Six Nations 2016 Round 2 – Hoping for Better things…

Six Nations 2016 Round 2 – Hoping for Better things…

The 2016 Six Nations Round 1 is now just a distant memory and good riddance. What a disappointment it was! The three matches that took place at the weekend were all very disappointing for the neutral spectator with few tries and lots of errors. Despite the tight score lines, only one of the three matches showed any real passion. The France v Italy game was at least exciting to watch and provided the weekend’s only real pulse racing moments with France eventually winning an error filled encounter in Paris.

Those doubting Thomas’s from the Southern Hemisphere who couldn’t see a way that the Six Nations could compete with their Rugby Championship are looking like being proven right given that poor start in Round 1. But one swallow doesn’t make a summer and one round doesn’t make a tournament.

The second area of controversy this week has been the announcement that the World’s top 3 referees – Nigel Owens, Jerome Garces and Craig Joubert are only each taking one match in this years’ tournament.  Roman Poite, South African Jaco Peyper and Glen Jackson of New Zealand have all been granted two matches each.

There are two ways of viewing this. The negative view would be it’s a poor tournament so it doesn’t need the best referees. The positive counter would be this very farsighted from World Rugby to blood and develop the next tier of referees giving them vital experience for the future.

I think the positive view is the right one and World Rugby should be applauded for this move.

So what can we expect in Round 2?  Here is my quick review of the matches, which proceed this weekend.

France v Ireland

A tough encounter for the men of green who travel to Paris for an away game against France with only a six-day turnaround. Guy Noves new look French team did not deliver the promised attacking rugby in particular the defensive patterns looked very suspect. The team didn’t look together and the centre partnership looked like they met in the Pub 30 minutes before the kick off. Italy got on top of the pack at various times and only a late controversial penalty enabled France to achieve an undeserved victory over the Italians.

For Ireland, the 16-16 draw with Wales will no doubt be a disappointment especially after racing to a 13-0 lead in the first 25 minutes. Up until Joe Schmidt took charge of the Ireland team in 2014 the ‘France away’ fixture held little prospect of a victory for this generation of Irish rugby fans. After a famous win in 1972, Ireland had to wait until the Denis Hickie-inspired comeback of 2000 to taste success in Paris.

Ireland’s recent record against the French – they look for their fourth win in a row on Saturday – is their best since 1924-1928 when they managed six victories on the bounce. Freshest in the memory is the ferocious battle of attrition in Cardiff during the World Cup, a victory that came at the cost of Paul O’Connell’s rugby career and Johnny Sexton’s tournament.

Ireland ground out an 18-11 win in Dublin this time last year, and secured the 2014 title with a 22-20 win in Stade de France, Brian O’Driscoll’s last game in an Ireland shirt.

The short turnaround means that starters against Wales, Simon Zebo and Keith Earls, don’t make the cut. Both of who are nursing minor knocks.

In come Rob and Dave Kearney, while Sean O’Brien, outstanding in the RWC win over France, takes Tommy O’Donnell’s spot at flanker

Other than that it is essentially the same team, which ground out that dire defensive draw with Wales. 

For France, their performance last weekend can at best go down to early tournament rustiness and Guy Noves will be looking for a much stronger performance this weekend against Ireland. A defeat on Saturday and France’s Six Nations will be over with tough away trips to Cardiff and Edinburgh to follow.

For France, wing Teddy Thomas and centre Maxime Mermoz replace Hugo Bonneval, and Gael Fickou, who is absent for personal reasons.

In the forwards, props Eddy Ben Arous and Rabah Slimani drop to the bench as Noves goes for Jefferson Poirot and the giant Uini Atonio either side of captain Guilhem Guirado, with second row Paul Jedresiak and injured back row Louis Picamoles making way as Alexandre Flanquart and Yacouba Camara come in.

Although Ireland didn't lose a scrum against Wales, the set piece was under pressure and the “relay” of Slimani to the bench is perhaps the most surprising.

The bookies are struggling to separate the sides and a draw (yes, another one) wouldn't come as much of a surprise.  That would realistically kill Ireland's chances of another title and they will need to keep their starting XV on the field for as long as possible, if there are to have any chance of victory in Paris.

Jonny Sexton is again the critical man and I am also excited to see Sean O’Brien, Heaslip and CJ Stander come together as a back row trio for the first time at this level. Stander was the outstanding Irish player against Wales and his 23 carries last weekend takes him to hallowed ground. Only five players have ever carried more in a Six Nations match.

I think France will bounce back from last weekend. The winger Virimi Vakatawa had an excellent game against Italy and I suspect he will cause Ireland some problems. I am surprised that Noves has retained Sebastien Bezy at scrum half. He had an awful game last weekend and if Parra gets fit he must be in line for a recall against Wales.

The French bench is very strong and their pack could cause Ireland some problems especially in the latter stages. Again hard to call but I think France will squeak home.

France 19 Ireland 16

Wales v Scotland

Scotland were desperately disappointing against England and it will be with some trepidation that they travel to Cardiff to face an underachieving Wales team.

For Wales, they will want to push aside the memories of the Dublin disappointment and kick on to put Scotland to the sword in Cardiff.

