SIX NATIONS 2014 – THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Six Nations 2014 starts next weekend with this year’s competition looking to be perhaps one of the tightest ever. It is undoubtedly going to be a tournament where men will be asked to step up to another level as the pride of wearing your Country’s jersey on the field of battle draws near. The autumn international were disanointing for all of the Northern Hemisphere’s finest except for the proud red rose of England. Whilst we have seen constant bickering over European club rugby it is not time to put that aside and gird the loins for the world’s greatest rugby competition. Your correspondent is back aiming to be providing even more insightful views and punditry. Lets see how I see the teams will perform this championship:

ENGLAND

England had a strong autumn with a good win over Australia and a narrow loss to the All Blacks. They came into last year’s tournament with a similar strong autumn and challenged for the title. Will they keep the momentum going into this tournament with another strong championship? I have to say they will and are on track to have a strong World Cup squad for 2015, Last year England looked like the real deal going into Cardiff but flattered to deceive with a really bad day at the office. With hindsight, the cracks were there through the five rounds and a narrow scrapped win over Italy was followed by the capitulation in Cardiff.

How have they built since then? Well all is looking strong in most positions although Coach Lancaster must still have doubts over the halfbacks, centres, and hooker but have has a strong array of talent to choose from and the strength in depth should be on his side. Lets start with the backs.

The loss of Tuigali (again) is not perhaps the big loss it appears. I am not a fan of the smash/kill Centre tactics and if Lancaster plays his cards right he could have a very strong set of backs.  Mike Brown has been in scintillating form for the Quins, and he must start as the prime full back. That is unfortunate for the talented Alex Goode but Brown is a shoe in for me. On the wings, Chris, Ashton will scrap in due to the absence of the excellent Marlond Yarde and Christian Wade, whilst Jonny May of Gloucester shows good pace and finishing and Anthony Watson from Bath may well be the wild card choice, At centres, Jonathan Joseph has looked very strong and his absence through injury give Luther Burrell a real chance. The autumn combination of Joel Tomkins and Twelvetrees just didn’t work. I would like to see Lancaster put Twelvetrees and Burrell together but if not then Matt Hopper from Quins may well get the green light with either of Burrell or Twelvetrees at 12.

At Outside Half, Owen Farrell, has yet to show real consistency and if he doesn’t show early, then I believe Lancaster will blood the excellent George Ford. He has been very consistent for Bath and a real talent.

At scrum half; Ben Youngs will likely get the nod ahead of Care and Dickson. Noon of the three have impressed me this season and I think this is a problem area for England. The backs will need quick ball and none of the choices is inspiring.

In the pack, Hartley has shown more consistency with his throwing and so should get the nod ahead of Tom Youngs. England have a plethora of world class second rows but I think front row may have a few issues. With Corbisero’s absence, I have not been impressed with either Joe Marler or David Wilson although Dan Cole continues to grow in stature and Mako Vunipola, whilst strong in open play is still a questionable scrummager.  The Guv’nor Geoff Parling is a massive loss and with his long-term absence I expect Courtney Lawes and Launchbury to be the first choice if they stay fit.  In the back row Billy Vunipola and Tom Wood will join Captain Robshaw.

England has a fantastic record in Paris and has nothing to fear but I feel they will come up second best against the French. Wins will follow in all the other matches with revenge over Wales perhaps the sweetest. In the end if will come down to points and tries scored as England will tie on 4 wins.

Predicted Finish: 1^st but no Grand Slam

FRANCE

France were so bad last year it was frightening just how far they fell from grace. However, you can never write them off and they had a reasonable autumn running the All Blacks very close and blooding lots of new men.

The absence of Thierry Dusautoir is a massive loss and the French squad lacks experience with more new caps likely than any other team. The exciting Jules Plisson has been a revelation at Stade Français and must be the starter at 10. Remi Tales has also impressed this season and France for once look to have options at half backs. In the threequaretrs, Wesley Fofana and Florian Fritz look to continue their centre partnership and France, as always, have many talented wingers and full backs to choose from. Up front is where France will be questionable.

Louis Picamoles has not been in the best form and with Dusautoir out, Yannick Nyanga will have to take on a bigger role in the back three. The French scrum will be solid and will certainly test England, but expect lots of penalties and questionable fitness.

I believe France will finally put to bed their Stade de France horror record against England will follow that with a comfortable home win against Italy. The fixture fairy has been kind to les bleus with two home games but the freezing Friday encounter in Cardiff. Wales will win that encounter and then it is a tough trip to Scotland before Ireland to finish. Expect 4 wins and they will challenge England hard for the title. Bridesmaids again when the table is completed.

Predicted Finish: 2^nd

IRELAND

Last season, Ireland destroyed Wales in the opening game and then frankly fell apart. The lowest point coming with defeat to Italy.  New coach Joe Schmidt will go into his first Six Nations with the aim of restoring faith in the Irish side and there will be lots of pride for the men in green to rub Gatland’s nose in the dirt and embarrass Wales in Dublin.

