Six Nations 2014 Week 3 - Decisive Encounters

Halfway point through the 2014 Six Nations and Rugby Raconteur has hit the dizzy heights of 100% accuracy in results predicted although not in points scored or points difference.  Having said that, there have been some noticeable surprises in both the team performances and the results to date.

Ireland have had two impressive home wins. Victory over a stuttering Scotland was expected but the Irish surprised everyone with the ease of their convincing win over a tired looking Wales. Coach Joe Schmidt has impressed everyone with his technical vision and ability to alternate game plans – in deep contrast to the one dimensional “Warrenball” approach of Gatland at Wales. 

France are also unbeaten – after a narrow win over England, they were more impressing in beating the much improved Italy team in the last match. France are still not entirely convincing in all departments and we have yet to see if their Gallic flair will be carried over and continue on the road.

But lets not get carried away yet. The fixture mix giving both Ireland and France two back to back home games may not reflect the actual true playing strengths of either team.

Elsewhere, England are growing in confidence and building nicely through the tournament. One cannot be anything other than impressed by the way Stuart Lancaster is blooding new players and building a real team feeling in the Red Rose camp. Can it continue against the men in green?

Lets review this weekend’s fixtures:

Wales v France

Wales were just comprehensively beaten in every department against Ireland. They looked jaded and devoid of a plan B. The excuse that they have played too much rugby frankly doesn’t wash and it could simply be that Gatland and his coaching team have run out of ideas and don’t feel able to do a course correction with the current playing squad.

The Welsh forwards were comprehensively beaten in all areas by Ireland.  You simply cannot lose two attacking line outs against the throw in the Irish 22 and get bullied around the breakdown and hope to compete effectively. The lack of fitness of Gethin Jenkins was clear and Adam Jones just is not the force he was at tighthead prop. To be honest, I am disappointed that Gatland has not been more adventurous with his selections for the French match and that Adam Jones has been retained. The hair bear has been a massive servant for both Wales and the Lions but its time for him to hang up his boots. He is not going to last until the World Cup and Wales need to be bringing on some of their promising youngsters in the same way they did before the last World Cup.

Both Jenkins and Warburton had impressive games for the Blues last weekend and are both retained. Amazingly Dan Lydiate is retained in the back row despite two very poor games. He should have made way for Justin Tipuric as the Welsh back row looks much more explosive with Tipuric and Warburton on the flanks rather than the static defensive oriented Lydiate. Taulupe Faletau needs a solid game after a bitterly poor showing in Dublin and the Welsh line out will welcome the return of Charteris at the expense of the lightweight Andrew Coombs.

Mike Philips has looked poor ever since he moved to France and is rightly dropped in favour of the lively Rhys Webb. Dan Biggar must be very disappointed to miss out on selection and to retain Priestland at Fly Half when you have choices available beggars belief to me. Elsewhere as predicted in my pre-season brief; Wales finally put George North in the Centre with Jamie “Dr. Jaw” Roberts. Roberts was the one Welsh played to stand up in Dublin and I am very excited to see these two leviathans together in the Welsh midfield.

As for France, they have looked impressive with the ball in hand. Huget has stood out as one of the players of the tournament so far and this has timed itself well with the return of form of Wesley Fofana who was excellent against Italy.  The forwards have stood up well to both England and Italy – probably the two strongest packs – and along with Louis Picamoles. Yannick Nyanga has been very lively  in the back row. France centre Mathieu Bastareaud is retained at centre having recovered from a shoulder injury and France make one other enforced change with Flanker Bernard Le Roux, who suffered concussion in the 30-10 win against Italy, replaced by Racing Metro team-mate Wenceslas Lauret.

If France get their back line moving and secure good possession and the victory is there for the taking.

Wales must have a solid scrum, win their line outs and retain possession through the phases to have any chance against France. The French will concede lots of penalties and the off colour Halfpenny will need his kicking boots to give wales a chance.   Wales won’t play as badly again but I fear the lack of change in their line out will be an Achilles heel. I really don’t know what to call here. If France wins, then a Grand Slam is within their sights. If Wales lose, then I fear further embarrassment against England and even possibly Scotland in the final match.

We don’t know which France will turn up. Wales have a dreadfully poor record in Friday night games losing their last two in the Six Nations – England in 2011 and France in 2010.  Too close to call but I think Wales will scrap home.

