Six Nations Round 5 – A Dead Rubber

Six Nations Round 5 – A Dead Rubber

Congratulations to England for securing the 2016 Six Nations championship with a clear and deserved win over Wales. That leaves the Round 5 matches as a dead rubber for the first time for many years.  

It was said that when New Zealand learn how to win World Cups again they would be unbeatable for some time. That has been proven with back-to-back World Cups. Could the same be also true for England in the Six Nations? They have the money, more players than anyone, a league competition made up of majority English qualified players and a new coaching team with the vision to develop and grow their game.

After seeing England dominate in this (admittedly) poor Six Nations tournament, one has to believe they can kick on and get even better in future. Not since the 2003 England Grand Slam has an England team looked superior in almost every facet in the Six Nations and this is only the start of Eddie Jones reign in charge. As a Welshman, this prospect of England dominance fills me with dread but I won’t take anything away from England they have been the best team by some margin and deserved and worthy winners.

The great news in Round 4 was that we had three quality matches where Northern hemisphere rugby can finally hold its head up. Your correspondent is sitting with a 75% accuracy record with 9 out of 12 matches predicted correctly. With a final weekend dead rubber in prospect, lets take one last look at the tournament's last fixtures.

WALES v ITALY

Just how bad were Wales in that first half in Twickenham? Nineteen missed tackles by a team which bases its game on strong defence was not exactly encouraging. The Welsh threequarters looked like they had met in the Pub 5 minutes before the match started and too many of their stalwarts had exceptionally poor games. Alun Wyn-Jones had his worst game in a Welsh shirt. Scott Baldwin was simply abysmal at the line out and Lydiard and Warburton largely anonymous. 

Coach Warren Gatland belittled his team in the post match comments and they frankly deserved it. Despite two late tries, Wales were well beaten and if they had won the match it would have been a total travesty.

So where do they go from here? Gatland stuck with the same coaching team after the world cup and that is looking like a huge mistake. A poorly executed game plan with aimless kicking and a poor chase left England with far too much space and too easy an opportunity to attack. 

There is little attacking flair shown by this Welsh team and Gareth Davies was simply awful in passing the ball quickly and Wales were ill-disciplined and gave away far too many easy penalties which gave them a mountain to climb second half.

Warren Gatland has refused to press the panic button and has made just four changes to his starting Xv, three of which are injury related.

Alun Wyn-Jones has a foot injury and will be out for six weeks with a heel injury, winger Alex Cuthbert has a foot injury and Captain Same Warburton has not recovered from the concussion sustained in the battle against England

Rhys Webb returns at scrum half with Gareth Davies taking his place on the bench. Webb made an impressive cameo against England after his lengthy layoff and I am pleased to see him start as his quick passing will give Wales more space and superior game vision will hopefully re-ignite the misfiring Welsh back line.

The most surprising change is the call up of Dragons’ flyer Hallam Amos to right wing just a few weeks after Gatland apparently dismissed his chances as a test winger. Cardiff Blues Tom James was the other candidate in contention and he can feel a little aggrieved not to return to the team after his reasonable outings in the first two matches this tournament.

Luke Charteris replaces Jones and will form a new 2nd Row partnership with Bradley Davies. Justin Tipuric replaces Warburton with Dan Lydiate surprisingly taking over the Captain’s armband.

The choice of Lydiate in particular is an odd one although he does have experience at the Dragons and Lydiate's previous Wales captaincy experience came in a midweek match against Eastern Province Kings on Wales' 2014 South Africa tour. Gatland has now turned to him to re-inspire the wounded Welsh for a game that will secure the Six Nations runners-up spot behind England if Italy are successfully despatched. I would have though Dan Biggar and Jamie Roberts would have been more likely choices.

On the bench, the deserved eight-match ban for Tomas Francis brings up Aaron Jarvis as the replacement tight head prop. Gethin Jenkins returns for injury to replace Paul James and Gloucester’s aggressive Ross Moriarty is brought back for a potential cameo as an impact forward. 

I can’t help but feel Gatland is missing an opportunity here to build for the future. I would have given Gareth Anscombe a start at outside half just to see whether or not he is really capable for stepping up at international level. Starlets uncapped scrum half Aled Davies should have been given bench time and I would have started Moriarty. There is little at stake for Wales other than pride and the chance to assess again some of the squad’s fringe players has been missed imho.

Italy has problems of their own with the news that the very impressive centre Michele Campagnaro out injured.

