Final Weekend – All to play for!

Final Weekend – All to play for!

What a great tournament the 2012 RBS Six Nations has been! One of the classics with many close and tense encounters and a very high standard of rugby being played. It is sad in some ways then that it has to end but we have a final weekend to savour with three outstanding fixtures to look forward to. I have been running at 66% prediction rate this tournament. Not great but better than many of the newspaper columnists so lets assess how the runners and riders line up for the final furlong:

ITALY v SCOTLAND

Wooden Spoon game as predicted with Scotland with their backs against the wall with a tense finale in the Stadio Olympico. The scots showed good form for 60 minutes of last weekend’s encounter in Dublin but fell away badly in the final quarter. Richie Gray has been the stand out 2^nd row all season and Scotland will need to rely on him winning lots of line out ball and then get their mobile back row tearing forward. De Luca will add steel at Centre with Max Evans returning to the wing. It will all be settled up front and Scotland will struggle in scrums and they have to starve Italy of any ball to have a chance. Italy by contrast have been very good at frustrating teams – Wales being the latest to find Italy hard to break down. They have a world-class back row and that is where they will want to front up and take the game to Scotland. Burton is retained at Outside half and his form and standard has been woeful all tournament. Italy have to drive it through eth pack and grind Scotland down. Andy Robinson will be nervously pacing up and down and will have no fingernails left at the end. Scotland to hang on in a tight game.

Italy 16 Scotland 18

WALES V FRANCE

The big one and championship decider. Wales need to lose by 20 pts and England win by 20 pts to deny them the title. That looks unlikely but will Wales have the mental strength to handle winning what would be there third Grand Slam in 8 seasons? The answer is an emphatic YES! France have nothing bur pride to play for having had two successive poor home performances. They got off to slow starts against both Ireland and England and paid the penalty – so a fast start is essential here. More chopping and changing see 5 changes with Yachvili getting the nod at scrum half and Beauxis at outside half. Some odd changes see Fofana on the wing and Florian Fritz recalled at Centre. Strange as France don’t seem to have the defensive strength to make changes like this at this stage. The French three quarters have been all at sea and a bit Marie Celeste in the defensive line and tackling department. They will struggle with power and flair of the Welsh backs. Up front, it’s a different story and the recall of Servat and the giant Attoub will be looking to disrupt the Welsh Lion’s front row. A tight battle in back row will mean the winning team will be the one with the majority of possession. For Wales, the return of Captain Warburton is a major boost. The Welsh back row is truly world class with only Australia and New Zealand close to having the abilities in defence and attack shown by Lydiate, Faletau and Warburton. Tipuric is unlucky to not even make the bench but Ryan Jones – for many the unsung hero of this welsh side offers more options and will undoubtedly see some action in the second half. The Welsh are still bruised by their World Cup loss to France and will have a point to prove. I think Wales will dominate the play but will once again struggle to convert it to points. Goal kicking will be critical for both teams. A lot of pundits have said Wales have got worse as the tournament has progressed. I don’t agree. Wales have learned to win ugly and that is how great teams are built. Gatland will be playing down all the hype and Wales will have the home crowd to see them home. Expect Welsh backs to be flying but a tighter score line than many think. Welsh Grand Slam!

Wales 18 France 16

ENGLAND V IRELAND

The luck of the Irish! Or in this competition the un-luck of the Irish! Ireland were desperately close against Wales and should have shut France out in Paris. They dominated the weaker teams Scotland and Italy and have the psychological advantage of winning 7 of the last 8 six nations encounters against England. The excellent Donnacha Ryan has meant that they haven’t missed O’Connell. The Irish line out has shown largely metronomic precision and they will want to win as much ball as possible. O’Brien returns to the back row in the only change from the win over Scotland. Sexton has had a quiet Six Nations and is due a big game. It will be very interesting to watch and compare Sexton and Farrell. Both look likely Lions selections and who has the better game on Saturday could decide the match. The Irish centres have badly missed Brian O’Driscoll and England will be looking to unleash Tuigali and get their backs moving to prize open a small advantage. Robshaw and Croft were both excellent against France and England will be looking to ram home an advantage at the break downs, as both packs look evenly matched. Very even in front row, Ireland having the better boiler room and England having the better back row. Dickson needs a good game and get quick ball to Farrell. Foden will be again solid in the back three and England will give this a real good go. A win and Lancaster will be a shoe in for full time coach. I think the game will be very tight and who will be the hungrier team – more eager to win? I think Ireland are marginally the better side and will scrape home to break English hearts once again at HQ.

England 19 Ireland 22