Coach Warren Gatland names an unchanged team for the Scots with only one change on the bench with Gareth Anscombe shaking off the tight hamstring which caused his late withdrawal against Ireland to replace Alex Cuthbert.

I have to say my eyebrows were raised with news that Dan Biggar has miraculously shaken off the ankle injury, which curtailed his match against Ireland. I have to admit he looked a lot worse when he came off in Dublin and I am not sure I would have risked him for this encounter.

Wales were frankly awful and asleep for the opening 25 minutes in Dublin and there must also be concerns that they failed to break through the Irish defence with any clean breaks against five for the men in green. The promise of new attacking techniques was not on display and it was an exhibition of textbook Warrenball – pure and simple.

Many of the Welsh team are still not at full fitness and it showed. Jonathan Davies had a quiet game. Liam Williams looked slightly tired towards the end and Captain Sam Warburton is lucky to keep his place and he knows he must lead his team to a much-improved performance this weekend.

The one area Wales did show some real progress was at the scrums. Young Loose head prop Rob Evans had a strong showing and Samson Lee looks like he is returning to his best form. Wales were rock solid and had Ireland scrummage under pressure leading to Faletau’s well-taken try.

Jamie Roberts and Taulupe Faletau were the stand out men for Wales with strong defensive and attacking showings.

As for Scotland they have to be bitterly disappointed the way they folded to English pressure at Murrayfield. Greig Laidlaw had an uncharacteristically poor game and Finn Russell looked like he had the weight of the world on his shoulders.

Eight straight losses now in the Six Nations and eight losses in a row to Wales too. It’s hard to see what coach Vern Cotter can do to bring a change in fortunes?

Just a solitary change in the Scottish team for this weekend’s match with Duncan Taylor, the admirable Saracen, in for the injured Matt Scott in the midfield. The forward pack is unchanged, with Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford and WP Nel in the front row who will be looking to cause Wales some disruption in the scrums and at the breakdown.

The Scottish team has shown some good progress and it wasn’t all doom and gloom last weekend more an opportunity missed. Tommy Seymour made far too many errors and I felt Cotter should have brought Blair Cowan on far earlier in the match.

Stuart Hogg remains a threat from full back and the Scottish pack are no mugs. John Barclay is very familiar with all the Welsh players and they know to expect a wounded dragon to come out firing on all cylinders in Cardiff.

Scotland are a better side now than they have been for a number of years but that isn’t saying much. They have a decent scrum and a reliable lineout. They have an industrious back row and they have a backline full of nice footballers. But what they lack is something exceptional.

Any quality side should have somebody or something that poses a threat. Whether it’s a powerful scrum, a driving maul, an aerial game or simply an individual that is so potent that it influences the outcome of international matches. It might not do it every time but when this aspect of the game is working, the team wins.

Scotland have no weapons, and international rugby is a tough place to be if you’ve got no weapons

Wales will be desperate to win and win well against a Scotland side that always seems to raise its game in Cardiff. I would like to see a more expansive Welsh attack to bring Faletau more into the action and less reliant on an attritional defensive one-dimensional aspect. The return of Dan Biggar is a critical factor and I fear Scotland could have something of a hiding but Wales must be wary of interceptions with their flat passing game.

Scotland will compete hard but I don’t see a breakthrough. With inclement weather likely in Cardiff, both teams have agreed to have the roof closed in the hope of a better running game. Wales by at least two scores.

Wales 23 Scotland 9

Italy v England

Well what do I know? Not a lot based on way I completed dismissed Italy’s chances against France. Quite simply the Italians played way above their expected capabilities with Sergio Parisse once again showing why is rated as the world’s best No. 8.

Quote honestly he was absolutely everywhere against France. Leading from the front and inspiring the many new faces in the Italian. Team.

Jacques Brunel used his substitutions and bench very intelligently and it was a very encouraging start for a written off Italy.

As I write this review, neither England or Italy have announced their team line-ups so in the interests of time, I have to use my crystal ball and look at any potential lineup changes.

Jacques Brunel and Italy will be forced to make at least one change to his Italy team to take on England, with fullback David Odiete having been ruled out through injury.

Luke McLean seems the obvious choice for that role, however Brunel has placed his faith in youth already this campaign. I think we will go with experience and McLean will be I believe the only change. After going down narrowly in Paris, Brunel will surely be tempted to stick with the players who impressed at the Stade de France.

Debutants Andrea Lovotti and Ornel Gega shone in the front row and I believe there will not be any changes at all in the pack.

In the backline Carlo Canna will look to build on a strong performance against Les Bleus, and looks to have shaken off the knock he picked up at the end of the game.

For England, there are two additions to the squad that won comfortably at Murrayfield.  For the trip to Rome, Elliot Daly and open side flanker Matt Kvesic are out and in comes another young talent - but this time it's No.8 Josh Beaumont - leading some to anticipate a 6-2 split between forwards and backs this weekend on the bench.

Maro Itoje has once again been included in a 25-strong England squad for Sunday's RBS 6 Nations clash with Italy in Rome. Itoje has been in outstanding form for Saracens this season and could be in line for a first cap in round two of the Championship at the expense of Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes or George Kruis. Kruis was outstanding against Scotland so I think Lawes could be the unlucky here and may drop from the bench.

