The excitement returns this weekend with the start of the Six Nations. This looks one of the more open tournaments of recent years with so many unanswered questions. Can Lancaster fire England back to the top? How will Scotland handle the pressure of being favourites against England? Which Wales will turn up? Can Ireland turn Heineken Cup form to Six Nations glory? Can Saint-Andrew re-fire the Gallic flair? How will Italy fare? I can’t wait for the action to start and looking forward to spending the first week in Dublin’s fair City. Lets see how I see the teams will perform this championship:
ENGLAND
Last year I predicted England would dominate the Six Nations and they didn’t quite live up to that billing but do start this season as defending champions. That’s right – .its not a joke, despite the summer exploits of an England side who resembled Old Huffpuffians 2nd XV on tour rather than the nation’s finest; England are the remaining champions. These are radical times for England. The World Cup was a well-documented shambolic disaster and other than Saracens, no English club has progressed in the Heineken Cup. It is a new look England side, which will take to the field in a cold and snow swept Murrayfield. The back line looks very exciting if inexperienced. England will be hoping to follow Wales’ example by relying on young flair to see them to victory. Foden, is solid at full back with the ability to snow real attacking flair for the back. Chris Ashton, despite being a total twat; is still a devastating finisher and I am delighted to see the return of the excellent Strettle. The Saracens pair of Owen Farrell and Brad Barritt looks truly exciting and England look to have a real threequarter line capable of threatening anyone. Unfortunately, you have to question whether the ball will reach them with enough time and space for them to be effective. The recall of Hodgson is a backwards step and shows the lack of options at 10. Youngs has had a mediocre season and is lucky that Dickson is not there ahead of him and for Care’s moronic driving exploits. It is in the pack that England look to be struggling. Corbiesero has been unimpressive in his England career to date. What is going to change? . Dan Cole was shown to be not quite as good as everyone thought. The 2nd row looks bare of talent with the loss of Lawes and Deacon. Tom Palmer will be partnered by the average Botha in Murrayfield. Hardly scary. Croft will cause some issues and Robshaw is a bold if brave choice as captain. England will fare rather better than many pundits wrong with a close run defeat in Murrayfield followed by a tough trip to the Stadio Olympico in Rome. The move to the larger stadium should favour England with their vast travelling support. A narrow win. Return to Twickers for the game of the tournament against Wales. This is going to be a thriller. A first home win for England in a titanic struggle. England will then travel to France with no fear. They have the best record at Stade De France but I can’t see England keeping up that record. Finally back to HQ to face an Ireland side going for the title. More tears for the rose at home and England will finish with a mere two wins.
Predicted Finish: 4th equal with Scotland with two wins
FRANCE
France have had a strange year. Defeat to Italy last year paved the way for what was going to be a tough World Cup. Lucky to get to the knock out stages after an abject display against Tonga, France put England to the sword and stuttered past Wales but surprised everyone with a spirited display in the final; They should have won had they had a referee who didn’t ware a black shirt and their defeat on Auckland will go down as one of the great sporting travesties. Move forward a few months and a new coach in Philippe Saint-Andre gives France great hope after the abysmal coaching of Livermont who clearly lost the dressing room. France have gone back to rely on the trusted players from Clermont and Toulouse who have led the way for France in the Heineken Cup. The back line looks full of class with Clerc, and Medard likely to be rip through many defences. In the pack Picamoles returns ahead of Harinordoquy at the back of the scrum. Traditional French bulk in the front five will dominate several teams and at last we have a traditional - scrum half/fly half combo instead of the crazy experiment with two scrum halves. Yachvili starts the first match and he has been in fine form despite a stuttering Biaritz. Francois Trinh-Duc is back at fly half and he has lots to prove after the terrible abuse he received in the past year. An easy win over Italy will lay to bed the ghost of last season’s shock defeat. Home wins over Ireland and England will be either side of a narrow away win in Scotland. France will arrive in Wales chasing a grand slam. Not to be as Wales will win but France will still end up champions.
Predicted Finish: 1st – Champions
IRELAND
What is it with Ireland and World Cups? Another summer disappointment where Ireland forgot who was their first choice at fly half. A fantastic win over Australia was followed by a directionless, leaderless team against Wales. Four months on, and we see Irish teams AGAIN dominating the Heineken Cup and few can see beyond Leinster and Munster for Rugby’s second European title. Can Ireland translate that to the Six Nations? An emphatic yes! The loss of Brian O’Driscoll is a positive step for Ireland. He has been carried for the past two season and despite sainthood in the emerald isle, his time is up. Earls has been a man on fire all season for Munster and the excellent Trimble returns. Sexton is back at fly half and will provide the flair to get the backs moving. Conor Murray is the new Peter Stringer! Intensely annoying at scrum half for all opponents and opposition supporters. Ireland have probably the strongest pack in the home nations. The front row is the only place where teams can cause Ireland problems. Healy is a makeweight at the scrum and Ross is hardly visible outside the scrum. Rory Best throws the line out like an Iranian skud missile. However, the “O’” second row of O’Connell and O’Callaghan remain amongst the worlds best and a very strong rampaging back row of Ferris, O’Brien and Heaslip will cause problems for everyone. Ireland will avenge their world cup defeat with a heavy defeat of an injury ravaged Wales. They will easily beat Scotland and Italy before losing in Paris. A Paddy’s day win over England won’t quiet be enough to take the title but it will be close!
