2018 Six Nations Week 1 Preview - Let battles Commence...

Week one – lets’ see your correspondent’s predictions:

Wales v Scotland

First up to Cardiff’s Principality Stadium for the Celtic challenge between Wales and Scotland.  The late great Ray Gravelle must be smiling down from his cloud with a little glint in his eye and the trademark “West is Best” at the exploits of his beloved Scarlets in the European Champions Cup. There is a feeling of cautious optimism as the whole Principality seems to have got “Scarlet Fever” such is the strong impact that the Llanelli-based regional side has had on the rugby watching public.

It’s no big surprise then that coach Warren Gatland has included 10 Scarlets in match day 15 to face Scotland. 

As I highlighted in last week’s preview, Worcester's Josh Adams, the Premiership's leading try-scorer, has been fast-tracked to the match day 15 and will make his debut on the right-wing. Whether he has the ability at this level, which will be clearly be a step up in class is yet to be seen but it is a bold selection and the right one on player fitness and form. 

Leigh Halfpenny has not had a stellar season by his high standards but will start at full back but here is no place in the match-day 23 for Northampton wing George North. Wales must hope Halfpenny has his kicking game face on with its normal metronomic accuracy in what could be a tight game. Stef Evans is lucky to retain his place on the other wing and one must hope he has learned from his Autumn experiences.

Rhys Patchell is handed the fly-half role instead of an injured Dan Biggar, keeping the club partnership with Gareth Davies who takes the place of the of Toulon-bound Rhys Webb. Wales are without several injured senior players for the Scotland clash - the list includes players like Biggar, Sam Warburton, Jonathan Davies and Rhys Webb - but there is a recall for fit-again back-row forward Ross Moriarty.

Scarlets centre Hadleigh Parkes retains his place with club team mate Scott Williams following an impressive try-scoring Test debut against South Africa.

In the pack, an all Scarlets front row sees Rob Evans pack down with Ken Owens and the recalled fit again Samson Lee. Captain Alun Wyn-Jones will pack down with Cory Hill with Ross Moriarty packing down at number eight alongside Aaron Shingler and I am pleased to see Gatland retain Josh Navidi at open side in the back-row ahead of Justin Tipuric.

Plenty of strength and experience on the Welsh bench with former starters Tomas Francis, Bradley Davies, and Justin Tipuric covering the forwards with youngsters Wyn Jones and Dragon’s prospect Elliot Dee whilst there are exciting attacking options of Aled Davies, Gareth Anscombe, and Owen Watkin to liven up the back division.

As for Scotland, coach Gregor Townsend makes six changes to the side which thrashed Australia in the Autumn, but will that be enough for a first Scottish victory in Cardiff since 2002?

Newcastle back Chris Harris will make his first Scotland start against Wales.

Glasgow Warriors full-back Stuart Hogg – a late withdrawal from November’s win over the Wallabies – and Newcastle Falcons centre Harris are the two changes to the back division, while Gordon Reid, Jon Welsh, Ben Toolis and Cornell du Preez come into the starting pack.

Props Welsh and Reid last featured for Scotland in 2015 and last year’s summer tour respectively, while du Preez and Toolis have been elevated from their replacement status in the Wallabies win.

An otherwise unchanged back line sees scrum-half Ali Price start his ninth Test in the past ten Scotland matches to partner Finn Russell at half-back.

Centre Huw Jones makes his first appearance for Scotland at inside-centre, accommodating incoming outside-centre Harris.

Sale Sharks wing Byron McGuigan retains his place alongside Tommy Seymour and Hogg after his late inclusion against Australia yielded two tries and a man-of-the-match award.

Hooker Stuart McInally starts in the front-row between Welsh and Reid, with captain John Barclay and Hamish Watson returning to partner du Preez in the back-row.

Wales have home advantage and look to have the edge in the front row and line-out with the withdrawal of Scottish stalwart Richie Gray. A lot will come down to the ball flow through the half backs to the exciting promise of the Welsh three quarters and can Wales avoid a high penalty count in the rucks and set plays?

I don’t see this Scottish side having quite enough oomph to see off the Welsh pack and I feel Wales will win fairly comfortably despite a tight score line.