Coach Eddie Jones has hinted that there will be changes to his pack due to the conditions expected at the Stadio Olimpico.

Jack Clifford made his debut off the bench in Edinburgh and I believe will be promoted, but selecting the fast Harlequins back row Jones would mean having to drop either James Haskell or Chris Robshaw - both of whom performed well against the Scots. Clifford would certainly bring some added speed to the back row

So while many are hoping the likes of Itoje and Beaumont are handed their debuts, the starting XV looks set to stay largely the same. In the backline Ben Youngs' bright cameo last weekend could see him leapfrog Danny Care at No.9 but elsewhere the three-quarters look set to stay largely unchanged.

Should Jones pack his bench with forwards and give Itoje and Beaumont a chance, then Ollie Devoto's versatility could prove vital alongside a scrum-half in reserve.

England did a workmanlike performance against Scotland. Owen Farrell had a mediocre day with the boot and George Ford really is looking off the pace. England could really do with a proper inside centre but I don’t see Jones tinkering too much with the winning formula.

The weather in Rome is unpredictable and may not be the warmer drier weather England are hoping for. Italy has never beaten England – their only remaining Six Nations scalp – and despite the heroics in Paris, I don’t see England letting this one slip. A comfortable win for England before the two tough games at Twickenham will leave them favourites for the title.

Italy 9 England 27

Six Nations 2016 – Round 1 – Y’all Ready For this?

Six Nations 2016 – Round 1 – Y’all Ready For this?

After last week’s preview, the tournament gets real this weekend. And how real does it get? Quite frankly – we have three titanic battles to open the tournament and as I pack for the weekend in Dublin, I am looking forward to a weekend rugby festival.

A lot of comments in the press and on TV this week have compared the tries scored in the Southern Hemisphere Rugby Championship with the penalty kick dominated Six Nations. I think they are missing the point and getting a little carried away. Quite honestly, New Zealand are a class apart right now and the Rugby Championship with long distances involved doesn’t have the fervor and passion of the Six Nations where National pride and a patriotic crowd increases the pressure immensely for players to win at all cost.

They also seem to forget that the Northern Hemisphere teams are all playing Southern Hemisphere style rugby. I remember well the days when Wales would try and run from anywhere. The heartache of the 2007 World Cup defeat to Fiji still sits with me as a desperate day in Welsh rugby history. Watch the game as a neutral and it was a fantastic spectacle where both teams threw caution to the wind and went for it. But would I swap that for the defence dominated match-winning Wales of today? Not in a million years.

Winning is not everything – its the only thing!

FRANCE v ITALY

The opening match sees the fragile inexperienced Italy travel to Paris to meet Guy Noves' new look France.  Both teams will be anxious to avoid a first week defeat and for Noves – winning is not the only tolerable outcome – he has also to win well to satisfy the discontented Bleus supporters.

It’s a bold and exciting first team selection from Noves containing four uncapped players in the starting XV with a grand total of seven players potentially making their first outing for Les Bleus on Saturday as Noves looks to start the new French era with a bang and his promised attacking rugby.

The most surprising is the call up of France Sevens stalwart Virimi Vakatawa who has been selected on the wing. Vakatawa, who has not played any 15-man rugby since 2013, will form a new look back three alongside the reliable Maxime Medard and Hugo Bonneval.

Sebastien Bezy also makes his debut at scrum half and will pair up with number 10 Jules Plisson in the absence of the injured Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc who was deemed not fit enough when Noves assembled his squad last month.

I am also pleased to see  Stade Français Centre Jonathan Danty given his chance to impress and he is paired with Gael Fickou in an exciting combination of flair in the centres. Lock Paul Jedrasiak is the other uncapped player.

Up front Eddy Ben Arous and Rabah Slimani are the props either side of new captain Guilhem Guirado in a powerful looking front row.

Jedrasiak is paired with the experienced Yoann Maestri in the second row with Damien Chouly, Wenceslas Lauret and the peerless Louis Picamoles in the back row.

On the replacements bench Camille Chat, Jefferson Poirot are in line for their debuts in the front row if brought on while another debutant Yacouba Camara is the back-row cover.

Maxime Machenaud, Jean-Marc Doussain and Maxime Mermoz provide the back-line cover on the bench while the other forward replacements are Alexandre Flanquart and the giant Uini Atonio respectively.

This is a clear statement of intent and I expect France to respond and dominate against their vastly inexperienced competitors. Italy however has nothing to lose and one thing we have all learned is young untried teams have a habit of upping their game as there is no fear of defeat.

Jacques Brunel mirrors Guy Noves in naming 4 new caps in his starting XV for the match in Paris.  David Odiete from Italian league side Marchiol Mogliano will start at fullback and is a real surprise selection in place of the experienced and safe Luke McLean. Mattia Bellini from Padova is another Italian league addition on left wing, whilst fellow debutants Andrea Lovotti (Zebre) and Ornel Gega (Treviso) are in Italy's front row.

Prop Matteo Zanusso and No.8 Dries van Schalkwyk could make also make their international debuts from the bench.

