Round 4 of the 2012 RBS Six Nations sees two tight games and a real test of strength and belief in the third game. Who will be the winners and losers in this weekend’s matches?
WALES v ITALY
Wales will go into this match with the weight of the nation’s expectations upon them. It is clear the Welsh public believe that another Grand Slam is on the cards and Wales will have a nervy time against Italy in Cardiff. I have to admit some surprises in the Welsh selections. Matthew Rees becomes the third Welsh hooker to start this championship. This is a clearly a weak area for Wales and the poor line out stats clearly show this. Wales have now used 5 hookers in the past 12 months. I am glad to see Rees return but his lack of match fitness will be a real test. The Welsh front row has been outstanding this season and Gethin Jenkins becomes the third player to captain Wales this tournament. He and Adam Jones have been dominating front rows and I see Wales having a stiff test but should again been too strong up front for Italy. With Same Warburton carrying an injury, Justin Tipuric gets another chance at 7. He played very well in Dublin and is a solid replacement that will maintain Wales back row dominance they have shown against all sides this season. Jamie Roberts is a real surprise selection. Injured against England, I would have thought Wales need him fit and well to play France and Scott Williams will be bitterly disappointed not to start especially after his try against England. Italy looks a team in disarray and when your captain already writes you off in the press, and then it is difficult to see much of a threat. Italy were quite simply awful; against Ireland and Wales will have no difficulty against the Azzuri. Lo Cicero will cause some problems in the front row and will earn his 94th cap. Burton has been hesitant and weak at kicking all season and if he does the same aimless kicking game against Wales then North and Cuthbert could run riot through the pedestrian Italian backs. Wales by a cantor.
Wales 30 Italy 9
IRELAND v SCOTLAND
Last chance saloon for the Scots and their ailing coach Andy Robinson. Scotland have been bitterly disappointing and it is difficult to see them triumphing in Dublin. Having said that, the same was true two years ago when the Scots pulled off a shock win in Dublin. This season, Scotland really have been disappointing in attack despite some stand out performances by individuals in the pack. Denton and Gray have been very strong all season and have been the stand out players for Scotland. In the absence of O’Connell, Ireland’s line out may falter and that could give Scotland reasonable ball. De Luca was the best Scottish player against France and the exciting Hogg also gets another outing at Full back. For Ireland, Rory best – a true Ulsterman through and through – will wear the Captains band in Dublin. A well deserved honour for the most consistent home nations hooker. Losing Conor Murray is a big blow to quick Irish ball and their backs haven’t exactly set the world alight apart for the defensive running of Kearney and Bowe’s lively pace on the wing. Earls has looked slow and cumbersome, Darcy looks past his sell by date for me. Ireland will be confident after running France so close but really they should have won in Paris. Expect the Irish to be too tricky for the Scots and I expect a narrow but decisive Irish win.
Ireland 23 Scotland 19
FRANCE v ENGLAND
England will take real heart form their performance against Wales. They have a fantastic record in Paris and I think England will once again triumph over a misfiring French side. England have struggled to get a real attaching platform all tournament but the return of the beast – Tuigali – against Wales showed everyone they have a good chance to break open defenses. Farrell looks assured and confident at 10, Barritt strong in defense at centre and Strettle quick and elusive once he gets the ball. I am surprised that Ashton gets another game as he has looked clearly out of form and confidence. In the pack, England were taught a lesson in back row play by Wales but the English second row is starting to come to form. Botha was good against Wales – his best game in a white shirt – and England can cause issues assuming a solid platform. As for France, their front row will cause England some heartache and if England can’t contain the French back row then they will have real problems. However, the French defensive set up looks very suspect. It was a real shambles against Ireland and one cannot see it improving in 7 days. Why drop Parra? A very odd decision. Beauxis has come on the field in the past two games and shown nothing to inspire confidence. Outside Half looks a real talent gap and weak area in France at the moment and whilst Trinh-Duc is hardly inspirational; he is a far better player than the ponderous and slow Beauxis. A very strange decision to change halfbacks. Aurelien Rougerie has kept his place despite some very poor judgement against Ireland and erratic passing. England will target him and hope to follow Tommy Bowe with another interception try. I really don’t get the French selection logic. England must have been rubbing their hands with glee as the French selection was announced and they will be hoping their confidence self-destructs again. I believe England will cause a lot of French penalties and will build on their strong defensive showing against Wales. Another English triumph in Paris!
France 16 England 19
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