Six Nations 2016 Round 3 - Get Ready For A Surprise!

If anyone was expecting things to improve in Round 2 of the 2016 Six Nations Tournament they will have been bitterly disappointed at the standard of rugby on display. The cloud of gloom and despondency which has hung over the Northern Hemisphere teams since their dismal World Cup performances has not lifted at all and but for 30 minutes in Rome – all six matches have been well below par.  Sure there have been flashes of inspiration but for the most part every team has under-performed well below its capabilities.

So what can we expect in Round 3? I am not expecting a massive transformation in the standard of play but I am certain after a week break that some slow marginal improvements will be in evidence. Let's look forward to this weekend’s matches:

WALES v FRANCE

First up on Friday evening in Cardiff is the clash between Wales and France. Wales have played in every Friday night fixture in the Six Nations and comments have been widespread in the press this week that the Principality Stadium is being over-used for Friday games.

Personally I am not a fan of Friday night rugby. It means time off work for many people and the after match celebration is muted as the late kick offs leave minimal time to enjoy the victory.

The Principality Stadium will again have its roof closed and Wales will be hoping for a repeat of their last Friday night encounter in 2014 when Wales were comfortable winner by a margin of 26-7.

Wales showed signs of improvement against Scotland but not enough for anyone to feel that the dreariness of their game in Dublin was a one off aberration. Wales were poor again in the first half against the Scots but the Scrum held up well to give Taulupe Faletau a deserved try and George North looked much more like his old self with an excellently taken opportunity.

The final score line flattered the Scots as Wales let in a soft final try and overall Coach Warren Gatland will be pleased to get that banana skin out of the way and step up a gear against France.

Wales make three changes to the team, which beat Scotland. In the back row, the experiment of playing two open side flankers has been disappointing and inconclusive so Warren Gatland recalls the defensive giant Dan Lydiard to the No.6 jersey with Sam Warburton reverting to Open side and Justin Tipuric relegated to the replacements.

Wasp’s Bradley Davies is recalled to the 2nd Row with Luke Charteris out due to a knee injury. Charteris was not involved for Racing 92 against Grenoble last Saturday, and his loss will be a blow to unbeaten Wales, given the impression he made in opening Six Nations appointments with Ireland and Scotland. Scarlets aggressive 2nd row Jake Ball returns from injury to take a place on the bench.

Centre Jonathan Davies, however, will feature alongside Jamie Roberts in midfield after concerns about his fitness as he missed his club Clermont Auvergne's league game against Castres three days ago because of a groin problem. Rhys Priestland is another who was also a concern but fortunately he has shaken off the dead leg he suffered during Bath's Aviva Premiership defeat against Wasps last weekend

The final change is a little more controversial. Tom James drops completely out of the match day squad as he loses his starting place to Alex Cuthbert. Cuthbert has been struggling with his form for a year now but has shown some signs of recovery and in last weekend’s club match with James he looked the sharper of the two players.  James has not looked entirely comfortable in either of the two matches in the red jersey but he also did little wrong and will be upset at losing his place. Given his previous outbursts when Gatland has dropped him – it will be interesting to see how he reacts. One hopes that with age comes maturity and he will shrug it off and look to fight to regain a place for the crucial game against England in two weeks time.

Many will be shocked at Cuthbert’s recall as Dragons flyer Hallam Amos is ignored again but Gatland has a tendency to stick with what he knows and Cuthbert for him at least is a safe choice.

France were poor again in their match against Ireland but at least they recorded a victory against a team they had struggled against in recent encounters. The match is Paris was absolutely dire. The weather wasn’t helping but neither team showed any real flair and France squeaked home with late Maxine Medard try to gain a (just) deserved victory.

Guy Noves rings the changes for Wales with five changes to the team that defeated Ireland. Uncapped Stade Francais winger Djibril Camara will make his first start for Les Bleus coming in for the injured Teddy Thomas. Elsewhere, Noves finally loses patience with the stuttering Sebastien Bezy and rightly recalls Maxime Machenaud at scrum half. Machenaud was instrumental in sparking France for the win against Ireland and deserves his first start in the 2016 competition.

Antoine Burban, Paul Jedrasiak and Rabah Slimani also feature in the starting XV with Bezy, Uini Atonio and Yoann Maestri all dropping down to the bench, while fly half Francois Trinh-Duc is also named among the replacements on his return to the squad.