Leonardo Sarto will join the new faces in the back three, while Gonzalo Garcia and Michele Campagnaro are the new centre partnership. Carlo Canna has been handed the number ten jersey and will combine with scrum-half Edoardo Gori just behind an experienced-looking back row of evergreen and critical captain Sergio Parisse and flankers Alessandro Zanni and Francesco Minto.

Wasps tighthead Lorenzo Cittadini joins hooker Gega and loosehead prop Lovotti in the front row, ahead of locks Marco Fuser and George Fabio Biagi.

Expect lots of fireworks in the forwards and some aggressive attacking rugby form France. I really can’t see beyond Les Blues and a home win in Paris.

France 27 Italy 12

SCOTLAND V ENGLAND

 The Calcutta Cup once again is the opening fixture for the ‘Auld Enemies’ and Scotland will be looking for their first win at Murrayfield against the Rose since 2008 in this 134gth meeting between the teams.

Coach Vern Cotter has gone for a solid experienced side for the opener. Scarlets flanker John Barclay has been reborn down in West Wales and is a welcome returnee after being left out of last year's World Cup squad and has been absent for the past three Six Nations campaigns.

He will win his 46th cap alongside John Hardie and Dave Denton in the new look Scottish back row at Murrayfield.

Glasgow centre Mark Bennett will also be in the starting line-up, having recovered from a shoulder injury and will partner Edinburgh's Matt Scott, with Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour on the wings and Stuart Hogg continuing at Full Back.

Greig Laidlaw will captain the side with Finn Russell at Outside half – both of whom are able to kick well and will cause considerable pause for thought in an England team, which will need to avoid ill discipline at the break down.

In the pack, the Gray brothers continue in the boiler room with Al Dickinson forming a solid front row with Ross Ford and WP Nell.

The Weather forecast for Murrayfield is for a cold and cloudy day but no rain, which should favour England marginally, but after rain on Thursday and Friday, the pitch will be good to soft and expect a forward dominated battle.

As for England, new Coach Eddie Jones has also been bold and names a formidable side.  Mike Brown has a lot to prove after a disappointing World Cup and with form an exciting back three with bath flyer Anthony Watson and the Exeter express Jack Nowell. Jonathan Joseph returns at Centre to partner Owen Farrell with George Ford at Outside half and I am delighted to see then talented Danny care recalled at scrum half.

In the pack – it’s a dangerous looking front row with Joe Marler, new captain Dylan "Tarzan" Hartley and Dan Cole. Joe Launchbury and George Kruis partner up in the boiler room and Chris Robshaw, Billy Vunipola, and James Haskell in a solid but uninspiring back row.

Three new caps on the bench with Paul Hill and jack Clifford providing forward cover and the exciting Ollie Devoto will also see some game time. The powerful looking bench is made up with Mako Vunipola, Courtney Lawes and Jamie George making up the forwards with Ben Youngs and Alex Goode the other backs.

On paper, England has the strength and the power to win and win comfortably. But matches are not won on paper and I feel if Scotland is ever to make a breakthrough it has to come this season. The Scots will be confident after their much improved World Cup performance and will want to work Irish referee John Lacey to win as many penalties as possible.

A tough game to call.  Both teams have a lot to offer and it should be a tight and exciting encounter. My head says England will be too streetwise and have too much power and experience but my heart says Scotland want this one more. A tight result and I will go with my heart. Scotland win.

Scotland 19 England 16

IRELAND v WALES

And so to the final match and Sunday afternoon in Dublin will see Wales travel to face the Irish at the Aviva Stadium. Wales will want to avoid the catastrophe of their last Six nations match in Dublin when they were out thought and totally out played by Ireland and were asleep at the wheel costing them a Six nations title.

Warren Gatland has gone with form and experience and taken no real risks with a brutal looking team line up. New Zealand born Gareth Anscombe continues at full back in the continued absence of the talismanic Leigh Halfpenny and the lack of match fitness of Liam Williams. Anscombe was solid against both Australia and South Africa in the World Cup but he is playing out of position albeit he has had considerable game time at full back in the Top 15 in his native country. Ireland may see him as a weak link and I expect lots of high balls and Garryowen’s to be heading his way. That could be a mistake as Anscombe is a clever player and can run hard and aggressively as well as kick out of defence. He adds the potential of a 2nd Five Eight to Wales and if gets into the attack, his aggressive flat passing game could cause Ireland some difficult times.

The back three is made up with George North and Tom James who is rightly recalled as the form winger in Wales.  James hasn’t started for Wales since 2010 but is a strong defender and attacker who comes in the game looking for work and offers considerably more than the fading Alex Cuthbert.

In the centres, Wales will be delighted to welcome back Jonathan Davies from his lengthy injury spell on the sidelines, and he will again form a partnership with the granite strewn Jamie Roberts.

Dan Biggar and Gareth Davies continue their World Cup partnership at half backs and if Wales can get their big back line moving it will very difficult to defend against. Biggar in particular looked world class in the World Cup and his growing maturity is adding a new stability and dimension to the Welsh attack.

In the pack, the selection of referee Jerome Garces has led Gatland to forsake Gethin Jenkins and gives Scarlets pair Rob Evans and Samson Lee the prop positions either side of the robust Scott Baldwin. Evans is a player for the future and the next world cup but had a fairly torrid time against Martin Castrogiovanni in Rome last season and Ireland will clearly target him in the scrums.

