SIX NATIONS 2014 – THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Six Nations 2014 starts next weekend with this year’s competition looking to be perhaps one of the tightest ever. It is undoubtedly going to be a tournament where men will be asked to step up to another level as the pride of wearing your Country’s jersey on the field of battle draws near. The autumn international were disanointing for all of the Northern Hemisphere’s finest except for the proud red rose of England. Whilst we have seen constant bickering over European club rugby it is not time to put that aside and gird the loins for the world’s greatest rugby competition. Your correspondent is back aiming to be providing even more insightful views and punditry. Lets see how I see the teams will perform this championship:

ENGLAND

England had a strong autumn with a good win over Australia and a narrow loss to the All Blacks. They came into last year’s tournament with a similar strong autumn and challenged for the title. Will they keep the momentum going into this tournament with another strong championship? I have to say they will and are on track to have a strong World Cup squad for 2015, Last year England looked like the real deal going into Cardiff but flattered to deceive with a really bad day at the office. With hindsight, the cracks were there through the five rounds and a narrow scrapped win over Italy was followed by the capitulation in Cardiff.

How have they built since then? Well all is looking strong in most positions although Coach Lancaster must still have doubts over the halfbacks, centres, and hooker but have has a strong array of talent to choose from and the strength in depth should be on his side. Lets start with the backs.

The loss of Tuigali (again) is not perhaps the big loss it appears. I am not a fan of the smash/kill Centre tactics and if Lancaster plays his cards right he could have a very strong set of backs.  Mike Brown has been in scintillating form for the Quins, and he must start as the prime full back. That is unfortunate for the talented Alex Goode but Brown is a shoe in for me. On the wings, Chris, Ashton will scrap in due to the absence of the excellent Marlond Yarde and Christian Wade, whilst Jonny May of Gloucester shows good pace and finishing and Anthony Watson from Bath may well be the wild card choice, At centres, Jonathan Joseph has looked very strong and his absence through injury give Luther Burrell a real chance. The autumn combination of Joel Tomkins and Twelvetrees just didn’t work. I would like to see Lancaster put Twelvetrees and Burrell together but if not then Matt Hopper from Quins may well get the green light with either of Burrell or Twelvetrees at 12.

At Outside Half, Owen Farrell, has yet to show real consistency and if he doesn’t show early, then I believe Lancaster will blood the excellent George Ford. He has been very consistent for Bath and a real talent.

At scrum half; Ben Youngs will likely get the nod ahead of Care and Dickson. Noon of the three have impressed me this season and I think this is a problem area for England. The backs will need quick ball and none of the choices is inspiring.

In the pack, Hartley has shown more consistency with his throwing and so should get the nod ahead of Tom Youngs. England have a plethora of world class second rows but I think front row may have a few issues. With Corbisero’s absence, I have not been impressed with either Joe Marler or David Wilson although Dan Cole continues to grow in stature and Mako Vunipola, whilst strong in open play is still a questionable scrummager.  The Guv’nor Geoff Parling is a massive loss and with his long-term absence I expect Courtney Lawes and Launchbury to be the first choice if they stay fit.  In the back row Billy Vunipola and Tom Wood will join Captain Robshaw.

England has a fantastic record in Paris and has nothing to fear but I feel they will come up second best against the French. Wins will follow in all the other matches with revenge over Wales perhaps the sweetest. In the end if will come down to points and tries scored as England will tie on 4 wins.

Predicted Finish: 1^st but no Grand Slam

FRANCE

France were so bad last year it was frightening just how far they fell from grace. However, you can never write them off and they had a reasonable autumn running the All Blacks very close and blooding lots of new men.

The absence of Thierry Dusautoir is a massive loss and the French squad lacks experience with more new caps likely than any other team. The exciting Jules Plisson has been a revelation at Stade Français and must be the starter at 10. Remi Tales has also impressed this season and France for once look to have options at half backs. In the threequaretrs, Wesley Fofana and Florian Fritz look to continue their centre partnership and France, as always, have many talented wingers and full backs to choose from. Up front is where France will be questionable.

Louis Picamoles has not been in the best form and with Dusautoir out, Yannick Nyanga will have to take on a bigger role in the back three. The French scrum will be solid and will certainly test England, but expect lots of penalties and questionable fitness.