Wales 19 France 17

Italy v Scotland

Wooden Spoon match in Rome and Italy will be looking to poor one further agony for Scotland. I really don’t know what is going on with the selection decisions in Edinburgh. Kelly Brown selected as Captain and then discarded after the Dublin debacle. Richie Grey dropped for the match day 23 and then re-instated for this match, and now the excellent Dave Denton is incredibly dropped for this crucial encounter. It defies all selection logic and despite keeping the English score down at Murrayfield, Scotland ended pointless with a toothless attack and few players enhancing their reputations.

Ross Ford pays the price for two poor games and is rightly dropped. Grey will add more experience to the pack and the recall of Johnny Beattie at No.8; whilst – I believe is a retrograde step; at least adds a player with experience and leadership.  Scotland will try to keep Italy at bay in the forwards and try to get their line out more consistent and find some ray of optimism to build on but its hard to be optimistic given the abject form shown so far in the tournament.

As for Italy, two away trips have been a difficult start for them but they have impressed many with their strong showings against both Wales and France. Sergio Parisse has been in outstanding form and the Italian pack - whilst perhaps not the scrummaging force of other years; has been solid and workmanlike. They will be sweating on the fitness of Castrogiovanni and Bergamasco.

What has been different has been the fact that Italy has discovered a back division.  Tomasso Allen has been a revelation at Fly half with strong performances in the backs from McLean, Iannone, Campagnaro and Sarto. Italy looks much more like a “proper” 15 man team rather than the 10 man rugby of old.

It is difficult to see Scotland raising their game and Italy blowing theirs. Italy by a large margin. More heartache and a wooden spoon for Scotland.

Italy 28 Scotland 14

England v Ireland

Last and by no means least – the main event – England v Ireland. Rugby Raconteur has backed England to win this year’s title and despite the (predicted) narrow defeat in Paris, I see no reason to change that viewpoint. The England performances so far have been a work in progress.  The new starters Nowell and May have had impressive games and look like great finds. Billy Vunipola has looked very powerful at No.8, Mike Brown has bossed games from full back and Danny Care has been the stand out England player, growing in maturity every match and providing fast service to Farrell and the three-quarters.

In the Centres, Burrell has grown in confidence every match and has been a strong performer in every game.  Billy Twelvetrees was much more confident against Scotland after a poor game against France.  I am pleased to see the exciting George Ford get a bench call up and he can add another dimension to the play in the latter stages as Ireland tire.

In the forwards, the loss of Dan Cole is a big one, as his replacement David Wilson has not shown good form or fitness this season. England need a solid scrum and a metronomic line out to secure quality ball and then kick their penalties and get their exciting back line into the game. The tactical kicking game will be critical and the reliable Mike Browns will need to be on top form.  If England can secure their own possession and kick well, then the game is as good as won.

So to Ireland, they comprehensively beat Wales by out thinking them. They simply kicked Wales back to their own half of the field, defended well, and then took their chances. Their back row of Peter O’Mahoney, Chris Henry, and Jamie Heaslip dominated the breakdowns against Wales and Ireland were unstoppable with their rolling maul when on attack.  That does not mean they are not beatable. One win over a one dimensional Wales does not a champion make. Ireland were poor in the first half against Scotland. They only came alive second half when Scottish heads were down and stamina fading.  If the England pack gets in their faces then they could struggle.

Jonny Sexton has been supreme in controlling games and Rob Kearney has been back to top form. In the front row Cian Healy and Mike Ross have been very solid and Ireland also have two other impressive props in Martin Moore and Jack McGrath – all of whom could give England a torrid time in the scrums.

Twickenham holds no fear for Ireland who have had narrow wins in 2004, 2006, and 2010. England need to stick to the basics and hope the Twickenham crowd can carry them home. England by 3 points.

England 29 Ireland 26

SIX NATIONS 2014 WEEK TWO - FORWARD MOMENTUM

The first weekend of the 2014 Six Nations proved to be a good one for Rugby raconteur with 3 accurate predictions. The pick of the matches being the clash of the titans in Paris between France and England. As predicted, these two teams look like the teams to beat in this year’s championship.

Elsewhere, a lacklustre Wales stuttered to a narrow win over an improving Italy in Cardiff and Ireland predictably put Scotland to the sword on Sunday in Dublin. One playing position stood out to me as the highlight of the weekend and it's a position without a name just a number – the No.8.

All three matches saw outstanding displays of some of the world’s best exponents of the back of the scrum loose forward play. In Paris, Louis Picamoles and the barnstorming Billy Vunipola were very impressive. If eth Toulouse giant Picamoles was the pick of the first half, then Vunipola’s break to set up Burrell’s final England try was equally breathtaking in its ferocity.

