Final round of matches in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations and your correspondent is more smug than usual. 11 correct predictions in 12 matches and the prospect of 3 home wins to finish. Round 4 had its controversies’ but it was another great advert for the tournament leading up to a mouth-watering final game on Super Saturday in Paris.
Super Saturday, the day when all three fixtures are played one after another, is one of the highlights of the sporting year, let alone just the rugby calendar.
Let’s look at how the final games will play out.
Wales v Italy
First game up sees the Azzuri make the journey to Cardiff to face an improving Dan Biggar inspired Wales. Wales had their moments in the Friday night match against France but ultimately had their attack blunted against the well drilled Shaun Edwards coached French defence. It’s been a disappointing championship for Wales and yet they gave France, the likely champions, their most difficult match.
Wales’ former defence coach is a serial winner, whether as a rugby league playing great or in accomplished track-suited roles with Wasps, Wales, and France. Edwards was part of Warren Gatland’s Wales coaching team between 2008 and 2019, a period that delivered four Six Nations titles, three Grand Slams and a World Cup semi-final appearance. He left to join the France set-up more than two years ago, and he has transformed Les Bleus’ defensive structure and attitude. The Wales players know exactly what they are up against.
Wales fought hard in a loss to Grand Slam chasing France, in which captain Dan Biggar felt the better side lost. Similarly, Italy put in by far their best performance of the Championship in a 33-22 loss to Scotland. Nevertheless, the Azzurri have now lost 36 matches in a row in the Six Nations, and it does not look like they will arrest that slump soon.
Just a year after Wales went for a Grand Slam in Paris in the final match, there is an inevitable sense of anti-climax as the defending champions kick off Super Saturday against Italy with little at stake. Their aim will be to post a bonus-point win to climb to third and then sit back to see if Scotland and/or England can dislodge them.
Italy will yearn for something to cling to. They were very good at times against Scotland but still finished empty-handed. They’re conceding 40 points a game in this championship compared to 48 last year, so there is progress. They would like a try or two as well – their 2022 haul of four is their joint fewest apart from 2004 and 2009, when they scored just two.
Italy are hoping to end a 36-match losing run in the championship – the worst sequence in championship history. There have been two World Cups played since their last Six Nations victory, against Scotland in February 2015.
Italy have managed two wins and a draw against Wales in their 22 championship meetings, but the most recent of those successes was 15 years ago. They will be keen to avoid their experience from 2020 when the Azzurri failed to score on their last visit to Cardiff, losing 42-0 as Josh Adams scored a hat-trick.
To make matters worse for Kieran Crowley’s Italy, Wales coach Wayne Pivac has named a starting team that shows seven changes from the 13-9 round four defeat to Grand Slam-chasing France last Friday – including the recall of Louis Rees-Zammit. The headline selection, though, will be the return of record caps holder Alun Wyn Jones for his first outing since suffering a shoulder injury against New Zealand in the autumn.
Alun Wyn Jones makes a sensational return to the starting line-up, after being side-lined with a shoulder injury, to win his 150th cap for Wales, extending his record as the most capped Test player of all time.
His return at lock sees Will Rowlands in one of three changes to the pack. Dewi Lake is promoted from the bench to start in place of the absent Ryan Elias while Dillon Lewis is in for another front row absentee, tighthead Tomas Francis.
There are four changes in the backs, starting at full-back where Johnny McNicholl takes over from Liam Williams. The Rees-Zammit stint on the Wales bench is also over as he gets the nod to start ahead of Alex Cuthbert.
Uilisi Halaholo is chosen at inside centre in place of Jonathan Davies while a switch at scrum-half sees Gareth Davies start for the first time this year in place of Tomas Williams, who was an early injury departure against the French.
Dan Biggar will win his 100th cap for Wales this weekend while he also retains the captaincy even though veteran skipper Jones is now back at lock. The milestones do not stop there for the Welsh as Dan Biggar will run out for his 100th appearance for the country and keeps the captaincy despite Jones’ return.
The remarkable double milestone for two Welsh legends will only inspire the side who will be looking for a bonus-point victory in this game.
Seb Davies, 6ft 6in and nearly 19st, gets the opportunity to chance to go again in the back row alongside Josh Navidi and Taulupe Faletau. It was a unit that excelled against the French without earning the result they deserved. Navidi was named Man of the Match in the corresponding fixture last year, making 18 tackles and seven carries.
On the bench, Bradley Roberts is in line for his Six Nations debut. There is plenty of experience elsewhere in a five-three split
Italy coach Crowley is looking for his players to draw on from some of the positives seen against Scotland and finish the competition on a high against Wales.