I believe France will finally put to bed their Stade de France horror record against England will follow that with a comfortable home win against Italy. The fixture fairy has been kind to les bleus with two home games but the freezing Friday encounter in Cardiff. Wales will win that encounter and then it is a tough trip to Scotland before Ireland to finish. Expect 4 wins and they will challenge England hard for the title. Bridesmaids again when the table is completed.

Predicted Finish: 2^nd

IRELAND

Last season, Ireland destroyed Wales in the opening game and then frankly fell apart. The lowest point coming with defeat to Italy.  New coach Joe Schmidt will go into his first Six Nations with the aim of restoring faith in the Irish side and there will be lots of pride for the men in green to rub Gatland’s nose in the dirt and embarrass Wales in Dublin.

The Irish provinces are again on fire in the Heineken Cup and they should have high confidence coming into the competition but they had a poor autumn other than against New Zealand, and injuries and age are taking their toll on the side. Schmidt needs to be bold with his selections. Ian Keatley may be a wild card choice over the ageing Sexton as Madigan is unproven at the highest level.

The loss of Sean O’Brien is a massive one in the pack as are Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls in the backs. Time for some of the younger players to come through and I expect Schmidt to make a few surprises with Ulster’s Craig Gilroy and Luke Fitzgerald likely to be the two wingers of choice. O’Driscoll still can’t forget his Lions omission and he has been in fine form.

Personally, I feel Ireland don’t have the strength in depth and are ageing rapidly. The excellent Robin Coupland has been man of the season at Cardiff Blues and Schmidt should give him a run out in at least one game. Heaslip has a lot to prove after a poor tournament last year and a mediocre Lions tour. It is hard to see Ireland worrying either England or France for the title. They open with an easy victory over Scotland before facing Wales at Dublin. A narrow win over Wales will be followed by a defeat to England, a win over Italy and more heartache with a loss to the French. Three wins and mid table mediocrity.

Predicted Finish: 4^th

ITALY

Italy had an excellent tournament last year with great wins over Ireland and France and a narrow defeat to England. They had a very disappointing autumn with heavy defeats to both Argentina and Australia. Sergio Parisse and his team will be keen to put that behind them and will entre this Six Nations full of optimism. Unfortunately it will not be fulfilled. They have not progressed sufficiently to challenge any of the top 4 nations and I fear they will have a disappointing competition.

The fixture draw has not been kind to them and they start with difficult away games to Wales and France. Two defeats before they host Scotland, which once again remains their most likely chance of any result. You really don’t see them winning in Dublin and England will have Championship spoils in their nostrils when they face up in Rome. So one win at best is what we can see.

The evergreen Parisse has passed his 100 caps and will be the rock again behind the team is built. The retirement of LoCicero and the ageing Bergamasco and Castrogriovani remain solid performers but time is catching up with them and it is critical they blood new players.  Tommasso Allen and Michele Camopagnaro look like good young prospects and lets hope they can bring their youthful exuberance to the tricolors.

Predicted Finish: 5^th  – One Win

SCOTLAND

Scotland had their best Six Nations for many years in 2013 but have really failed to kick on. Quite frankly they were absolutely dire in the autumn game against South Africa.

Coach Scott Johnson is talking a good game and he has had the good sense to make the excellent Kelly Brown as his Captain for this competition.  The losses of Tim Visser and Ewan Murray are big ones and Scotland will once again have to call on a dwindling number of ageing veterans. John Beattie and John Barclay will have to carry the team in many games. Dave Denton is not the player he was two years ago and Scotland may well struggle with the new scrum laws.

It is such a familiar looking squad with few new talents emerging. Weir and Laidlaw are solid if unspectacular at half backs and their threequarters are hard to break but will not out fear into the opposition in the same way that a Jamie Roberts does for Wales or a Brian O’Driscoll for Ireland. Expect dogged, grindy performances.

An opening trip to Dublin is not really the start the doctor ordered and that is followed by the auld enemy England. Scotland will be hoping for a cold wet day and a rusty England but I don’t see it. England just have too much talent.

Hard to see wins after that against France or Wales and Italy away will be their rourkes drift moment. No wins and a wooden spoon I’m afraid.

Predicted finish: 6^th Wooden Spoon

WALES

Wales once again look like a country and a team in total disarray. The civil war situation between the WRU and the regional teams is tearing the sport apart and they y have completely failed to stop the player drain to France with Leigh Halfpenny the latest to depart.

Again, a poor autumn and the Welsh Regions have a awful Heineken Cup. Sounds like déjà vu. Wasn’t this the same story last year?

