SIX NATIONS 2013 – WARNING - THERE MAY BE LIONS PRESENT

Six Nations 2013 starts this weekend with some interesting tests for the Northern Hemisphere’s rugby elite. Some say the Heineken Cup has over. -Taken the Six Nations as the pinnacle of the European season. Whilst the competition may be fiercer and standard of rugby superior at times, nothing can beat the magic of this tournament. In 2013, we have a British Lions tour to look forward to and so the performance of the players will be even more closely scrutinized than usual and everyone will be playing at their absolute best to hit the attentions of the Lions selections. After a 67% success rate last year- better than any newspaper pundit BTW - Lets see how I see the teams will perform this championship:

ENGLAND

Last year I predicted England to have a mediocre season and could not have been more wrong. Stuart Lancaster has proven himself a canny coach and has developed the England team beyond all recognition. This patience was rewarded with an outstanding victory over the All Blacks. Say what you like about them being tired and having one eye on the plane – a win is a win and no one wants to lose to England. FACT!  So will England kick on or will they have a hangover from that momentous victory? I think England will dominate this year’s championship. They have a strong squad, their clubs are doing well in Europe and the draw with all the Blue teams at home gives them a massive platform to build on. In the backs, Mike Brown has emerged to rightly take his place in the white shirt. He is a very underrated player and the courage of the selectors to pick him ahead of more established players has been vindicated. England three-quarter line will be without the bulk and smash/kill tactics of Tuigali for the first match and personally I think that will make England stronger. Billy Twelvetrees has been outstanding all season fro Glaws and he really deserves his chance. I think he will grab it with both hands and make the shirt his own. Farrell is back at halfback in place of the blundering Flood and England will do real damage if the ball gets in the backs. 

Up front – England have a huge depth of talent except at loss head prop. The loss of Corbiesero is a big one and the ponderous Joe Marler was found out badly in the autumn. Hartley on the bench is a surprise to many but Parling and Launchbury are a very strong powerhouse in the 2^nd Row and Robshaw, Wood and Morgan are the equal of any in the back row. England will start with a comfortable win over Scotland and will follow that up with narrow wins over France and Ireland, and a bigger win over Italy to set up a Grand Slam decider in Cardiff.  The Welsh will be desperate to save their season and could well sneak a narrow in in eth final game.

Predicted Finish: 1^st but no Grand Slam

FRANCE

France look very strong and will once again challenge England hard for the title. They will be anxious to avoid the Rome banana skin and start with a win. Italy will not be easy but France will have too much class and will be flattered with a comfortable victory. They follow this with Wales the first visitors to the Stade de France and a narrow win there will set them up for the championship decider at Twickenham on 23^rd Feb. France have a new coach in Saint-Andrew who has tasted success at every level as a player and coach. He has instilled a new discipline to their training and they unusually for the French; they seem to have good harmony amongst the players. Fulgence Ouedraogo, Louis Picamoles and Thierry Dusautoir are right now probably the best back row combination in the World. France have plenty of firepower in the backs with Florien Fritz and Wesley Fofana both capable of opening any defence and scoring tries which may be the deciding factor in this year’s title.  Huget is solid at the back and Freddie Michalak is back to his very best. He has a natural chemistry with Saint-Andre and he will be the key player for France in whether or not they can beat England and win the title. It will be a fantastic game against England and France will be bridesmaids again when the table is completed.

Predicted Finish: 2^nd

IRELAND

Ireland area again in re-building mode and will represent a difficult obstacle for every team to overcome. Brian O’Driscoll has stated this will be his Six Nations swansong but it is hard to see Ireland worrying either England or France for the title. There are some clear politics in their selections and the decision to leave out the outstanding Chris Henry for the Welsh match looks like a fatal error. The Ulsterman would be the first name on the team sheet of any other country but amazingly he only makes the bench. The pack is hugely experienced but will miss the leadership and experience of Paul O’Connell. His absence is something Ireland will have to come to terms with as he reaches the twilight of his career but he will be a big loss this championship. The selection of Craig Gilroy is well deserved and he and Simon Zebo will be able to able to stand up and test any defence. The absence of Tommy Bowe has given Gilroy his chance and with Rob Kearney solid and reliable at full back – Ireland have a very strong back three. Jonny Sexton leads at fly half with the “dad’s army” pairing of O’Driscoll and D’Arcy looks short sighted. Keith Earls can feel very aggrieved to be left out. Elsewhere Cian Healy and Mike Ross are heavily hyped and we will see just how strong they really are and whether or not they can challenge for the Lions.

Opening in Cardiff is a tough start and Ireland follow that up with England. So two defeats will start to see the panic button pressed and Ireland will come back to beat France in Dublin and will see off Italy and Scotland to finish with 3 wins.

