shea makes three changes to his starting XV for the visit to Twickenham  and they all come in the pack

Captain Sergio Parisse returns from the head injury that ruled him out against Ireland and starts at No.8 winning his 137th cap. Parisse had missed the defeat with Ireland last time out through injury but is fit to reclaim his place at No.8, while Sebastian Negri is also recovered from illness to join him in the back row.

The only other change to the team is at hooker where Luca Bigi gets his first start of the Championship in place of Leonardo Ghiraldini, who drops to the bench having captained the team last time out.

Parisse and Negri’s returns mean that Jimmy Tuivaiti and Maxime Mbandà drop out of the side, as Braam Steyn switches from No.8 to openside, with Gloucester Rugby flanker Jake Polledri the only new face on the bench as he prepares for his first match of the Championship after he was declared fit after recovering from injury.

Two years ago, Conor O’Shea caused England plenty of problems with their no-ruck tactics at Twickenham, but it’s hard to see what rabbit he can pull out of the hat this time around to cause any English hearts to flutter faster.

England were hugely impressive in the opening two rounds and it’s easy to panic after the reversal in Cardiff, but they are going largely down the right path. Although it is highly unlikely there will be a complete revolution of the team in a fortnight, particularly as England had performed so well up until round three, there is room for obvious improvement and a big win against the Azzurri could be just the ticket.

Eddie Jones has persistently said that there is a lot more to come from his England team, and they are still very rough around the edges. Their performance against Wales was clear that there is a lot of work to do.

I really don’t see anything other than a massive statement of intent from England and a large hammering for the Italians. England can still win the Six nations title as they will be looking to add two more victories with bonus points from their remaining games which are both at HQ. England will win this with a bonus point is a very comfortable manner. 


England 50 Italy 10

Ireland v France

The final match will be on Sunday afternoon in Dublin where France will travel to face the Irish. Ireland made significant changes for the trip to Rome and the result was not as emphatic as many expected. It is easy to forget that Ireland claimed a bonus point win such was the error-strewn 80 minutes and downbeat reaction. 

But one bad games does not make a bad team. Wales were equally uninspiring in the Italian sunshine and for Ireland, in 12 visits to Italy - the first in 1995 immediately prior to professionalism - the average score line reads 31-17 in Ireland's favour. That is roughly Ireland outscoring the hosts four tries to two, which is what was achieved in Round 3.

Since the Azzurri joined the competition, the away day trips have more often than not been sticky affairs for the men in green. Sure, there have been some exceptions. The 2017 visit saw Ireland rack up 63 points, while 10 years previous, Ireland also put up more than a half century of points in the Italian capital.

A nervy Ireland managed to avoid a massive shock as they scraped past Italy to keep their slim Six Nations chances alive. Ireland need to claim bonus-point victories against France and Warren Gatland's grand slam chasers and hope other results go their way in order to retain their title.

On the evidence of that performance that must be considered a long shot.
Tries from Quinn Roux, Jacob Stockdale, Keith Earls and Conor Murray undid a spirited Italy. The champions' performance was riddled with mistakes as they conceded 15 turnovers and lost five lineouts, leaving Schmidt with more questions than answers from a game where he rested captain Rory Best and lock James Ryan.

Ireland were nervy in the opening stages and racked up four unforced errors before the eighth minute. It was never going to be a Roman holiday but the current Grand Slam champions, who reached such magnificent heights in last season's campaign and produced a near flawless performance against New Zealand just three months ago, look a shadow of that team today.

The swagger, the confidence, the belief, all clearly missing. They look like a team under pressure. The vaunted half-back pairing of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton are making uncharacteristic errors and the rest of the team are following suit. 

As Rugby Raconteur goes to press the Irish team has not been named. There are however a number of changes expected to Joe Schmidt’s line up. Sean Cronin and  Robbie Henshaw are both already excluded from the training squad and it looks that the game will come too soon for Joey Carbery.

Hooker Cronin started his first Six Nations game against Italy in round three but failed to take his chance and Ulster's Rob Herring is included alongside captain Rory Best and Niall Scannell. Joe Schmidt has bene boosted by the news that several players are returning to fitness.

CJ Stander started the opening game of the Championship against England, but then missed wins over Scotland and Italy with a facial injury. He has rejoined the squad now though and could come into contention to face France.

In Carbury’s likely absence, Ross Byrne, the Leinster fly-half who made his Test debut away to Australia last summer, is another who comes into the squad. The 23-year-old is yet to make his Championship bow but could be the understudy to  Johnny Sexton this Sunday. 