Wales will be pushing for a third consecutive Six Nations title. They have had significant injury problems like all the squads but the depth is there to give them a fighting chance. With three home games, Wales will give a solid performance and may well yet be in with a shout of the title, early results will be key.

The return of Jamie Roberts is a huge boost as is the news that Jonathan Davies may also be back to face England and Scotland at the end of tournament. Captain Warburton has been a long term absentee but the excellent Tipuric will seize his chance and Wales still have huge riches.

I think Gatland will be bold with his selections. Halfpenney and Cuthbert are shoe ins but expect a surprise with either Liam Williams or Hallom Amos starting on the wing and George North at centre alongside Jamie Roberts. The outside berth is still open with a fag paper in-between Priestland and Biggar. Priestland for me with Mike Philips taking his customary scrum half role.

I the pack, injuries to Ryan Jones, Richard Hibbard and Gethin Jenkins will force changes whilst the stupidity of Ian Evans red card and 12 week ban is a another big loss. Wales will need to find heart as I fear their pack will be under a lot of pressure with a misfiring line out and creaking scrum.

A good win over Italy will be followed by a narrow defeat in Dublin. It is hard to bet against England winning at Twickenham but Wales should also win all there at home. Three wins then and 3^rd place.

Predicted Finish: 3^rd

Opening weekend’s predictions:

Wales 26 Italy 6

France 21 England 18

Ireland 32 Scotland 9

Final Thoughts - Six Nations 2013

The Tournament ended with Wales confounding all the critics to record back to back championship titles. Few would have seen that outcome after the torrid first 50 minutes of the Wales v Ireland opener which shows the unpredictability of this tournament and why we love it so much. After a slow start, your humble correspondent ended up with 10 correct predictions out of 15 - matching last year's 67% accuracy rate. Let's look back some of the highlights of the competition and some final thoughts and considerations as we await the British Lions this summer.

Never Write Off The Welsh!

I have to admit I am one of those who really didn't see Wales recovering after a dismal Autumn. They were simply caught asleep against Ireland and looked dishevelled and lacking even basic confidence. They came alive in the 2nd half of that match and simply drove on from that point becoming stronger with every game. The final match in Cardiff had the most amazing atmosphere - probably the best I've ever experienced. A tight first half was followed by the clinical demolition of England. Clearly the finest half of Welsh rugby for 40 years.  When you look at the stats - they were devastating in defence. No tries conceded in 4 matches is a massive endorsement of their defensive prowess. Currently the meanest in World rugby.

Wales were simply breathtaking in that last match. They dominated in every facet of the game and in Warburton and Tipuric they undoubtedly have forwards of huge talent. The return of Roberts to some form and the fast improvement of Cuthbert give Wales an awesome attacking edge too. Perhaps not the dashing flair of old but a new tough edged resilience  Leigh Halfpenny put in several fantastic performances and his work under the high ball was textbook perfect. He proves again that small men can still be influential in modern  game of giant threequarters and his kicking was (mostly) of metronomic accuracy.

We have been before and the onus is on the Welsh squad to kick on and become able to take their place at rugby's top table. Beating England must become an expected outcome not the only outcome in the mind of their fans and players. They after all just another team. What must follow now are regular wins over Southern Hemisphere sides. Can they learn and progress?  Wales will probably learn most from this summer's Lions tour with Welsh players undoubtedly forming the bulk of the lions squad.The next 12 months will be crucial.

As for the coaches, I was one who was heavily critical of their approach and preparation in the Autumn and for the opening game against Ireland. Robert Howley had to face a barrage of personal criticism and rose above it in triumph  Shaun Edwards is another who can hold his head up high after the bitter disappointment of missing out on the Lions tour. Deserved well done to all!

Bridemaids

As for England - they too will learn hard lessons from the game in Cardiff. England seemed to get worse through the Tournament - it was strange seeing a team winning matches but not scoring tries. After good wins over Scotland and Ireland  England had a wobble against France, that horror show against Italy was followed by a nightmare in Cardiff. What went wrong?

It is hard to find the answers. It isn't the coaching. Stuart Lancaster is a master tactician and he has a really strong back room with Catt, Rowntree and Farrell. If anything - I think England are probably over coached. they seem to lack the individual skills and brilliance of other sides.

