Week 3 - 2018 Six Nations - A Weekend of Away wins?

After a one-week break, its back to the Six Nations this weekend for the crucial third round of matches. Rugby Raconteur is happily sitting with a 100% prediction record on the first 6 fixtures and also showing good accuracy in winning margins with a 95% accuracy – a total prediction of 104 points spread and an actual spread of 109 points.

There are some really significant match ups which could determine the final destination of the championship trophy. England make the difficult journey north to face Scotland at Murrayfield whilst Ireland will host Wales in Dublin. The third match will see the Championship’s only winless teams – France and Italy meeting for what could be the wooden spoon decider.

Before we go on to review this week’s matches, I cannot move on without making some comments about “TMOGATE” – the major talking point of week 2’s tight encounter at Twickenham.

A referee can easily change the result of a match with his/her decision-making and the TMO is supposed to assist the referee with making the right calls throughout the match.

If the referee is not 100% sure whether to award the try or not, he/she can ask for a video replay. This could be because he/she is not certain whether a player had gone into touch before the player put required pressure on the ball for the try to be awarded, or because a potential knock on may have occurred while the player was trying to ground the ball.

The use of Television Match Official (TMO) has been used in rugby union since 2001. Since the introduction of the TMO, the number of mistakes made by match officials has decreased significantly. However, in this instance the TMO made a total hash of the decision. He didn’t take long enough and didn’t look at enough angles to truly make an effective decision. This raises two questions:

Was it a try? In my view – yes it was and how he came to the conclusion that there wasn’t contact and the England player touched it first frankly beggar’s belief.

Did it change the end result? This is the harder one to answer but again in my view, the better team on the day won the match. Wales played very well but didn’t take their chances and were always on the wrong side of the scoreboard. They just couldn't convert that effort and energy into points whereas England had two try scoring chances and took both of them.

As my friend and Rugby Japan Journo Rich Freeman pointed out to me though, World Rugby made an even bigger hash of it by later commenting that it should have been a try. That move completely undermined their own officials and World Rugby also need to look hard at their refereeing and TMO assignments. Sending a guy halfway around the world to be a TMO is clearly ridiculous.

Anyway, enough of ancient history and what could have been – let’s look ahead to the week 3 encounters:

France v Italy

First game up on Friday evening is France versus Italy in a unique game being played under the lights in a sure-to-be-packed Stade Vélodrome in Marseilles. This will be an interesting encounter and looks destined to be the wooden spoon decider with both France and Italy losing their opening two matches. France having been beaten 15-13 by Ireland and 32-26 by Scotland; whilst Italy have already clocked up over 100 points in the “Points Against” column with defeats at home to England 46-15 and 56-19 away to Ireland in Dublin.

France really have mainly themselves to blame. They took Ireland by surprise in Paris and looked like holding on against Scotland at Murrayfield but in both instances, the high penalty count has seriously hurt them and unless they rapidly improve their discipline on the field of play – it’s hard to see Les Blues rebounding to a higher level.

To make matters worse, France have suspended eight players following a late-night altercation in Edinburgh – including try scoring machine and arguably France’s stand out player – Teddy Thomas.

It has been eight Tests since France's last win, and with a total of nine players left out of the squad following Round Two and some familiar faces called back in, Head Coach Jacques Brunel was formerly the Head honcho at Italy too and he will be keen to do well against his former team and looking to get France on track for their first win of the season.

Brunel has changed a third of his team but has kept faith in scrum half Maxime Machenaud and out-half Lionel Beauxis. France have frequently chopped and changed at half-back under their last three head coaches – so some stability at half backs is a welcome call.

Outside the half backs, Brunel has added fresh blood to the threequarters for the game in Marseille. With Teddy Thomas not in the squad, and Virimi Vakatawa struggling for form, there were always likely to be changes in the back three, and in the end, Brunel has completely overhauled his wingers and full-backs.

Winger Rémy Grosso replaces the disappointing Virimi Vakatawa and Benjamin Fall comes in for Teddy Thomas. Fall will make his Six Nations debut, having previously won his only French cap against Canada in the distant 2015 World Cup.

Mathieu Bastareaud is named at centre in place of Remi Lamerat and Hugo Bonneval replaces Geoffrey Palis at fullback.

The final change comes in the pack where Paul Gabrillagues gets the nod in the second row in place of Arthur Iturria while there are also six changes to the bench.

20-year-old Lyon scrum-half Baptiste Couilloud could make his debut off the bench, while Romain Taofifenua, Kelian Galletier, Francois Trinh-Duc and Gael Fickou make their first matchday squads of this year’s championship. Couilloud has been in outstanding form for Lyon, alongside starting fly-half Lionel Beauxis, having already racked up eight tries this season.

That included another score against Clermont on Saturday, as he helped his team to a comfortable win over the French champions, and Brunel will be hoping his pace and support running will come into play in the latter stages.

As for Italy, they have quite honestly been awful so far but in fairness have faced the competitions two strongest teams in the opening two rounds. Conor O’Shea has again rolled the changes as the Azzurri try and gain something form yet another embarrassing Six Nations.

Italy have a young group of players which O’Shea will be hoping learns match after match. They always knew that the first two games against England and Ireland would be very tough, but there have been few positives in their performances.

A year ago, the depth and the internal competition Italy could count on today were totally different, and O’Shea will hope the progress Benetton and Zebre having been making in the Pro 14 will eventually translate at international level.