In Cardiff, Sergio Parisse showed why many believe (along with Keiron Reed) that he is the world’s best No.8. He was everywhere. In defence, in attack and played a real Captains’ role. Hard to believe the man has 101 caps. For Wales, Tulepa (‘Don’t call me Toby”) Faletau also was impressive, perhaps the pick of the Welsh forwards. His play around the breakdowns won Wales two crucial penalties and his ball carrying was also very impressive.

Last year, Jamie Heaslip lost the plot and had a poor tournament. So in Dublin, it was great to see him deservedly pick out the Man of the Match award. Again – a dominant display of the art of the No. 8. Dave Denton from Scotland also had a strong game and only the efforts of 3 Irish defenders stopped him from scoring in the first half. With hindsight, perhaps the one incident which swung the game towards Ireland.

Still – enough of week 1, let’s look forward to this weekend’s encounters:

IRELAND v WALES

Ireland looked strong and back to there best in beating a disappointing Scotland in the Dublin sunshine. Sexton and Murray bossed the halfbacks, and the Kearney brothers were the pick of the Three quarters. Rob Kearney in particular back to his best. Up front, the aforementioned Heaslip was backed up strongly by Cian Healy and the excellent Chris Henry. There were times when one was thinking Sean Who? Ireland not missing the injured Sean O’Brien.  Joe Schmidt has done a great job in a short time in turning Ireland around.

Wales looked rusty but lets not panic yet. The final score flattered Italy with their first try coming off a clear forward pass, and the second a good interception off sloppy predictable passing by Halfpenny. Roberts looked strong. North and Cuthbert didn’t really get in the game but are still very powerful and will cause Ireland some sleepless nights.  I thought the much-criticised Rhys Priestland had an excellent game. It hard for me to believe the vitriol he got on many forums and social media sites. The lad just can’t win.

This weekend’s clash will be won or lost in the pack. I am very excited to see how the two front rows measure up. Wales did not seem to cope well with the new scrimmaging changes and whether or not Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones can get the better of Healy and Ross could be decisive.

In the second row, Ireland are massively boosted by the return of Paul O’Connell while Alun Wynne-Jones was very impressive last week with both line out and ball carrying.  The back rows look evenly matched and penalty kicks will be crucial. The recall of Warburton was inevitable as Justin Tipuric looked lightweight and out of sorts last week. 

If Wales can keep the ball and find the space to get their huge backs moving then they can win the game. Last year, Ireland caught Wales asleep in the first half and never looked back despite a late Welsh come back.

The choice of Wayne Barnes as referee will be a concern for Ireland. Many will not forget his late penalty two years ago, which enabled Wales to sneak a narrow victory. The controversial Lions selections of Warren Gatland have made him a hate figure and Ireland will want to win desperately as the crowd has been baying for blood.

In the end – I don’t see Wales scoring two tries and that is what will be needed to win. Ireland to triumph again. I hope I am wrong on this one and the dragon  prevails...

IRELAND 23 WALES 19

SCOTLAND v ENGLAND 

What can you say about Scotland other than what a disappointment they were in Dublin. Kelly Brown has paid the price of failure and is one of three changes by Scotland with Chris Pisaro getting a debut cap and Matt Scott replacing Duncan Taylor at centre, with wing Tommy Seymour coming in for the injured Sean Maitland.

You simply can’t have 60% possession in the first half and not go in leading at half time. The loss of Sean Maitland is a big one and it is vary hard to see Scotland bouncing back despite their historic great record over England at Murrayfield. The Calcutta Cup is usually a great event, especially at Murrayfield where despite overwhelming odds, Scotland have a great record over the English.

Greig Laidlaw takes over the Captaincy and his metronomic boot may be all that keeps Scotland in it.  Stuart Hogg was one of the few bright spots of last week’s debacle and if he can get moving forward, then Scotland could possibly cause a few faster beating hearts in the English.

England were simply very unlucky in Paris. A slow start was damaging but Lancaster’s experimental side showed great heart and almost pulled off the win.  I am pleased to see Jonny May get another start and the young Exeter winger Nowell bounced back strongly to give a fine display after a mistake gifted France an early score. Mike Brown had his usual reliable game at full back and Danny Care laid down a strong marker at Scrum half to make the No.9 jersey his own with a strong display.