Martin Johnson was a great believer in the 'game plan" and followed in a long tradition of England coaches who put perhaps too much thought into the game at the cost of not developing in individual skills and game awareness.   As several people said to me on Saturday - there was perhaps only one player on Saturday's performance who would have got in the Welsh side.  Compare the stuttering Chris Ashton against either North or Cuthbert. Youngs against Philips. Barritt against Roberts and you see what they mean. Twelvetrees is probably the only England threequarter who has sign of arrogant talent and guess what - he hasn't been picked. England choosing the boring Barritt ahead of him probably because he fits better into the "plan". Jack Rowell was the first of the modern coaches who lost the dressing room because they could not understand their coach. He was too intellectual. I think England are perhaps trying too hard.

Several players have had a marked drop in form. Parling and Launchbury were scarily good against New Zealand but badly dropped off the pace. Dan Cole has gone backwards and England have struggled for a solid front row platform. They have a young squad and they have the time to develop and grow into a great team but not yet. If they focus on their strengths, develop just a few raw talents World Cup 2015 looks a long way off but England will aim to peak and could have the last laugh picking up the Webb Ellis in 2 years. You read it here first....

Celtic Fringe

Scotland can take heart from a  campaign with two victories but little champagne sparkle. They put in a dogged shift against the Auld Enemy, blew away Italy, ground down Ireland and caused a few concerns against both Wales and France. In Hogg, Maitland and Visser - they have a back three of real quality but are let down by the Fly Half/Centre options available. They simply don't have the talent in the backs to compete at the highest level. Add a determined pack and a great goalkicker (Laidlaw) and Scotland can frighten anyone especially when they are written off. Kelly Brown has led with great effectiveness and heart and Scott Johnson has carried on where Robinson left off in developing a winning mindset and wins at home are certainly solid progress. Next season maintain some stability and away victories will be critical for them to progress.  A work in progress.

For Ireland - this looks like the end of an era. I think they felt they were on for another Grand Slam after effectively killing Wales for 50 minutes. They simply went backwards. Injuries showed that they don't have any real strength in depth. How can they get 3 teams to the Heineken Cup quarter finals when Wales had none and yet have such a bare cupboard bereft of real prospects? Healy and Ross were second best to most front rows. Heaslip and O'Brien should have been certainties on the plane for the Lions with Heaslip a likely test starter. But not after the tournament when both players will be lucky to make the squad - such is their fall from grace. They never dominated any team through their pack and look like a nation in decline. The fiasco of their coaching set up where Declan Kidney blundered this way through with no new contract on offer was bizarre and clearly unsettling for Irish morale.

With O'Driscoll likely to retire, he will be quickly followed by O'Connell , O'Gara, and D'Arcy. All big men to replace! Ireland always take too long to bring players through but it is even more noticeable that all Irish provinces have increased the numbers of foreign imports - such is their addiction to European success at club level. It will be a tough 24 months as an Ireland supporter. They need a new coach and challenge fast.

Viva Italia!

For me, the Six Nations finally became a tournament of Six Nations. Italy finally arrived. They now have two competitive club sides gaining more experience weekly in Rabo Direct and Heineken Cup. They have a great coach who is making a real difference and getting the Italians to believe they can compete and win.

They have now beaten every nation except England and they came mighty close to the upset to end all upsets at Twickenham. No longer just a forward dominated team either. Parisse and Zanni have been causing problems for a while - Parisse - the outright World best at No.8. Add two workman like players at half backs and unleash some great backs like McLean and Italy have truly arrived. Next season will be tougher with just two home fixtures but neither England or Scotland will relish the Stadio Olympico journey and Italy could even surprise away next season. Viva Italia - welcome to the top table.

Allez les Losers...

If Italy have arrived then what of France? They were simply shockingly bad. Selections simply beggared belief and several players looked uninterested and uncertain of what they were doing. France had a weak defence last season and it simply went from bad to worse. They made changes for England but just when they were competitive they made criminal substitutions bringing on inferior players and losing the plot totally.

I hope to never see Freddie Michalak on an international rugby field again. France have only one Outside Half - Trinh-Duc; and he is not World class. France have a fantastic domestic rugby competition but rather like English Football's Premier league - it is at the expense of developing their own players.  Only 4 of the 14 clubs have a french qualified outside half and there has been a increasing import of Georgian props, Welsh and English internationals, and Southern Hemisphere mercenaries. One has to fear for the future pour Les Bleus!

