Six Nations 2016 – Round 1 – Y’all Ready For this?

Six Nations 2016 – Round 1 – Y’all Ready For this?

After last week’s preview, the tournament gets real this weekend. And how real does it get? Quite frankly – we have three titanic battles to open the tournament and as I pack for the weekend in Dublin, I am looking forward to a weekend rugby festival.

A lot of comments in the press and on TV this week have compared the tries scored in the Southern Hemisphere Rugby Championship with the penalty kick dominated Six Nations. I think they are missing the point and getting a little carried away. Quite honestly, New Zealand are a class apart right now and the Rugby Championship with long distances involved doesn’t have the fervor and passion of the Six Nations where National pride and a patriotic crowd increases the pressure immensely for players to win at all cost.

They also seem to forget that the Northern Hemisphere teams are all playing Southern Hemisphere style rugby. I remember well the days when Wales would try and run from anywhere. The heartache of the 2007 World Cup defeat to Fiji still sits with me as a desperate day in Welsh rugby history. Watch the game as a neutral and it was a fantastic spectacle where both teams threw caution to the wind and went for it. But would I swap that for the defence dominated match-winning Wales of today? Not in a million years.

Winning is not everything – its the only thing!

FRANCE v ITALY

The opening match sees the fragile inexperienced Italy travel to Paris to meet Guy Noves' new look France.  Both teams will be anxious to avoid a first week defeat and for Noves – winning is not the only tolerable outcome – he has also to win well to satisfy the discontented Bleus supporters.

It’s a bold and exciting first team selection from Noves containing four uncapped players in the starting XV with a grand total of seven players potentially making their first outing for Les Bleus on Saturday as Noves looks to start the new French era with a bang and his promised attacking rugby.

The most surprising is the call up of France Sevens stalwart Virimi Vakatawa who has been selected on the wing. Vakatawa, who has not played any 15-man rugby since 2013, will form a new look back three alongside the reliable Maxime Medard and Hugo Bonneval.

Sebastien Bezy also makes his debut at scrum half and will pair up with number 10 Jules Plisson in the absence of the injured Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc who was deemed not fit enough when Noves assembled his squad last month.

I am also pleased to see  Stade Français Centre Jonathan Danty given his chance to impress and he is paired with Gael Fickou in an exciting combination of flair in the centres. Lock Paul Jedrasiak is the other uncapped player.

Up front Eddy Ben Arous and Rabah Slimani are the props either side of new captain Guilhem Guirado in a powerful looking front row.

Jedrasiak is paired with the experienced Yoann Maestri in the second row with Damien Chouly, Wenceslas Lauret and the peerless Louis Picamoles in the back row.

On the replacements bench Camille Chat, Jefferson Poirot are in line for their debuts in the front row if brought on while another debutant Yacouba Camara is the back-row cover.

Maxime Machenaud, Jean-Marc Doussain and Maxime Mermoz provide the back-line cover on the bench while the other forward replacements are Alexandre Flanquart and the giant Uini Atonio respectively.

This is a clear statement of intent and I expect France to respond and dominate against their vastly inexperienced competitors. Italy however has nothing to lose and one thing we have all learned is young untried teams have a habit of upping their game as there is no fear of defeat.

Jacques Brunel mirrors Guy Noves in naming 4 new caps in his starting XV for the match in Paris.  David Odiete from Italian league side Marchiol Mogliano will start at fullback and is a real surprise selection in place of the experienced and safe Luke McLean. Mattia Bellini from Padova is another Italian league addition on left wing, whilst fellow debutants Andrea Lovotti (Zebre) and Ornel Gega (Treviso) are in Italy's front row.

Prop Matteo Zanusso and No.8 Dries van Schalkwyk could make also make their international debuts from the bench.

Leonardo Sarto will join the new faces in the back three, while Gonzalo Garcia and Michele Campagnaro are the new centre partnership. Carlo Canna has been handed the number ten jersey and will combine with scrum-half Edoardo Gori just behind an experienced-looking back row of evergreen and critical captain Sergio Parisse and flankers Alessandro Zanni and Francesco Minto.

Wasps tighthead Lorenzo Cittadini joins hooker Gega and loosehead prop Lovotti in the front row, ahead of locks Marco Fuser and George Fabio Biagi.

Expect lots of fireworks in the forwards and some aggressive attacking rugby form France. I really can’t see beyond Les Blues and a home win in Paris.

France 27 Italy 12

SCOTLAND V ENGLAND

 The Calcutta Cup once again is the opening fixture for the ‘Auld Enemies’ and Scotland will be looking for their first win at Murrayfield against the Rose since 2008 in this 134gth meeting between the teams.

Coach Vern Cotter has gone for a solid experienced side for the opener. Scarlets flanker John Barclay has been reborn down in West Wales and is a welcome returnee after being left out of last year's World Cup squad and has been absent for the past three Six Nations campaigns.

He will win his 46th cap alongside John Hardie and Dave Denton in the new look Scottish back row at Murrayfield.

Glasgow centre Mark Bennett will also be in the starting line-up, having recovered from a shoulder injury and will partner Edinburgh's Matt Scott, with Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour on the wings and Stuart Hogg continuing at Full Back.

Greig Laidlaw will captain the side with Finn Russell at Outside half – both of whom are able to kick well and will cause considerable pause for thought in an England team, which will need to avoid ill discipline at the break down.

In the pack, the Gray brothers continue in the boiler room with Al Dickinson forming a solid front row with Ross Ford and WP Nell.

The Weather forecast for Murrayfield is for a cold and cloudy day but no rain, which should favour England marginally, but after rain on Thursday and Friday, the pitch will be good to soft and expect a forward dominated battle.

