Week 2 - Six Nations 2018 - Make or Break

Week 1 of the 2018 NatWest Six Nations was an exciting opening to the Northern Hemisphere’s premier rugby competition. Your correspondent had 100% accuracy in predicting the winners but the winning margins were significantly different to what I expected. Amongst the winners, Wales and England were especially impressive whilst Ireland failed to capitalise on their dominance and almost paid the price save for one piece of brilliant kicking accuracy at the death.

For Scotland, France and Italy – one has to think their chances of challenging for the title are all but over after the first stanza with Scotland in particular failing to live up to the pre-tournament hype and it was a clear shock just how badly they performed in Cardiff.

France had some impressive spells in difficult conditions in Paris while Italy caused a few heart flutters in the English defensive line scoring an impressive two tries in an energetic performance in Rome.

We will come back to an analysis of the individual team performances later in this edition of Rugby Raconteur but first let’s look preview the Week 2 confrontations:

Ireland v Italy

Ireland rode their luck in Paris and if the team were a cat they would have used up all their nine lives in Paris! Ireland looked comfortable and in control of the match against a penalty conceding French side until the 62nd minute mark. When Johnny Sexton missed a penalty, which would have given Ireland a nine-point cushion, France smelt blood and saw an opportunity to not only take the lead but secure the win.

The failure to put away a determined Les Bleus, no doubt stung by the withering criticism that came with a seven-match winless streak; gave them hope and when Teddy Thomas put his foot on the gas to walk through a static Irish defence to give Jacques Brunel’s side the lead with six minutes to play, Ireland looked dead and buried.

A missed penalty handed the pre-match favourites one more opportunity to head up field but the posts must have looked tiny in the distance. Had Sexton’s long-range drop at goal died a yard before it did, the questions at Schmidt’s post-match press conference would have been significantly more direct and pointed.

Ireland dominated the match in so many ways. In the T&Ps - 68% possession and 68% territorial advantage. Ireland went in at half-time with a six-point lead, thanks to French indiscipline, - the penalty count at full-time was 10-6 in Ireland’s favour – all of which should have been converted into a comfortable two-score win, but the Irish pack never got totally on top of the French and their offensive play looked stale and predictable. As an attacking force Ireland were lacking in any inventiveness or creativity. The 'wonder' drop goal from Sexton really should not be allowed to gloss over a very predictable game plan.

The game plan was clearly at fault. It was totally predictable and uselessly attritional providing a recipe for the kind of disaster that one great player like Teddy Thomas can provide. If Ireland had played the conditions, the red zone corners and the French propensity for giving away penalties we would have been home and hosed after 60 minutes. They simply cannot rely on Sexton's boot off the tee and from the drop, to keep them in the running for the title. 

Controversially – I think Sexton may be the problem. He doesn’t seem to be the same player who had such a cool head in the Lion’s summer wins or Ireland’s fine Autumn displays.  His body has taken a heavy toll over his long and successful career and I feel as he reaches the twilight of his international career, it may be time for Joe Schmidt to take some chances and he should use the Italy game to give other members of his squad some game time and try some varied tactics to get the Irish championship waggon back on the rails.

Joe Schmidt has made four changes to the pack for the clash with Italy with Leinster starlet Jordan Larmour set to make his debut off the bench.

With Josh Van der Flier ruled out for the remainder of the Six Nations, his number seven jersey is taken by provincial team-mate Dan Leavy, who impressed upon his introduction at the Stade de France.

Leavy will win his sixth Irish cap and will make just his second start for his country. His first, in the 50-22 win over Japan last June saw the Leinster man score two tries.

The physical Jack Conan comes in for CJ Stander at number 8 after the Munster man put in another massive shift against France, carrying 24 times in making 40 hard-won metres.

Peter O’Mahony completes the back row, while at the front of the scrum, Jack McGrath edges out Cian Healy at loose head.

The pair have been regularly rotated and Healy will look to make an impact if called upon in the second half. McGrath is joined by captain Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong at the coal face.

In the second row, Iain Henderson will be partnered this week by Devin Toner, with Quinn Roux coming in for James Ryan on the bench, despite the Leinster man's strong showing against Les Bleus. Toner will win his 55th cap against the Italians.