After defeats to England and Italy, the Azzurri's confidence remains undimmed and they are hoping to upset the odds on French soil. France have beaten Italy five times in succession, including a World Cup victory, but Les Bleus will be wary as twice before have Italy beaten them in the Championship in 2011 and 2013 but both came at home, and O'Shea has made three changes for the clash at the Stade Vélodrome.

O'Shea has made three changes from the side beaten by Ireland, with prop Andrea Lovotti and hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini both gaining starts, while Maxime Mbanda features in the back-row, packing down alongside Sebastian Negri and skipper Sergio Parisse, who wins his 132nd cap.

Lovotti and Ghiraldini started the first game of this year's Championship against England and are recalled in place of Nicola Quaglio and Luca Bigi respectively. The scrum struggled that day against the defending champions but O'Shea looks confident in their ability to right those wrongs against France.

Lovotti and Ghiraldini bring more experience than their replacements Nicola Quaglio and Luca Bigi and will need to be at their best to halt a settled looking starting French pack. 

The third and final change to the starting XV comes in the back row where Maxime Mbanda is promoted from the bench for his first start of the Championship into the back row for Braam Steyn at No.7, the latter dropping out of the match day 23 altogether.

Mbanda was Italy's top tackler in last year's Championship but has had to settle for a spot on the bench in the opening two rounds.

George Biagi comes onto the bench with both Renato Giammarioli and Giovanni Licata out injured.

For the third match in a row Italy have stuck with their entire backline - and they have shown signs of clicking as an attacking force. They ran in three tries in Dublin, albeit after the game was already lost, and also caused England some problems in Rome with two scores and another disallowed.

Sergio Parisse captains the side that has an unchanged back line, with Matteo Minozzi in the back three alongside wings Tommaso Benvenuti and Mattia Bellini.

Tommaso Castello and Tommaso Boni are the centres while Tommaso Allan and Marcello Violi remain in the half-backs. 

The four flying Tommasos - Boni, Castello and Benvenuti, with Allan pulling the strings at fly-half - run hard and can cause problems to any defences. But it is the attacking guile of Matteo Minozzi at full-back and the power of Mattia Bellini that have really caught the eye for the Italians.

Allan's game management and reliable goal-kicking are clearly favoured by O'Shea but Carlo Canna remains a game changer off the bench. His fine distribution could prove vital in the latter stages when the game gets stretched. 

This is a really difficult game to call but you have to go with home form and assume that eventually France will start to click and punish a vulnerable opponent. Italy haven’t looked anything showing their normal strength in the pack and I fear they could struggle badly in the set pieces. It will be important for both teams on Friday to learn from their mistakes and execute their game-plans, showing off their rugby throughout the game.

The game will really depend upon quick ball and if the French half backs get that moving then Bastareaud will punch some holes in the Italian defence and France should be able to make their experience and strength count with a comfortable victory.

France 36 Italy 13

Ireland v Wales

Match number two see an inviting matchup between Ireland and Wales in the early afternoon kick off at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Ireland come into the game after the rout against the Italians as Ireland now sit two wins from two games before Wales arrive in Dublin.

As expected, after their narrow and some would say fortuitous win in Paris; Ireland cantered to victory over Italy in the second match of their Six Nations campaign but the home side worryingly shipped 19 points in the final 25 minutes as the Italians mounted a late drive for respectability. 

A more detailed examination of the victory over the hapless Italians would show that at times Ireland were ruthlessly clinical and looked very sharp in attack in wrapping up the bonus point before the break and pushed the lead to 42-0 after Rory Best's try was converted early in the second half.

The flip side however was the concession of three tries (no previous Italian side has ever left Dublin with 19 points) and some worrying defensive lapses.

Such was the feeble Italian resistance in the first half, that it would be very difficult to read too much into the Irish performance, but notwithstanding, there is plenty for Joe Schmidt and his management team to mull over before the third outing of the competition.

Ireland could be vulnerable against Wales if they don't iron out the defensive flaws which appeared late in the Italy game. 

The three tries that they scored were pretty much down to Irish defensive system failures. For the first try, Ireland effectively overloaded their short side with too many defenders, which created a problem on the outside defensive line and Flanker Dan Leavy got caught and we were down numbers. 

  

The second Italian try was almost a replica of Teddy Thomas’s defence breaching try in Paris. Jordan Larmour came far too far out of the line on the outside channel, isolated himself, then got beaten and Italy went down the wide-open channel that he left open. 

On the final try, Ireland were defending near their line and got very condensed around the maul. This had the consequence that it left the whole midfield wide open. One pass cut out three Irish defenders and Rob Kearney was left facing a two-on-one. 

Larmour tried his best to get behind him and cut it off but it was impossible. With 20 metres of space, 10 metres from the goal-line, every international winger will score. 

As Rugby Raconteur reaches his publication deadline, the Irish team had not been announced but several authoritative “leaks” give us a good picture of what side Joe Schmidt will put out against Wales.

Andrew Porter and James Ryan look set to come into the Ireland team to face Wales on Saturday if injury concerns over Lions pair Tadhg Furlong and Iain Henderson proving insurmountable. There is serious concern over the fitness of British and Irish Lions Furlong, who pulled up with a hamstring injury against Italy two weeks ago.