Exeter's Campagnaro has started all Italy's 2016 Six Nations games and scored two tries on their 2014 visit to Cardiff.
Martin Castrogiovanni will win his 119th cap as one of five changes to the starting Italy XV that will face Wales.

Prop Castrogiovanni returns from a two-week ban for stamping on Scotland's Duncan Taylor and his inclusion will be a huge boost as departing coach Jacques Brunel looks forward to his final game in charge of the Azzurri.

Italy travel to Principality Stadium looking for a first win of the 2016 RBS 6 Nations and in addition to the old warhorse Castrogiovanni, Brunel has made four other alterations.

Fly-half Tommaso Allan will make his first appearance of 2016 for the Azzurri after recovering from a long-term injury while outside centre Andrea Pratichetti replaces the Campagnaro. It is also a completely new pairing in the 2nd row engine room with Zebre duo Quintin Geldenhuys and Valerio Bernabo replacing George Biagi and Marco Fuser.

Italy earlier lost Edoardo Padovani, Lorenzo Cittadini and George Biagi through injuries suffered in defeat by Ireland.

Italy will be playing their final Six Nations game under coach Jacques Brunel, with Harlequins boss and former Ireland full-back Conor O'Shea expected to take over and boy do they need fresh ideas.

Italy were totally outclassed by Ireland and that tight and impressive game against France in Round 1 is now looking like a fluke and a distant memory. Italy has been simply lamentable and renewed calls for promotion and relegation to the Six Nations can’t be far away. 

I expect Wales to want to brush away the memories of the Twickenham debacle and I fear Italy are in for a real hiding. Anything other than a total domination by Wales will be seen in a negative light by the uber-critical Welsh fans. 

Gatland and Shaun Edwards rarely get it wrong two games running so expect lots of champagne rugby and a comfortable Welsh victory.

WALES 42 ITALY 9

IRELAND v SCOTLAND

Ireland were back to some sort of form with an impressive runaway victory over Italy last round. The Irish dominating in all facets of the game and were hugely impressive running in nine tries in their 58-15 victory.

Replacement scrum-half Kieran Marmion came on for his Six Nations debut, while prop Finlay Bealham was introduced for his Irish debut.

His arrival meant that Connacht had five players on the field for the first time in the professional era on a day when Ireland showed what they are capable of, albeit way too late to mount a defence of their Six Nations crown.

Scotland were equally impressive in coming back from conceding an early try against France to also run out impressive winners and it is with some relish that we look forward to this Saturday’s battle at the Aviva Stadium.

Tommy O’Donnell will start for Ireland as Irish coach Joe Schmidt opts to make just one change to the side that beat Italy. Munster flanker O'Donnell missed the World Cup with a dislocated hip, but has battled back to full fitness and form

The Munster flanker comes in for Josh van der Flier with the Leinster man, who made his debut against England at Twickenham, dropping out of the match-day squad, with boss Joe Schmidt obviously mindful of countering Scotland's impressive breakdown work.

Rory Best has won his fitness battle to captain Ireland for the 5pm kick-off. The Ulster hooker has shaken off a calf niggle in time for the final Six Nations battle, with Ireland aiming to salvage a third-place finish from a frustrating, injury-hit campaign.

Simon Zebo again starts at full-back as expected with Rob Kearney again side-lined with hamstring trouble, while Keith Earls will win his 50th cap on the left wing.

Connacht's talented 22-year-old lock Ultan Dillane has another chance to impress off the bench, while fit-again Cian Healy and Eoin Reddan are restored to the replacements after missing last weekend's rout of Italy.

For Scotland, Vern Cotter has made three changes to his Scotland line-up as he looks to sign off the 6 Nations campaign with an unheard of third straight victory.

Duncan Weir replaces Finn Russell at stand-off after his Glasgow team-mate was ruled out with concussion in last weekend's 29-18 win over France.

With Jonny Gray also unavailable after suffering a torn pectoral muscle against Les Bleus, Tim Swinson steps up from the bench to partner Gray's brother Richie in the second row.

Ryan Wilson also returns to the starting line-up in place of Josh Strauss, who drops to the bench despite a decent display against France.

Weir last started for Scotland against South Africa in Newcastle during last year's World Cup; where a scintillating break from his own half led to a Tommy Seymour try.

He will partner captain and scrum-half Greig Laidlaw, who will surpass former prop David Sole's record of 25 outings as Scotland skipper.