Elsewhere it’s a familiar pack with the mercurial Alun Wyn Jones and Luke Charters in the second row and with Dan Lydiard’s fitness uncertain, Gatland has gone for two open side flankers with Justin Tipuric partnering Captain Sam Warburton either side of the Taulupe Faletau.

On the bench – Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens and Tomos Francis are the front row replacements with Bradley Davies and the recovering Dan Lydiate the other forwards. , Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, and Alex Cuthbert cover the back line.

For Ireland, the injury-hit squad has been sweating on the fitness of Rob Kearney and Sean O’Brien. As I go to press, the Irish team has not been announced so any assessment here is based on my best judgment of what team will take the field.

The Irish pack will somewhat of a new look as they face up to a competition without a number of key names though, including a front five missing the injured Cian Healy, Mike Ross, Iain Henderson and the retired Paul O'Connell while the back row will also be without long-term injury victim Peter O'Mahony.

Jack McGrath is the new rock of the Irish pack and will form a front row with new captain Rory Best and I believe Schmidt will go with Connacht’s Nathan White at tight head. I expect Mike McCarthy to be partnering either Devin Toner or Donnacha Ryan in the second-row with some tough choices in the Irish back row. Lots of rumours that Josh Van der Flier and CJ Stander will get the call up for this game where Ireland know they have to stand up physically to Wales.

Behind the scrum, Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray will combine again and I expect Joe Schmidt to pick Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey to partner Jerrod Payne at centre with Andrew Trimble being recalled on the wing.

Referee Jerome Garces will play a critical role in this match. Garces can be very pedantic at times but he is very consistent and unbiased. If the penalty count starts to mount up for any side then it could be a long road back for the team on the receiving end with both Dan Biggar and Jonny Sexton showing metronomic accuracy with the boot on ball.

The kicking game – bother aerial and positional - will be key and Sexton probably has the edge, as he knows every inch of the Aviva Stadium turf.

I expect this game to be a classic and another game hard to call. Wales will start, as favourites but Ireland are notoriously hard to beat at home and will be well disciplined and coached to keep cool heads under pressure.

The game will be won or lost in the forwards and here Wales have a crucial edge. The experience should pay dividends and I expect a very tight battle, which given Six nations history means it probably won’t be.  Being Welsh, I have to go with a Welsh victory but it will be close and nailbitey.

Ireland 19 Wales 23

SIX NATIONS PREVIEW 2016 – WILL THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FIGHT BACK?

As we approach the one-week to go countdown, the 2016 Six Nations tournament is poised to be a significant one.  Just a few months ago, we had the massive disappointment of not one Northern Hemisphere team making the semi-finals of the World Cup. This was a shattering blow to European rugby and it will be critical that this years tournament shows a rise in standards as well as being as highly competitive as usual.

It’s going to a very interesting competition. We have new coaches at the helm of France and England. The retirements of many Six Nations stalwarts have weakened many teams and left them with significant rebuilding for the future and all teams with a point to prove. Will the Northern Hemisphere fight back? The rise of Argentina and Japan has not gone unnoticed and with a Lions tour just 18 months away, the tournament gives many younger players the opportunity to grow an impress on the international stage.

As usual, I have spent a long time this winter watching and analysing players and coaching performances. The European Champions Cup has shown that the power (and money) is with the French and English clubs and fact that for the first time no team form the Pro 12 has made the quarter finals is almost as significant for Wales, Ireland, Scotland, and Italy as their exits from the World Cup from both the summer tours and autumn internationals. Its clear the Celtic fringe needs to show some form in this competition or the talent drain to the call of English schilling and French franc will further depress rugby competitions and talent development for the future.

Let’s review the teams and their likely prospects in the Tournament ahead:

IRELAND

A dreadful World Cup on the back of a double title winning Six Nations has taken the shine and lustre off Joe Schmidt’s record and slowed (at least temporarily) his rise up the list of candidates for the Future All Blacks coaching job.  There is talk of a crisis in Irish Rugby with the provincial teams struggling and players being coaxed away from the emerald isle. Confidence remains low after being run rugged by a talented Argentina team on a sobering Sunday afternoon at the Millennium Stadium.

So what went wrong?

The strength in depth was tested and the newcomers were found wanting. Gone is captain Paul O'Connell to the happy place that is international retirement and the land of hilk and money in the Top 14. He is a massive loss to Ireland and it will be interesting to see who emerge as the real leaders are in the Irish team. Rory Best, the Ulster hooker has one of the biggest boots to fill in World rugby having taken over the Irish captaincy but he is Ireland’s most experienced player and will win his 90th cap when he leads his nation out against Wales in Dublin on February 7.

Recent club form has been poor in both the Pro 12 and the European Cup and it is a shock to the Irish system that no team has made it out of the group stages for the first time.  There is more woe with the news that Marty Moore and Keith Earls are heading to England next season at Wasps and Saracens, whilst Ian Madigan is heading to Bordeaux-Begles and Limerick flyer Simon Zebo also being linked with a move to France.

