FINAL WEEKEND – “THERE’S GONNA BE A SHOWDOWN”

Final weekend of an enthralling Six Nations completion. Lots of shocks and surprises along the way in one of the most open competitions in years. The one area where the tournament ahs been let down has been the standard of refereeing and the choice of referees has also been somewhat challenging in my eyes.

I’ll admit my own biases here – Joubert and Clancy are not my favourite refs – far from it. Their performances last week were lamentable at best. Joubert broke all records for giving out a ridiculous number of penalties. Clancy asked his Assistant Nigel Owens to help and then completely ignored him giving England an advantage and stifling a promising Italian attack.

The refereeing of scrummages has been frankly awful and it has made the game a dull spectacle, which will continue to turn people off our wonderful game. The IRB must intervene and fix this and quickly.

So on to the final matches – lets see the how the runners and riders are shaping up:

Italy v Ireland

Fair play to Italy, they rose to the occasion and gave England a terrible fright at HQ last week with the honour of scoring the only try of the match as well. Their whole team showed tremendous heart and Masi and Mclean were both tricky and gave outstanding performances showing up their much more favoured opponents.

The Italians will feel confident going into this final match at home against an Irish side, which seams to have fitness and focus issues. Lo Cicero returns at prop as Castrogiovanni is out with injury but otherwise a largely unchanged team will relay go for it.

Italy have moved beyond being a one-man team based around Parisse to being a much stronger all round team. Parisse remains probably the best No.8 in the World right now but everywhere you look Italy have players of Talent. Zanni and Favaro have both had good tournaments in the back row, Gori and Orquera look firmly established at half backs and a large Italian crowd will cause concerns to even the most partisan St. paddy’s weekend reveler.

If Italy can hold eth Irish scrum and secure their lien out then they can cause problems and they must go on the field believing they can win.

As for Ireland, what has happened? It seems an age ago they ran riot in the first half at Cardiff shocking a half asleep Welsh team and earning a deserved victory. They have struggled and looked weaker as the tournament has progressed. Yes they have suffered with injuries but so have other teams. Ireland look unfit and their second half performances against Wales, Scotland and France have been extremely poor with the Irish just seeming to run out of ideas and stamina. They crumpled last week against a mediocre French side and it is hard to see them raising their game here.

Declan Kidney looks like a man waiting for his call to the gallows. The uncertainty concerning his future has obviously unsettled both coach and team but he has been guilty of some major tactical blunders. Murray was man of the match last week so you have to question why he spent the critical last 15 minutes on the bench. The Irish love a fight and this could be the fight of their lives.

On a positive note, Paddy Jackson had a much stronger more measured performance against France and they will be relieved to have a three-quarter line of any ability after the mass injuries of last week. Conor Murray continues to have a strong tournament putting him right in Lions contention and the Irish game will depend upon a strong scrimmage. Healy and Ross have had mixed performances and their stars have definitely waned over the past weeks. Captain Heaslip is another who needs a big game to secure his place on the plane and a Lions cap.

My head says Ireland have too much quality to lose this one but my heart says Italy. I’m going to stick my neck out and predict a shock win for the Azzuri. Italy by 4 points.

Italy 19 Ireland 15

France v Scotland

Philippe Saint Andre will be looking for a strong finish from his tricolours in the final match of a disastrous competition. They have looked lost for most of the matches and his selections defy simple logic. His misguided support of Michalak really cannot be defended in any way. It simply hasn’t worked. France look under-prepared, over coached, and dis-spirited.

They had a much stronger game in Dublin and really should have beaten Ireland with a bright second half display. Their one shining light has been the excellent Huget who really has struck to it while those around him have drifted into disinterest. Medard and Clerc can still terrorize defenses if they get the ball and the French pack were solid and scrimmaged strongly in Dublin.

Louis Picamoles has still looked world class at times and it will depend a lot on France securing solid forward ball from the set pieces and getting the scoreboard ticking over early in the game. If they do, then the Stadt crowd will get behind them and Scotland could be in for a hammering.

