Week 3 - 2018 Six Nations - A Weekend of Away wins?

After a one-week break, its back to the Six Nations this weekend for the crucial third round of matches. Rugby Raconteur is happily sitting with a 100% prediction record on the first 6 fixtures and also showing good accuracy in winning margins with a 95% accuracy – a total prediction of 104 points spread and an actual spread of 109 points.

There are some really significant match ups which could determine the final destination of the championship trophy. England make the difficult journey north to face Scotland at Murrayfield whilst Ireland will host Wales in Dublin. The third match will see the Championship’s only winless teams – France and Italy meeting for what could be the wooden spoon decider.

Before we go on to review this week’s matches, I cannot move on without making some comments about “TMOGATE” – the major talking point of week 2’s tight encounter at Twickenham.

A referee can easily change the result of a match with his/her decision-making and the TMO is supposed to assist the referee with making the right calls throughout the match.

If the referee is not 100% sure whether to award the try or not, he/she can ask for a video replay. This could be because he/she is not certain whether a player had gone into touch before the player put required pressure on the ball for the try to be awarded, or because a potential knock on may have occurred while the player was trying to ground the ball.

The use of Television Match Official (TMO) has been used in rugby union since 2001. Since the introduction of the TMO, the number of mistakes made by match officials has decreased significantly. However, in this instance the TMO made a total hash of the decision. He didn’t take long enough and didn’t look at enough angles to truly make an effective decision. This raises two questions:

Was it a try? In my view – yes it was and how he came to the conclusion that there wasn’t contact and the England player touched it first frankly beggar’s belief.

Did it change the end result? This is the harder one to answer but again in my view, the better team on the day won the match. Wales played very well but didn’t take their chances and were always on the wrong side of the scoreboard. They just couldn't convert that effort and energy into points whereas England had two try scoring chances and took both of them.

As my friend and Rugby Japan Journo Rich Freeman pointed out to me though, World Rugby made an even bigger hash of it by later commenting that it should have been a try. That move completely undermined their own officials and World Rugby also need to look hard at their refereeing and TMO assignments. Sending a guy halfway around the world to be a TMO is clearly ridiculous.

Anyway, enough of ancient history and what could have been – let’s look ahead to the week 3 encounters:

France v Italy

First game up on Friday evening is France versus Italy in a unique game being played under the lights in a sure-to-be-packed Stade Vélodrome in Marseilles. This will be an interesting encounter and looks destined to be the wooden spoon decider with both France and Italy losing their opening two matches. France having been beaten 15-13 by Ireland and 32-26 by Scotland; whilst Italy have already clocked up over 100 points in the “Points Against” column with defeats at home to England 46-15 and 56-19 away to Ireland in Dublin.

France really have mainly themselves to blame. They took Ireland by surprise in Paris and looked like holding on against Scotland at Murrayfield but in both instances, the high penalty count has seriously hurt them and unless they rapidly improve their discipline on the field of play – it’s hard to see Les Blues rebounding to a higher level.

To make matters worse, France have suspended eight players following a late-night altercation in Edinburgh – including try scoring machine and arguably France’s stand out player – Teddy Thomas.

It has been eight Tests since France's last win, and with a total of nine players left out of the squad following Round Two and some familiar faces called back in, Head Coach Jacques Brunel was formerly the Head honcho at Italy too and he will be keen to do well against his former team and looking to get France on track for their first win of the season.

Brunel has changed a third of his team but has kept faith in scrum half Maxime Machenaud and out-half Lionel Beauxis. France have frequently chopped and changed at half-back under their last three head coaches – so some stability at half backs is a welcome call.

Outside the half backs, Brunel has added fresh blood to the threequarters for the game in Marseille. With Teddy Thomas not in the squad, and Virimi Vakatawa struggling for form, there were always likely to be changes in the back three, and in the end, Brunel has completely overhauled his wingers and full-backs.

Winger Rémy Grosso replaces the disappointing Virimi Vakatawa and Benjamin Fall comes in for Teddy Thomas. Fall will make his Six Nations debut, having previously won his only French cap against Canada in the distant 2015 World Cup.

Mathieu Bastareaud is named at centre in place of Remi Lamerat and Hugo Bonneval replaces Geoffrey Palis at fullback.

The final change comes in the pack where Paul Gabrillagues gets the nod in the second row in place of Arthur Iturria while there are also six changes to the bench.