Injuries are once again taking their toll and the loss of Peter O’Mahony, Marty Moore, Mike Ross, Cian Healy, and probably most disappointedly their best young forward Iain Henderson has severely weakened the Irish pack strength at least for the first few games. Their prime predator in the backs, Tommy Bowe, will also be absent for the whole campaign, with first-choice centres Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne having only just returned from lengthy lay-offs.

And of course there’s concern and doubt over key playmaker Johnny Sexton, with the fly-half - who has had such concussive issues in the past - having taken another blow to the head at the weekend. Ian Madigan is nowhere near the talent of Sexton and he lacks the key spark in game management. If Sexton is absent for any games, then I fear Ireland could have some real difficulties.

In my opinion, the loss of natural born leader Peter O'Mahony is probably the biggest blow of all.

But despite all this, Joe Schmidt is no mug and Ireland will still have a competitive, well coached team and passionate support which will make them remain formidable opponents for any team and hard to beat at home.

Ulster's powerhouse centre Stuart McCloskey and Gerry Rigrose are powerful additions to the Irish squad and look real future superstars. Kearney remains a reliable full back and Trimble and Earls are powerful finishers so Ireland will still have the ability to test any team and give them an inch and you could easily let a game slip away.

The fixture list has also not been kind to them. Ireland starts with a tough home game against Wales followed by a tricky away trip to Paris after a six-day turnaround. Then more toil with England away before final home fixtures against Italy and Scotland.

The Wales game is probably the most significant. Lose than and I can see away losses in both France and England before two narrow home victories. Beat Wales and then France looks winnable. Twickenham will be too hard so at best 4 wins and at worst 2 wins. I think Wales will triumph in Dublin – so no three peat as champions.  

Final Position: 5th

ENGLAND

RWC15 - What can you say? A home World Cup, the Red Rose with a tough qualifying group but the easiest passage to the final and a final against the All Blacks with whom England have an impressive record. A repeat of 2003 with a World Cup win or at worse 2007 with a second place finish.

Err no! Unfortunately the script didn’t quite follow through that way.

England were lamentable in the World Cup and look poorly coached, lacking fitness, with poor selections and game planning. A dreadful decision against Wales cost them a draw and likely progression whilst they totally outclassed against Australia and an early exit and finance pain for the RFU. Stuart Lancaster paid the price for his strange selections with his job. The obsession with playing Sam Burgess, at Centre, didn’t work, the dropping George Ford and odd substitutions just added to the confusion. . You wouldn’t believe it could happen to England until it did. The biggest challenge facing him was he didn’t seem to know his best team.

So on to a new era and Australia coaching legend Eddie Jones arrives fresh from Japan via South Africa and Yo Sushi.  An interesting training squad with several major omissions, a new captain and a bold selection for the away trip to Edinburgh with three new caps in the starting squad.

I think Jones will have a good tournament. Despite the dreadful World Cup – England have a formidable pack and lots of running talent in the backs. Many of his star players are coming right back into form and Dylan Hartley is a formidable captain despite his past record of misdemeanours. Hartley has been subject to quite dreadful coverage in the press. I believe he could be Eddie Jones trump card and no team will relish facing a wounded England with captain Hartley at the helm. .

Saracens outside-half Owen Farrell has been outstanding since the World Cup in his club’s remarkable run of victories and should be in the England starting side to face Scotland, whether it be it at outside-half or inside-centre.

The new squad additions are very exciting. Josh Beaumont, son of former captain Bill, was one of seven uncapped players included in Eddie Jones's first England squad. Sale's Beaumont is a powerful number eight in the mould of his father, one of England's most iconic players who led them to the grand slam in 1980 and captained the British and Irish Lions the same year.

Flanker Jack Clifford, who has taken over as openside flanker at Harlequins from England's World Cup captain Chris Robshaw, is also included, as is Robshaw, who is now playing on the blindside.

Wasps exciting centre Elliot Daly is included and has a chance to press for a team slot in the absence of injured Henry Slade, while Sam Hill, and Maro Itoje are also included with Northampton Prop Paul Hill, and Bath back Ollie Devoto look likely to join Clifford and make their debuts in England's Six Nations opener next weekend hoping for a first cap.

Of the discarded players – you have to feel for Luther Burrell. He has been treated quite abysmally by England.  The one other remaining player not to make the initial squad and raise eyebrows with Rugby Raconteur was Danny Cipriani. I watched Cipriani in several games this season and he is an amazing talent with great vision and game control. I think all the other coaches breathed a sigh of relief at his exclusion as make no mistake he is a game changer.

England has the strength in depth to be competitive and win matches with a modest change to their playing style.  The question is can they start with a win in Edinburgh? Murrayfield has been a graveyard for many England hopes and Scotland’s improved performances at the World Cup will give Jones new look team a major challenge of an opener.

England follow up the Scotland trip with another away trip and easy victory in Rome followed by Ireland and Wales at home before finishing in Paris. I think England will grow with maturity and will be close to being title winners. 

Final Position: 2^nd  

WALES

Wales can look back at the World Cup with some pride and it was phenomenal to watch a team with a back division made up of two scrum halves, two outside halves, a winger playing centre go on to close out a victory at the hallowed turf of Hq. But ultimately the final outcome was a disappointment and I can’t help but feel a sense of underachievement.  The horrendous injury crisis that impacted the Dragons finally was too much and after a Rourke's Drift win over England, they failed to take their chances against a 13 man Australia team and 2 minutes of madness cost them victory over South Africa.  Report card says – great effort but could do better.

