As we reach Round four for the 2014 Six
nations, I think it is time to pause for reflection on what we have seen so far
as I think it sets the scene nicely for the titanic battles ahead of us this
weekend.
Your correspondent is having a good contest
– only Scotland’s brave comeback against Italy spoiled what would have been
100% accurate predictions of the games so far. What was less predictable has
been the margins of victory. When you assess the prospects of the teams before
the matches it is almost impossible to predict the margins of victory. I must
admit that the gaps between the teams have been quite surprising but its clear
a tight game does not necessarily mean a close game. In this era of increasingly
miserly defences, a single try scoring opportunity can be the difference
between winning and losing.
The other factor, which is perhaps underplayed,
is the benefit of home advantage. Of the nine matches to date, only two –
Scotland’s lamentable performance against England; and Italy’s narrow loss to
Scotland have gone against home advantage. England’s problem; and Wales’s too
for that matter; has been an inability to reproduce form away from home. Its
one thing to win in front of 70,000 of your own passionate supporters; it is
quiet another to enter a lions den and win away as New Zealand have found out
on their recent visits to Twickenham and Dublin.
The other area which is key is that no team can afford to go 10 points down and come back to win. Wales crumbled to a 16 point deficit in Dublin and never recovered, likewise France struggled to get back against Wales who opened an early 11 point gap. There simply isn't the time or space to play catch-up rugby these days.
This weekend is all about the Triple Crown
match at HQ and the other two matches fade into insignificance – so I will
apologise now for a primary focus on the biggest game – England v Wales.
ENGLAND v WALES
This match – like most years is almost too
close to call. I feel a sense of déjà vu coming on as didn’t I say that last year
before Wales record win? The reality is England v Wales games are always tight,
tense games but the recent history does not show narrow margins of victory. The
average over the past 10 meetings between the teams has been 12 points – which
is not close at all. At HQ, England’s recent record since 2006 against Wales
has been 3 wins and 2 defeats whilst Wales home record is more convincing with
4 wins and 2 defeats. Not sure you draw any conclusions from all this
statistical nonsense but it at least shows both teams unhealthy obsession with
the other.
The Darts legend Phil Taylor made a great
quote in the 2013 World Championship when he was told that Raymond Van
Barneveld when interviewed said he didn’t fear Taylor any longer. The Power’s
response summed it all up with “I think he does – otherwise why say it”. The
reason I bring this up as all week, England player after England player has
been interviewed saying they don’t fear Wales and revenge is on the cards for
last year’s hiding. I think deep down they are fearful of coming off the rails
again – this time at home against the dragon.
Wales have the weight of an entire nation
on their shoulders who expect almost demand; a superhuman effort against the
English. They are pretty much as full strength although the fitness of the
returning Jonathan Davies and Alun Wyn Jones cannot be all that great. With
Jenkins and Warburton seemingly back to full fitness and match awareness, the
Welsh will be confident with 2 wins at Twickenham in their last three matches
there.
For England – with the World Cup looming,
they have to win and win convincingly. Just one change forced on Lancaster as England
also shows loyalty and a stable team line up with Gloucester’s Ben Morgan
coming in for the injured Vunipola. The narrow win over Ireland showed great
heart and teamwork in grinding out a win and the fragility shown in recent
seasons looks like a distant memory. Mike Brown has been sublime at full back
and Danny Care has been a revelation at scrum half – probably the stand out
player of this championship.
For me, the game will be won or lost in the
forwards. Both teams will concede lots of penalties. England at the scrums,
Wales at the breakdown and rolling maul. Stuart Lancaster and Graham Rowntree
will have clearly seen how badly Wales performed in those areas in Dublin and
England will want to challenge Wales up front.
At front row, Wales look to have the clear
edge. Jones and Jenkins were both dominant against France and with the watchful
eye of referee Romain Poite – a renowned scrimmage assessor; they will feel
confident of giving Marler and Wilson a torrid time. In the 2nd Row,
England have the edge. The power of Lawes and Launchbury clearly stands apart from
the beanpole Charteris and the questionable fitness of Wyn Jones. In the back row – things are evenly matched.
Both Robshaw and Warburton need to stand up and have big games. Warburton was
superb against France whilst Robshaw has been dependable and a resolute leader
for the men in white. Wood and Lydiate will cancel either other out while
England will miss the power of Vunipola at No.8 and Wales will be relying on
Faletau as a key ball carrier.
At halfbacks, England has the edge. Care,
as mentioned earlier has been outstanding and has provided much cleaner,
quicker ball to the England back line. Farrell remains an enigma for me. I’m
not sure he is good enough for England to really get the benefit of their three-quarter
line. Rhys Webb looked sharp against France and deservedly given another
outing. Priestland is lucky to be there and he still looks like a frighten
rabbit when the pressure comes on him but his defensive prowess probably gives
him the edge over Dan Bigger.
In the three quarters – it is an intriguing
match up. Roberts has been playing well and with the returning Davies, North
returns to the wing. Twelvetrees and Burrell need big games or risk being
dominated by the more experienced, more powerful Welsh Centres.