Wales 23 Scotland 17

France v Ireland

So, to Paris for game 2 with Ireland providing a formidable start to a France team currently on a seven-game winless streak and who haven't finished inside the top-two in the Six Nations championship since 2011. Ireland's last trip to Paris ended in an agonising 10-9 defeat in 2016 and Ireland will be hoping to catch a rebuilding France on the hoof for their opening encounter in Paris.

A dismal autumn series in which they failed to beat Japan at home prompted the federation to take the unprecedented step of sacking their coach Guy Noves.  

Former Italian coach Jacques Brunel was hastily installed as his replacement on the same day shortly after Christmas. Brunel has not had long to come to terms with his new role and it’s not clear that he can realistically have a game plan about how he can beat a Joe Schmidt led Ireland.  

Brunel has tried to bring in experience into his coaching line up but he has had a tough time persuading many club coaches to put their lot in with the failing national set up.

For his other coaches, initially Brunel wanted Collazo, the La Rochelle coach, and he turned him down. Then they went for Galthie, who is the Toulon coach and he turned them down. 

So, he has been left with Jean Baptiste Elissalde, who played under Guy Noves, coached under Guy Noves, then coached under Ugo Mola who was sacked by Toulouse last year and he (Elissalde) hadn't found another job.

The defence coach is a coaching co-ordinator from the French federation. They're sharing a forwards coach with the U20s. The lineout coach is Julian Bonaire, who was a great player but is unproven as a coach.

Given this set up, it’s very hard to see where the technicians are in that coaching set-up who can build a game plan in two weeks, because that's all the time they've realistically had to prepare.

Brunel chooses two new caps in an inexperienced line up where Teenage fly-half Matthieu Jalibert and Geoffrey Palis will make their France debuts. Bordeaux Begles’ Jalibert will continue his rapid rise at Stade de France, starting alongside Maxime Machenaud in Jacques Brunel’s first match in charge of Les Bleus.

Palis also makes his international bow at full-back in Paris, while Adrien Pelissie, Dany Priso, Cedate Gomes Sa and Marco Tauleigne could make their debuts off the bench.

Captain Guilhem Guirado will be joined by props Jefferson Poirot and Rabah Slimani in an experienced front row on the first day of the tournament.

Henry Chavancy and Remi Lamerat will form the centre pairing, while Racing 92 duo Virimi Vakatawa and Teddy Thomas get the nod on the wings.

For Ireland, Joe Schmidt must be confident that everything points to an Ireland victory. 

They should expect to win. The squad will speak about how they don't know what French team is going to turn up. But the reality is that Ireland will be a lot more comfortable in what they want to do and I would be shocked if Ireland don't win Saturday's encounter. 

Leinster lock James Ryan and Ulster wing Jacob Stockdale have been named in the Ireland team to face France on Saturday.

The two 21-year-olds, who will each win their fifth caps, impressed Joe Schmidt over the summer and autumn games and will start their first NatWest Six Nations matches in Paris.

As expected, Rob Kearney takes his place at full-back and Keith Earls starts on the right wing. Stockdale, who has scored four tries from his four appearances, stays on the left flank.

Leinster’s Robbie Henshaw hooks up with former Connacht team-mate Bundee Aki, also a Six Nations debutant, in the centre, while Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray are the half-backs.

Injuries to Sean O’Brien, Rhys Ruddock and Jamie Heaslip opened up a back-row vacancy and Leinster’s Josh van der Flier got the nod to join Munster duo Peter O’Mahony and CJ Stander, who starts at number 8.

Ryan partners Iain Henderson in the second row as the head coach sticks with the combination that started against Argentina in the last of the November Tests.

Hooker Rory Best captains the side with Tadhg Furlong at tighthead, while Cian Healy edged the loosehead battle with Jack McGrath.

Schmidt favourite Fergus McFadden returns to the squad ahead of Andrew Conway, who is suffering from a slight knee injury.

Fit-again Joey Carbery replaces Ian Keatley as cover for Sexton and Kearney, while Luke McGrath is chosen ahead of Kieran Marmion for replacement scrum-half.