As for England, new Coach Eddie Jones has also been bold and names a formidable side.  Mike Brown has a lot to prove after a disappointing World Cup and with form an exciting back three with bath flyer Anthony Watson and the Exeter express Jack Nowell. Jonathan Joseph returns at Centre to partner Owen Farrell with George Ford at Outside half and I am delighted to see then talented Danny care recalled at scrum half.

In the pack – it’s a dangerous looking front row with Joe Marler, new captain Dylan "Tarzan" Hartley and Dan Cole. Joe Launchbury and George Kruis partner up in the boiler room and Chris Robshaw, Billy Vunipola, and James Haskell in a solid but uninspiring back row.

Three new caps on the bench with Paul Hill and jack Clifford providing forward cover and the exciting Ollie Devoto will also see some game time. The powerful looking bench is made up with Mako Vunipola, Courtney Lawes and Jamie George making up the forwards with Ben Youngs and Alex Goode the other backs.

On paper, England has the strength and the power to win and win comfortably. But matches are not won on paper and I feel if Scotland is ever to make a breakthrough it has to come this season. The Scots will be confident after their much improved World Cup performance and will want to work Irish referee John Lacey to win as many penalties as possible.

A tough game to call.  Both teams have a lot to offer and it should be a tight and exciting encounter. My head says England will be too streetwise and have too much power and experience but my heart says Scotland want this one more. A tight result and I will go with my heart. Scotland win.

Scotland 19 England 16

IRELAND v WALES

And so to the final match and Sunday afternoon in Dublin will see Wales travel to face the Irish at the Aviva Stadium. Wales will want to avoid the catastrophe of their last Six nations match in Dublin when they were out thought and totally out played by Ireland and were asleep at the wheel costing them a Six nations title.

Warren Gatland has gone with form and experience and taken no real risks with a brutal looking team line up. New Zealand born Gareth Anscombe continues at full back in the continued absence of the talismanic Leigh Halfpenny and the lack of match fitness of Liam Williams. Anscombe was solid against both Australia and South Africa in the World Cup but he is playing out of position albeit he has had considerable game time at full back in the Top 15 in his native country. Ireland may see him as a weak link and I expect lots of high balls and Garryowen’s to be heading his way. That could be a mistake as Anscombe is a clever player and can run hard and aggressively as well as kick out of defence. He adds the potential of a 2nd Five Eight to Wales and if gets into the attack, his aggressive flat passing game could cause Ireland some difficult times.

The back three is made up with George North and Tom James who is rightly recalled as the form winger in Wales.  James hasn’t started for Wales since 2010 but is a strong defender and attacker who comes in the game looking for work and offers considerably more than the fading Alex Cuthbert.

In the centres, Wales will be delighted to welcome back Jonathan Davies from his lengthy injury spell on the sidelines, and he will again form a partnership with the granite strewn Jamie Roberts.

Dan Biggar and Gareth Davies continue their World Cup partnership at half backs and if Wales can get their big back line moving it will very difficult to defend against. Biggar in particular looked world class in the World Cup and his growing maturity is adding a new stability and dimension to the Welsh attack.

In the pack, the selection of referee Jerome Garces has led Gatland to forsake Gethin Jenkins and gives Scarlets pair Rob Evans and Samson Lee the prop positions either side of the robust Scott Baldwin. Evans is a player for the future and the next world cup but had a fairly torrid time against Martin Castrogiovanni in Rome last season and Ireland will clearly target him in the scrums.

Elsewhere it’s a familiar pack with the mercurial Alun Wyn Jones and Luke Charters in the second row and with Dan Lydiard’s fitness uncertain, Gatland has gone for two open side flankers with Justin Tipuric partnering Captain Sam Warburton either side of the Taulupe Faletau.

On the bench – Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens and Tomos Francis are the front row replacements with Bradley Davies and the recovering Dan Lydiate the other forwards. , Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, and Alex Cuthbert cover the back line.

For Ireland, the injury-hit squad has been sweating on the fitness of Rob Kearney and Sean O’Brien. As I go to press, the Irish team has not been announced so any assessment here is based on my best judgment of what team will take the field.

The Irish pack will somewhat of a new look as they face up to a competition without a number of key names though, including a front five missing the injured Cian Healy, Mike Ross, Iain Henderson and the retired Paul O'Connell while the back row will also be without long-term injury victim Peter O'Mahony.

Jack McGrath is the new rock of the Irish pack and will form a front row with new captain Rory Best and I believe Schmidt will go with Connacht’s Nathan White at tight head. I expect Mike McCarthy to be partnering either Devin Toner or Donnacha Ryan in the second-row with some tough choices in the Irish back row. Lots of rumours that Josh Van der Flier and CJ Stander will get the call up for this game where Ireland know they have to stand up physically to Wales.

Behind the scrum, Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray will combine again and I expect Joe Schmidt to pick Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey to partner Jerrod Payne at centre with Andrew Trimble being recalled on the wing.

Referee Jerome Garces will play a critical role in this match. Garces can be very pedantic at times but he is very consistent and unbiased. If the penalty count starts to mount up for any side then it could be a long road back for the team on the receiving end with both Dan Biggar and Jonny Sexton showing metronomic accuracy with the boot on ball.

The kicking game – bother aerial and positional - will be key and Sexton probably has the edge, as he knows every inch of the Aviva Stadium turf.

I expect this game to be a classic and another game hard to call. Wales will start, as favourites but Ireland are notoriously hard to beat at home and will be well disciplined and coached to keep cool heads under pressure.

The game will be won or lost in the forwards and here Wales have a crucial edge. The experience should pay dividends and I expect a very tight battle, which given Six nations history means it probably won’t be.  Being Welsh, I have to go with a Welsh victory but it will be close and nailbitey.

Ireland 19 Wales 23