The backline remains unchanged. Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton as the half-back partnership, with a back three comprising of Rob Kearney, Keith Earls and Ulster winger Jacob Stockdale.

Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki are again selected in midfield and will be hoping to have more success at picking apart the Italian defence.

The replacements bench sees quite a reshuffle in personnel. Along with Larmour, prop Andrew Porter is also poised for his first taste of the Six Nations after edging out John Ryan.

As for Italy, no one expected them to compete and win against England. For all their inexperience, Italy were generating plenty of possession against the English pack, retained possession well, and at times they attacked at pace only to be met with a wall of white shirts.

Time and again the Azzurri had to scramble furiously to keep the visitors at bay, but they were also asking questions of their own when in the English 22 as they sought to mark lock Alessandro Zanni's 100th cap by recording a first win in the fixture.

Conor O'Shea will have seen much to convince him his Italy side are improving in his second year, but it was still a 13th consecutive Six Nations defeat for the tournament's perennial strugglers.

Full back Matteo Minozzi was very impressive – certainly Italy’s man of the match and if Ireland kick aimlessly to him then Italy could front up and give the Irish something to think about in Dublin.

After the defeat to England, O'Shea has made three changes for the Aviva clash, with Braam Steyn at openside, Luca Bigi at hooker and Nicola Quaglio at loosehead prop, all starting at the Aviva.

Renato Giammarioli, Leonardo Ghiraldini and Andrea Lovotti are the players to make way. 

Expect Ireland to bounce back strongly with a bonus point victory at the Aviva. They won’t make the same mistakes twice and I expect Italy will huff and puff but will not break through the Irish defence. Ireland at a cantor.

Ireland 36 Italy 6

England v Wales

England's quest for an unprecedented hat-trick of Six Nations titles was launched by a very impressive 46-15 victory over Italy that produced a late flurry of tries as England’s superior fitness and organisation finally took hold of the match.

The reigning champions exploded out of the blocks by crossing twice through Anthony Watson inside the opening 10 minutes, but the overwhelming win their early onslaught appeared to signpost only materialised in the closing stages.

In the end Italy's whitewash was breached seven times in the bonus-point visit to the Stadio Olimpico, but England were made to work harder than they expected by a team that had nine starters with 10 caps or fewer.

Still, Eddie Jones won’t care as the English juggernaut continued its forward momentum and it means Jones's side have now won 23 of his 24 matches in charge, picking up a bonus point to match the achievements of their next opponents Wales the day before.

The Red Rose won’t fear the visit of Wales to HQ with Jones’s 100% home record of victories. The final score line flattered them in Rome with there being just seven points in it at half-time but they still crossed the whitewash seven times despite rarely engaging top gear.

One thing is certain, there won’t be any holding anything back at Twickenham from England or Wales with the ferocity and intensity likely to be in a different stratosphere to their opening rubbers. So, something has to give at English rugby headquarters. 

It wasn’t all perfect as full back Mike Brown put in a hugely laboured display – a product clearly of his lack of recent match fitness. Ben T’eo didn’t make the breaks and the loss of Ben Youngs could be playing on the mind as Jones will have to bring in new blood into his squad.

The 28-year-old Youngs will miss the rest of the Six Nations after damaging knee ligaments in Sunday's victory over Italy. The Leicester player was injured early on in the 46-15 win in Rome and scans revealed a rupture of the medial collateral ligament in his left knee and he has been side lined for four months.

Elsewhere – Sam Simmonds had a dream Six Nations debut. The 23-year-old Exeter product was England's leading tackler and also made the most metres and clean breaks, beat the most defenders and made the joint-most carries, as well as matching Anthony Watson with two tries. 

Any thoughts that Wales may have held about back row dominance will certainly have been challenged by his display with solid back up from Chris Robshaw although Courtney Lawes is clearly not yet in the same league as his team mates at flanker. The converted 2nd row tried hard but really once again showed that you need specialist players for all positions in the pack.

