Round one of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations had the rare occasion of all three home teams losing. Ireland coasted to an easy win over a hapless Wales. Warren Gatland had a massive wakeup call with the size of the task in front of him to turn the Men of Harlech around in a Timely manner to compete at the World Cup.
Likewise, Steve Borthwick’s bold new vision for England fell at the first hurdle with Scotland winning their third Calcutta Cup in a Row – the first time since 1972! Scotland were ferocious in the tackle and contact and England never looked comfortable.
France had a shock with a narrow win in Rome. France conceded 18 penalties and major improvement is required ahead of their trip to the Aviva Stadium. The Italians stood up and were counted. Wales, in particular; must be quaking in their boots at the thought of having to go to Rome to potentially avoid a wooden spoon.
After all that drama – round two promises some even more spectacular matches.:
Ireland v France
First up is the clash of the titans in Dublin. Ireland will be wanted to break a significant hoodoo as in the three meetings with France during Andy Farrell's reign, all three have ended in defeat.
It's now four years since the last Irish win against Les Bleus, a 26-14 win in the penultimate round of the 2019 championship, against a French side that looked to have finally bottomed out after years of decline.
Ireland’s comfortable win in Cardiff firmly re-established them as Six Nations favourites. Their bonus-point start to this campaign, and in particular the opening half of yesterday's 34-10 win against Wales feels like a real statement.
The 80 minutes was far from perfect, and their ill-discipline and kicking game in the third quarter gave Wales some real opportunities to come back but Ireland’s defence stayed resolute before Liam Williams yellow card eventually sealed Wales fate.
Ireland head coach Andy Farrell has made one change to his side as Dan Sheehan has been ruled out for the visit of the Grand Slam champions after suffering a hamstring injury, with Rob Herring taking his place in the starting XV.
The rest of the team is unchanged from last week’s win in Cardiff, while Rónan Kelleher returns to the replacements’ bench after missing last week’s win with a hamstring injury.
Finlay Bealham and Andrew Porter resume propping duties, with Porter, James Ryan and replacement loosehead Dave Kilcoyne all in line to win their 50th caps at the Aviva Stadium.
Ryan and Tadhg Beirne are paired again in the second row, with Iain Henderson held in reserve, while it's an unchanged back row of Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris.
Conor Murray starts at scrum half having reportedly been a doubt in recent days, while Johnny Sexton captains the side after missing the last two meetings with France due to injury.
Stuart McCloskey is again preferred as the centre partner for Garry Ringrose, with Bundee Aki among the replacements, while Mack Hansen, James Lowe and Hugo Keenan complete the side.
For France – that game in Rome will be hard viewing. France will be relieved to get this one out of the way and take a bonus-point win with them, but at the back of their minds there will be great concern over the number of recent matches where they’ve had to play their get out of jail card. Ireland, Wales, Australia, and South Africa last year all saw wins but ones that might have gone either way right down until the end.
An unusually ill-disciplined display from Les Bleus saw them haemorrhage 19 penalties, mostly around the breakdown, and led to them receiving their first yellow card in 14 matches.
As with their match against Japan in November, France had to rely upon bench impact and a moment of great finishing from Matthieu Jalibert to get them home. Romain Taofifenua, Sekou Macalou and Jalibert all had moments of difference – Jalibert’s try was as a result of a wonderful pass and take from Taofifenua and Macalou made one vital penalty winning turnover effort in the 72nd minute with Italy in full flight down the left hand side.
The players they replaced – Gregory Alldritt, Paul Willemse and Romain Ntamack, are all mainstays of the French starting line-up but all three looked way below their best – there’s little chance of Alldritt and Willemse losing their places but the debate in France over the fly-half berth is sure to reignite with the country divided over who of Jalibert or Ntamack is the better game controller.
Given this background, it was surprise that has Head coach Fabien Galthie has retained faith in the side who narrowly edged Italy in Rome last weekend with an unchanged starting line up.