British Lions Test XV & Squad

With a short while until the Lions squad is chosen, I have picked my side based on current Six Nations form. It doesn't make pretty reading for English, Irish and Scots rugby fans:

15 - Leigh Halfpenny (Wales) - saw off challenge from Hogg and Goode who will also make the 37 man squad

14 - Alex Cuthbert (Wales) - not a certain choice especially at the Start of the tournament but a fantastic performance against England secures his place.

13 - Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland) - Australia will be fast, hard pitches and it will be a fitting end for one the World's all time greats.

12 - Jamie Roberts (Wales) - formed a terrific understanding with BoD last Lions and gets his place with a late flurry in last two matches

11 - George North (Wales) - under pressure from Zebo and Visser - just gets the nod

10 - Owen Farrell (England) - the best talent at 10. Biggar and Sexton also making the squad.

9 - Mike Philips (Wales) - not my type of scrum half but likely to be Gatland's. Conor Murray and Greg Laidlaw his back ups. No English Scrum half making the squad.

1 - Gethin Jenkins (Wales) - back at his brilliant best against Italy and England. Cian Healy and Ryan Grant the understudies.

2 - Rory Best (Ireland) - The most accurate line out thrower and a certain starter. Hibbard his understudy

3- Adam Jones (Wales) - the world's best tight head scrummager. Dan Cole his understudy

4 - Geoff Parling (England) - still the Guv'nor despite a weak tournament finish.

5 - Ian Evans (Wales) - phenomenal tacking and ball carrying. Richie Grey, Alun Wyn Jones and Donnecha Ryan the other Second Rows

6 - Chris Robshaw (England) - the Lions will need leaders on the field. Will be toughing it out with the Welsh flankers to make the starting line up. Tom Wood also making the trip

7 - Justin Tipuric (Wales)  - not the biggest but the fastest with fabulous passing skills

8 - Sam Warburton (Wales) - CAPTAIN - Sam has come through a tough time but will be selected as Lions Captain and will switch to No.8 to accomodate Tipuric. Faletau will be pushing him too

Squad: - these 15 plus:
11 Backs - Hogg (Scotland), Goode (England), Visser, Maitland (both Scotland), Zebo (Ireland),  Tuigali, (England), Davies,  Biggar (both Wales), Sexton , Murray (both Ireland) Laidlaw (Scotland)

11 Forwards - Healy, Ross (both Ireland), Grant (Scotland), Cole (England), Hibbard (Wales), Hartley (England), Wyn Jones (Wales), Grey (Scotland), Ryan (Ireland), Wood (England), Faletau (Wales)

15 Welsh
8 English
8 Irish
6 Scots

Rugby Raconteur will be back for Lions tour...See you soon!

FINAL WEEKEND – “THERE’S GONNA BE A SHOWDOWN”

Final weekend of an enthralling Six Nations completion. Lots of shocks and surprises along the way in one of the most open competitions in years. The one area where the tournament ahs been let down has been the standard of refereeing and the choice of referees has also been somewhat challenging in my eyes.

I’ll admit my own biases here – Joubert and Clancy are not my favourite refs – far from it. Their performances last week were lamentable at best. Joubert broke all records for giving out a ridiculous number of penalties. Clancy asked his Assistant Nigel Owens to help and then completely ignored him giving England an advantage and stifling a promising Italian attack.

The refereeing of scrummages has been frankly awful and it has made the game a dull spectacle, which will continue to turn people off our wonderful game. The IRB must intervene and fix this and quickly.

So on to the final matches – lets see the how the runners and riders are shaping up:

Italy v Ireland

Fair play to Italy, they rose to the occasion and gave England a terrible fright at HQ last week with the honour of scoring the only try of the match as well. Their whole team showed tremendous heart and Masi and Mclean were both tricky and gave outstanding performances showing up their much more favoured opponents.

The Italians will feel confident going into this final match at home against an Irish side, which seams to have fitness and focus issues. Lo Cicero returns at prop as Castrogiovanni is out with injury but otherwise a largely unchanged team will relay go for it.

Italy have moved beyond being a one-man team based around Parisse to being a much stronger all round team. Parisse remains probably the best No.8 in the World right now but everywhere you look Italy have players of Talent. Zanni and Favaro have both had good tournaments in the back row, Gori and Orquera look firmly established at half backs and a large Italian crowd will cause concerns to even the most partisan St. paddy’s weekend reveler.

If Italy can hold eth Irish scrum and secure their lien out then they can cause problems and they must go on the field believing they can win.