Eddie Jones makes just two changes to his England side to face Wales and has given matchday starts to Jonathan Joseph and Danny Care. Joseph starts at outside centre after making an impact off the bench in the 46-15 victory over Italy, with Ben Te'o demoted to a replacement role for the round two match at Twickenham.

Danny Care becomes England's most capped scrum-half, edging past the milestone of 77 held by Matt Dawson, after he was chosen to replace knee-injury victim Ben Youngs in the number nine jersey.

Richard Wigglesworth of Saracens has been drafted straight on to the bench. The 34-year-old Wrigglesworth has won 27 England caps but has not played a Test for his country since 2015.

The selection of Joseph over Te'o was widely predicted by Wales coach Warren Gatland earlier this week and sees England restored to their strongest available starting XV.

Te'o impressed with his powerful carrying against Italy but faded in his first appearance since recovering from ankle surgery in mid-June and Jones has opted for the greater experience and slick footwork of Joseph in his place.

Apart from the presence of Te'o and Wigglesworth, the bench remains unchanged. 

Warren Gatland showed once again why he is one of the world’s greatest rugby coaches. To take a Welsh team where most of the talk going into this Six Nations opener had been about the injured Welsh stars, the seven missing Lions; add to the mix a group of relatively inexperienced less celebrated, unheralded players and come up with such a dominant performance and huge win was a quite extraordinary start to their Championship campaign.

Wales' triumph marked Warren Gatland's 10th anniversary as head coach in flamboyant style, although bigger challenges now await in the shape of reigning Six Nations champions England at Twickenham next weekend, then Ireland at the Aviva Stadium.

Wales were simply magnificent. Players like Aaron Shingler, Josh Navidi, Cory Hill and Rhys Patchell could all carry the title of “journeymen” before the game having been plying their trade diligently year in, year out in the domestic game.

The players stepped up for regional rugby and they have answered any questions about the logic of picking 10 Scarlets in emphatic fashion.

In my eyes, the back row of Morierty, Navidi and the outstanding Shingler delivered probably the performance of their lives in the hard graft department to put Scotland to the sword in such in an amazing way. After a couple of mediocre displays for Wales in the Autumn, Shingler made ten carries and nine tackles, rose imperiously in the lineout, and was just into everything, transferring the form he has shown for the Scarlets over the past 18 months into the Test arena.

Shingler had spent three years in the international wilderness, while his fellow flanker Josh Navidi dwelled there for four, with Navidi carrying on where he left off in the autumn, winning two crucial breakdown penalties under his own posts, while his 17 tackles were at the heart of an immense Welsh defensive display.

As for Cory Hill, he’s another who is hardly been a household name, with Lions legend Brian O’Driscoll famously saying he didn’t know who he was when the Dragons lock was called up to the Lions tour last summer. There was also some surprise when he was picked ahead of the rejuvenated Bradley Davies to face the Scots, but he fully justified his selection with his best display in a red jersey.

Wales took their early chances well and kept Scotland off the score sheet in a competitive first half. The second half was a different game entirely with Wales being totally dominant in all areas. The sheer shock of how they dominated a Scotland team many had tipped to real Six nations contenders should not be over-stated and Wales will travel to Twickenham with no fears and realistic dreams of another shock performance.

It’s no surprise then that Warren Gatland has chosen not to tinker with his side and names an unchanged starting XV to face England. George North replaces Owen Watkin on the bench in what is the only change to the match day 23 that beat Scotland.

It was expected that the giant winger would be involved in some capacity, having impressed for Northampton Saints last weekend. But the form of Josh Adams and Steff Evans means Wales aren’t forced to throw him straight but into the starting line-up.

North has a good record against England and he provides cover at outside centre as well as on the wing. Wales had some injury concerns about Josh Adams (slight strain) and lock Cory Hill who passed his head injury assessment after taking a blow in the win over Scotland, but Saracens back Liam Williams fails to make the squad despite taking a full part in training on Monday.

The match will no doubt be super competitive as always between these great rivals, but the final score line probably won’t be that close. Wales may be confident but it’s very different playing in front of a hostile Twickenham and against a team with England’s winning mantra and playing strength.  Still, if anyone can win at Twickenham, its Wales who have won three times during Warren Gatland’s tenure as coach – more than any other team has managed in recent memory.