Elsewhere, the Centre combination of Twelvetrees and Burrell was a disappointment. I for one was calling for the combination and it didn’t work. Twelvetrees in particular, was disappointing. Maybe he just doesn’t have it at international level. He had two poor games in the autumn and this one wasn’t much better.

The Lancaster regime is certainly spotting talent early and his choice of three-quarters is unbelievable. England seem to have a winger factory and are producing some excellent talent.

In the forwards, Lawes has a strong game along with Billy Vunipola. If Scotland have any chance they have to win in the pack but it’s hard to see with the dropping of Kelly Brown and Richie Grey – a Lion in the summer – not even making the bench. Strange decisions in my eyes.

I see England running riot with at least 4 tries. A rout is on the cards I’m afraid.

SCOTLAND 9 ENGLAND 36

FRANCE v ITALY

Italy had a strong game in Cardiff and will be very difficult to beat in Rome. Parisse was the pick of the forwards as expected, but Italy now have an impressive back line with Centre Campagnaro grabbing the attention with two tries. At Tomasso Allen and Luke McLean were also impressive and if Italy can handle the Paris pressure then we could have a great match on the cards.

France were impressive but as usual, their penchant for giving away penalties and defensive weaknesses hurt them against England. Fofana was impressive despite tight marking and Huget had a great game on the wing. He was the scapegoat last year so it is good to see him also bounce back this year with a strong performance.  Jules Plisson had a mixed game at Outside half and needs to do better if we wants to retain the shirt long term.

Yannick Nyanga was marauding around the fringes against England and his ball carrying was very impressive. Veteran Pascal Pape will secure solid line out ball but overall in the pack, arguably, Italy may have the edge.

The Italian front row of Rizzo, Ghiraldini and Castrogiovanni will cause France some issues in the scrum and Italy need to secure as much possession as possible because with the ball in hand, the unpredictable French backs could boss the game.  I see a tight competition for much of the match but France should have the edge with the Home crowd behind them to sneak it. France by 2 scores.

FRANCE 26 ITALY 16

SIX NATIONS 2014 – THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Six Nations 2014 starts next weekend with this year’s competition looking to be perhaps one of the tightest ever. It is undoubtedly going to be a tournament where men will be asked to step up to another level as the pride of wearing your Country’s jersey on the field of battle draws near. The autumn international were disanointing for all of the Northern Hemisphere’s finest except for the proud red rose of England. Whilst we have seen constant bickering over European club rugby it is not time to put that aside and gird the loins for the world’s greatest rugby competition. Your correspondent is back aiming to be providing even more insightful views and punditry. Lets see how I see the teams will perform this championship:

ENGLAND

England had a strong autumn with a good win over Australia and a narrow loss to the All Blacks. They came into last year’s tournament with a similar strong autumn and challenged for the title. Will they keep the momentum going into this tournament with another strong championship? I have to say they will and are on track to have a strong World Cup squad for 2015, Last year England looked like the real deal going into Cardiff but flattered to deceive with a really bad day at the office. With hindsight, the cracks were there through the five rounds and a narrow scrapped win over Italy was followed by the capitulation in Cardiff.

How have they built since then? Well all is looking strong in most positions although Coach Lancaster must still have doubts over the halfbacks, centres, and hooker but have has a strong array of talent to choose from and the strength in depth should be on his side. Lets start with the backs.

The loss of Tuigali (again) is not perhaps the big loss it appears. I am not a fan of the smash/kill Centre tactics and if Lancaster plays his cards right he could have a very strong set of backs.  Mike Brown has been in scintillating form for the Quins, and he must start as the prime full back. That is unfortunate for the talented Alex Goode but Brown is a shoe in for me. On the wings, Chris, Ashton will scrap in due to the absence of the excellent Marlond Yarde and Christian Wade, whilst Jonny May of Gloucester shows good pace and finishing and Anthony Watson from Bath may well be the wild card choice, At centres, Jonathan Joseph has looked very strong and his absence through injury give Luther Burrell a real chance. The autumn combination of Joel Tomkins and Twelvetrees just didn’t work. I would like to see Lancaster put Twelvetrees and Burrell together but if not then Matt Hopper from Quins may well get the green light with either of Burrell or Twelvetrees at 12.

At Outside Half, Owen Farrell, has yet to show real consistency and if he doesn’t show early, then I believe Lancaster will blood the excellent George Ford. He has been very consistent for Bath and a real talent.