As for Ireland, what has happened? It seems an age ago they ran riot in the first half at Cardiff shocking a half asleep Welsh team and earning a deserved victory. They have struggled and looked weaker as the tournament has progressed. Yes they have suffered with injuries but so have other teams. Ireland look unfit and their second half performances against Wales, Scotland and France have been extremely poor with the Irish just seeming to run out of ideas and stamina. They crumpled last week against a mediocre French side and it is hard to see them raising their game here.

Declan Kidney looks like a man waiting for his call to the gallows. The uncertainty concerning his future has obviously unsettled both coach and team but he has been guilty of some major tactical blunders. Murray was man of the match last week so you have to question why he spent the critical last 15 minutes on the bench. The Irish love a fight and this could be the fight of their lives.

On a positive note, Paddy Jackson had a much stronger more measured performance against France and they will be relieved to have a three-quarter line of any ability after the mass injuries of last week. Conor Murray continues to have a strong tournament putting him right in Lions contention and the Irish game will depend upon a strong scrimmage. Healy and Ross have had mixed performances and their stars have definitely waned over the past weeks. Captain Heaslip is another who needs a big game to secure his place on the plane and a Lions cap.

My head says Ireland have too much quality to lose this one but my heart says Italy. I’m going to stick my neck out and predict a shock win for the Azzuri. Italy by 4 points.

Italy 19 Ireland 15

France v Scotland

Philippe Saint Andre will be looking for a strong finish from his tricolours in the final match of a disastrous competition. They have looked lost for most of the matches and his selections defy simple logic. His misguided support of Michalak really cannot be defended in any way. It simply hasn’t worked. France look under-prepared, over coached, and dis-spirited.

They had a much stronger game in Dublin and really should have beaten Ireland with a bright second half display. Their one shining light has been the excellent Huget who really has struck to it while those around him have drifted into disinterest. Medard and Clerc can still terrorize defenses if they get the ball and the French pack were solid and scrimmaged strongly in Dublin.

Louis Picamoles has still looked world class at times and it will depend a lot on France securing solid forward ball from the set pieces and getting the scoreboard ticking over early in the game. If they do, then the Stadt crowd will get behind them and Scotland could be in for a hammering.

Scotland were frankly dismal against Wales – never really looking like an attacking threat. Laidlaw has been metronomic in his kicking accuracy. I think Scotland made a massive mistake against Wales in dropping the excellent Geoff Cross. They were unsettled by poor refereeing at the scrums and never really recovered. The boring pedantic Scottish play really hasn’t changed much despite bright signs in attack with Hogg and Maitland both emerging with great credit this season.

I believe France will get on top early and will rip Scotland apart. That is probably the worst outcome for the future of French rugby but being Welsh and partisan – long can Saint Andre keep screwing things up. There won’t be many tears in Wales or England to see France get it wrong. France will win by rout.

France 31 Scotland 9

Wales v England

It had to be didn’t it? The two best teams last year have been the two best this year as well. There really isn’t much between the teams and after week one when Wales looked bereft of ideas and confidence that they would still be in with a fighting chance of remaining champions.

Wales must start as clear favourites to both win the match and the title. A mere 7 point gap will be enough for Wales and the Welsh crowd will see this opportunity to put the enemy to the sword and will cheer Wales from start to finish. The WRU have been whipping up a patriotic frenzy all week with their "One Nation" messaging. Will it be enough to see Wales to victory?

I am delighted to see the World’s best referee – Steve Walsh has been chosen for this one. Hopefully we will have the opportunity to see a closed roof and watch an exciting game especially given the weather forecast has heavy rain predicted. The Welsh camp will be pleased with the recovery and the return of confidence to their ranks after a dismal set of results since last year’s championship. They did another workmanlike performance against Scotland but will be concerned about the number of penalties they have conceded, which could be critical tomorrow.

There are intriguing match-ups all the way between the two sides. The winners will form the bulk of the British Lions squad and the destination of the captaincy. The Talismanic Ryan Jones is out but Wales will welcome back Sam Warburton’s return to his very best form against Scotland. Warburton and Tipuric will form an exciting attacking if somewhat lightweight back row with the mis-firing erratic Falatau. Up front – the return of Gethin Jenkins will add considerably to Wales loose forward performances, although his record as captain is not a promising one.  Adam Jones will remain the anchor in the Welsh scrum.

Richard Hibbard had a strong game against Scotland and the return of Alun Wynne Jones alongside the excellent Ian Evans will have to match up strongly to the English, (and likely Lion's) first choice pairing of Parling and Launchbury. Could be a critical area with neither team being dominant in their own line out so far.