On the other hand, Italy will be boosted by their late flourish in their 33-22 loss to Scotland. Two late tries aided the score line, but the Italians were still well short of claiming their first win in the 2022 Six Nations. Ange Capuozzo starts for the first time in an Italian shirt and will be looking to kick on after a brace last weekend off the bench.
Pierre Bruno is the player to take the hit and drop to the replacements bench for this clash in one of two changes for the Six Nations clash in Cardiff.
Marco Fuser comes into the second row to partner with Ferico Ruzza in the only other change to the starting XV. Niccolo Cannone is moved to the bench where Italy head coach Kieran Crowley has opted for a 6-2 split for the game at the Principality Stadium.
The final round means a last chance to get that elusive win and Italy will once again play with passion and heart, something that has long been a cornerstone of their rugby ethos. However, the return of Jones and the double milestone is always going to count against the Azzurri, particularly with the game being played in the Principality Stadium.
It was a resounding 48-7 win for Wales at the Stadio Olimpico as the visitors held a 27-0 lead at half-time. Wales scored seven tries to the one of Italy with Ken Owens securing a brace. The visitors had a whopping 12 clean breaks with possession and territory shared evenly between the two sides. The visitors would go on to win the Six Nations title and Italy would remain at the foot of the table without a win for another season.
Alun Wyn Jones recovery from a shoulder injury sustained in October against the All Blacks shows incredible single mindedness and he will hit the ground running as he always seems to do. He is a remarkable man whose influence on the players around him compliments his overall skill set and it was an absolute no-brainer for Pivac to bring the 36-year-old back into the starting line-up. Jones will command the game and be a difficult presence to deal with for Italy. Wales will be a menace in the lineouts and look to use set-pieces to drown any Italian resistance. A true legend of the game.
Dan Biggar’s 100th appearance for Wales may be overshadowed by Jones’ milestone but the captain has had an excellent Six Nations where he has evidently grown as a player and a leader with the additional responsibilities. Biggar will pull all the strings on Saturday as he has done so many times in the Welsh jersey. The influence of Jones in the forward pack will only improve the platform for the pivot to work with. Expect Biggar to have complete control and give the outside backs a chance to fire
Wales, despite being well beaten by Ireland and then losing narrowly to England and France, could still finish third in the Six Nations. They would need to beat Italy with a bonus point, then see how England and Scotland fare in their final games, but it is a realistic prospect.
Wales 45 Italy 21
Ireland v Scotland
Ireland will be determined to put pressure on tournament pacesetters France in the race for the title by securing a victory over Scotland at the Aviva Stadium.
That is easier said than done but the men from the Emerald Isle will be quietly confident of achieving that goal as they head into this fixture in a rich vein of form after registering solid wins over Italy in Dublin and England at Twickenham in recent weeks.
Prior to that, Andy Farrell‘s side started their campaign with a bang when they delivered an excellent all-round display en-route to a bonus-point victory against defending champions Wales. Their next match was a tricky assignment against high riding France in Paris, but they pushed their hosts all the way before coming up short in a 30-24 defeat.
Those wins over the Azzurri and England sets them up nicely for their match with the Scots and an Irish triumph will mean they finish the Championship as Triple Crown winners – a feat they last achieved in 2018.
A positive result for them also means Les Bleus have it all to do as apart from their Grand Slam ambitions, a defeat for them against England will almost certainly mean that Ireland are crowned Six Nations champions as they have a superior points difference to France.
Meanwhile, Scotland head into this fixture after delivering another mixed bag of results in 2022 and it was another campaign of “ifs” and “buts” for head coach Gregor Townsend and his troops.
Like last year, they made a fantastic start by beating England in their tournament opener, but it all went pear-shaped after that as they suffered back-to-back defeats to Wales and France before they bounced back with a victory against perennial whipping boys Italy, in Rome last week.
Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend has made two changes to his starting line-up for Scotland’s final match of the 2022 Six Nations, with Blair Kinghorn and Jonny Gray selected to face Ireland at the Aviva Stadium this Saturday.
Edinburgh fly-half Kinghorn is rewarded for some impressive performances, including his starring role in the recent United Rugby Championship victory against Connacht two weeks ago, and starts ahead of the dropped Finn Russell, who is on the bench.
Exeter Chiefs second-row Gray has also returned to the starting XV having been ruled out of Scotland’s last two Six Nations matches through injury.
Stuart Hogg once again captains the team from full-back with Edinburgh’s Darcy Graham on one wing and Glasgow Warriors’ Kyle Steyn selected on the other, following his starting role against Italy.
In the centre, Gloucester’s Chris Harris and Glasgow Warriors’ Sam Johnson start alongside each other for the third match this championship.
In the front-row, Edinburgh’s Pierre Schoeman is named along with Glasgow Warriors’ George Turner and Zander Fagerson. Vice-captain Grant Gilchrist will partner Gray in the second row.