Wales have not fired at all well in the early stages of their matches so far and it will be critical that they open this match at a high tempo. France has suspect fitness and the Welsh defensive game should and superior cardio-vascular performance should give them the edge in the second half. France have got a good line-out and scrum and some big ball-carriers, They have a little bit of experience but have also got a bit of the unknown. Guy Noves hasn’t really been tested at this level as a coach and this is a big game for the coach. How he uses the talent on his bench will be critical if France are to get any kind of result in Cardiff.

The scrums will be an interesting area to watch. Wales have scrummaged well in both the other matches but will be stepping up a level against France who have also shown significant progress in the scrums. Line out ball with be critical and Wales will miss the giant Charteris who has been such a dominant disrupting figure to opposition lineouts.

The Welsh back row shows a much better balance with Lydiard and Warburton either side of the excellent Faletau. Faletau is on track to be in consideration for the player of the tournament for me with some strong attacking play and a peerless defensive game with 33 tackles and no misses in the opening encounters.

Wales should have too much guile and ability for this French team and I don’t see a close contest this time. France will fold like a pack of cards and a comfortable Welsh victory will set them up for the title decider at Twickenham on 12^th March. Wales have everything to play for and I’m predicting they will win by sixteen points

Wales 30 France 14

ITALY v SCOTLAND

Scotland head to Rome once again hoping to avoid defeat and try and get their Six Nations campaign started.  Defeat for Scotland on Saturday would make it ten on the bounce in the RBS 6 Nations. It is critical they go into the match playing to win rather than playing not to lose. This could be the critical difference between a victory and another morale-sapping defeat.

Coach Vern Cotter has had to deal with a series of injury issues in the build-up to traveling to Rome, with Blair Cowan and Sean Maitland already ruled out of the game.  Scotland make just one change to the team which narrowly lost to Wales with Harlequins wing Tim Visser returning straight back into the starting lineup from injury.   Sean Lamont moves to a much-changed bench, which includes uncapped Edinburgh loose-head prop Rory Sutherland.

Tight-head Moray Low, and flanker Ryan Wilson are also named among the replacements whilst Gordon Reid, Zander Ferguson, Duncan Weir, Ruaridh Jackson and the injured Blair Cowan drop out of the match-day 23.

Full-back Stuart Hogg and wing Tommy Seymour are fit after suffering knocks in Cardiff, while Duncan Taylor retains the number 12 jersey ahead of fit-again Matt Scott after a strong outing against Wales.

For Italy, they competed well against an error-prone England for 45 minutes before throwing it all away with a careless interception and then losing all defensive shape in the final 20 minutes against a powerful looking England attack.

Coach Jacques Brunel will be sweating over the fitness of fly half Carla Canna. The 23-year-old flyer went off during Italy's loss to England and has been struggling with a leg injury, while centre Giulio Bisegni has also been training separately from the squad with a calf problem he picked up at the weekend.  Canna has looked promising so far in the tournament, and his absence would be a real blow to Jacques Brunel There was better news over Marco Fuser and Alessandro Zanni who are both expected to be fit, while Michele Campagnaro and Josh Furno have joined the squad after playing on Saturday.

If he doesn't make it, the decision would come down to Edoardo Padovani, who made his debut against England, or Kelly Haimona, who was expected to be used more as a centre in the Championship.

The other debate comes at hooker where Ornel Gega has had to pull out through injury. Davide Giazzon was the replacement against England but might be leapfrogged by fit-again Leonardo Ghiraldini.

David Odiete is also fit again and will be hoping to reclaim a starting role which he had in the opener in Paris although I would be tempted to stick with he trusted Luke McLean for this match.

This is a must win game for Vern Cotter. Defeat will send Scotland backwards into an inward looking crisis whilst victory will set them up with a chance of victory in the final two games against France and Ireland. Greig Laidlaw's team

are on a run of nine-in-a-row defeats, the second worst run in the championship in Scotland's 145-year history. Scotland lost six of those nine games by seven points or less. They lost eight of them against teams that few thought they would beat. The only game they lost that they were expected to win was Italy, at Murrayfield, last season.

They can bring it to an end that dismal run with victory in Rome this weekend, of course. They're good enough and they're favourites to do it. I expect Italy to front up in the pack and Scotland will need to continue the resolute defence they demonstrated for large spells against Wales. 

If Scotland concedes an early try then you have to fear for them. Italy are not renowned at goal kicking so the penalty count may not be the biggest fear factor.  A failure to secure their own line out and Italy dominating the scrums and it could be another bad day at the office for Scotland.  Ross Ford’s lack of precision with the throws caused a lot of issues against Wales and he cannot afford another poor game. Neither can Greig Laidlaw. His decision-making was poor against Wales and did not reflect his huge experiences. He needs a cool head and to keep his concentration for the entire 80 minutes of this potential firecracker.