Behind the scrum, we have seen flashes from North and Cuthbert while Roberts and Jonathan Davies have not reached any peaks this season. The game could come down to just one try.  Halfpenny was badly awry with his kicking last week and he cannot afford to miss any penalty opportunities. The game will be that tight.

As for England, they were desperately poor against Italy and lost much of their shape. They will not play that badly again and the Millennium Stadium will hold no fear. They will welcome back Owen Farrell after the stuttering inept display by Flood last week.  He really gets England moving and his return will be a welcome fillip to the English confidence.

Mike Brown and Alex Goode have had good tournaments’ but have seen little attacking ball. Barritt has been strong in defence but shows little aptitude in attack and Wales will be glad to see the dangerous Twelvetrees on the bench.

Up front you will expect a close battle in all three areas – front, second row and back row. I am surprised to see Marler back and I fear he will have a torrid time against Adam jones. Dan Cole and Gethin Jenkins are closely matched and refereed properly and consistently the scrums should even up. England having the second row advantage to offset Wales narrow front row advantage. If England attack around the ruck area and get their forward power moving, Wales could be in trouble and concede a bucket load of kickable penalties.

Chris Robshaw is Lions Captain in waiting and I have no doubt regardless of the result he will be announced as the new leader of the Lions. Well deserved for a man who has not been especially highly rated but has proven all his critics wrong.

Outside the scrum, Ben Youngs returns in place of Danny Care. Again, I feel it would not have been my choice. Care offers more maverick uncertainty and would unsettle Wales more. Expect to see him and Twelvetrees both see an outing. Lancaster has shown shrewd judgment in selections with the exception of the Courtney Lawes flanker fiasco. He has stuck with he knows and it will be a very close match.

In the end I feel Welsh hwyl will just not be enough to rest the championship off the English rose. Wales to win by 4 points – English title but no Grand Slam.

Wales 22 England 18

Week 4 - Calm before the storm

This year's tournament has been very close with a fag paper between the four top sides. After disappointing prediction accuracy on the first two weeks, it was week 3 where your correspondant redeemed himself with 3 out of 3 correct results. There is still much to play for in this penultimate round of matches. Lets assess how I see it this week:

Scotland v Wales

After Scotland's lazarus style win last round in Murrayfield they will be high on confidence going into this match. It is ground breaking stuff seeing Scotland win back to back and now Wales are the latest team to face the Murrayfield caldron. With Arctic weather on the way - Scotland will feel confident mixing it with a Welsh team still finding its feet but also on for a hattrick of wins. Lets start by assessing Scotland's chances:

The return of Euan Murray will be welcomed against a strong Welsh front row who gave Italy a torrid time. You have to feel for Geoff Cross who was outstanding against Ireland who makes way. Scottish pack will fight for everything and will certainly disrupt a flaky welsh line out. Expect a confident fired up back row taking teh game to Wales under the strong leadership of Kelly Brown. With a dangerous looking bench - game will be won or lost in the pack.

Behind the scrum, Laidlaw will be deadly with the boot punishing any misdemeanors and Wales will certainly want to stop the Scottish wingers getting any quick ball in attcaking positions. Jackson makes way for Duncan Weir at Fly Half who is a steady and consistent performer - probably just what Scotland need. Coach Scott Johnson has already been widning up the Welsh and he will have done his homework briefing his side on exactly what to expect. 

As for Wales, a solid performance in putting Italy to the sword means the Men of Harlech will come north of the border in confident mood. Coach Howley has responded well to the early dissapointment against Ireland and has recalled Warburton and Wynn-Jones to bolster the Welsh pack. Sam Warburton certainly has a lot to prove and his selection is very controversial. Likewise, Andrew Coobes is very unlucky to be dropped after some impressive performances. Howley is playing a low risk game and has gone for experience over form with these selections. Jenkins return to form will be missed with injury but Paul James is a strong replacement - especially in the scrums and Wales should match Scotland in intensity up front.

In the backs - Wales have the edge assuming they can secure enough quality line out ball. We still haven't seen Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies in full flow whilst Cuthbert and George North ahve been had strong finishes in the last two matches. Scotland will eb wary of the Welsh backs and it will depend on Dan Biggar's ability to distribute the ball for Wales to score the tries their threequarters are clearly capable of inflicting on any team. Leigh Halfpenny has a lot to prove after several pundits gave their votes for Stuart Hogg as Lions fullback. 