20-year-old Lyon scrum-half Baptiste Couilloud could make his debut off the bench, while Romain Taofifenua, Kelian Galletier, Francois Trinh-Duc and Gael Fickou make their first matchday squads of this year’s championship. Couilloud has been in outstanding form for Lyon, alongside starting fly-half Lionel Beauxis, having already racked up eight tries this season.

That included another score against Clermont on Saturday, as he helped his team to a comfortable win over the French champions, and Brunel will be hoping his pace and support running will come into play in the latter stages.

As for Italy, they have quite honestly been awful so far but in fairness have faced the competitions two strongest teams in the opening two rounds. Conor O’Shea has again rolled the changes as the Azzurri try and gain something form yet another embarrassing Six Nations.

Italy have a young group of players which O’Shea will be hoping learns match after match. They always knew that the first two games against England and Ireland would be very tough, but there have been few positives in their performances.

A year ago, the depth and the internal competition Italy could count on today were totally different, and O’Shea will hope the progress Benetton and Zebre having been making in the Pro 14 will eventually translate at international level.

After defeats to England and Italy, the Azzurri's confidence remains undimmed and they are hoping to upset the odds on French soil. France have beaten Italy five times in succession, including a World Cup victory, but Les Bleus will be wary as twice before have Italy beaten them in the Championship in 2011 and 2013 but both came at home, and O'Shea has made three changes for the clash at the Stade Vélodrome.

O'Shea has made three changes from the side beaten by Ireland, with prop Andrea Lovotti and hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini both gaining starts, while Maxime Mbanda features in the back-row, packing down alongside Sebastian Negri and skipper Sergio Parisse, who wins his 132nd cap.

Lovotti and Ghiraldini started the first game of this year's Championship against England and are recalled in place of Nicola Quaglio and Luca Bigi respectively. The scrum struggled that day against the defending champions but O'Shea looks confident in their ability to right those wrongs against France.

Lovotti and Ghiraldini bring more experience than their replacements Nicola Quaglio and Luca Bigi and will need to be at their best to halt a settled looking starting French pack. 

The third and final change to the starting XV comes in the back row where Maxime Mbanda is promoted from the bench for his first start of the Championship into the back row for Braam Steyn at No.7, the latter dropping out of the match day 23 altogether.

Mbanda was Italy's top tackler in last year's Championship but has had to settle for a spot on the bench in the opening two rounds.

George Biagi comes onto the bench with both Renato Giammarioli and Giovanni Licata out injured.

For the third match in a row Italy have stuck with their entire backline - and they have shown signs of clicking as an attacking force. They ran in three tries in Dublin, albeit after the game was already lost, and also caused England some problems in Rome with two scores and another disallowed.

Sergio Parisse captains the side that has an unchanged back line, with Matteo Minozzi in the back three alongside wings Tommaso Benvenuti and Mattia Bellini.

Tommaso Castello and Tommaso Boni are the centres while Tommaso Allan and Marcello Violi remain in the half-backs. 

The four flying Tommasos - Boni, Castello and Benvenuti, with Allan pulling the strings at fly-half - run hard and can cause problems to any defences. But it is the attacking guile of Matteo Minozzi at full-back and the power of Mattia Bellini that have really caught the eye for the Italians.

Allan's game management and reliable goal-kicking are clearly favoured by O'Shea but Carlo Canna remains a game changer off the bench. His fine distribution could prove vital in the latter stages when the game gets stretched. 

This is a really difficult game to call but you have to go with home form and assume that eventually France will start to click and punish a vulnerable opponent. Italy haven’t looked anything showing their normal strength in the pack and I fear they could struggle badly in the set pieces. It will be important for both teams on Friday to learn from their mistakes and execute their game-plans, showing off their rugby throughout the game.

The game will really depend upon quick ball and if the French half backs get that moving then Bastareaud will punch some holes in the Italian defence and France should be able to make their experience and strength count with a comfortable victory.

France 36 Italy 13

Ireland v Wales

Match number two see an inviting matchup between Ireland and Wales in the early afternoon kick off at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Ireland come into the game after the rout against the Italians as Ireland now sit two wins from two games before Wales arrive in Dublin.

As expected, after their narrow and some would say fortuitous win in Paris; Ireland cantered to victory over Italy in the second match of their Six Nations campaign but the home side worryingly shipped 19 points in the final 25 minutes as the Italians mounted a late drive for respectability. 

A more detailed examination of the victory over the hapless Italians would show that at times Ireland were ruthlessly clinical and looked very sharp in attack in wrapping up the bonus point before the break and pushed the lead to 42-0 after Rory Best's try was converted early in the second half.