Defence coach Andy Farrell said they'd be taking no risks with the prop this week and reports in Ireland are saying he'll miss the game.

Various media reports indicate that head coach Joe Schmidt will make five changes in personnel to his starting XV.

Schmidt looks likely to turn to the highly-rated Chris Farrell to come in for Robbie Henshaw at outside centre after the Leinster man’s injury against the Azzurri, while CJ Stander resumes Test duties at the base of the scrum, with Jack Conan among the replacements. - the Ireland coach hinting that Farrell was the leading contender last week.

The Munster centre has played excellently for his province this season and is a hard-carrying option and defensive stalwart but is a lot less dynamic in attack.

Porter was eye-catching upon his early arrival for Furlong against the Italians, and holds off competition from John Ryan at tighthead, with the Munster man on the bench.

Only captain Rory Best looks likely to remain in the front row with the continued rotation policy at loosehead likely to see Cian Healy come in for provincial team-mate Jack McGrath.

In the second row, Ryan comes in for his second start of the competition to partner Devin Toner in the second row.

Farrell is the only expected change in the backline with a back three of Rob Kearney, Keith Earls and Jacob Stockdale.

Bundee Aki will almost certainly partner Farrell in midfield with Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray again the half-back combination.

Ryan will pack down with Devin Toner in the lock positions, Stander joins Peter O’Mahony and Dan Leavy in the backrow.

Elsewhere on the replacements bench, the versatile Fergus McFadden is tipped to get the nod over Jordan Larmour for the number 23 jersey.

Wales Coach Warren Gatland will take’s charge of Wales for his 100th Test this week in Dublin. He will have been pleased with the way his new look Welsh team performed at Twickenham shutting out England in the second half before succumbing to a narrow defeat.

Wales recovered well from a shaky start but never took control of the game and didn’t take their chances. Patchell missed an early penalty and then there were two kickable penalties spurned with kicks to touch where maybe the more reliable kickers Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny could have put England under greater pressure and kept the scoreboard ticking over.

Wales will move on from Twickenham with a high degree of optimism and Head coach Warren Gatland has recalled a trio of players with 180 caps of Wales experience to take on Ireland in Dublin which will certainly mean that Ireland can’t take anything for granted.

Dan Biggar has given Wales' NatWest 6 Nations hopes a lift by returning from injury for Saturday's clash against Ireland in Dublin.

The Ospreys fly-half has recovered from a shoulder problem that ruled him out of Wales' opening two games against Scotland and England.

Biggar returns to the starting line-up instead of Rhys Patchell, who after an encouraging game against Scotland was found wanting in many areas against England and was substituted after 55 minutes. Patchell drops completely from the match day 23 while there are two other changes from the side beaten 12-6 by England at Twickenham just 10 days ago.

Biggar features for the first time since he was hurt during the Ospreys' European Champions Cup defeat against Clermont Auvergne last month.

He will be undoubtedly short of match fitness so it wouldn't surprise me if Anscombe appears for most of the second half. I think Patchell has some great skills but he has simply not learnt to boss games yet and Dublin in what is pretty much a cup final game for Wales probably isn't the best place for him to develop.

Personally, I think this is a disappointing and risky selection and I would have preferred to see Cardiff Blue Gareth Anscombe start at Outside Half after an excellent individual display against England. The issue, however, is whether Biggar can also fit into the new attacking style Wales have been adopting with ball in hand.

They have gone down a particular path during this Championship with a new off-loading, free-wheeling wide game and it’s a route which has garnered widespread popular support and with clear results and progress.

The question is whether Biggar can complement that style in the way Rhys Patchell did against Scotland and Gareth Anscombe did in the final 25 minutes at Twickenham or disrupt things?

Anscombe does at least retain a place on the bench and will be a dangerous playmaking game changer option for Wales alongside Northampton wing George North who remains on the bench with Gatland opting for a back-three of Halfpenny, Williams and Steff Evans.

Full-back Leigh Halfpenny has recovered from a foot infection and replaces the outstanding Gareth Anscombe. Given the missed goal kick opportunities last match, it is no surprise then that Warren Gatland has brought back the 75-cap Wales international immediately back into his squad at the earliest opportunity while Saracens wing Liam Williams is in for Worcester's Josh Adams. Adams is another who doesn’t make the match day 23 despite a strong game and a try for Worcester last weekend in their win over Gloucester.

Williams, meanwhile, suffered an abdominal injury during the autumn campaign and has not played for Wales since they beat Georgia in November.

Gatland has named an unchanged pack for the trip to Dublin. The all-Scarlets front-row of Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Samson Lee feature for a third consecutive game. Cory Hill partners captain Alun Wyn Jones in the second-row with Aaron Shingler, Josh Navidi and Ross Moriarty comprising the back-row.

Number eight Ross Moriarty, had raised concerns about his fitness as he missed Gloucester's Aviva Premiership game against Worcester last weekend after suffering a shoulder knock.

The game still comes too soon for another injury victim - Lions No 8 Toby Faletau, who has resumed training after a knee injury but is desperately short of match fitness. The dynamic No.8 will feature for his club side Bath as he continues to recover from knee injury which has kept him on the side-lines since early December.