Warren Gatland and his coaching team have fresh contracts and will look to build onwards with a Six Nations title in 2016. They have the most experienced squad in terms of caps and also Six Nations games and after blooding many new players over the past few seasons only one new cap – Scarlets scrum half Aled Davies is named in the training squad.

Injuries have still robbed Wales of the talismanic Leigh Halfpenny whilst Scott Williams, Dan Lydiard and Rhys Webb are also still missing whilst Captain Sam Warburton, Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams, Hallam Amos and Gareth Anscombe are just returning and all short of match fitness.

Dan Biggar was arguably the best Northern Hemisphere player in the World Cup and his form has continued at club level. I am pleased to see Gatland recall Cardiff Blues pair Tom James and Josh Turnbull.

Tom James has been on fire at the Blues and it is really good to see him return to the squad. The Rhymney flyer has always had a tempestuous relationship with Gatland and has publically commented when dropped from squads or been left on the bench. Several seasons away at Exeter under the watchful eye of master coach Rob Baxter have transformed his appetite for the game and I fully expect him to start against Ireland.

Josh Turnbull has also impressed at club level and with Lydiard out for the start of the competition, he remains a useful option off the bench being able to play at Flanker or No.8.

Justin Tipuric should and will likely partner Warburton and Faletau in the Welsh back row and I think Gareth Anscombe and Liam Williams will fight it out at Full Back. Anscombe has looked very sharp in his two games for the Blues and Liam Williams is real talent but I’m not sure I would risk his fitness in the first match.

In the forwards, Gethin Jenkins looks to be probably playing in his last Six Nations and will want to go out on a high. Samson Lee is back fit with young Tomos Francis continuing as his understudy.  A steady powerhouse with the wonderful Alun Wyn-Jones and either Luke Charteris or Bradley Davies will give the welsh pack a solid shape.

Wales look stable and strong. Their defence and fitness is unrivalled in World rugby but critics of “Warrenball” rightly point out that it can be predictable and easy to defend against in attack. Gatland has revealed that he has some new tactics and attack formations and the key to Wales success will be scoring tries. Biggar will kick the goals and keep the scoreboard ticking over.

Wales look like tournament favourites and the key to their success will be winning the first game in Dublin. They follow with the test of a much improved Scotland and France at home before England away and Italy at home to finish. The schedule is reasonable and Wales tend to improve through the tournament. Twickenham will hold no fears but probably will be the tournament decider. Win there and another grand slam beckons, lose and the title still looks within their grasp. Too good to fail? We shall see but my crystal ball tells me Sam Warburton will picking up that trophy at the end of competition.

Final Position: 1^st - CHAMPIONS

SCOTLAND

Scotland are the one team who can look back at World cup with some form of satisfaction at their progress in the competition. Its been a long journey from the Wooden Spoon in last season's Six Nations but were two minutes away from beating Australia in their World Cup quarter-final and are in a positive frame of mind. The cruelty of that narrow loss to Australia robbed them of a deserved semi final place.

Look beyond that game and Scotland were a lot less convincing in the group games but still showed steady progress and development from the horror show of last year’s tournament. However, given the talent pool they draw from is pretty limited coach Vern Cotter has done a very good job of instilling a sense of confidence that they can compete with anyone and he is starting to build a winning mentality with his squad.

The key player in my eye is young Finn Russell. Scotland coach Vern Cotter can help to have been impressed with his performance during Glasgow’s recent 22-5 victory over Racing 92 He will take the satisfaction that his outside-half general Russell was back to something like his old self.

He scored 11 points in that match with the boot with three penalties and a conversion of Stuart Hogg’s try and he was clearly bossing play and generally playing with his customary composure that hasn’t always been evident this season

Stuart Hogg has also been in great form and the bold new Scottish squad features two uncapped players with young props Zander Fagerson and Rory Sutherland. Fagerson has been quite astonishing for a 20 year old prop and looks like a future rock for the Scottish scrum.  

The Gray brothers remain likely to pair up in the 2^nd row whilst back row options are boosted with the form of Bath's Dave Denton and there is good competition with Glasgow's Chris Fusaro and Josh Strauss, Blair Cowan and the return to the squad of the excellent John Barclay.

Injuries are like many teams; weakening the Scottish firepower in the backs with Centre Alex Dunbar ruled out of the opening two games of the Six Nations.

Dunbar has suffered a posterior thigh strain during Glasgow's European Champions Cup win over Racing 92 and will be out "for the coming weeks". This is a big blow as Dunbar was a likely starter against England if fit. It is the latest setback to affect his Test career, after rupturing knee ligaments in training before last year's Calcutta Cup match and missing the World Cup last autumn as a result.

His Glasgow team-mate Mark Bennett is another injury concern, with Scotland coach Vern Cotter rating the outside centre's chances as no better than 50-50 as he recovers from a shoulder problem.