Scotland were frankly dismal against Wales – never really looking like an attacking threat. Laidlaw has been metronomic in his kicking accuracy. I think Scotland made a massive mistake against Wales in dropping the excellent Geoff Cross. They were unsettled by poor refereeing at the scrums and never really recovered. The boring pedantic Scottish play really hasn’t changed much despite bright signs in attack with Hogg and Maitland both emerging with great credit this season.

I believe France will get on top early and will rip Scotland apart. That is probably the worst outcome for the future of French rugby but being Welsh and partisan – long can Saint Andre keep screwing things up. There won’t be many tears in Wales or England to see France get it wrong. France will win by rout.

France 31 Scotland 9

Wales v England

It had to be didn’t it? The two best teams last year have been the two best this year as well. There really isn’t much between the teams and after week one when Wales looked bereft of ideas and confidence that they would still be in with a fighting chance of remaining champions.

Wales must start as clear favourites to both win the match and the title. A mere 7 point gap will be enough for Wales and the Welsh crowd will see this opportunity to put the enemy to the sword and will cheer Wales from start to finish. The WRU have been whipping up a patriotic frenzy all week with their "One Nation" messaging. Will it be enough to see Wales to victory?

I am delighted to see the World’s best referee – Steve Walsh has been chosen for this one. Hopefully we will have the opportunity to see a closed roof and watch an exciting game especially given the weather forecast has heavy rain predicted. The Welsh camp will be pleased with the recovery and the return of confidence to their ranks after a dismal set of results since last year’s championship. They did another workmanlike performance against Scotland but will be concerned about the number of penalties they have conceded, which could be critical tomorrow.

There are intriguing match-ups all the way between the two sides. The winners will form the bulk of the British Lions squad and the destination of the captaincy. The Talismanic Ryan Jones is out but Wales will welcome back Sam Warburton’s return to his very best form against Scotland. Warburton and Tipuric will form an exciting attacking if somewhat lightweight back row with the mis-firing erratic Falatau. Up front – the return of Gethin Jenkins will add considerably to Wales loose forward performances, although his record as captain is not a promising one.  Adam Jones will remain the anchor in the Welsh scrum.

Richard Hibbard had a strong game against Scotland and the return of Alun Wynne Jones alongside the excellent Ian Evans will have to match up strongly to the English, (and likely Lion's) first choice pairing of Parling and Launchbury. Could be a critical area with neither team being dominant in their own line out so far.

Behind the scrum, we have seen flashes from North and Cuthbert while Roberts and Jonathan Davies have not reached any peaks this season. The game could come down to just one try.  Halfpenny was badly awry with his kicking last week and he cannot afford to miss any penalty opportunities. The game will be that tight.

As for England, they were desperately poor against Italy and lost much of their shape. They will not play that badly again and the Millennium Stadium will hold no fear. They will welcome back Owen Farrell after the stuttering inept display by Flood last week.  He really gets England moving and his return will be a welcome fillip to the English confidence.

Mike Brown and Alex Goode have had good tournaments’ but have seen little attacking ball. Barritt has been strong in defence but shows little aptitude in attack and Wales will be glad to see the dangerous Twelvetrees on the bench.

Up front you will expect a close battle in all three areas – front, second row and back row. I am surprised to see Marler back and I fear he will have a torrid time against Adam jones. Dan Cole and Gethin Jenkins are closely matched and refereed properly and consistently the scrums should even up. England having the second row advantage to offset Wales narrow front row advantage. If England attack around the ruck area and get their forward power moving, Wales could be in trouble and concede a bucket load of kickable penalties.

Chris Robshaw is Lions Captain in waiting and I have no doubt regardless of the result he will be announced as the new leader of the Lions. Well deserved for a man who has not been especially highly rated but has proven all his critics wrong.

Outside the scrum, Ben Youngs returns in place of Danny Care. Again, I feel it would not have been my choice. Care offers more maverick uncertainty and would unsettle Wales more. Expect to see him and Twelvetrees both see an outing. Lancaster has shown shrewd judgment in selections with the exception of the Courtney Lawes flanker fiasco. He has stuck with he knows and it will be a very close match.

In the end I feel Welsh hwyl will just not be enough to rest the championship off the English rose. Wales to win by 4 points – English title but no Grand Slam.

Wales 22 England 18