It's a strong and dangerous looking Welsh team. Ireland will have to be up to it - both mentally and physically - to prevail. I can’t see the Irish backs scoring too many tries against that backline and Wales have serious pace in attack. The Welsh tight five has added a hard edge to it and they are very strong at scrum and lineout so it’s hard to see Ireland gaining a real advantage there either. I think it’ s going to be a really tough low scoring game and Ireland will need the crowd to do their job to see this one home.

I think Ireland tend to rely far too much on Sexton and Murray hoofing the ball and hoping Keith Earls gets there’s before a defender. That probably won’t work against this Welsh side and with two first class kickers in their line-up, any penalty transgressions will likely be punished with 3 points.

There are times as a pundit and blogger you have to take a risk and I feel this Welsh team fear no one right now. The English defeat was almost a moral victory of sorts given the lengthy injury list and controversial TMO call, so the men in red travel with a swagger despite the do-or-die nature of the contest. The loss of Furlong and Henderson are huge for Ireland so I am going stick my neck out and call for a rare away victory. Welsh win in a tight and nail biting match.

Ireland 23 Wales 27

Scotland v England

The final match of week 3 sees the 125th competition for the Calcutta Cup. Since the cup was first competed for in 1879, England have won 71 times to Scotland’s 39 and Scotland are looking to reclaim the Calcutta Cup by defeating England in the Six Nations for the first time since 2008. They have gone a decade without a win over the Auld Enemy, with only 3 wins and a draw to show for their efforts in the last 25 meetings while their last try in Edinburgh against the English came all the way back in 2004.

They will certainly want to erase the memories of last season where one of their heaviest defeats saw Scotland lose by a 40-point margin - 61–21

Head Coach Gregor Townsend will be only too aware of just how impressive England have become in recent times under Eddie Jones, with just one defeat in the last two years. The return to Murrayfield is a match they must win to retain any realistic chance of a share in claiming the Six Nations title.

It was a much more encouraging performance in round 2, but Scotland still twice trailed by 10 points against Les Bleus, but fought back – thanks in large part to the boot of Greig Laidlaw – to record a 32-26 victory.

Townsend might have been tempted to mix things up after the win over France to keep his team on his toes but instead he has kept faith with the players and it is the same XV who lined up against Les Bleus who get the nod once again.

That means that Greig Laidlaw remains at scrum-half after his man-of-the-match display against France. Laidlaw had finished that game at fly-half, partnering Ali Price, but he will continue in the No.9 jersey from the start.

Five of the backline are British and Irish Lions - Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour, Sean Maitland, Finn Russell and Greig Laidlaw, while there are three new faces on the bench as WP Nel, Tim Swinson and Nick Grigg all come into the match-day 23.

Of the three changes on the bench, Nick Grigg's inclusion is perhaps the most striking choice. Where WP Nel and Tim Swinson are both returning from injury, Grigg is rewarded for some fine recent form with club side Glasgow.

The 25-year-old centre won his only cap to date on last summer's tour in a clash with Fiji, and now comes into the 23 in place of stuttering Chris Harris.

Townsend will be delighted to be getting some of his experienced forwards back fit again, most notably WP Nel, who last played for Scotland in the Championship in 2016 and has been battling injuries.

The tighthead prop comes straight back onto the bench to provide cover for Simon Berghan, while Tim Swinson's outing for the Warriors last weekend earns him the nod in place of Ben Toolis.

Flying full-back Blair Kinghorn is also on the bench once more and could make his international debut after being an unused replacement last time out.

Eddie Jones' white shirted warriors have racked up two wins from two games thus far and England have every right to be confident ahead of their trip to Edinburgh. They can be very satisfied with their win over Wales as they kept a spirited Welsh side try less at Twickenham but will want to continue their momentum towards a historic third consecutive Six Nations title. 

The Calcutta Cup clash will register milestones for Joe Launchbury and captain Dylan Hartley. Launchbury is to win his 50th England cap, having made his debut against Fiji in 2012, while Hartley becomes the nation's second most capped player by surpassing the 91-appearance mark set by Jonny Wilkinson.

Having spent plenty of time on the side-lines, Nathan Hughes has returned to fitness at the perfect time for England head coach Jones.

Sam Simmonds, a double try-scorer in his side's 46-15 triumph over Italy in Round One, has been ruled out with a shoulder injury but Wasps man Hughes, who has missed the last six weeks with knee ligament damage sustained on club duty for Wasps in December; will start at number eight in the only change to Eddie Jones' starting team.

Simmonds was withdrawn at half-time of the 12-6 victory over Wales and is expected to miss the remainder of the Six Nations.

Billy Vunipola, England’s first choice in the position, is still unavailable because of a broken arm but the Fijian-born Hughes offers similar ball-carrying threat compared to the lighter and more mobile Simmonds.

Jonathan Joseph has edged Ben Te'o to retain his starting place at outside centre and, apart from Hughes' return, the pack remains the same.

On the bench, Joe Marler replaces Alec Hepburn after serving a six-week ban for a dangerous clear-out and will provide cover for loosehead prop Mako Vunipola, but the replacements otherwise remain unchanged.

Any match between these two teams is going to be confrontational, and notoriously the weather is not going to help with that.

Scotland will be well organised but it is unlikely they will be quite as hard out of the blocks as Wales were at Twickenham. I expect that there will be more opportunities for George Ford to get close to the line and bring in attacking players around him, which didn’t really happen in the last game.

England's defence is well organised and has a habit of snuffing out the attacking threats from most teams conceding just 21 points so far in 160 minutes of rugby in the 2018 NatWest 6 Nations.