Predicted Finish: 4^th

ITALY

Italy really has not made progress over the past 12 months. They remain the whipping boys of the Six Nations but will spoil the party for Wales (again) and will give Scotland a massive fright. Two years ago they did the unthinkable and beat France in Rome. History will not repeat itself and the Italians will not look forward to travelling to Twickenham. They will give Ireland a fright in the 1^st half and will also make Scotland tremble but will not triumph over the Bravehearts.  Jacques Brunel is a good coach and he has worked hard with the squad at his disposal. Parisse remains the stand out player and is a wise choice at Captain. Martin Castrogiovanni, Lorenzo Cittadini, Alberto De Marchi, and Andrea Lo Cicero are all strong forwards but again Italy lack critical talent in their backs. Kris Burton is experienced but highly erratic. In the end the Azzuri will not build beyond their 5th place from last season and a solitary win is all I see.

Predicted Finish: 6^th  – Wooden Spoon

SCOTLAND

Another team with new coach and captain. This year marks 30 years since Scotland last enjoyed a win over England at Twickenham. Scott Johnson has consistently failed when given eth top job and he is not going to find things any easier with Scotland. His backroom staff will gain as Dean Ryan is a very talented addition to his coaching staff and public expectation is at an all time low for Scotland. Kelly Brown is a tough fighter and will add steel as Captain. They have a difficult schedule with a defeat at HQ followed by perennial nemesis Italy in week two. Scotland will grind out a victory and will also give both Ireland and Wales close calls at Murrayfield before a final hammering in Paris.  Tim Visser is exciting and is a real wild card for the Lions. He is quick, elusive and strong defensively could be the mystery star from this year’s competition. Jackson and Laidlaw will be solid if not the most dynamic at halfback but the back division lacks flair and will be starved of possession. A difficult opening for Johnson as Scotland will once again only see one win.

Predicted finish: 5^th

WALES

Wales look like a country and a team in total disarray. They have completely failed to stop the player drain to France and the Welsh Regions have a torrid time in Euro competitions picking up only 2 wins. Their injury list is long and their heads are down after a very bad last 9 months. To many, me included; they were surprise winner of last years Six Nations and seemed to get worse as games went on. Poor results in Australia followed by a very poor autumn and again Welsh expectations are low. Rob Howley has been a disaster as coach and really gives little confidence that he knows what he is doing or picking the right side. Given the WRU is killing rugby in Wales by refusing to support the regions - it is difficult to blame everything on his shoulders. Wales still have world class talent and I am usually very pessimistic about Wales but actually I see some positive light and I believe Wales will have surrender their title but will have an okay championship.

Wales remain very strong in the three-quarter line albeit a little pedestrian and predictable. Halfpenny is the one Welsh player to enhance his reputation in 2012 and he is the first name ion the team sheet. Cuthbert and North remain dangerous and powerful finishers and Roberts and Davies although not showing great form are still powerful in both attack and defence. Biggar has the weight of a nation on his narrow shoulders and is a poor choice at Number 10. I don’t know what James Hook has to do to start at outside half? Biggar has been a spectacular failure for Wales and has never repeated his club form at international level. He also has never built a solid partnership with Mike Phillips. This is despite playing large period of rugby with him at the Ospreys. They seem almost like strangers who met in the bar when they put on the Welsh shirt.  Wales will also be struggling in the forwards. Gethin Jenkins is rusty through not playing regularly, Adam Jones not really match fit giving the Welsh Front row a raw feel. Given their crisis in eth 2^nd row, Wales turn to unlikely sources for inspiration. Andrew Coombs is an abysmal choice in 2^nd row and Olly Kohn from Quins a real surprising choice on the bench. Lets hope the Welsh selectors have checked his somewhat dubious claims to play for Wales. 

In the back row, Sam Warburton must have a collection of pictures of coach Rob Howley in compromising situations. How on earth is he starting ahead of Justin Tiperic? It simply beggars belief and just shows how desperate the Welsh have become. Warburton has been simply awful. He has shown no form and should not even be in the Welsh Squad. Elsewhere Andries Pretorius will give options for Wales off the bench and old-stager Ryan Jones can still do some damage although probably not for 80 minutes. Wales will narrowly beat Ireland before road trip defeats in Paris and Rome. They will rally against the wind and rain in Murrayfield and will sneak a narrow win to deprive England of a Grand Slam. Lets hope so anyway J.

Predicted Finish: 3^rd

This weekend’s predictions:

Wales 22 Ireland 20

Engalnd 45 Scotland 6

Italy 9 France 24