Monday, March 15, 2010

Half way through the tournament and my predictions bang on so far.

An intriguing number of games this weekend to review:

Wales v France

I shall be heading down the M4 early today for the Friday night kick off. I have a natural dislike of Friday night club rugby and Friday night Six Nations is just wrong!

France looked very impressing in beating Ireland with some very powerful defence and they look a different class to everyone else. That said, this is France and you never know what will turn up on the day. Surely the French pack will be far too powerful for a Welsh set of forwards missing key players such as Gethin Jenkins, Rees at Hooker and Alun Wyn Jones. Golf Buggy Powell is dropped and Martyn Williams needs to show the form he had against England rather than Scotland for Wales to have any chance. Wales v France usually ends up with either a narrow Welsh win or a total rout by the French. I am delighted to see Richie Rees start at scrum half. Byrne needs a big game after two shockers against England and Scotland. Ha’penny and Shane will cause problems if they get the ball and Roberts and Hook starting to gel in the centre. So not all lost for Wales and they will run France close but no cigar. France by less than 5 points.

Scotland v Italy

Wooden spoon game. A shame for Scotland because they as predicted they have shown some definite improvement and competitiveness under Robinson. How will they recover from the mental angst of losing to Wales in the 80th minute? They cannot afford to lose backs like Patterson and Evans and they will struggle in Rome. Italy will be buoyed up by the way they disrupted England and will play their usual dull, pedantic forward dominated style. Italy to run riot with a 10-15 point gap over the wounded Sweaties.

England v Ireland

The big one! You cannot over-state the importance of this game for both teams. Are England building a dynasty under Johnson or will he shortly be dispatched to failed coaches club with Rowell, Robinson, and Ashton? My welsh upbringing usually leads me to support any team playing England but as you all know – I am not a fan of the over-hyped, Pikies. Forget England’s aberration against Italy. The Rose will cause problems up front and have the talent in the backs to cause some real damage. Men will be made in this match and reputations can be lost forever. Care v O’Leary is a great battle at scrum half. Dan Cole looks like the new Leonard at prop and Borthwick/Shaw solid in 2nd row. Back row will be a key battle ground as well with Ireland’s Ferris in top form against Haskell another area to watch closely. England’s problem is Jonny. His kicking from hand has looked awful in both matches so far. He has looked slow and ponderous and he isn’t getting his backs moving. The intelligent coach would be looking to switch Flutey and Wilkinson and play a 1st 5/8th and 2nd 5/8th combo in old Southern hemisphere style rather than Fly half/inside centre. There is no obvious replacement. With Cipriani on his way to Botany Bay, Hodgson and Goode are not the answer. So England have to get Flutey more in the game. Tait and Armitage need to stop the aimless kicking we saw in Rome and think more and Monye – needs to look for the pass rather than glory hunt on his own. As for Ireland, Bowe D’arcy, BoD look strong. It’s a big game for Sexton at Fly half. Will he have the bottle? I think it’s a brave selection. I’ve never rated O’Gara but he is the safe choice. Sexton could be the hero for Ireland. Murphy si a good full back but he’s not the player of 3-4 yrs ago. In the forwards, Flannery’s cynical foul means he sits this one out. Best is not the greatest replacement but he is better than Hartley. England should have brought Tommo or Mears in for this one. Ireland make a foolish change in 2nd Row with Leo Cullen cruelly dropped for O’Callaghan. Makes no snese for me as Cullen has been the rock in 2nd Row and outplayed O’Connell in both games so far. This will be a titanic battle. A England defeat again to the Pikies could well see Johnson on his way to the departure lounge but it won’t happen. England to win a tight game by less than 3 points.

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