Close intense game but unlike Ireland - Wales will front up stronger in the pack and will secure a narrow victory.

Scotland 19 Wales 21

Ireland v France

Ireland will be wondering just what went wrong after their winning start in Cardiff. At Murrayfield they threw away a winning lead and after being ground down by England - it will have severely dented Irish heart and pride. Their and their much vaunted pack came second to the angry Scots in the rough stuff. Tom Court and Mike Ross having a difficult time. The return of Healy will help bolster a creaking scrum and they need to show huge improvement to satisfy a sceptical Dublin crowd or coach Kidney could be heading to the exit door. 

Paddy Jackson had a stuttering nightmare start to his international carrer in Murrayfield and is lucky to start again this week. The lack of a credible alternative and the omission of Ronan O'Gara 

surely brings his international career to an end. If Ireland can get their line out functioning and retain enough possession then their threequarter line always looks dangerous. the Excellent McFaddern and Earls are big strong runners and they really take some stopping with the ball in hand. O'Driscoll is still working with Dorien Grey and never seems to age and a strong leadership role is required from him again this weekend

For France - a much better showing against England with Parra and Trinh-Duc at half backs. Wesley Fofana enjoyed more time and space to vary his runs at centre and Thomas Domingo caused Dan Cole some serious thought in the scrums and loose. But it all went to cock when Saint Andre reverted to Michalak and Machenaud and inexplicably reverted to the virtually the same team which had been so poor in the first two matches. England regained composure and punished the poor substituions fo the French supremo. 

Michalak is amazingly is recalled for this match. Just what is Saint Andre doing? Obviously watching a different game to the rest of us with tri-colour coloured glasses as Freddie has been shockingly bad and all French morale and progress evaporated the minute he stepped on the Twickenham turf. Other than that, the recall of Medard is welcomed and it will really depend upon the mercuriual Michalak to determine French fortunes.

I think he will misfire once more.  France will be heading into the final weekend staring in the the abyss of a wooden spoon finish. Unbelieveable but true. Ireland by 7 points.

Ireland 27 France 20

England v Italy

The white machine motors onto to take on the Azzuri on Sunday at HQ. I have been impressed with the team spirit of the England camp and Lancaster continues to be the Coach of the Tournament rarely putting a foot wrong so far with his selections and tactical awareness. 

There is clear power and dynamism in all areas of this England temam and it is hard to pick holes but Graham Rowntree will be concerned with a misfiring line out and disappointing scrummage - both usually key England strengths. The Rose are badly missing Alex Corbiesero and Marler has been an erratic replacement despite a strong showing against Ireland. So in come Mako Vunipola for his first England start as Lancaster wields the axe with five changes.  Vunipola is a strong if static prop but has undoubted scrummaging skills which is exactly what is required against Italy. Wood, Haskell and Robshaw are re-united in England's strongest back row. The sad experiment of using Courtney Laws was badly exposed against France and I don't see him returning to that role anytime soon.

England's problem area seems to be Hooker and that is something of a surprise. Lancaster seems unsure of who is his best selection  Tom Youngs has been disappointing with a scud missile accuracy on his line out throwing whilst Dylan Hartley hasn't exactly set the heart racing either.  Youngs gets the nod this week.  Toby Flood steps in for the injured Farrell with Danny Care given the nod at scrum half. Care has been mercurial during his England career but I think he is the more exciting player over Ben Youngs and he deserves his chance. Brad Barritt continues his tackling machine efforts at inside centre and Lancaster must have been tempted to give Twelvetrees another outing but stayed with the same pairing who did a lot of damage against France with Manu Tuilagi having some strong runs in an impressive performance.   

As for Italy, they will be delighted to welcome back Parisse who was so badly missed against Wales. They have a terrible record against England at HQ and I don't see them competing for a full 80 minutes this time either. Their scrum was rattled and disrupted by Wales. Martin Castrogiovani came off a poor second to Gethin Jenkins last match and will again have a tough time with the England front row whom he knows so well from his Aviva premiership day job. I am please to see Luciano Orquera  recalled at outside half in place of the stuttering Kris Burton, and McLean, Masi and Canale have all impressed me this season. 

Italy's only chance will be to get an early score and pressure England at the set pieces especially the line out. I don't see them getting enough quick quality ball to bother the English defence and another cricket score defeat looks likely with England running riots with five or six tries. 

England 52 Italy 9