In the back three – both teams are pretty evenly matched although England have the advantage of stability and experience.

In the centres, I would say Wales have the edge. Parkes and Williams have tons of experience of playing together and probably have more creativity and tricks than their Saxon counterparts.

In the pack, the last two games have between them have been real ding dong battles in the front row where Wales probably have a narrow edge whilst Launchbury and Itoje have superiority over Wales despite the towering presence of captain Alun Wyn-Jones.

I would give Wales the edge in the back row and if they can keep Sam Simmonds quiet – then they could win the match but I feel it will be the half back battle and the accuracy of the tactical line and goal kicking where I feel England will finally have the edge. My heart says Wales whilst my head says England with home advantage should have the edge. Wales will fight to the last but I have to put my head above my heart and alas another England victory.

England 23 Wales 16

Scotland v France

The battle of the losers will face off at Murrayfield on Sunday and France will probably go into this one with a little more confidence than the Scots.

Scotland arrived at the Principality Stadium scenting a first victory in the Welsh capital since 2002, having crushed Australia earlier this season and ran world champions New Zealand close. But optimism was quickly replaced by damage limitation as Wales scored two converted tries during the opening 12 minutes and then ran out 34-7 victors, with Scotland restricted to a late Peter Horne try that Finn Russell converted for their only scoring contribution.

Scotland were clearly shell shocked by their utter hammering in Cardiff. They lost all the key battles, struggling up front and were not able to shackle Wales' broken-field runners on what was a deeply sobering occasion for them.

Attacking forces like full-back Stuart Hogg and centre Huw Jones could not get into the game, and Wales were never seriously troubled on an afternoon when the score line emphatically summed up their degree of dominance.

Scotland seemed to have no plan B. Seriously were Wales that good or were Scotland that bad? I can honestly say watching the game it was like the Scottish team had never met each before this game. Wales took their chances but I would say even they were shocked how easy it was. Truly awful stuff from Scotland.

The interception that led to the first Welsh try made it very difficult for Scotland. Wales gave them nothing thereafter. Scotland found themselves in a similar position to a cricket team who lose a couple of wickets for no runs in the first over of a Test match. What will have disappointed Gregor Townsend the most is the way, after having 15 minutes with his players in the dressing room at half-time and still just two scores down, the response was not a counter blast but an increase in sloppiness. Scots have to regroup quickly or their Six Nations campaign could collapse into a complete state of disrepair.

Some of Townsend’s selections really didn’t work. Newcastle’s Chris Harris had a dreadful game in the centre with some uncharacteristic unforced errors and inept tackling whilst winger Byron McGuigan is another who offered nothing in attack or defence. In the forwards too many did not stand up and be counted as Toolis, Watson, and Du Preez all failed to show any real cohesion and even John Barclay looked bewildered and flustered by what was happening in front of them.

There isn’t much encouraging news either on the injury front. Scotland won’t have lock Richie Gray available as they attempt to get their Six Nations campaign back on track against France at Murrayfield. Coach Gregor Townsend had hoped that the 65-cap second row would report to the Scottish training camp but an ongoing calf injury means the 28-year-old Toulouse player has remained in France. Wing Byron McGuigan, has also been ruled out of the French game after suffering a hamstring injury in Cardiff, and returned to his club Sale Sharks and Saracens Duncan Taylor is also out with a head injury. 

It also becomes more and more apparent that when talismanic stand-off Finn Russell has a bad game, so do Scotland. He is still young at 25 but, with 33 caps now to his name, it is time to realise that a free and easy laissez faire style can only take you so far at the highest level. There is a time and place for the maverick play. His natural instincts must be encouraged and it is these which have so often seen him repay howlers with brilliance, both in-game and from match to match. He won’t want to throw in another stinker against the country he will be living and playing in next season.

Gregor Townsend has responded to last weekend's thrashing at the hands of Wales by swinging the axe and making six changes to his Scotland line-up ahead of facing France on Sunday.