At scrum half; Ben Youngs will likely get the nod ahead of Care and Dickson. Noon of the three have impressed me this season and I think this is a problem area for England. The backs will need quick ball and none of the choices is inspiring.

In the pack, Hartley has shown more consistency with his throwing and so should get the nod ahead of Tom Youngs. England have a plethora of world class second rows but I think front row may have a few issues. With Corbisero’s absence, I have not been impressed with either Joe Marler or David Wilson although Dan Cole continues to grow in stature and Mako Vunipola, whilst strong in open play is still a questionable scrummager.  The Guv’nor Geoff Parling is a massive loss and with his long-term absence I expect Courtney Lawes and Launchbury to be the first choice if they stay fit.  In the back row Billy Vunipola and Tom Wood will join Captain Robshaw.

England has a fantastic record in Paris and has nothing to fear but I feel they will come up second best against the French. Wins will follow in all the other matches with revenge over Wales perhaps the sweetest. In the end if will come down to points and tries scored as England will tie on 4 wins.

Predicted Finish: 1^st but no Grand Slam

FRANCE

France were so bad last year it was frightening just how far they fell from grace. However, you can never write them off and they had a reasonable autumn running the All Blacks very close and blooding lots of new men.

The absence of Thierry Dusautoir is a massive loss and the French squad lacks experience with more new caps likely than any other team. The exciting Jules Plisson has been a revelation at Stade Français and must be the starter at 10. Remi Tales has also impressed this season and France for once look to have options at half backs. In the threequaretrs, Wesley Fofana and Florian Fritz look to continue their centre partnership and France, as always, have many talented wingers and full backs to choose from. Up front is where France will be questionable.

Louis Picamoles has not been in the best form and with Dusautoir out, Yannick Nyanga will have to take on a bigger role in the back three. The French scrum will be solid and will certainly test England, but expect lots of penalties and questionable fitness.

I believe France will finally put to bed their Stade de France horror record against England will follow that with a comfortable home win against Italy. The fixture fairy has been kind to les bleus with two home games but the freezing Friday encounter in Cardiff. Wales will win that encounter and then it is a tough trip to Scotland before Ireland to finish. Expect 4 wins and they will challenge England hard for the title. Bridesmaids again when the table is completed.

Predicted Finish: 2^nd

IRELAND

Last season, Ireland destroyed Wales in the opening game and then frankly fell apart. The lowest point coming with defeat to Italy.  New coach Joe Schmidt will go into his first Six Nations with the aim of restoring faith in the Irish side and there will be lots of pride for the men in green to rub Gatland’s nose in the dirt and embarrass Wales in Dublin.

The Irish provinces are again on fire in the Heineken Cup and they should have high confidence coming into the competition but they had a poor autumn other than against New Zealand, and injuries and age are taking their toll on the side. Schmidt needs to be bold with his selections. Ian Keatley may be a wild card choice over the ageing Sexton as Madigan is unproven at the highest level.

The loss of Sean O’Brien is a massive one in the pack as are Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls in the backs. Time for some of the younger players to come through and I expect Schmidt to make a few surprises with Ulster’s Craig Gilroy and Luke Fitzgerald likely to be the two wingers of choice. O’Driscoll still can’t forget his Lions omission and he has been in fine form.

Personally, I feel Ireland don’t have the strength in depth and are ageing rapidly. The excellent Robin Coupland has been man of the season at Cardiff Blues and Schmidt should give him a run out in at least one game. Heaslip has a lot to prove after a poor tournament last year and a mediocre Lions tour. It is hard to see Ireland worrying either England or France for the title. They open with an easy victory over Scotland before facing Wales at Dublin. A narrow win over Wales will be followed by a defeat to England, a win over Italy and more heartache with a loss to the French. Three wins and mid table mediocrity.

Predicted Finish: 4^th

ITALY

Italy had an excellent tournament last year with great wins over Ireland and France and a narrow defeat to England. They had a very disappointing autumn with heavy defeats to both Argentina and Australia. Sergio Parisse and his team will be keen to put that behind them and will entre this Six Nations full of optimism. Unfortunately it will not be fulfilled. They have not progressed sufficiently to challenge any of the top 4 nations and I fear they will have a disappointing competition.

The fixture draw has not been kind to them and they start with difficult away games to Wales and France. Two defeats before they host Scotland, which once again remains their most likely chance of any result. You really don’t see them winning in Dublin and England will have Championship spoils in their nostrils when they face up in Rome. So one win at best is what we can see.

