Saturday, February 12, 2011

Week 2

The first week went essentially according to the script. The only surprises were Wales running England far closer than anticipated and Italy almost toppling Ireland. Scotland showed their potential by scoring 3 tries against the French. France looked awesome on attack but fragile in defence.

So lets look at how the teams will do in Week 2:

England v Italy

The Italians will be up for this one after their very strong showing against the Irish. Changes at half back should help them get the ball moving quicker for the azzuri but it is yup front where the battle will be won or lost. England did not have it all their own way in Wales. Paul James taught Dan Cole a scrummaging lesson and he may well have a tough time again today. The loss of Sheridan is a big loss and the English second row also look like having a difficult time. At half backs, England dominated the Welsh completely and if they had decent centres - they could be World Cup winners. Why can't England produce good centres? They have a winger factory with Cueto, Ashton, Strettle and Sackey - good enough to grace any teams. The most exciting English centres aren't even English. Hape continues to disappoint and Ricky Flutey is still missing, means England have little strength in depth here. Tate has been tried and failed several times, Anthony Allen does well at club level but is not international class, and Hipkiss has gone backwards. That leaves England with HRH Tindall and slow ponderous back play. What we need is Youngs and Flood working directly with the wingers. That is one of the things that destroyed Wales. Italy need to get their back row in the game with the excellent Parisse and get their rolling maul going to the same effect as they did against Ireland. In the end England to win comfortably.
England 26 Italy 9

Scotland v Wales
Wales have had a disastrous run - 8 straight defeats and it isn't going to change this weekend. The Welsh have a poor record at Murrayfield - just 3 wins in 20 years. Last week the red dragon did far better than I anticipated but the half backs were completely out played and over shadowed by Flood and Youngs. Stephan Jones has paid the price but the ponderous, slow, over-rated Philips survives and that won't help Wales. Roberts was anonymous last week playing most of the game on the wing. hook didn't work at full back and is a high risk at 10. Byrne is out of form but at least should stabilize at the back. I would have liked to see Wales go with the Scarlets pairing of Knowle and Preistland, both exciting runners and prospects for the future. Expect both to be on 2nd half. Wales looked strong in the pack despite Craig Mitchell being destroyed by Sheridan. Paul James is one of the best loose head scrummagers and the Scottish front row will have another torrid time. Scotland looked exciting in Paris but were completely annihilated in the scrums with Murray and Jacobsen absolutely destroyed by the French props. The second row and back row battles will be key. Bradley Davies was very exciting for Wales as ball carrier with Lydiate and Warburton also looking great for the future. Scotland's Barclay and Brown are a match for anyone in back row and Kellock will want to win at home. It will depend who dominates possession and how good the kickers are as there will be lots of penalties. Scotland edge it. Scotland 32 Wales 29

Ireland v France
Lucky Ireland. So many errors in Rome. BoD and D'Arcy made more handling errors in 1 match than they normally do in a whole season. The pack were dominated by Italy and Declan Kidney will need to add belief into his misfiring team. France looked world class. Medard was truly outstanding and the interchangeable scrum halves of Yachvili and Parra give France lots of options. The pack look awesome. The front row can take anyone apart. However, things don't look so good in defence and France leaked three tries in Paris.Expect Ireland's talented back line to do similar damage when they get the ball. Sexton looks cool and controlled and I expect Ireland to bounce back but it will be close. Ireland 19 France 17

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