In the open play, England have a habit of often not competing for ball at the rucks and being happy to be in the defensive line, making big hits and pushing teams back, rather than competing and giving penalties away.

A lot will depend on the Edinburgh weather. If it’s wet and slippery then any team trying to steal those balls on the ground is dangerous and the referee is going to give advantage to the attacking side.

If it’s a dry day then there is a very fast line that England could create in defence and that will give good opportunity for their formidable forward pack to compete and win ball at the breakdowns.

Both teams will want a well-functioning line out and don’t expect either team to be doing anything too fancy in the set piece, they will want to win their own set pieces well and put pressure on without being ill disciplined at the scrum and trying to nick the ball at the lineout.

Scotland were better against France but I don’t expect England to slip up and their forward power will be far too much for the weaker Scottish pack. Heart and belief won’t be enough to upset the England juggernaut and I expect a comfortable England victory

Scotland 16 England 24

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Week 2 - Six Nations 2018 - Make or Break

Week 1 of the 2018 NatWest Six Nations was an exciting opening to the Northern Hemisphere’s premier rugby competition. Your correspondent had 100% accuracy in predicting the winners but the winning margins were significantly different to what I expected. Amongst the winners, Wales and England were especially impressive whilst Ireland failed to capitalise on their dominance and almost paid the price save for one piece of brilliant kicking accuracy at the death.

For Scotland, France and Italy – one has to think their chances of challenging for the title are all but over after the first stanza with Scotland in particular failing to live up to the pre-tournament hype and it was a clear shock just how badly they performed in Cardiff.

France had some impressive spells in difficult conditions in Paris while Italy caused a few heart flutters in the English defensive line scoring an impressive two tries in an energetic performance in Rome.

We will come back to an analysis of the individual team performances later in this edition of Rugby Raconteur but first let’s look preview the Week 2 confrontations:

Ireland v Italy

Ireland rode their luck in Paris and if the team were a cat they would have used up all their nine lives in Paris! Ireland looked comfortable and in control of the match against a penalty conceding French side until the 62nd minute mark. When Johnny Sexton missed a penalty, which would have given Ireland a nine-point cushion, France smelt blood and saw an opportunity to not only take the lead but secure the win.

The failure to put away a determined Les Bleus, no doubt stung by the withering criticism that came with a seven-match winless streak; gave them hope and when Teddy Thomas put his foot on the gas to walk through a static Irish defence to give Jacques Brunel’s side the lead with six minutes to play, Ireland looked dead and buried.

A missed penalty handed the pre-match favourites one more opportunity to head up field but the posts must have looked tiny in the distance. Had Sexton’s long-range drop at goal died a yard before it did, the questions at Schmidt’s post-match press conference would have been significantly more direct and pointed.

Ireland dominated the match in so many ways. In the T&Ps - 68% possession and 68% territorial advantage. Ireland went in at half-time with a six-point lead, thanks to French indiscipline, - the penalty count at full-time was 10-6 in Ireland’s favour – all of which should have been converted into a comfortable two-score win, but the Irish pack never got totally on top of the French and their offensive play looked stale and predictable. As an attacking force Ireland were lacking in any inventiveness or creativity. The 'wonder' drop goal from Sexton really should not be allowed to gloss over a very predictable game plan.

The game plan was clearly at fault. It was totally predictable and uselessly attritional providing a recipe for the kind of disaster that one great player like Teddy Thomas can provide. If Ireland had played the conditions, the red zone corners and the French propensity for giving away penalties we would have been home and hosed after 60 minutes. They simply cannot rely on Sexton's boot off the tee and from the drop, to keep them in the running for the title. 

Controversially – I think Sexton may be the problem. He doesn’t seem to be the same player who had such a cool head in the Lion’s summer wins or Ireland’s fine Autumn displays.  His body has taken a heavy toll over his long and successful career and I feel as he reaches the twilight of his international career, it may be time for Joe Schmidt to take some chances and he should use the Italy game to give other members of his squad some game time and try some varied tactics to get the Irish championship waggon back on the rails.

Joe Schmidt has made four changes to the pack for the clash with Italy with Leinster starlet Jordan Larmour set to make his debut off the bench.

With Josh Van der Flier ruled out for the remainder of the Six Nations, his number seven jersey is taken by provincial team-mate Dan Leavy, who impressed upon his introduction at the Stade de France.

Leavy will win his sixth Irish cap and will make just his second start for his country. His first, in the 50-22 win over Japan last June saw the Leinster man score two tries.

The physical Jack Conan comes in for CJ Stander at number 8 after the Munster man put in another massive shift against France, carrying 24 times in making 40 hard-won metres.

Peter O’Mahony completes the back row, while at the front of the scrum, Jack McGrath edges out Cian Healy at loose head.

The pair have been regularly rotated and Healy will look to make an impact if called upon in the second half. McGrath is joined by captain Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong at the coal face.

In the second row, Iain Henderson will be partnered this week by Devin Toner, with Quinn Roux coming in for James Ryan on the bench, despite the Leinster man's strong showing against Les Bleus. Toner will win his 55th cap against the Italians.

The backline remains unchanged. Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton as the half-back partnership, with a back three comprising of Rob Kearney, Keith Earls and Ulster winger Jacob Stockdale.

Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki are again selected in midfield and will be hoping to have more success at picking apart the Italian defence.

The replacements bench sees quite a reshuffle in personnel. Along with Larmour, prop Andrew Porter is also poised for his first taste of the Six Nations after edging out John Ryan.

As for Italy, no one expected them to compete and win against England. For all their inexperience, Italy were generating plenty of possession against the English pack, retained possession well, and at times they attacked at pace only to be met with a wall of white shirts.

Time and again the Azzurri had to scramble furiously to keep the visitors at bay, but they were also asking questions of their own when in the English 22 as they sought to mark lock Alessandro Zanni's 100th cap by recording a first win in the fixture.

Conor O'Shea will have seen much to convince him his Italy side are improving in his second year, but it was still a 13th consecutive Six Nations defeat for the tournament's perennial strugglers.

Full back Matteo Minozzi was very impressive – certainly Italy’s man of the match and if Ireland kick aimlessly to him then Italy could front up and give the Irish something to think about in Dublin.

After the defeat to England, O'Shea has made three changes for the Aviva clash, with Braam Steyn at openside, Luca Bigi at hooker and Nicola Quaglio at loosehead prop, all starting at the Aviva.

Renato Giammarioli, Leonardo Ghiraldini and Andrea Lovotti are the players to make way. 

Expect Ireland to bounce back strongly with a bonus point victory at the Aviva. They won’t make the same mistakes twice and I expect Italy will huff and puff but will not break through the Irish defence. Ireland at a cantor.

Ireland 36 Italy 6

England v Wales

England's quest for an unprecedented hat-trick of Six Nations titles was launched by a very impressive 46-15 victory over Italy that produced a late flurry of tries as England’s superior fitness and organisation finally took hold of the match.

The reigning champions exploded out of the blocks by crossing twice through Anthony Watson inside the opening 10 minutes, but the overwhelming win their early onslaught appeared to signpost only materialised in the closing stages.

In the end Italy's whitewash was breached seven times in the bonus-point visit to the Stadio Olimpico, but England were made to work harder than they expected by a team that had nine starters with 10 caps or fewer.

Still, Eddie Jones won’t care as the English juggernaut continued its forward momentum and it means Jones's side have now won 23 of his 24 matches in charge, picking up a bonus point to match the achievements of their next opponents Wales the day before.

The Red Rose won’t fear the visit of Wales to HQ with Jones’s 100% home record of victories. The final score line flattered them in Rome with there being just seven points in it at half-time but they still crossed the whitewash seven times despite rarely engaging top gear.

One thing is certain, there won’t be any holding anything back at Twickenham from England or Wales with the ferocity and intensity likely to be in a different stratosphere to their opening rubbers. So, something has to give at English rugby headquarters. 

It wasn’t all perfect as full back Mike Brown put in a hugely laboured display – a product clearly of his lack of recent match fitness. Ben T’eo didn’t make the breaks and the loss of Ben Youngs could be playing on the mind as Jones will have to bring in new blood into his squad.

The 28-year-old Youngs will miss the rest of the Six Nations after damaging knee ligaments in Sunday's victory over Italy. The Leicester player was injured early on in the 46-15 win in Rome and scans revealed a rupture of the medial collateral ligament in his left knee and he has been side lined for four months.

Elsewhere – Sam Simmonds had a dream Six Nations debut. The 23-year-old Exeter product was England's leading tackler and also made the most metres and clean breaks, beat the most defenders and made the joint-most carries, as well as matching Anthony Watson with two tries. 

Any thoughts that Wales may have held about back row dominance will certainly have been challenged by his display with solid back up from Chris Robshaw although Courtney Lawes is clearly not yet in the same league as his team mates at flanker. The converted 2nd row tried hard but really once again showed that you need specialist players for all positions in the pack.

Eddie Jones makes just two changes to his England side to face Wales and has given matchday starts to Jonathan Joseph and Danny Care. Joseph starts at outside centre after making an impact off the bench in the 46-15 victory over Italy, with Ben Te'o demoted to a replacement role for the round two match at Twickenham.

Danny Care becomes England's most capped scrum-half, edging past the milestone of 77 held by Matt Dawson, after he was chosen to replace knee-injury victim Ben Youngs in the number nine jersey.

Richard Wigglesworth of Saracens has been drafted straight on to the bench. The 34-year-old Wrigglesworth has won 27 England caps but has not played a Test for his country since 2015.

The selection of Joseph over Te'o was widely predicted by Wales coach Warren Gatland earlier this week and sees England restored to their strongest available starting XV.

Te'o impressed with his powerful carrying against Italy but faded in his first appearance since recovering from ankle surgery in mid-June and Jones has opted for the greater experience and slick footwork of Joseph in his place.

Apart from the presence of Te'o and Wigglesworth, the bench remains unchanged. 

Warren Gatland showed once again why he is one of the world’s greatest rugby coaches. To take a Welsh team where most of the talk going into this Six Nations opener had been about the injured Welsh stars, the seven missing Lions; add to the mix a group of relatively inexperienced less celebrated, unheralded players and come up with such a dominant performance and huge win was a quite extraordinary start to their Championship campaign.

Wales' triumph marked Warren Gatland's 10th anniversary as head coach in flamboyant style, although bigger challenges now await in the shape of reigning Six Nations champions England at Twickenham next weekend, then Ireland at the Aviva Stadium.