The flip side however was the concession of three tries (no previous Italian side has ever left Dublin with 19 points) and some worrying defensive lapses.

Such was the feeble Italian resistance in the first half, that it would be very difficult to read too much into the Irish performance, but notwithstanding, there is plenty for Joe Schmidt and his management team to mull over before the third outing of the competition.

Ireland could be vulnerable against Wales if they don't iron out the defensive flaws which appeared late in the Italy game. 

The three tries that they scored were pretty much down to Irish defensive system failures. For the first try, Ireland effectively overloaded their short side with too many defenders, which created a problem on the outside defensive line and Flanker Dan Leavy got caught and we were down numbers. 

  

The second Italian try was almost a replica of Teddy Thomas’s defence breaching try in Paris. Jordan Larmour came far too far out of the line on the outside channel, isolated himself, then got beaten and Italy went down the wide-open channel that he left open. 

On the final try, Ireland were defending near their line and got very condensed around the maul. This had the consequence that it left the whole midfield wide open. One pass cut out three Irish defenders and Rob Kearney was left facing a two-on-one. 

Larmour tried his best to get behind him and cut it off but it was impossible. With 20 metres of space, 10 metres from the goal-line, every international winger will score. 

As Rugby Raconteur reaches his publication deadline, the Irish team had not been announced but several authoritative “leaks” give us a good picture of what side Joe Schmidt will put out against Wales.

Andrew Porter and James Ryan look set to come into the Ireland team to face Wales on Saturday if injury concerns over Lions pair Tadhg Furlong and Iain Henderson proving insurmountable. There is serious concern over the fitness of British and Irish Lions Furlong, who pulled up with a hamstring injury against Italy two weeks ago.

Defence coach Andy Farrell said they'd be taking no risks with the prop this week and reports in Ireland are saying he'll miss the game.

Various media reports indicate that head coach Joe Schmidt will make five changes in personnel to his starting XV.

Schmidt looks likely to turn to the highly-rated Chris Farrell to come in for Robbie Henshaw at outside centre after the Leinster man’s injury against the Azzurri, while CJ Stander resumes Test duties at the base of the scrum, with Jack Conan among the replacements. - the Ireland coach hinting that Farrell was the leading contender last week.

The Munster centre has played excellently for his province this season and is a hard-carrying option and defensive stalwart but is a lot less dynamic in attack.

Porter was eye-catching upon his early arrival for Furlong against the Italians, and holds off competition from John Ryan at tighthead, with the Munster man on the bench.

Only captain Rory Best looks likely to remain in the front row with the continued rotation policy at loosehead likely to see Cian Healy come in for provincial team-mate Jack McGrath.

In the second row, Ryan comes in for his second start of the competition to partner Devin Toner in the second row.

Farrell is the only expected change in the backline with a back three of Rob Kearney, Keith Earls and Jacob Stockdale.

Bundee Aki will almost certainly partner Farrell in midfield with Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray again the half-back combination.

Ryan will pack down with Devin Toner in the lock positions, Stander joins Peter O’Mahony and Dan Leavy in the backrow.

Elsewhere on the replacements bench, the versatile Fergus McFadden is tipped to get the nod over Jordan Larmour for the number 23 jersey.

Wales Coach Warren Gatland will take’s charge of Wales for his 100th Test this week in Dublin. He will have been pleased with the way his new look Welsh team performed at Twickenham shutting out England in the second half before succumbing to a narrow defeat.

Wales recovered well from a shaky start but never took control of the game and didn’t take their chances. Patchell missed an early penalty and then there were two kickable penalties spurned with kicks to touch where maybe the more reliable kickers Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny could have put England under greater pressure and kept the scoreboard ticking over.

Wales will move on from Twickenham with a high degree of optimism and Head coach Warren Gatland has recalled a trio of players with 180 caps of Wales experience to take on Ireland in Dublin which will certainly mean that Ireland can’t take anything for granted.

Dan Biggar has given Wales' NatWest 6 Nations hopes a lift by returning from injury for Saturday's clash against Ireland in Dublin.

The Ospreys fly-half has recovered from a shoulder problem that ruled him out of Wales' opening two games against Scotland and England.

Biggar returns to the starting line-up instead of Rhys Patchell, who after an encouraging game against Scotland was found wanting in many areas against England and was substituted after 55 minutes. Patchell drops completely from the match day 23 while there are two other changes from the side beaten 12-6 by England at Twickenham just 10 days ago.