Sean Cronin’s fine form sees him return to the bench. John Ryan, McGrath, Devin Toner and Dan Leavy are the other forward replacements.

The in-form Jordan Larmour surprisingly fails to make the squad but I would expect him to get game time at some point later in the Championship.

Everything points to Ireland dominance and if France can keep the gap to two scores they will have done well. Bet your spare cash on this one although the bookie’s odds won’t be stellar.

France 9 Ireland 31

Italy v England

So on to the final match on Sunday where the Azzurri welcome Eddie Jones' England to Rome's Stadio Olimpico, with a huge crowd expected to watch both sides open their campaigns. Italy have nothing to lose but having never beaten England in any Six nations encounter, Coach Conor O’Shea will be hoping for an improved performance on their mediocre Autumn and at least be able to compete and stay with England for much of the encounter. What he will be keen to avoid is a fast start for England because if their superiority comes through at an early stage, then Italy could be blown away in the first 2o minutes.

As we go to publish, the Italian team has not yet been announced but I expect Conor O’Shea to go with experience.  I expect that Alessandro Zanni will make his 100th international appearance against England. The 34-year-old Benetton forward has plenty of experience to offer with 45 appearances in the Championship to date since his debut back in 2006.

Zanni hasn't featured for his country since facing Wales in the 2016 Championship but was part of the squad that O'Shea selected for the autumn internationals.

Giovanni Licata could be set for his NatWest 6 Nations debut in the back row having made three appearances for the Azzurri at the end of last year. After impressing in substitute appearances against Fiji and Argentina, the 20-year-old Zebre man got his first start against South Africa in November.

The youngster is highly thought of in Italy and will have no better role model in the back row to learn from than talisman Sergio Parisse.

O'Shea is certainly not short of options at fly-half. Tommaso Allan and Ian McKinley have been battling it out for a starting spot at Benetton Rugby all season.

Meanwhile at Zebre, Carlo Canna continues to show what he can do in the Guinness PRO14 ensuring O'Shea has a really tough decision to make.

McKinley has just three caps and is the most inexperienced of the trio, internationally speaking at least, while Canna was the man in possession of the No.10 jersey during the autumn.

Most are expecting flying Zebre winger Mattia Bellini to operate on one flank but questions remain over who O'Shea will want opposite him. They are left with a choice between Matteo Minozzi, Giulio Bisegni and Tommaso Benvenuti to counter the English threat whilst also offering the Azzurri an option out wide.

England expects, is a common expression that was used to motivate its soldiers and there is no question that Eddie Jones will certainly expect his England team to do far better than last year’s embarrassing show with the Azzurri at Twickenham when England were out foxed in a game which lost most of its structure and was dire for the spectator.

Dylan Hartley captains an experienced English side with 689 caps across the starting 15 in what will be his 90th Test for England. He will pack down with Mako Vunipola and Dan Cole in a very experienced front row.

Joe Launchbury and Maro Itoje partner in the boiler room whilst Sam Simmonds starts at number eight for his fourth cap while fellow Exeter team mate Alec Hepburn could make his England debut having been named as a finisher.

Simmonds will form a new back row with Chris Robshaw and Courtney Lawes.

Ben Te’o is preferred to Jonathan Joseph at centre and will partner Owen Farrell after nearly a year’s absence from the England side.

Ben Youngs will start his 56th Test match overtaking Matt Dawson’s record of most starts for an England halfback.  He will partner George Ford at half back with Jonny May, Anthony Watson and Mike Brown in the back three.

Brown has recovered from an eye complaint, while Jack Nowell is on the bench after recovering from his own ankle injury.

Danny Care will equal Dawson for most caps as scrum half (77) if the finisher plays a role in the match.

Sam Simmonds starts at number eight, alongside Courtney Lawes and Chris Robshaw in the back row. Simmonds does not have the sheer size of Vunipola but possesses more pace, and supporters will no doubt be fascinated to see how he performs against the Azzurri in Rome.

There will be only one result and England won’t slip up. Sure, they have an unfamiliar line up but the depth of quality is high and I fear this game could degenerate quickly into a rout. I’ll be kind and expect an England bonus point and a 36 point spread.

Italy 8 England 44