The evergreen Parisse has passed his 100 caps and will be the rock again behind the team is built. The retirement of LoCicero and the ageing Bergamasco and Castrogriovani remain solid performers but time is catching up with them and it is critical they blood new players.  Tommasso Allen and Michele Camopagnaro look like good young prospects and lets hope they can bring their youthful exuberance to the tricolors.

Predicted Finish: 5^th  – One Win

SCOTLAND

Scotland had their best Six Nations for many years in 2013 but have really failed to kick on. Quite frankly they were absolutely dire in the autumn game against South Africa.

Coach Scott Johnson is talking a good game and he has had the good sense to make the excellent Kelly Brown as his Captain for this competition.  The losses of Tim Visser and Ewan Murray are big ones and Scotland will once again have to call on a dwindling number of ageing veterans. John Beattie and John Barclay will have to carry the team in many games. Dave Denton is not the player he was two years ago and Scotland may well struggle with the new scrum laws.

It is such a familiar looking squad with few new talents emerging. Weir and Laidlaw are solid if unspectacular at half backs and their threequarters are hard to break but will not out fear into the opposition in the same way that a Jamie Roberts does for Wales or a Brian O’Driscoll for Ireland. Expect dogged, grindy performances.

An opening trip to Dublin is not really the start the doctor ordered and that is followed by the auld enemy England. Scotland will be hoping for a cold wet day and a rusty England but I don’t see it. England just have too much talent.

Hard to see wins after that against France or Wales and Italy away will be their rourkes drift moment. No wins and a wooden spoon I’m afraid.

Predicted finish: 6^th Wooden Spoon

WALES

Wales once again look like a country and a team in total disarray. The civil war situation between the WRU and the regional teams is tearing the sport apart and they y have completely failed to stop the player drain to France with Leigh Halfpenny the latest to depart.

Again, a poor autumn and the Welsh Regions have a awful Heineken Cup. Sounds like déjà vu. Wasn’t this the same story last year?

Wales will be pushing for a third consecutive Six Nations title. They have had significant injury problems like all the squads but the depth is there to give them a fighting chance. With three home games, Wales will give a solid performance and may well yet be in with a shout of the title, early results will be key.

The return of Jamie Roberts is a huge boost as is the news that Jonathan Davies may also be back to face England and Scotland at the end of tournament. Captain Warburton has been a long term absentee but the excellent Tipuric will seize his chance and Wales still have huge riches.

I think Gatland will be bold with his selections. Halfpenney and Cuthbert are shoe ins but expect a surprise with either Liam Williams or Hallom Amos starting on the wing and George North at centre alongside Jamie Roberts. The outside berth is still open with a fag paper in-between Priestland and Biggar. Priestland for me with Mike Philips taking his customary scrum half role.

I the pack, injuries to Ryan Jones, Richard Hibbard and Gethin Jenkins will force changes whilst the stupidity of Ian Evans red card and 12 week ban is a another big loss. Wales will need to find heart as I fear their pack will be under a lot of pressure with a misfiring line out and creaking scrum.

A good win over Italy will be followed by a narrow defeat in Dublin. It is hard to bet against England winning at Twickenham but Wales should also win all there at home. Three wins then and 3^rd place.

Predicted Finish: 3^rd

Opening weekend’s predictions:

Wales 26 Italy 6

France 21 England 18

Ireland 32 Scotland 9

Final Thoughts - Six Nations 2013

The Tournament ended with Wales confounding all the critics to record back to back championship titles. Few would have seen that outcome after the torrid first 50 minutes of the Wales v Ireland opener which shows the unpredictability of this tournament and why we love it so much. After a slow start, your humble correspondent ended up with 10 correct predictions out of 15 - matching last year's 67% accuracy rate. Let's look back some of the highlights of the competition and some final thoughts and considerations as we await the British Lions this summer.

Never Write Off The Welsh!

I have to admit I am one of those who really didn't see Wales recovering after a dismal Autumn. They were simply caught asleep against Ireland and looked dishevelled and lacking even basic confidence. They came alive in the 2nd half of that match and simply drove on from that point becoming stronger with every game. The final match in Cardiff had the most amazing atmosphere - probably the best I've ever experienced. A tight first half was followed by the clinical demolition of England. Clearly the finest half of Welsh rugby for 40 years.  When you look at the stats - they were devastating in defence. No tries conceded in 4 matches is a massive endorsement of their defensive prowess. Currently the meanest in World rugby.