Biggar features for the first time since he was hurt during the Ospreys' European Champions Cup defeat against Clermont Auvergne last month.

He will be undoubtedly short of match fitness so it wouldn't surprise me if Anscombe appears for most of the second half. I think Patchell has some great skills but he has simply not learnt to boss games yet and Dublin in what is pretty much a cup final game for Wales probably isn't the best place for him to develop.

Personally, I think this is a disappointing and risky selection and I would have preferred to see Cardiff Blue Gareth Anscombe start at Outside Half after an excellent individual display against England. The issue, however, is whether Biggar can also fit into the new attacking style Wales have been adopting with ball in hand.

They have gone down a particular path during this Championship with a new off-loading, free-wheeling wide game and it’s a route which has garnered widespread popular support and with clear results and progress.

The question is whether Biggar can complement that style in the way Rhys Patchell did against Scotland and Gareth Anscombe did in the final 25 minutes at Twickenham or disrupt things?

Anscombe does at least retain a place on the bench and will be a dangerous playmaking game changer option for Wales alongside Northampton wing George North who remains on the bench with Gatland opting for a back-three of Halfpenny, Williams and Steff Evans.

Full-back Leigh Halfpenny has recovered from a foot infection and replaces the outstanding Gareth Anscombe. Given the missed goal kick opportunities last match, it is no surprise then that Warren Gatland has brought back the 75-cap Wales international immediately back into his squad at the earliest opportunity while Saracens wing Liam Williams is in for Worcester's Josh Adams. Adams is another who doesn’t make the match day 23 despite a strong game and a try for Worcester last weekend in their win over Gloucester.

Williams, meanwhile, suffered an abdominal injury during the autumn campaign and has not played for Wales since they beat Georgia in November.

Gatland has named an unchanged pack for the trip to Dublin. The all-Scarlets front-row of Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Samson Lee feature for a third consecutive game. Cory Hill partners captain Alun Wyn Jones in the second-row with Aaron Shingler, Josh Navidi and Ross Moriarty comprising the back-row.

Number eight Ross Moriarty, had raised concerns about his fitness as he missed Gloucester's Aviva Premiership game against Worcester last weekend after suffering a shoulder knock.

The game still comes too soon for another injury victim - Lions No 8 Toby Faletau, who has resumed training after a knee injury but is desperately short of match fitness. The dynamic No.8 will feature for his club side Bath as he continues to recover from knee injury which has kept him on the side-lines since early December.

It's a strong and dangerous looking Welsh team. Ireland will have to be up to it - both mentally and physically - to prevail. I can’t see the Irish backs scoring too many tries against that backline and Wales have serious pace in attack. The Welsh tight five has added a hard edge to it and they are very strong at scrum and lineout so it’s hard to see Ireland gaining a real advantage there either. I think it’ s going to be a really tough low scoring game and Ireland will need the crowd to do their job to see this one home.

I think Ireland tend to rely far too much on Sexton and Murray hoofing the ball and hoping Keith Earls gets there’s before a defender. That probably won’t work against this Welsh side and with two first class kickers in their line-up, any penalty transgressions will likely be punished with 3 points.

There are times as a pundit and blogger you have to take a risk and I feel this Welsh team fear no one right now. The English defeat was almost a moral victory of sorts given the lengthy injury list and controversial TMO call, so the men in red travel with a swagger despite the do-or-die nature of the contest. The loss of Furlong and Henderson are huge for Ireland so I am going stick my neck out and call for a rare away victory. Welsh win in a tight and nail biting match.

Ireland 23 Wales 27

Scotland v England

The final match of week 3 sees the 125th competition for the Calcutta Cup. Since the cup was first competed for in 1879, England have won 71 times to Scotland’s 39 and Scotland are looking to reclaim the Calcutta Cup by defeating England in the Six Nations for the first time since 2008. They have gone a decade without a win over the Auld Enemy, with only 3 wins and a draw to show for their efforts in the last 25 meetings while their last try in Edinburgh against the English came all the way back in 2004.

They will certainly want to erase the memories of last season where one of their heaviest defeats saw Scotland lose by a 40-point margin - 61–21

Head Coach Gregor Townsend will be only too aware of just how impressive England have become in recent times under Eddie Jones, with just one defeat in the last two years. The return to Murrayfield is a match they must win to retain any realistic chance of a share in claiming the Six Nations title.

It was a much more encouraging performance in round 2, but Scotland still twice trailed by 10 points against Les Bleus, but fought back – thanks in large part to the boot of Greig Laidlaw – to record a 32-26 victory.