With Dunbar ruled out, Edinburgh's Matt Scott is likely to start at inside centre in the Calcutta Cup with Saracens' Duncan Taylor in contention to join him in midfield.

Scotland has nothing to lose and I believe they will rise to the challenge this season. Murrayfield can still instil fear into any England team and this year, I think Scotland will triumph against the ‘Auld Enemy”.

A win in that first match will set Scotland up for the tricky away visit to Cardiff. Scotland have run Wales very close in many games in Cardiff and this game remains a potential banana skin for Gatland. Then the nightmare journey to Rome against their nemesis Italy followed by France at home and finishing with Ireland away in Dublin. A good season to build on – three wins. 

Final Position: 4^th  

FRANCE

Experienced Toulouse coach Guy Noves is the latest to take over the poisoned chalice of rebuilding French rugby. France have been deeply disappointing in the past two Six nations and their World Cup was little better with rumours of squad discontent off the field and little to inspire on it.

Noves has already laid out his stall with a promise of new attacking rugby, the omission of Mathieu Bastareaud, and an interesting 31 man training squad. I have never been a fan of the battering ram approach and I am delighted to see Bastareaud out as to me he is the antithesis of everything that made French rugby great.

Despite several high profile retirements – most notably Captain Thierry Dusautoir and  and hooker Dimitri Szarzewski; Noves will be looking to build on a solid forward pack and he the talent in the backs to build a creative force for the future.

I like the look of Jonathan Danty - a no-nonsense centre who has already played more than 50 times for Stade Francais and impressed against Leicester as he helped set up one of the tries.  I have also been impressed with the call up of Marvin O'Connor.  The Montpellier flyer replaces club colleague Benjamin Fall, who was injured playing in the European Challenge Cup against Harlequins last Friday.

O'Connor, capped at Under-20 level, could link up with former France Sevens team-mate Virimi Vakatawa, who was also included by new Les Bleus coach Guy Noves in his original squad.

Scott Spedding impressed me last year at full back and Wesley Fofana always is an attacking threat that hopefully will see anew lease of life with the new coaching team.

Jean-Marc Doussain and Jules Plisson are the two outside halves in the squad as Francois Trinh-Duc is currently injured but hopeful of joining the squad later in the competition. Maxime Machenaud and Morgan Parra are the two scrum-halves.

Machenaud has been a driving force behind the Parisians’ European campaign and he will battle it out with Morgan Parra who had a miserable weekend after taking a late quick tap penalty for Clermont when only a kick was needed against Bordeaux-Begles for them to secure quarter-final qualification. It has been announced that Parra will miss the season opener against Italy and uncapped Bordeaux-Begles scrum-half Baptiste Serin has joined the squad as cover.

 In the pack, the giant Uini Atonio and Eddy Ben Arous will form a solid front row. There is a powerful looking pack with a mix of old and new faces but the unanswered question will be what is the fitness of the team? French clubs and coaches do not have the obsession with fitness that for example, Welsh caches Gatland and Edwards have; and many French teams have seemed to tire and run out of steam in the latter stages of matches.

I am optimistic for the new look France and they will open with a comfortable win in Paris over the untried Italian team. They follow with another home game against Ireland that will be the first real test of the new squad’s ability to compete. I think they will have two wins before difficult away trips to Wales and Scotland before finishing with England.in Paris. Still 3 wins at least and maybe more.

 Final Position: 3^rd  

ITALY

Italy had a good Six Nations in 2015 with their first ever away victory. A tough World Cup draw teamed with Ireland and France was always going to be challenging and other than the game against Ireland, I They were poor in the World Cup and I don’t foresee a positive turnaround in fortunes for them as Coach Jacques Brunel’s swansong

Its hard to be optimistic about Italian prospects this tournament. You just cannot be inspired seeing the lumbering and immobile Kelly Haimona recalled to Italy's injury-hit squad that includes a vast 10 uncapped additions. 

The legendary long-serving number eight Sergio Parisse continues as captain, but Italy are missing 10 frontline stars ahead of their Six Nations opener against France in Paris on 6 February. 

Zebre team-mates Carlo Canna and the uncapped Edoardo Padovani will contest the fly-half berth, with Haimona likely to be deployed in the centres. Italy will also be boosted by the presence of fit-again trio of lock George Biagi and centre Giulio Bisegni. New fly-half Padovani heads a lengthy cast list of rookie additions for Italy, with front-rowers Andrea Lovotti, Matteo Zanusso and Ornel Gega joined by back-row forwards Jacopo Sarto, Abraham Steyn and Andries van Schalkwyk. Three-quarters Mattia Bellini, Tommaso Castello and David Odiete complete Italy's untested recruits, as Brunel battles a hefty casualty list.

Playmaker Tommaso Allan, tight-five duo Josh Furno and Quintin Geldenhuys and Leicester front-rower Michele Rizzo have all been ruled out of Italy's early Six Nations action.

Italy start in Paris and that will really give us a really good viewpoint on their tournament prospects. France will want to impress their new coach so despite Italy’s good recent record against Les Bleus – I don't see them getting a result. They follow that with home games against England and Scotland and finish with two away trips to Dublin and Cardiff.

I don’t see any joy for such an inexperienced squad. No wins – wooden spoon. 

Final Position: 6th