Wales were simply magnificent. Players like Aaron Shingler, Josh Navidi, Cory Hill and Rhys Patchell could all carry the title of “journeymen” before the game having been plying their trade diligently year in, year out in the domestic game.

The players stepped up for regional rugby and they have answered any questions about the logic of picking 10 Scarlets in emphatic fashion.

In my eyes, the back row of Morierty, Navidi and the outstanding Shingler delivered probably the performance of their lives in the hard graft department to put Scotland to the sword in such in an amazing way. After a couple of mediocre displays for Wales in the Autumn, Shingler made ten carries and nine tackles, rose imperiously in the lineout, and was just into everything, transferring the form he has shown for the Scarlets over the past 18 months into the Test arena.

Shingler had spent three years in the international wilderness, while his fellow flanker Josh Navidi dwelled there for four, with Navidi carrying on where he left off in the autumn, winning two crucial breakdown penalties under his own posts, while his 17 tackles were at the heart of an immense Welsh defensive display.

As for Cory Hill, he’s another who is hardly been a household name, with Lions legend Brian O’Driscoll famously saying he didn’t know who he was when the Dragons lock was called up to the Lions tour last summer. There was also some surprise when he was picked ahead of the rejuvenated Bradley Davies to face the Scots, but he fully justified his selection with his best display in a red jersey.

Wales took their early chances well and kept Scotland off the score sheet in a competitive first half. The second half was a different game entirely with Wales being totally dominant in all areas. The sheer shock of how they dominated a Scotland team many had tipped to real Six nations contenders should not be over-stated and Wales will travel to Twickenham with no fears and realistic dreams of another shock performance.

It’s no surprise then that Warren Gatland has chosen not to tinker with his side and names an unchanged starting XV to face England. George North replaces Owen Watkin on the bench in what is the only change to the match day 23 that beat Scotland.

It was expected that the giant winger would be involved in some capacity, having impressed for Northampton Saints last weekend. But the form of Josh Adams and Steff Evans means Wales aren’t forced to throw him straight but into the starting line-up.

North has a good record against England and he provides cover at outside centre as well as on the wing. Wales had some injury concerns about Josh Adams (slight strain) and lock Cory Hill who passed his head injury assessment after taking a blow in the win over Scotland, but Saracens back Liam Williams fails to make the squad despite taking a full part in training on Monday.

The match will no doubt be super competitive as always between these great rivals, but the final score line probably won’t be that close. Wales may be confident but it’s very different playing in front of a hostile Twickenham and against a team with England’s winning mantra and playing strength.  Still, if anyone can win at Twickenham, its Wales who have won three times during Warren Gatland’s tenure as coach – more than any other team has managed in recent memory.

In the back three – both teams are pretty evenly matched although England have the advantage of stability and experience.

In the centres, I would say Wales have the edge. Parkes and Williams have tons of experience of playing together and probably have more creativity and tricks than their Saxon counterparts.

In the pack, the last two games have between them have been real ding dong battles in the front row where Wales probably have a narrow edge whilst Launchbury and Itoje have superiority over Wales despite the towering presence of captain Alun Wyn-Jones.

I would give Wales the edge in the back row and if they can keep Sam Simmonds quiet – then they could win the match but I feel it will be the half back battle and the accuracy of the tactical line and goal kicking where I feel England will finally have the edge. My heart says Wales whilst my head says England with home advantage should have the edge. Wales will fight to the last but I have to put my head above my heart and alas another England victory.

England 23 Wales 16

Scotland v France

The battle of the losers will face off at Murrayfield on Sunday and France will probably go into this one with a little more confidence than the Scots.

Scotland arrived at the Principality Stadium scenting a first victory in the Welsh capital since 2002, having crushed Australia earlier this season and ran world champions New Zealand close. But optimism was quickly replaced by damage limitation as Wales scored two converted tries during the opening 12 minutes and then ran out 34-7 victors, with Scotland restricted to a late Peter Horne try that Finn Russell converted for their only scoring contribution.

Scotland were clearly shell shocked by their utter hammering in Cardiff. They lost all the key battles, struggling up front and were not able to shackle Wales' broken-field runners on what was a deeply sobering occasion for them.

Attacking forces like full-back Stuart Hogg and centre Huw Jones could not get into the game, and Wales were never seriously troubled on an afternoon when the score line emphatically summed up their degree of dominance.

Scotland seemed to have no plan B. Seriously were Wales that good or were Scotland that bad? I can honestly say watching the game it was like the Scottish team had never met each before this game. Wales took their chances but I would say even they were shocked how easy it was. Truly awful stuff from Scotland.

The interception that led to the first Welsh try made it very difficult for Scotland. Wales gave them nothing thereafter. Scotland found themselves in a similar position to a cricket team who lose a couple of wickets for no runs in the first over of a Test match. What will have disappointed Gregor Townsend the most is the way, after having 15 minutes with his players in the dressing room at half-time and still just two scores down, the response was not a counter blast but an increase in sloppiness. Scots have to regroup quickly or their Six Nations campaign could collapse into a complete state of disrepair.

Some of Townsend’s selections really didn’t work. Newcastle’s Chris Harris had a dreadful game in the centre with some uncharacteristic unforced errors and inept tackling whilst winger Byron McGuigan is another who offered nothing in attack or defence. In the forwards too many did not stand up and be counted as Toolis, Watson, and Du Preez all failed to show any real cohesion and even John Barclay looked bewildered and flustered by what was happening in front of them.