I like the look of the Scottish threequarters and if they can secure enough ball then a win is surely in reach. Scotland to win but there will be plenty of squeaky bum moments

Italy 14 Scotland 23

ENGLAND v IRELAND

England will go into this match full of confidence after an exciting 20-minute display against Italy in Rome. England had a hard grinding mistake strewn first half before their superior guile, flair and fitness told with a decisive victory. That 20-30 minute spell in Rome is probably the only period of modest standard rugby so far in the Tournament and coach Eddie Jones will be pleased with the performance of his team in only his second match in charge of the Rose.

Coach Eddie Jones largely shows faith with team who did the business in Rome. There are just two changes to his side to the side to face Ireland. The impreesive Saracens forward Maro Itoje will make his full England debut and  is promoted to the starting XV for his second cap after Joe Launchbury was ruled out of the contest against the champions by a hamstring problem, with Courtney Lawes supplying second-row cover from the bench.

Itoje was very impressive during a second-half cameo at the Stadio Olimpico that lasted 28 minutes. The 21-year-old reinforced the Rose assault at blindside flanker, replacing Chris Robshaw, but has played most of his senior rugby at 2^nd row- the position from which he captained England to victory during the 2014 World Junior Championship.

He was set to feature on the bench against Ireland until Launchbury was ruled out by a hamstring injury on Wednesday afternoon, resulting in Lawes' return to the match day squad and clearing a path for Itoje to start.

The second change made to the starting XV that demolished Italy sees Joe Marler swap places with Mako Vunipola once again.

Wasp’s centre Elliot Daly is set to make his England debut against Ireland on Saturday after being named in Eddie Jones' squad for the Twickenham showdown. The uncapped Wasps centre has played four times for England Saxons and also represented England at under-18 and under-20 level and could be making his first appearance in the match-day 23 after Ollie Devoto was ruled out of the third round of the Championship with concussion. Daly has been the outstanding English centre in the Aviva Premiership this season and I believe he offers cover in both midfield positions and at full-back.

George Kruis is a key cog in the England machine as he prepares for a lineout battle that could prove pivotal at Twickenham this Saturday. Saracens man Kruis performed excellently in his country's two RBS 6 Nations wins against Scotland and Italy, even if Eddie Jones' men weren't exactly convincing in the lineout in Rome. 

England remain dangerous behind the pack with Jonathan Joseph showing outstanding pace and guile against Italy and Watson and Nowell providng threats from the wing.

Ireland has performed pretty much as I expected in this tournament.  Hopes of a third title are now expired and they were relieved to have the draw with Wales but the Paris rain demonstrated their lack of strength in depth as injuries continue to decimate the Irish squad.

I expect Joe Schmidt to be bold and make some substantial changes for the visit to HQ. Schmidt will be pleased to see Mike Ross and Cian Healy both come through last weekend’s Pro 12 clashes and there must be a temptation to start them against England. Schmidt's selection headache has again been worsened through injury. Mike McCarthy, Dave Kearney and Sean O'Brien have all been ruled out of the remainder of the RBS 6 Nations, while Jared Payne's fitness remains a doubt.

Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey must be up for start at Centre if  Jerrod Payne fails to overcome a hamstring problem and with the injuries in the 2nd row there is an outside chance he will start the giant Ultan Dillane. The 22-year-old Connacht lock is poised to make his Ireland debut in Saturday's Twickenham showdown. Paul O'Connell's retirement and long-term injuries to Ulster pair Iain Henderson and Dan Tuohy have severely depleted Ireland's stock of available 2nd row forwards

Munster's Donnacha Ryan could start against England, paving the way for the raw but talented Dillane to take a seat on Ireland's bench.

Payne's Ulster teammate Stuart McCloskey is in line to win his first cap

Craig Gilroy has been rewarded for his superb Ulster form and could come in for the injured Kearney and Schmidt will be thankful Tommy O'Donnell emerged unscathed from Munster's clash with Glasgow. O'Donnell will presumably start on the openside alongside Jamie Heaslip and CJ Stander, Schmidt will then have to choose between recalled Leinster forward Jordi Murphy and Rhys Ruddock to join the replacements.

Twickenham can be a caldron when England are confident but it will hold no fear for an Ireland team that no one expects to win. England should have too much power and I expect a comfortable England victory.

England 23 Ireland 14