Galthie has drafted in back row Francois Cros and scrum-half Baptiste Couilloud as replacements for Thomas Lavault and Nolan Le Garrec, respectively.
Farrell's side have now won each of their last 12 home games, and another victory this weekend would see them set a new national record of 13 on the bounce, although it is worth noting that France were the last team to beat them in Dublin - doing so in the 2021 Six Nations.
Even so, Ireland's longer record of 21 wins from their last 22 home games is a formidable one which should pose a serious threat to France's own record winning run of 14 Tests on the bounce.
Italy had their chances to record a famous triumph even after Matthieu Jailbert's try, though, earning three late penalties which yielded zero points in the closing stages of the match.
Indeed, that the Azzurri got so close to pulling off one of the all-time great Six Nations upsets was largely down to penalties, with France conceding a whopping 18 throughout the match - a very un-Shaun Edwards-like tally and one France have not surpassed in a game in this tournament for 20 years.
Italy conceded 11 penalties fewer than their visitors - one of the biggest penalty differentials ever seen in a Six Nations match - and if the same happens in Dublin then it would take a miraculous attacking performance to counteract that.
The importance of France improving their discipline is further underlined by the fact that four of their last five wins have been by margins of just five points or fewer, meaning that one penalty leading to a try or converted kick could spell the end of their unprecedented winning run.
Of course, the other way of looking at such a record is that France know how to grind out victories in tight matches, and Dublin will hold no fear for them having triumphed there on their last visit two years ago - albeit behind closed doors.
Ireland have won 18 of their last 20 matches themselves, though, and if they are able to exploit any French ill-discipline then they could well become the first team since Scotland in March 2021 to beat Les Bleus.
The lineout may also be a particular area that Ireland look to target having enjoyed a 100% success rate and stolen three opposition throws last weekend, while only Wales had a lower success rate on their throw than Fabien Galthie's side.
Just as it has been tipped to be this season, last year's meeting between these two sides ultimately proved to be the title decider, and it was one France won 30-24 in Paris.
That was Les Bleus' third successive win against Ireland, having won just one of their previous nine meetings before that, and their current run includes a 15-13 victory on their last trip to Dublin, meaning that Ireland are winless in this fixture since 2019.
France have only ever won back-to-back away games against Ireland once before - in 2005 and 2007 - but they have won away to Ireland in six of the previous nine Rugby World Cup years.
Overall, France lead the head to head with 59 wins to Ireland's 35, with 12 French wins, nine Ireland triumphs and two draws coming in the Six Nations era.
The three away sides all secured bonus-point wins for the first time in Six Nations history last weekend, but we can see that away glory coming to an end in Dublin.
It is a tantalising showdown between the best two teams in the world, both of whom are on record winning runs and are expected to put in improved showings from the opening weekend.
For France to raise their level - both in terms of performance and discipline - enough from the Italy scare to beat Ireland away looks like a tough ask, though, whereas Ireland had their match against Wales won inside half an hour in Cardiff.
The last three meetings have all gone the way of France, but all by single-figure margins, while France's recent victories have been narrow ones too, so we can see Ireland finally ending the visitors' long winning run in what is sure to be a fiercely-contested showdown.
Ireland 25 France 21
Scotland v Wales
Wow - have Scotland ever played better at Twickenham?
The Calcutta Cup was an enthralling victory for Scotland and their third in a row against England, something that has not been done since 1972, before Gregor Townsend was born and when the UK was still coming to terms with decimal currency.
They were worthy winners, and with a bonus point too. Two tries from Duhan van der Merwe - one of them an absolute stunner - and one apiece from Huw Jones and Ben White were the headline acts but that barely does justice to a remarkable afternoon.
The game ebbed and flowed and at times it looked as if England would mark new coach Steve Borthwick’s first game in charge with a win. The home crowd sang long and loudly, with Swing Low booming round the ground, but Scotland were always in touch and Finn Russell was creative and controlled, outsmarting England’s dual playmakers, Marcus Smith, and Owen Farrell. The stand-off also contributed nine points with three conversions and a penalty.