Edinburgh’s Hamish Watson will edge one more cap closer to reaching 50 appearances and alongside him in the backrow will be Glasgow Warriors’ duo Rory Darge and Matt Fagerson, who have both been lauded for stand-out performances so far in the championship.
In the replacements, Fraser Brown is named and will be aiming to add to his 54 caps, alongside fellow front-row operators Allan Dell and WP Nel. Sam Skinner is also listed, while Bath’s Josh Bayliss has been chosen for the first time in this year’s Six Nations after making his debut against Australia in the 2021 Autumn Nations Series.
London Irish’s Ben White makes his return to the squad after not being involved last week and Edinburgh’s Mark Bennett is selected as a replacement alongside Russell of Racing 92.
If Gregor Townsend were in any doubt that his decision to start against Ireland with Blair Kinghorn at stand-off might be controversial, a quick scan of social media would have set him right.
There is little doubt that Finn Russell has been well below his best since a strong opening game against England, but with less than a season at No?10 under his belt at Edinburgh, there remains a scepticism about whether Kinghorn is a sufficiently experienced playmaker, even though he made a promising start against Tonga.
The Scotland coach has a track record of bold selections and has been closely involved in Edinburgh’s decision to play the 6ft 5in former full-back at stand-off this season. From his lengthy hesitation when asked whether he would have started Kinghorn against Italy had he been available, it seems likely that Townsend is simply following through on his plan for Rome.
It is certainly a bold move, especially because there are question marks over Kinghorn’s place-kicking. Townsend, who confirmed that Kinghorn would kick in Dublin, pointed out that Russell does not kick for Racing 92, yet his percentage of successful kicks in Test matches since 2015 is 81 per cent.
Kinghorn, who has been working intensively with kicking coach Chris Paterson, started the season kicking for Edinburgh but after getting just two of five kicks against Benetton at home in early December saw the kicking duties handed to Emiliano Boffelli, never to return.
Townsend has clearly concluded that Kinghorn brings more benefits than disadvantages, especially in a game which, for Scotland, is a dead rubber. He has been in excellent form for an Edinburgh side who have been scoring tries for fun and has undoubtedly shown signs of progress in his schoolboy position.
Against France, Kinghorn’s run made Duhan van der Merwe’s late try, the replacement No. 10 picking up the ball deep in his own half and racing through a gap in the French line before offloading inside the 22.
For Ireland, Wing Mack Hansen has returned to Ireland. Hansen comes in for Andrew Conway, who is being managed due to a knee problem, and he joins Hugo Keenan and James Lowe in the back three.
Johnny Sexton will become Ireland’s joint sixth most capped player, equalling prop John Hayes‘ cap tally (105) when he leads the side out in Dublin.
Jamison Gibson-Park will again pair up with Sexton in the half-backs against Scotland, while Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose are retained at centre.
The front-row of Cian Healy, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong is retained while Tadhg Beirne and Iain Henderson are named in the engine room. Iain Henderson starts following James Ryan’s head injury
Jack Conan is at number eight with Caelan Doris switching to the blindside flank and Josh van der Flier makes his eight consecutive start at seven.
The replacements for the Six Nations encounter at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin are Rob Herring, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, Kieran Treadwell, Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery and Robbie Henshaw.
Scotland got the bonus point against Italy on Saturday but the concession of two late tries in a 33-22 win took some shine off the triumph. Having followed up their opening win against England with defeats against Wales and France, Saturday’s game will go a long way to defining how their campaign is viewed.
Ireland have won 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two sides, with Scotland looking for their first win in Dublin since 2010. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unlikely. That means the men in dark blue have, once again, flattered to deceive and they face a daunting task against their hosts who have proven difficult to beat at the Aviva Stadium of late, with their last loss at the venue registered in February 2021 when they came up short against France.
Added to that is the fact that Ireland have dominated this fixture in recent years, and they head into Saturday’s match having won the last six matches between these teams.
The irony is a victory for the men in green will mean Irish fans cheering on England against France - which will be a strange experience. Both teams boast outstanding attacking players throughout their ranks and although there are numerous mouth-watering duels across the park, the battle between the two openside flankers, Ireland’s Josh van der Flier and Hamish Watson of Scotland, is one which should set the pulses racing as both are vital cogs for their respective teams.
Van der Flier was one of Ireland’s stars against England as he delivered an excellent all-round display with his ball carrying particularly outstanding. He’s also solid on defence and a menace at the breakdowns – all attributes which are also amongst Watson’s strengths. Last year’s Six Nations player of the tournament might not have reached those lofty heights in 2022 but he is still a very good player who will be keen to finish the tournament on a high with a polished performance.