Predicted Finish: 2nd
ITALY
"Italy get better every year" - was always one of the great sporting lies - a bit like saying Andy Murray will win one day win a Grand Slam event. That was the line I used last year. Well 12 months on. Andy Murray still wasn’t made that breakthrough but he is getting closer. Italy unfortunately are not showing the same progress. The enforced move to the Stadio Olympico whilst the Stadio Flaminio is rebuild will not help. Vast empty spaces will enable large numbers of travelling support and Italy will badly miss the tight environs of the smaller stadium. The team is based largely around the two Italian premier sides of Treviso and Aironi. Both teams have been causing a few surprises both in the RaboBank Pro 12 and the Heineken Cup. Sadly I don’t see that translating to the national side and I only see one opportunity for success. Scotland will not fancy going to Rome for the final match and it will be a tough match. England will also fear the Italians but will also be victorious. I don’t see an Italian win anywhere and they have gone backwards.
Predicted Finish: 6th – Wooden Spoon
SCOTLAND
Last chance saloon for Andy Robinson. Two years ago, Scotland were a few points away from a Triple Crown Last season we saw Scotland go badly backwards with a poor Six Nations followed by a poor World Cup. However, Edinburgh have played some of the some exciting rugby in the Heineken Cup and deservedly won their group. Glasgow also has shown great improvement. This Six Nations Scotland will be looking for and will see steady progress. The tag of favourites won’t suit them at all against the auld enemy. The retirement of Paterson gives Rory Lamont to cement himself at full back. Lee Jones deserves his chance on the wing after strong showings for Edinburgh. Ansbro will be missed at centre but Da Luca and Lamont are solid if uninspired. Dan Parks return at fly half will be controversial. He is heading away from Cardiff at the end of the season and he hasn’t exactly had the Blues back line firing. He does however have a good rugby brain and his short tactical kicking game is as good as anyone’s. He also has the critical ability to drop goals from anywhere in the 22. So all in all, a solid choice. Cusiter gets the nod at scrum half and it is also good to see him back. The Scottish pack is full of experience although Jacobsen and Murray have not been the force of previous years. Ross Ford is a great selection at captain. Scotland thrives on fast open back row forwards and Denton is an excellent choice as a new cap. Their side is heavily based around Edinburgh and Robbo will be hoping the side will show the same resilience and attacking flair. Scotland will see off England but it will be closer than many expect. They will go to Cardiff full of confidence and lose narrowly to the dragon smarting after Dublin defeat. It is difficult to see wins over either Ireland or France and it will come down to Rome. Scotland will prevail and two wins see them finish third – just ahead of England.
Predicted finish: 4th
WALES
Most exciting team at the World Cup or the most over=-hyped? BOTH. Wales proved me totally wrong last season where I couldn’t see Wales doing anything in the Six Nations. At the World Cup Wales failed to kill teams off. South Africa escaped first game and France should have been beaten despite the controversial sending off of Warburton. Big Sam is now clearly the World’s second best No. 7 and has been an inspired choice as captain. Wales have seen the last of Shane’s dancing feet and hopefully also the last of Gavin’s! His choice in the Welsh squad shows a lack of depth and Wales will be watching their growing injury list with some angst especially as they don’t have anything like the required strength in depth. Halfpenny will establish himself as the Lions full back with some string showings. The giant wings North and Cuthbert have genuine power and will score all day long given enough ball. Roberts’s injury is a worry but Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies are solid choices and Hook is the natural choice at 12 if he gets his head straight. Priestland is another automatic choice and the Welsh physios must have been praying all week he will be fit enough to start against Ireland. Phillips has been playing very well in France and Lloyd Williams is breathing down his neck. In the pack, Jenkins and Rees will be missing but Wales have been here before and got through. Paul James will pushed all the way by Saracen’s Rhys Gill for the loose head spot while Huw Bennett was a solid performer at the World cup. The loss of Chateris and Wynne-Jones is a big loss and Bradley Davies and Ian Evans will struggle to win regular good lien out ball. Lydiate is likely to miss at least one game, so Ryan Jones will likely start alongside Faletau and captain fantastic in a mobile back row. Wales will start with a disaster in Dublin. I can’t see Wales getting close to Ireland and a foresee a very heavy defeat. A bounce back over Scotland will be followed by a trip to HQ. Welsh hearts will again be broken and many a sorrow will be drowned in the Orange Tree after the game. A case of what might have been in London. Wales will rap up Italy and with it all to do they will win a narrow win over France to finish mid table.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
This weekend’s predictions:
France 33 Italy 6
Scotland 24 England 22
Ireland 27 Wales 9
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