The challenge for Scotland is can they build from this fantastic start to the championship. We’ve been here before as Scotland have failed to produce two performances on the bounce. But the times they are a changin’ and Gregor Townsend and his team will have watched and analysed Wales’s toothless performance in Cardiff and with a homecoming to Murrayfield – they will be very confident of continuing their momentum against Wales.
Warren Gatland will need to address the lack of discipline and soft penalties which were the key factors behind Wales’s heaviest Six Nations home defeat for 22 years. The 34-10 loss to Ireland at home shredded any fairy-tale script that might have accompanied Gatland's return for his second stint as Wales head coach.
Gatland's team will head to Edinburgh next weekend for an appointment with resurgent Scotland, knowing that their tournament hopes and ambitions are already under intense scrutiny and while Wales have won on six of their last seven visits to Murrayfield, Scotland's memorable Calcutta Cup triumph against England has dramatically increased their degree of difficulty.
Ireland made nine entries into the opposition 22 and came away with four tries and two penalties - 34 points. In stark contrast, Wales made 11 entries but scored just one try. Therein lies the tale of the game in a nutshell. This was a brutally one-sided contest, one which laid bare the scale of the task Gatland has undertaken
Gregor Townsend has made just one change to his Scottish XV for Saturday's match, with Zander Fagerson having recovered from a hamstring injury to start at prop.
WP Nel drops to the bench as a result, while Simon Berghan is left out of the squad entirely in the only personnel change to the 23.
That means that there is still no place for Hamish Watson, despite his return for Edinburgh before the Six Nations began.
For Wales, Warren Gatland has made some substantive changes in the pack, with former captain and the most-capped player in international rugby history Alun Wyn Jones among those left out of the squad entirely.
Another experienced campaigner in Justin Tipuric has also been dropped from the 23, while Taulupe Faletau has to settle for a place on the bench. Tipuric and Faletau paying the penalty for less than stellar performances against Ireland.
Captain Ken Owens, Adam Beard and Jac Morgan are the only forwards to retain their places, and the latter will make up an inexperienced back row alongside Christ Tshiunza and Tommy Reffell, a trio that has won just 20 caps between them.
Reffell and Tshiunza will join lock Dafydd Jenkins in earning their first Wales starts, while Wyn Jones and Dillon Lewis both return at prop in place of Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis.
By contrast, the backline remains unchanged for Gatland, including centurions Dan Biggar and George North, and week one try-scorer Liam Williams.
Wales have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 13 of their last 15 Six Nations matches against Scotland, including in both of the last two years to halt early Scotland momentum from an opening-weekend win.
That run includes six wins from the last seven visits to Murrayfield too, most recently a 25-24 triumph in 2021 which saw Wayne Pivac's side come from behind to edge to victory, before going on to win the whole tournament.
Scotland have to go back to 2017 for their last home win over Wales, while their 11 Six Nations home games against Wales in total have yielded just three victories compared to seven for the visitors.
This promises to be a fascinating contest between a Scotland side packed with talent and buoyed by their win over England against a relatively inexperienced Welsh side looking to get back on their feet under Gatland.
Scotland have so often fallen at the second hurdle in recent years, with Wales their chief tormentors in those times, but this time around we are backing the home side to come out on top by a narrow margin.
Scotland 21 Wales 16
England v Italy
Like Warren Gatland, Steve Borthwick also had a tough introduction to coaching in the Six Nations.
England will have a number of concerns. The lack of gain line dominance cost them so much momentum. Rucks were won quickly, but Test rugby is about getting behind the primary defence and into scramble situations. It’s clear they’re short of a carrier or two, but that’s an easy fix if it’s identified.
England spent four minutes and 44 seconds in Scotland’s 22, yielding three tries to Max Malins (2) and Ellis Genge, but much of that time was spent battering into a wall of blue without any form of return.