The pack is completed by the return of ever-present front-row trio Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford and Willem Nel, who start their fifth consecutive match of the championship.

In the backs, centres Alex Dunbar and Duncan Taylor return to midfield while the back-three of Seymour, Tim Visser, and Stuart Hogg return for a third time in a row.
Cotter has made two further changes to the replacements, with Rob Harley coming on to the bench place vacated by the promoted Swinson, while Henry Pyrgos has been named as replacement scrum-half for what could be his first Scotland appearance since his post Rugby World Cup wrist surgery taking over from the unfortunate Sam Hidalgo-Clyne.

The Edinburgh player has tasted just three minutes of action after being on the bench for all four Six Nations matches to date.

Pyrgos inclusion means there are 11 Warriors players in the match-day 23. Peter Horne, who excelled after taking over from Russell just five minutes into last Sunday's Test, has to settle for a place on the bench again

Expect a very tight battle. Scotland will be confident in the scrums and if Ireland don’t get their kicking game right then expect Hogg, Visser and the improving Tommy Seymour to run at them with vigour with frequent gain line breaks. 

Ireland have to be patient and break down the Scots and hope for lots of misdemeanours from the Scottish pack.

This is a very hard game to call and my head says Ireland won’t lose at home; my heart is with Scotland after three good performances.

Ireland just holding on but a tight one

IRELAND 19 SCOTLAND 15

FRANCE v ENGLAND

England go to Paris safe in the knowledge that the silverware is already their property and can now go all out for a Grand Slam. The maturity shown by Eddie Jones team is a far cry from the broken and dispirited team, which was thrashed by Australia in the World cup. Quite honestly, the turnaround of a good team into a great team has been very impressive and a clear endorsement of the new regime and believe coach Eddie Jones has brought to the Rose.

Eddie Jones has made just two changes to his side for Saturday's match against France in Paris.

Mako Vunipola is picked ahead of Joe Marler at loose-head prop while Danny Care replaces Ben Youngs at scrum-half. Marler drops to the bench, as does Youngs and they join Manu Tuilagi, Elliot Daly, Jack Clifford, Joe Launchbury, Kieran Brookes and Luke Cowan-Dickie as replacements.

One can’t help but think that Marler has been dropped after his brain dead outbreak in the last match. The constant focus on his alleged racist remarks has unfairly taken some of the shine of what has been a great 5 weeks for England Rugby.  The “Gypsy Boy” saga isn’t closed and World Rugby has opened up a new inquiry in why the Six Nations committee has taken no action.

I would expect World Rugby to add their own sanction as there is no place for racist taunting in to today’s modern game.

As for France, what can you really say?
Guy Noves has tried to play an expansive attacking game but honestly he doesn’t seem to have the talent in his squad to execute the game plan. 

In Edinburgh, France had the perfect start with an early try and yet they never moved on from it and never dominated the Scottish side. 
After falling behind, there was a return to the dark days with the usual French trait of heads going down and a rising error count. Giant replacement prop Uini Atonio caused Wales some scary moments when he was introduced but was completed out-scrummaged by Scotland.

Any team with talent like Fickou and Fofana should be feared but France are really not firing and it is very difficult to see them causing England any real problems.

Les Bleus coach Guy Noves has responded to last weekend's defeat to Scotland at Murrayfield by drafting Loann Goujon and Bernard Le Roux into the back row.

Damien Chouly switches to blindside flanker to make room for Bordeaux-Begles number eight Goujon to win his 10th cap.

Gone from the 29-18 defeat in Edinburgh are flankers Yacouba Camara and Wenceslas Lauret, but the rest of the side is unchanged as France seek to bounce back from successive RBS 6 Nations defeats to Scotland and Wales.

The other changes come on the bench as prop Xavier Chiocci is recalled following injury to Vincent Pelo while lock Paul Jedrasiak returns as a replacement.

The backline remains unchanged however - Maxime Machenaud and Francois Trinh-Duc are retained at half back.

France have a dangerous back line and have the talent to cause anyone problems. Do they believe they can really win? 

England have a dreadful record of blowing Grand Slams in the final match but is hard to see this side folding and yielding to France despite England’s uninspiring away record in Paris.

I actually think this game will either be close and tight or England will run away with it. The latter looks like the most likely scenario, but France always have at least one good game in them in every championship and they could still cause what would be a massive upset given their lack of form and confidence shown this season.

England win by a cantor.

FRANCE 11 ENGLAND 29