Now Townsend hopes he will get a response after recalling former skipper Greig Laidlaw at scrum-half as well as centre Peter Horne, wing Sean Maitland, prop Simon Berghan, lock Grant Gilchrist and number eight Ryan Wilson.

Ali Price - whose intercepted pass handed Gareth Davies the crucial opening score at the Principality Stadium - makes way for Laidlaw as he is joined on the bench by last week's starters Jon Welsh, Ben Toolis and Chris Harris. Cornell du Preez and the injured Byron McGuigan drop out of the 23-man squad.

Edinburgh lock Gilchrist will start in the engine room alongside Jonny Gray.

Number eight Du Preez drops out of the 23 altogether with the return of Glasgow's Wilson, who is named as one of two vice-captains along with Laidlaw.

Prop Berghan returns from suspension and takes over at tight-head from Welsh, who is among the replacements.

The versatile Horne, who scored Scotland's only try in Cardiff as a replacement, takes the number 12 jersey with Huw Jones reverting to outside centre and Harris dropping to the bench.

Alex Dunbar, having recovered from a head knock, sustained a thigh strain in training on Tuesday that also makes him doubtful for the game against England on 24 February,while Edinburgh full-back Blair Kinghorn will cover the back three and could win his first cap from the bench, with Worcester back-rower Dave Denton also among the replacements on his return to Scotland duty for the first time since the summer tour of Japan in 2016.

French Coach Jacques Brunel will have been hugely encouraged by his first game in charge and he drew an inexperienced team together that stuck with Ireland, who were ahead thanks to four Johnny Sexton penalties, until winger Teddy Thomas scorched home from 50 yards, his converted try putting the French ahead for the first time in the game with seven minutes to play.

Alas it was not to be, and Ireland’s forwards worked through 41 phases of play to set up that drop goal and break French hearts. This was a very inexperienced and poorly prepared French team amputated of their best players with only 2 weeks to prepare under new management and still managed to lose by only 2 points. 

France can really be proud of their team’s overall display. Their defence was organised and rock solid. Both young outside halves - Matthieu Jalibert and Belleau were impressive and showed little fear on the international stage.

It is a shame then that Jalibert and scrum half Antoine Dupont have since been ruled out for the rest of the season after sustaining serious knee injuries in France’s Six Nations defeat to Ireland.

Teenage fly-half Jalibert limped off in the first half of Les Bleus’ opening-day loss at Stade de France and has sustained a partial tear to his posterior cruciate ligament and faces a lengthy absence, bringing his first professional campaign to a premature end.

Lionel Beauxis has been called up as a replacement and could win his first cap in six years against Scotland at Murrayfield.

Scrum-half Dupont suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament that will keep him out of action until next season, while back-row Kevin Gourdon will be missing for around three weeks due to an ankle injury.

On the other end of the scale, 2nd Row Sebastien Vahaamahina had an absolutely dreadful performance, never seeming to understand Nigel Owens interpretations of the laws and if he hadn’t given away so many penalties – then maybe it could have been different.

As we go to press, France’s team hasn’t been finalised.

Scotland have been strong at home in most recent matches and they need to make that home advantage count against France.  It’s clear there is more to come from this French team, but conversely, Scotland do have home advantage and I can see the Murrayfield crowd playing an important part.

For Scotland the focus has to be on game management and just because Scotland got absolutely wiped out last Saturday, it doesn't mean they can't respond accordingly.

France are going to be really physical as they certainly showed that against Ireland, and Scotland are going to have to meet real fire with fire.

In the end, Home advantage should see them through, but they have to deliver that accuracy within the game with distinct improvements in their line-out, more aggression in the contact area and a more direct running style and a bit of creativity with the ball in hand.

France don’t travel well but do have a very good record at Murrayfield with four wins from their last six visits to the Scottish capital. The first 20 minutes will be critical and if Scotland again fall behind early in the half then I fear there could be more soul searching and navel contemplating north of the border with England to follow shortly afterwards. A couple of early Russell penalties and they could win quite easily as this French team like many before them seem penalty prone. Gut says Scotland will bite back but one score game.

Scotland 20 France 17

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