Conversely, Scotland’s visits to the red zone lasted only one minute and 44 seconds, yet saw them cross four times, a remarkable efficiency rate, but one probably enhanced by the powerful running of Van der Merwe.
The difference in carry was noticeable. England went into this game with the aim of fast ruck ball (which at times they achieved) but short on big carriers, putting an immense workload on Ellis Genge and Lewis Ludlam.
The unforced errors will also be a mighty concern. This weekend, they’ll put them down to bedding in and a new regime, but should they occur again next weekend against a promising Italy, the result might just be a little more embarrassing.
England also need to show substantive improvement in open field tackling. When they show the highlight reels of this remarkable era of Scottish dominance, future folk will ask why England didn’t just haul down Scottish runners. Once a Scot made a line break, England seemed to panic and accept that a 30, 40, 50m solo try is the only outcome.
As I go to press the England team has not been named. Henry Slade is back in the England set-up, after he was named in the squad earlier this week having recovered from injury. A hip problem kept him out of the Scotland clash, but the Exeter centre is back in contention and has returned to the group along with London Irish wing Henry Arundell, who has overcome a foot injury.
Lots of debate on the Owen Farrell/Marcus Smith axis in midfield so it wouldn’t surprise me for Borthwick to drop Smith and return Farrell to Outside half.
Ben Youngs, Ben Curry and Anthony Watson - all of whom saw the field against Scotland - were all omitted from the slimmed-down 29-man group named by Borthwick on Wednesday.
For Italy, the promise shown at the U20 age group over the past few seasons is finally coming to fruition. Italy’s 29-24 loss showed they can compete against the best and with a bit more composure in a dominant final 10 minutes, they could have claimed a momentous victory over France.
Victories against Wales and Australia in 2022 has provided a lift to Italian rugby that was in full view as they went toe to toe with the Grand Slam champions, who were crushed by their high penalty count.
Full-back Ange Capuozzo burst on to the scene last year and his electric attacking skills, typified by his slick try against France, are the focal point for a team that is proving worth of a place in the Six Nations.
Italy have never beaten England and as such the hosts are clear favourites. However, Italy are an improving outfit and it would be no shock to see them ask more questions of this England side at Twickenham than they have done before.
History is certainly not on the Italians' side, though. These two teams have faced off 29 times with England winning every one of those encounters. What's more, the total points scored by both teams in the 16 matches played between them at Twickenham stands at 720 for England compared to 190 for Italy.
Steve Borthwick will say all the right things in the build-up but privately knows this is a must-win game, even this early in his tenure as England head coach, and the sort of match his side should be winning by a commanding margin if they have serious ambitions of a Six Nations title, especially after their opening-game loss against Scotland.
The most points Italy have mustered at Twickenham is 23 way back in 2001. They surely have to do better than that to have any chance of causing an upset.
Last week’s results weren’t a disaster for Borthwick but losing to Italy for the first time in history would be, even with the obvious improvements the Azzurri are making. Back-to-back home defeats against Scotland and Italy was unthinkable only a few years ago but is a possibility this weekend. However, there is no escaping that England quite simply have the ability, test match experience and home advantage in this game; those three things will surely be enough to secure victory. The Italians should seek to make it as uncomfortable an afternoon as possible for their opponents and see where that leaves them in the latter stages of the match.
Italy threatened to pounce on an incredibly ill-disciplined display from France, who gave up 18 penalties. England will surely not be so generous, while Italy’s awful record at Twickenham, and against England generally, remains a mental hurdle.
A fast start will be important for Borthwick’s side to ensure that no nerves build in the stands, and England showed enough in attack against Scotland to suggest they can produce that.
I’m struggling a bit with this one to be honest. History points towards a comfortable win for England but the opening weekend suggests this match could be anything but. There may well be some sticky moments, but the first win of the new era should come in relatively comfortable fashion.
It would not come as a surprise to see Italy keep this one competitive for the entire 80 minutes but I’m still going with England to run out winners by a reasonable, but not massive score difference.
England 31 Italy 14
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