Elsewhere Kieran Marmion is also back in, while Rob Herring is included as one of three hookers alongside skipper Rory Best and Munster’s Niall Scannell.
Ireland have bounced back from their opening day loss to England with back-to-back away wins in Scotland and Italy.

France will be encouraged by the ways their young players performed against Scotland. Whilst its clear, Les Bleus are certainly not the force they once were - they have inexplicably rolled over to have their bellies tickled by a number of teams in recent years - but that never seems to be the case against Ireland.

In fact, when it comes to this particular fixture; the French have been very consistent indeed. Since their heavy 2010 defeat in Paris, when Ireland’s hopes of a second successive grand slam were dashed, it has been an almost even contest.

In the 11 subsequent games, Ireland shade the head-to-head 5-4, with two draws highlighting the nature of the contests. The average winning margin in that time is less than five points.

The worry for Ireland will be that the seemingly rudderless France appear to be improving. Admittedly the only way was up after the abject abysmal display at Twickenham, but head coach Jacques Brunel, even by simply picking players in their more accustomed positions, has his side playing with a bit more conviction.
The TMO ruled out four possible tries in Paris, but they still blew Scotland away with ease.

Doubts will remain until they put away one of the big hitters, but in Dublin against an Irish side a little low on confidence, would be a step in the right direction.

Romain N’Tamack looks like a player who will spend a long career in the blue jersey, whatever number is on his back, while scrum-half Antoin Dupont could be a game changer for the French.

Veteran No.8 Louis Picamoles has also been a key part of their revival in fortunes. His 44 carries and six offloads in the three rounds are the most of any player this year so far while Yoann Huget’s six linebreaks make him an attacking force to be reckoned with.

So, it’s no surprise that France head coach Jacques Brunel has named an unchanged team to face Ireland, keeping faith in young half-backs Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack.

Continuity is the name of the game for Jacques Brunel.

Following defeats by Wales and England in the opening two rounds of this year’s Championship, Les Bleus sparkled in Paris last time out to beat Scotland 27-10 – maintaining a 20-year home winning streak against the Scots in the process.

Unsurprisingly, Brunel has kept faith with the same 23 players that served him so well in Round Three as they head to Dublin for a tough test against reigning Grand Slam winners Ireland.

That means the exciting young half-back pairing of Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack that galvanised the French backline at the Stade de France remains, as does 23-year-old full-back Thomas Ramos – who will also take on kicking duties.

Outside half Ntamack, 19, and 22-year-old scrumhalf Dupont put on a very exciting and promising performance in the victory against Scotland in the previous round, and the pair will be put to test again at the Aviva Stadium.

Cedate Gomes Sa and Sébastien Bézy had been called up to the wider squad in place of the injured Uini Atonio and Morgan Parra this week but neither has cracked the unchanged matchday group.

Guilhem Guirado skippers the side once more from hooker, with Jefferson Poirot and Demba Bamba either side of him in the front row as France look to improve a recent record that has seen them win just one of their last eight clashes with Ireland, home or away.

Félix Lambey and Sébastien Vahaamahina are the locks, while the in-form trio of Wenceslas Lauret, Arthur Iturria and Louis Picamoles will do battle with an impressive Irish back row.

Gaël Fickou and Mathieu Bastareaud renew their partnership in the centres, while Yoann Huget and Damian Penaud complete the back-three alongside Ramos.

With Ireland expected to rely on Jonathan Sexton and Conor Murray's kicking game to unsettle the French, the 23-year-old Thomas Ramos will again start at fullback.

Scrum half Morgan Parra, who along with flyhalf Camille Lopez had been omitted for the Scotland game after criticising the management, has been ruled out due to injury. Lopez does not feature in the team, either.

Ireland need to rely on their strengths and must not get drawn into an open game against France. France’s best chance of troubling Ireland in Sunday’s Six Nations clash in Dublin is to coax Joe Schmidt’s men into an open game.

Having perfected a successful style for the Grand Slam, series win in Australia and victory over New Zealand in 2018, there is a feeling that Ireland have been figured out and that they must introduce a new game plan.

That sense was driven by the opening day defeat to England the two subsequent wins over Scotland and Italy that failed to convince.

France can be dangerous on the ball; their open-field stuff is unstructured, so when Ireland kick they will definitely need to kick accurately. The revived French game looks to be largely based  on the game perfected in the Top 14 by Toulouse from counters and turnovers. Ireland will be very aware that is where the danger is.

I see a tight encounter and France will feel they have a real chance of an upset. Ireland have been underwhelming but with experienced players returning, I don’t see Joe Schmidt’s team losing again at home so an Ireland victory but not by much.

Ireland 23 France 20