There isn’t much encouraging news either on the injury front. Scotland won’t have lock Richie Gray available as they attempt to get their Six Nations campaign back on track against France at Murrayfield. Coach Gregor Townsend had hoped that the 65-cap second row would report to the Scottish training camp but an ongoing calf injury means the 28-year-old Toulouse player has remained in France. Wing Byron McGuigan, has also been ruled out of the French game after suffering a hamstring injury in Cardiff, and returned to his club Sale Sharks and Saracens Duncan Taylor is also out with a head injury. 

It also becomes more and more apparent that when talismanic stand-off Finn Russell has a bad game, so do Scotland. He is still young at 25 but, with 33 caps now to his name, it is time to realise that a free and easy laissez faire style can only take you so far at the highest level. There is a time and place for the maverick play. His natural instincts must be encouraged and it is these which have so often seen him repay howlers with brilliance, both in-game and from match to match. He won’t want to throw in another stinker against the country he will be living and playing in next season.

Gregor Townsend has responded to last weekend's thrashing at the hands of Wales by swinging the axe and making six changes to his Scotland line-up ahead of facing France on Sunday.

Now Townsend hopes he will get a response after recalling former skipper Greig Laidlaw at scrum-half as well as centre Peter Horne, wing Sean Maitland, prop Simon Berghan, lock Grant Gilchrist and number eight Ryan Wilson.

Ali Price - whose intercepted pass handed Gareth Davies the crucial opening score at the Principality Stadium - makes way for Laidlaw as he is joined on the bench by last week's starters Jon Welsh, Ben Toolis and Chris Harris. Cornell du Preez and the injured Byron McGuigan drop out of the 23-man squad.

Edinburgh lock Gilchrist will start in the engine room alongside Jonny Gray.

Number eight Du Preez drops out of the 23 altogether with the return of Glasgow's Wilson, who is named as one of two vice-captains along with Laidlaw.

Prop Berghan returns from suspension and takes over at tight-head from Welsh, who is among the replacements.

The versatile Horne, who scored Scotland's only try in Cardiff as a replacement, takes the number 12 jersey with Huw Jones reverting to outside centre and Harris dropping to the bench.

Alex Dunbar, having recovered from a head knock, sustained a thigh strain in training on Tuesday that also makes him doubtful for the game against England on 24 February,while Edinburgh full-back Blair Kinghorn will cover the back three and could win his first cap from the bench, with Worcester back-rower Dave Denton also among the replacements on his return to Scotland duty for the first time since the summer tour of Japan in 2016.

French Coach Jacques Brunel will have been hugely encouraged by his first game in charge and he drew an inexperienced team together that stuck with Ireland, who were ahead thanks to four Johnny Sexton penalties, until winger Teddy Thomas scorched home from 50 yards, his converted try putting the French ahead for the first time in the game with seven minutes to play.

Alas it was not to be, and Ireland’s forwards worked through 41 phases of play to set up that drop goal and break French hearts. This was a very inexperienced and poorly prepared French team amputated of their best players with only 2 weeks to prepare under new management and still managed to lose by only 2 points. 

France can really be proud of their team’s overall display. Their defence was organised and rock solid. Both young outside halves - Matthieu Jalibert and Belleau were impressive and showed little fear on the international stage.

It is a shame then that Jalibert and scrum half Antoine Dupont have since been ruled out for the rest of the season after sustaining serious knee injuries in France’s Six Nations defeat to Ireland.

Teenage fly-half Jalibert limped off in the first half of Les Bleus’ opening-day loss at Stade de France and has sustained a partial tear to his posterior cruciate ligament and faces a lengthy absence, bringing his first professional campaign to a premature end.

Lionel Beauxis has been called up as a replacement and could win his first cap in six years against Scotland at Murrayfield.

Scrum-half Dupont suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament that will keep him out of action until next season, while back-row Kevin Gourdon will be missing for around three weeks due to an ankle injury.

On the other end of the scale, 2nd Row Sebastien Vahaamahina had an absolutely dreadful performance, never seeming to understand Nigel Owens interpretations of the laws and if he hadn’t given away so many penalties – then maybe it could have been different.

As we go to press, France’s team hasn’t been finalised.

Scotland have been strong at home in most recent matches and they need to make that home advantage count against France.  It’s clear there is more to come from this French team, but conversely, Scotland do have home advantage and I can see the Murrayfield crowd playing an important part.

For Scotland the focus has to be on game management and just because Scotland got absolutely wiped out last Saturday, it doesn't mean they can't respond accordingly.

France are going to be really physical as they certainly showed that against Ireland, and Scotland are going to have to meet real fire with fire.

In the end, Home advantage should see them through, but they have to deliver that accuracy within the game with distinct improvements in their line-out, more aggression in the contact area and a more direct running style and a bit of creativity with the ball in hand.

France don’t travel well but do have a very good record at Murrayfield with four wins from their last six visits to the Scottish capital. The first 20 minutes will be critical and if Scotland again fall behind early in the half then I fear there could be more soul searching and navel contemplating north of the border with England to follow shortly afterwards. A couple of early Russell penalties and they could win quite easily as this French team like many before them seem penalty prone. Gut says Scotland will bite back but one score game.

Scotland 20 France 17

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