The young England wingers have been
impressive and give England options that were not there last season with real
wingers able to switch play and hopeful confuse their opposite numbers.
Hwovere, both Nowell and May have also made mistakes at crucial times and they
cannot afford any slip-ups against the Welsh.
For Wales, Cuthbert is underrated and North
is till a very dangerous runner with ball in hand. At full back, Mike Brown
rains supreme this season whilst Halfpenny has been more subdued against
Ireland and Italy but had more openings against France. A little too early to
write him off and I do feel Halfpenny will have a strong game.
So – its cock-on-block time. Who will win?
It depends really on which Welsh team will turn up.- the meek lambs from Dublin
or the fire-breathing dragons from the French game? I fear the pressure will be too much for
Wales and momentum right now is very much with England. Home advantage will tell.
Reluctantly, I will call an England victory.
ENGLAND 26 WALES 17
IRELAND V ITALY
The Irish will be disappointed to lose
against England having competed strongly for most of the match. A welcome
return to Dublin will see confidence high and they will be hoping for a strong
show and convincing victory over a jaded looking Italian side.
Coach Joe Schmidt has stayed with largely
the same team – only injuries leading to a solitary change with Henderson in
for the stricken O’Mahony. I have to say I haven’t been that impressed with Ireland
other than the way they out thought a lumpen Welsh team. They didn’t dominate
against Scotland and despite hammering Wales – they really didn’t play that
well – it was more a case of how badly Wales performed. O’Driscoll is
undropable but is he really the best Ireland can play at Centre right now? I
don’t really think so. Its more nostalgia and I would have liked to see Schmidt
grow a pair and make some changes for this match.
Where Ireland have impressed as been in the
front row with four world class props who will have no fear of the famed
Italian scrimmage. Devin Toner has impressed in eth 2nd Row and
Chris Henry in the back row. Sexton continues to be the best fly half in the
Lions nations and they have enough firepower in the three-quarters to put Italy
to the sword.
For Italy; after the promise shown against
Wales and France; the home defeat in Rome to Scotland must have been crushing
to their morale and confidence. I really don’t think it suits Italy playing in
the Stadio Olympico. The vast bowl allows far more away fans to attend and it
lacks the crowd on the pitch feel of eth old Flaminio. It’s rather like
watching Southampton at football. A pretty team but how much more successful
would they be playing at the old Dell rather than the antiseptic all seater St.
Mary’s?
Italy need to regroup and fast. Parisse and
Zanni are devastating losses for them in the back row and Tommaso Allen pays
the price for an inconsistent game against Scotland. It is hard to be
optimistic here and Italy have not won in Dublin since 1997, and never in the
Six Nations. History is not going to change. Irish rout pending.
IRELAND 43 ITALY 9
SCOTLAND V FRANCE
Scotland showed great heart and character
coming back from behind to win in Rome.
I have to say I never saw that happening but hats off to them it showed
solid teamwork and they will go into this match with high confidence of a win
over France. What on earth is going on with their selection strategy though?
Kelly Brown is recalled at Captain and Dave
Denton is rightfully back at No.8 and Johnny Beattie is retained – moving to
flanker after a commanding performance in Rome.
Elsewhere – Scotland show more stability in
their back line which is solid if a little bereft of flair and ideas. Duncan
Weir had a solid game against Italy and the Gloucester-bound Laidlaw will
punish France for any misdemeanors within kicking range with metronomic
accuracy.
For France, they were simply woeful against
Wales and didn’t really show anything during that debacle in Cardiff. Louis
Picamoles was the most notable absentee player against Wales tacked out of the
game by a winger and he pays the price for his stupidity with his sarcastic
response to a yellow card. One has to applaud Saint- Andre for this brave
decision to drop him. His statement that "Certain
attitudes have no place whatsoever in our sport." sends a clear message that player behavior disrespecting officials
cannot be tolerated in our game.
France make seven changes in total for the clash
at Murrayfield. I’m not sure many of them really strengthen the French cause. Losing
both Keyser and Szarzewski at hooker is a big loss and the back row also looks very
strange with little to make Scotland fearful.
The cumbersome Sebastien Vahaamahina has not impressed in any of his previous outings and the combination
with Alexandre Lapandry and Damian Chouly will have Denton, Brown and Beattie
licking their lips at the opportunity ahead of them to dominate the French back
row.
France also loses two of their best players with Fofana and Nyanga out. The
experienced Maxime Mermoz who is a talented player in his own right but does
not have the X factor, which makes Fofana such a class act, replaces Fofana.
I believe Saint-Andre has it right recalling Machenaud at Scrum half as
Doussain has not impressed in his three games so far and is lucky to retain a
place on the bench ahead of Morgan Parra. Elsewhere Hugo Bonneval will feel disappointed
to be dropped for Maxime Medard who at least adds experience and will know his
team mate Huget well enough to allow them to change positions and add
creativity to the French back place which was so lamentable in Cardiff.
Scotland will have high confidence but France are unbeaten in the last
seven games against Scotland and Murrayfield should hold no fear. French win
but it won’t be pretty.
SCOTLAND 11 FRANCE 24
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