The Irish provinces are again on fire in the Heineken Cup and they should have high confidence coming into the competition but they had a poor autumn other than against New Zealand, and injuries and age are taking their toll on the side. Schmidt needs to be bold with his selections. Ian Keatley may be a wild card choice over the ageing Sexton as Madigan is unproven at the highest level.

The loss of Sean O’Brien is a massive one in the pack as are Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls in the backs. Time for some of the younger players to come through and I expect Schmidt to make a few surprises with Ulster’s Craig Gilroy and Luke Fitzgerald likely to be the two wingers of choice. O’Driscoll still can’t forget his Lions omission and he has been in fine form.

Personally, I feel Ireland don’t have the strength in depth and are ageing rapidly. The excellent Robin Coupland has been man of the season at Cardiff Blues and Schmidt should give him a run out in at least one game. Heaslip has a lot to prove after a poor tournament last year and a mediocre Lions tour. It is hard to see Ireland worrying either England or France for the title. They open with an easy victory over Scotland before facing Wales at Dublin. A narrow win over Wales will be followed by a defeat to England, a win over Italy and more heartache with a loss to the French. Three wins and mid table mediocrity.

Predicted Finish: 4^th

ITALY

Italy had an excellent tournament last year with great wins over Ireland and France and a narrow defeat to England. They had a very disappointing autumn with heavy defeats to both Argentina and Australia. Sergio Parisse and his team will be keen to put that behind them and will entre this Six Nations full of optimism. Unfortunately it will not be fulfilled. They have not progressed sufficiently to challenge any of the top 4 nations and I fear they will have a disappointing competition.

The fixture draw has not been kind to them and they start with difficult away games to Wales and France. Two defeats before they host Scotland, which once again remains their most likely chance of any result. You really don’t see them winning in Dublin and England will have Championship spoils in their nostrils when they face up in Rome. So one win at best is what we can see.

The evergreen Parisse has passed his 100 caps and will be the rock again behind the team is built. The retirement of LoCicero and the ageing Bergamasco and Castrogriovani remain solid performers but time is catching up with them and it is critical they blood new players.  Tommasso Allen and Michele Camopagnaro look like good young prospects and lets hope they can bring their youthful exuberance to the tricolors.

Predicted Finish: 5^th  – One Win

SCOTLAND

Scotland had their best Six Nations for many years in 2013 but have really failed to kick on. Quite frankly they were absolutely dire in the autumn game against South Africa.

Coach Scott Johnson is talking a good game and he has had the good sense to make the excellent Kelly Brown as his Captain for this competition.  The losses of Tim Visser and Ewan Murray are big ones and Scotland will once again have to call on a dwindling number of ageing veterans. John Beattie and John Barclay will have to carry the team in many games. Dave Denton is not the player he was two years ago and Scotland may well struggle with the new scrum laws.

It is such a familiar looking squad with few new talents emerging. Weir and Laidlaw are solid if unspectacular at half backs and their threequarters are hard to break but will not out fear into the opposition in the same way that a Jamie Roberts does for Wales or a Brian O’Driscoll for Ireland. Expect dogged, grindy performances.

An opening trip to Dublin is not really the start the doctor ordered and that is followed by the auld enemy England. Scotland will be hoping for a cold wet day and a rusty England but I don’t see it. England just have too much talent.

Hard to see wins after that against France or Wales and Italy away will be their rourkes drift moment. No wins and a wooden spoon I’m afraid.

Predicted finish: 6^th Wooden Spoon

WALES

Wales once again look like a country and a team in total disarray. The civil war situation between the WRU and the regional teams is tearing the sport apart and they y have completely failed to stop the player drain to France with Leigh Halfpenny the latest to depart.

Again, a poor autumn and the Welsh Regions have a awful Heineken Cup. Sounds like déjà vu. Wasn’t this the same story last year?

Wales will be pushing for a third consecutive Six Nations title. They have had significant injury problems like all the squads but the depth is there to give them a fighting chance. With three home games, Wales will give a solid performance and may well yet be in with a shout of the title, early results will be key.

The return of Jamie Roberts is a huge boost as is the news that Jonathan Davies may also be back to face England and Scotland at the end of tournament. Captain Warburton has been a long term absentee but the excellent Tipuric will seize his chance and Wales still have huge riches.

I think Gatland will be bold with his selections. Halfpenney and Cuthbert are shoe ins but expect a surprise with either Liam Williams or Hallom Amos starting on the wing and George North at centre alongside Jamie Roberts. The outside berth is still open with a fag paper in-between Priestland and Biggar. Priestland for me with Mike Philips taking his customary scrum half role.

I the pack, injuries to Ryan Jones, Richard Hibbard and Gethin Jenkins will force changes whilst the stupidity of Ian Evans red card and 12 week ban is a another big loss. Wales will need to find heart as I fear their pack will be under a lot of pressure with a misfiring line out and creaking scrum.

A good win over Italy will be followed by a narrow defeat in Dublin. It is hard to bet against England winning at Twickenham but Wales should also win all there at home. Three wins then and 3^rd place.

Predicted Finish: 3^rd

Opening weekend’s predictions:

Wales 26 Italy 6

France 21 England 18

Ireland 32 Scotland 9