Wales were simply breathtaking in that last match. They dominated in every facet of the game and in Warburton and Tipuric they undoubtedly have forwards of huge talent. The return of Roberts to some form and the fast improvement of Cuthbert give Wales an awesome attacking edge too. Perhaps not the dashing flair of old but a new tough edged resilience  Leigh Halfpenny put in several fantastic performances and his work under the high ball was textbook perfect. He proves again that small men can still be influential in modern  game of giant threequarters and his kicking was (mostly) of metronomic accuracy.

We have been before and the onus is on the Welsh squad to kick on and become able to take their place at rugby's top table. Beating England must become an expected outcome not the only outcome in the mind of their fans and players. They after all just another team. What must follow now are regular wins over Southern Hemisphere sides. Can they learn and progress?  Wales will probably learn most from this summer's Lions tour with Welsh players undoubtedly forming the bulk of the lions squad.The next 12 months will be crucial.

As for the coaches, I was one who was heavily critical of their approach and preparation in the Autumn and for the opening game against Ireland. Robert Howley had to face a barrage of personal criticism and rose above it in triumph  Shaun Edwards is another who can hold his head up high after the bitter disappointment of missing out on the Lions tour. Deserved well done to all!

Bridemaids

As for England - they too will learn hard lessons from the game in Cardiff. England seemed to get worse through the Tournament - it was strange seeing a team winning matches but not scoring tries. After good wins over Scotland and Ireland  England had a wobble against France, that horror show against Italy was followed by a nightmare in Cardiff. What went wrong?

It is hard to find the answers. It isn't the coaching. Stuart Lancaster is a master tactician and he has a really strong back room with Catt, Rowntree and Farrell. If anything - I think England are probably over coached. they seem to lack the individual skills and brilliance of other sides.

Martin Johnson was a great believer in the 'game plan" and followed in a long tradition of England coaches who put perhaps too much thought into the game at the cost of not developing in individual skills and game awareness.   As several people said to me on Saturday - there was perhaps only one player on Saturday's performance who would have got in the Welsh side.  Compare the stuttering Chris Ashton against either North or Cuthbert. Youngs against Philips. Barritt against Roberts and you see what they mean. Twelvetrees is probably the only England threequarter who has sign of arrogant talent and guess what - he hasn't been picked. England choosing the boring Barritt ahead of him probably because he fits better into the "plan". Jack Rowell was the first of the modern coaches who lost the dressing room because they could not understand their coach. He was too intellectual. I think England are perhaps trying too hard.

Several players have had a marked drop in form. Parling and Launchbury were scarily good against New Zealand but badly dropped off the pace. Dan Cole has gone backwards and England have struggled for a solid front row platform. They have a young squad and they have the time to develop and grow into a great team but not yet. If they focus on their strengths, develop just a few raw talents World Cup 2015 looks a long way off but England will aim to peak and could have the last laugh picking up the Webb Ellis in 2 years. You read it here first....

Celtic Fringe

Scotland can take heart from a  campaign with two victories but little champagne sparkle. They put in a dogged shift against the Auld Enemy, blew away Italy, ground down Ireland and caused a few concerns against both Wales and France. In Hogg, Maitland and Visser - they have a back three of real quality but are let down by the Fly Half/Centre options available. They simply don't have the talent in the backs to compete at the highest level. Add a determined pack and a great goalkicker (Laidlaw) and Scotland can frighten anyone especially when they are written off. Kelly Brown has led with great effectiveness and heart and Scott Johnson has carried on where Robinson left off in developing a winning mindset and wins at home are certainly solid progress. Next season maintain some stability and away victories will be critical for them to progress.  A work in progress.

For Ireland - this looks like the end of an era. I think they felt they were on for another Grand Slam after effectively killing Wales for 50 minutes. They simply went backwards. Injuries showed that they don't have any real strength in depth. How can they get 3 teams to the Heineken Cup quarter finals when Wales had none and yet have such a bare cupboard bereft of real prospects? Healy and Ross were second best to most front rows. Heaslip and O'Brien should have been certainties on the plane for the Lions with Heaslip a likely test starter. But not after the tournament when both players will be lucky to make the squad - such is their fall from grace. They never dominated any team through their pack and look like a nation in decline. The fiasco of their coaching set up where Declan Kidney blundered this way through with no new contract on offer was bizarre and clearly unsettling for Irish morale.