Townsend might have been tempted to mix things up after the win over France to keep his team on his toes but instead he has kept faith with the players and it is the same XV who lined up against Les Bleus who get the nod once again.

That means that Greig Laidlaw remains at scrum-half after his man-of-the-match display against France. Laidlaw had finished that game at fly-half, partnering Ali Price, but he will continue in the No.9 jersey from the start.

Five of the backline are British and Irish Lions - Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour, Sean Maitland, Finn Russell and Greig Laidlaw, while there are three new faces on the bench as WP Nel, Tim Swinson and Nick Grigg all come into the match-day 23.

Of the three changes on the bench, Nick Grigg's inclusion is perhaps the most striking choice. Where WP Nel and Tim Swinson are both returning from injury, Grigg is rewarded for some fine recent form with club side Glasgow.

The 25-year-old centre won his only cap to date on last summer's tour in a clash with Fiji, and now comes into the 23 in place of stuttering Chris Harris.

Townsend will be delighted to be getting some of his experienced forwards back fit again, most notably WP Nel, who last played for Scotland in the Championship in 2016 and has been battling injuries.

The tighthead prop comes straight back onto the bench to provide cover for Simon Berghan, while Tim Swinson's outing for the Warriors last weekend earns him the nod in place of Ben Toolis.

Flying full-back Blair Kinghorn is also on the bench once more and could make his international debut after being an unused replacement last time out.

Eddie Jones' white shirted warriors have racked up two wins from two games thus far and England have every right to be confident ahead of their trip to Edinburgh. They can be very satisfied with their win over Wales as they kept a spirited Welsh side try less at Twickenham but will want to continue their momentum towards a historic third consecutive Six Nations title. 

The Calcutta Cup clash will register milestones for Joe Launchbury and captain Dylan Hartley. Launchbury is to win his 50th England cap, having made his debut against Fiji in 2012, while Hartley becomes the nation's second most capped player by surpassing the 91-appearance mark set by Jonny Wilkinson.

Having spent plenty of time on the side-lines, Nathan Hughes has returned to fitness at the perfect time for England head coach Jones.

Sam Simmonds, a double try-scorer in his side's 46-15 triumph over Italy in Round One, has been ruled out with a shoulder injury but Wasps man Hughes, who has missed the last six weeks with knee ligament damage sustained on club duty for Wasps in December; will start at number eight in the only change to Eddie Jones' starting team.

Simmonds was withdrawn at half-time of the 12-6 victory over Wales and is expected to miss the remainder of the Six Nations.

Billy Vunipola, England’s first choice in the position, is still unavailable because of a broken arm but the Fijian-born Hughes offers similar ball-carrying threat compared to the lighter and more mobile Simmonds.

Jonathan Joseph has edged Ben Te'o to retain his starting place at outside centre and, apart from Hughes' return, the pack remains the same.

On the bench, Joe Marler replaces Alec Hepburn after serving a six-week ban for a dangerous clear-out and will provide cover for loosehead prop Mako Vunipola, but the replacements otherwise remain unchanged.

Any match between these two teams is going to be confrontational, and notoriously the weather is not going to help with that.

Scotland will be well organised but it is unlikely they will be quite as hard out of the blocks as Wales were at Twickenham. I expect that there will be more opportunities for George Ford to get close to the line and bring in attacking players around him, which didn’t really happen in the last game.

England's defence is well organised and has a habit of snuffing out the attacking threats from most teams conceding just 21 points so far in 160 minutes of rugby in the 2018 NatWest 6 Nations.

In the open play, England have a habit of often not competing for ball at the rucks and being happy to be in the defensive line, making big hits and pushing teams back, rather than competing and giving penalties away.

A lot will depend on the Edinburgh weather. If it’s wet and slippery then any team trying to steal those balls on the ground is dangerous and the referee is going to give advantage to the attacking side.

If it’s a dry day then there is a very fast line that England could create in defence and that will give good opportunity for their formidable forward pack to compete and win ball at the breakdowns.

Both teams will want a well-functioning line out and don’t expect either team to be doing anything too fancy in the set piece, they will want to win their own set pieces well and put pressure on without being ill disciplined at the scrum and trying to nick the ball at the lineout.

Scotland were better against France but I don’t expect England to slip up and their forward power will be far too much for the weaker Scottish pack. Heart and belief won’t be enough to upset the England juggernaut and I expect a comfortable England victory

Scotland 16 England 24

-->