Ireland 28 Scotland 21
France v England
Can Les Bleus seal the Slam on Saturday night? Or will Eddie Jones’s selection calls prove a masterstroke? Antoine Dupont is hoping to lead France to a first Grand Slam since 2010
Le Crunch. That’s the moniker given to this Six Nations fixture, and it seems even more fitting this year.
It’s crunch time for France because a Grand Slam is on the line. It’s been more than a decade since they lifted the Six Nations trophy and getting their hands on it at the Stade de France is viewed as an important step on the road to next year’s Rugby World Cup.
It’s crunch time for England, too, or perhaps more specifically for Eddie Jones. For all the head coach’s talk of ‘new England’ during this championship, of a revolutionary attacking style, we haven’t seen it put into action. In fact, their attack has looked more shapeless than shapeshifting.
England are playing for third place only after falling to Scotland and Andy Farrell’s men but could finish as low as fifth if France prevails and other results go against them.
England were the moral victors in their battle against Ireland. Their reaction to Charlie Ewels red card was galvanising and to come back to 15-15 should great effort, heart, and motivation to win.
Charlie Ewels did not mean to clatter James Ryan’s cheek 82 seconds into a ferociously attritional Test match. He got his angles wrong, misjudged his height, was perhaps unsighted by the whirling kaleidoscope of green and white flooding his field of vision. It was an unfortunate, gruesome accident. So early in the game, you might be inclined to show leniency to a player warming his shoulders, tuning in his radar, but by that flawed logic, in which minute should we start applying the laws?
Indeed, you can have sympathy for Ewels, and England, as terrific as they were with 14 men, without arguing his hit was anything but a nailed-on, stonewall red card.
England have won their last two matches against France by narrow three-point margins, but Saturday's contest will be different, with France chasing a first Grand Slam since 2010 and England showing inconsistent form and a lacklustre attack throughout this Six Nations.
Star wing Damian Penaud has recovered from Covid-19 to take his place in the France XV for the Six Nations finale against England. Fabien Galthie has largely kept faith with the side that defeated Wales last weekend.
Yoram Moefana, who has impressed during this campaign, misses out. He is dropped from the squad completely due to injury, leaving Galthie to opt for a six-two split to combat England’s pack, which performed well against Ireland.
With the French looking to match their opponents’ power, they are pleased to welcome back Romain Taofifenua – another player to have suffered from Covid – and he takes his place among the replacements.
Elsewhere, it’s a case of more of the same with Melvyn Jaminet providing a dead-eye boot and counter-attacking threat from full-back.
At centre, Jonathan Danty and Gael Fickou have formed an impressive and well-balanced partnership, but they will want more from Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack. While Dupont has showed his quality on occasions, Ntamack has struggled to truly fire.
There have been few such problems up front with the pack proving to be a well-oiled machine. Gregory Alldritt has re-found his best form and is joined by Anthony Jelonch and Francois Cros in the France back-row.
Paul Willemse has had a superb Six Nations tournament, and, alongside standout youngster Cameron Woki, they have been a very effective unit in the engine room.
In the front-row, Cyril Baille and Julien Marchand are both contenders for player of the tournament, with Uini Atonio completing the XV.
England have named their side to face France in their Six Nations clash in Paris, with George Furbank a shock selection at full-back.
The Northampton Saints player comes in for the dropped Max Malins which means Freddie Steward shifts from number 15 to the wing on Saturday.
Eddie Jones has made one further alteration to his backline as Ben Youngs returns in place of Harry Randall for the trip to the Grand Slam chasers.
There are three new faces in the pack with tighthead prop Kyle Sinckler recovering from the concussion sustained against Ireland yet being limited to a bench role as support for the starting Will Stuart.
Charlie Ewels’ red card in the 32-15 defeat in round four means Nick Isiekwe makes his third start of the Six Nations in the second row while Sam Underhill replaces hamstring-injury victim Tom Curry at openside.
Joe Launchbury has failed to secure a spot among the replacements despite making his comeback from knee surgery against Ireland. Instead, Jones has opted for Ollie Chessum as lock cover.
England will be eager to replicate their strong scrummaging performance against France after a dominant display at the set-piece in the loss to Ireland, George highlighted the main challenge posed by France's excellent starting front row of Cyril Baille, Julien Marchand and Uini Atonio.
Can England raise their game to end French Grand Slam hopes? It is certainly possible. England have not clicked this Six Nations yet but, if they do, Eddie Jones' side will be a threat. It should be remembered they did defeat the World Champion Springboks in their last game of the autumn.
However, for that to happen, England will have to be near-perfect in all facets. Stopping the fluid and powerful French attack for the entirety of the match seems likely to be just a step too far, especially away from home with France just one win from a Grand Slam. France by a score.
France 24 England 16
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