SIX NATIONS 2013 WEEK TWO – INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH…

As if the first week wasn’t dramatic enough, week two sees three fantastic match-ups, which will if anything; surpass last week’s twists and turns. This week’s blog comes from Paris where your ever optimistic author has travelled to see the match between the two big losers – Galles et France. Three of the six are looking for their first wins this week but will all face stiff opposition in some titanic tussles. Lets look at the runners and riders:

Scotland v Italy

Italy achieved the impossible again sending shockwaves through la Republique Francaise with another stunning upset in Rome. Parisse was outstanding and the Italian pack will strike fear into a Scotland side that showed moments of flair and grit but could not sustain a defence that could see off the rampaging English.

Italy will be looking back to 2007 and come to Murrayfield with high hopes of a second victory in this campaign. Luciano Orquera showed that Italy are not all forwards with a great display at 10. It is same again for coach Jacques Brunel with only the injured Sgarbi replaced by the dependable and experienced Canale in the centres. Expect more of the same from the Italian pack with veteran Prop Lo Cicero joining a narrow group of players reaching 100 caps.

I have very negative about Italy over the years and I still do not enjoy their forward dominated pedantic style of play; but credit where it is due, beating France was a real scalp and they now can feel confident of winning perhaps 4 matches this season with Ireland and Wales still to face the caldron in Rome.

For Scotland, last week’s trip to HQ brought a familiar result. They will not underestimate the Azzuri and will put up a stout defence in the Scottish capital.  The loss of Strokosch gives young Rob Harley a chance at flanker and he will prove a worthy replacement. I have been impressed with his form for Glasgow Warriors. Coach Johnson makes one other change with Ross Ford rightly re-instated at hooker. Twickenham saw some very disappointing play from halfbacks Laidlaw and Jackson and the Bravehearts will need quick ball to Lamont and Matt Scott to have any chance, as I fear they will be ground down up front. In a likely cold and wet Murrayfield, it will take stout hearts and fitness to prevail. Italy to repeat the past with a narrow win.

Scotland 16 Italy 20

France v Wales

Wales have an awful record at the Stadt de France and this team with low morale and even lower strength in depth will again find the going tough. Captain Warburton is injured again, which give old-stager Ryan Jones the opportunity to Captain his country for the 30^th time. Ryan Jones has been frankly treated abysmally by Welsh coaches and I am delighted that he still wants to put his body on the line for his nation and is not petulant regarding his selection. Congratulations Ryan - a real Welsh legend!

Can a caretaker coach get sacked? You’d hope so after the abysmal way Howley has handled Welsh preparation and selection. Yes Wales have a huge injury list but only a blind man could not see Dan Biggar was hopelessly out of his depth last week and the total loss of form of Gethin Jenkins. What do we get? Three changes – Hibbard in at hooker, Ryan Jones replacing the lightweight Shingler, and Tipuric finally given his chance to start a game in the red shirt.

You simply can’t try and win a match when you start playing in the 52^nd minute. Wales were caught asleep last week and only when changes were made did Wales show any real passion and ability. James Hook must be wondering just what he has to do to start. Ditto Paul James. The Welsh coaches frankly are guilty of more abysmal selections. Roberts and Jonathan Davies were very poor in Cardiff but survive because there simply is no alternative. The Welsh bench looks very weak for this game and it is very hard to be optimistic. I must apologize to Andrew Coombs who I very disparaging said was an “abysmal selection” last week. What do I know? He proved me wrong and was my Welsh Man of the Match. So humbled, Andrew – I must apologize and congratulate you for an outstanding debut.

So – what of France? What a directionless shambles they looked last week. Michalak can’t possibly play as badly again can he? Slow ball didn’t help but the lack of any clear game plan really hurt Les Bleus. There simply was no plan B. The return of Bastareaud will give them more power but he should be easy for Roberts and Davies to handle. A poor change in my view. France need flair and speed not bulk and power.

The absence of Pape gives Dusautoir the captain’s armband and he will need to really motivate France to raise their game. The battle will be won in the forwards and if France get an early score then I fear for Wales. If the Welsh can keep in touch by half time then nothing is impossible as they showed last week. French heads notoriously go down easily. My wife Johanna always talks about rugby being a game of two halves and Wales are certainly a second half team. The question is can they stay in touch long enough to get in their stride? I think not. Not going to be a great spectacle. France to win by two scores.

France 27 Wales 16

Ireland v England

After the Saturday matches, attention will turn to Dublin on Sunday as England are the visitors to the Aviva Stadium. England did just enough to win against Scotland but it was far from a convincing victory. The score line flattered the rose and they will need to up the ante considerably this week.  At the time of writing, the England team has not been released but I am expecting Twelvetrees to be dropped fro the returning Tuilagi. He will be bitterly disappointed after his outstanding debut last week but Lancaster holds no room for sentiment and will have no hesitation in releasing the beast to target Ireland’s ageing centres. England still have selection headaches at prop as Marler was again disappointing and Vuniploa may well start given the damage he caused to Scotland’s experienced front row last weekend. I would also like to see Danny Care starting and see quicker ball out to the backs. Hartley will almost certainly return and Haskell in many ways strengthens the English back row.

As for Ireland, it was the perfect start in Cardiff. They dominated first half possession and O’Brien and Best were outstanding. Sexton was metronomic in his kicking precision and they looked at one point like they would romp home by more than 50 points. But, and it’s a big but; they fell apart in the last 30 minutes against the Welsh and were hanging on for grim death at the end. England will certainly punish any errors and will exploit any openings Ireland may offer. Home advantage helps the Irish but England are made of stern stuff and this team will stand up and be counted. At the end of the day with two evenly matched packs – it will come down to the battle between the halfbacks. Farrell and (hopefully) Care for England against Sexton and Murray for Ireland. Both Farrell and Sexton have cool heads and deadly accuracy with the boot. The team that concedes the most penalties will lose for sure. The winners of this battle likely to be the Lions first choice halfbacks. England to put their Dublin hoodoo to bed and win in a tight contest.

Ireland 16 England 22