Italy v Wales
The Rome sunshine has a habit of causing problems for Wales and is the only place where Italy have won any matches. I have been very critical of Wales this season but I cannot fault the way they shut out Scotland at Murrayfield. A totally dominant performance and the defensive performance was truly world class. Hook was much more effective at No.10 but will return to Centre for this encounter. The re-emergence of Jamie Roberts was good to see and Sam Warburton was outstanding at Flanker. The Welsh back row of Lydiate, Ryan Jones and Warburton look world class and the fact and they will cause Italy a lot of problems. Wales have to attack form the start and starve Italy of possession. They will certainly front up in the pack and Wales's talents behind the scrum should see Wales home. Italy were desperately poor against England and were frankly blown away at Twickenham. They will be stronger at home and I expect a close game. Parisse was the sole Italian player to really make an impact last match. Kris Burton at Outside Half is a weak link for me and you can't see Italy doing anything expect penalties or a forward dominated try. If Wales come out firing from the start with confidence high after the win in Scotland, then I fully expect Wales to avoid more heartache and win in the sunshine even by a narrow margin.
Italy 16 Wales 23.
England v France
The big one and the championship decider. England looked awesome in battering the Italians and Ashton ran riot with 4 tries. He will face a sterner test up front but will welcome the return of Andrew Sheridan to face up against the brutal French scrummage. England otherwise have a very settled side although Lewis Moody continues to be absent. The key battle will be upfront and whoever dominates that sector of the game will take the spoils. I expect lost of penalties so kickers will be critical and England have the edge here. Flood has been the player of the tournament so far for me and his confidence is high. France scrambled to a victory against the Irish but are leaking tries every game. England will rip them open and I fully expect Ashton and Cueto to both run riot especially since Maxime Medard has had to pull out. The recall of Chabal shows France want to mix it up in pack and Clerc and Jauzion will cause problems to England's static midfield duo. France also have the bench but England are on a roll and in the end I expect them to win fairly comfortably this time.
England 26 France 17
Scotland v Ireland
What happened? Scotland who looked so positive in attack and defence against France fell apart against Wales and showed no capability in either area. What was even more worrying for Scotland was the invisibility of their back row. Dan Parks pays the price form one too many weak performance and I welcome the introduction of young Ruaridh Jackson at Fly half is a bold statement. Scotland need steel in their side as they run the risk of sinking from a second in the championship to a wooden spoon decider with Italy, Paterson recalled at full back will stabilize the back line. Mike Blair will be a low risk option at half back with young Jackson, and Bettie and Moray Low will add new vigour to their stuttering pack. For the Irish, the narrow defeat against France will give them renewed confidence. The return of Tommy Bowe is a welcome boost in a lethal threequarter line but I cannot understand the logic of recalling O'Gara and Reddan. Looks like the usual Irish return to their dads army past. The Irish will struggle in the front row and will be evenly matched in the forwards but you have to favour the Irish as Scottish confidence looks shot at the moment.
Scotland 6 Ireland 28
:-( Not looking forward to sitting at Twickenham in a few weeks with my brother gloating as Scotland get stuffed out of sight. Where did the imagination shown in France go....
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