With O'Driscoll likely to retire, he will be quickly followed by O'Connell , O'Gara, and D'Arcy. All big men to replace! Ireland always take too long to bring players through but it is even more noticeable that all Irish provinces have increased the numbers of foreign imports - such is their addiction to European success at club level. It will be a tough 24 months as an Ireland supporter. They need a new coach and challenge fast.

Viva Italia!

For me, the Six Nations finally became a tournament of Six Nations. Italy finally arrived. They now have two competitive club sides gaining more experience weekly in Rabo Direct and Heineken Cup. They have a great coach who is making a real difference and getting the Italians to believe they can compete and win.

They have now beaten every nation except England and they came mighty close to the upset to end all upsets at Twickenham. No longer just a forward dominated team either. Parisse and Zanni have been causing problems for a while - Parisse - the outright World best at No.8. Add two workman like players at half backs and unleash some great backs like McLean and Italy have truly arrived. Next season will be tougher with just two home fixtures but neither England or Scotland will relish the Stadio Olympico journey and Italy could even surprise away next season. Viva Italia - welcome to the top table.

Allez les Losers...

If Italy have arrived then what of France? They were simply shockingly bad. Selections simply beggared belief and several players looked uninterested and uncertain of what they were doing. France had a weak defence last season and it simply went from bad to worse. They made changes for England but just when they were competitive they made criminal substitutions bringing on inferior players and losing the plot totally.

I hope to never see Freddie Michalak on an international rugby field again. France have only one Outside Half - Trinh-Duc; and he is not World class. France have a fantastic domestic rugby competition but rather like English Football's Premier league - it is at the expense of developing their own players.  Only 4 of the 14 clubs have a french qualified outside half and there has been a increasing import of Georgian props, Welsh and English internationals, and Southern Hemisphere mercenaries. One has to fear for the future pour Les Bleus!

British Lions Test XV & Squad

With a short while until the Lions squad is chosen, I have picked my side based on current Six Nations form. It doesn't make pretty reading for English, Irish and Scots rugby fans:

15 - Leigh Halfpenny (Wales) - saw off challenge from Hogg and Goode who will also make the 37 man squad

14 - Alex Cuthbert (Wales) - not a certain choice especially at the Start of the tournament but a fantastic performance against England secures his place.

13 - Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland) - Australia will be fast, hard pitches and it will be a fitting end for one the World's all time greats.

12 - Jamie Roberts (Wales) - formed a terrific understanding with BoD last Lions and gets his place with a late flurry in last two matches

11 - George North (Wales) - under pressure from Zebo and Visser - just gets the nod

10 - Owen Farrell (England) - the best talent at 10. Biggar and Sexton also making the squad.

9 - Mike Philips (Wales) - not my type of scrum half but likely to be Gatland's. Conor Murray and Greg Laidlaw his back ups. No English Scrum half making the squad.

1 - Gethin Jenkins (Wales) - back at his brilliant best against Italy and England. Cian Healy and Ryan Grant the understudies.

2 - Rory Best (Ireland) - The most accurate line out thrower and a certain starter. Hibbard his understudy

3- Adam Jones (Wales) - the world's best tight head scrummager. Dan Cole his understudy

4 - Geoff Parling (England) - still the Guv'nor despite a weak tournament finish.

5 - Ian Evans (Wales) - phenomenal tacking and ball carrying. Richie Grey, Alun Wyn Jones and Donnecha Ryan the other Second Rows

6 - Chris Robshaw (England) - the Lions will need leaders on the field. Will be toughing it out with the Welsh flankers to make the starting line up. Tom Wood also making the trip

7 - Justin Tipuric (Wales)  - not the biggest but the fastest with fabulous passing skills

8 - Sam Warburton (Wales) - CAPTAIN - Sam has come through a tough time but will be selected as Lions Captain and will switch to No.8 to accomodate Tipuric. Faletau will be pushing him too

Squad: - these 15 plus:
11 Backs - Hogg (Scotland), Goode (England), Visser, Maitland (both Scotland), Zebo (Ireland),  Tuigali, (England), Davies,  Biggar (both Wales), Sexton , Murray (both Ireland) Laidlaw (Scotland)

11 Forwards - Healy, Ross (both Ireland), Grant (Scotland), Cole (England), Hibbard (Wales), Hartley (England), Wyn Jones (Wales), Grey (Scotland), Ryan (Ireland), Wood (England), Faletau (Wales)

15 Welsh
8 English
8 Irish
6 Scots

Rugby Raconteur will be back for Lions tour...See you soon!