Round 3 – St. George and the Dragon

The 2019 Guinness Six Nations tournament reaches the half way stage with the critical third round of matches. The standard of rugby this season has been high in excitement but there have been lots of errors and few really close games.

Round 2 provided three exciting games which probably raised more questions than answers which we will hopefully seek some clarity on this weekend.

• Can Scotland bounce back from an error strewn loss to Ireland despite a mounting injury list or will Les Bleus finally win again?

• Are England the real deal after their demolition of France in Le Crunch?

• What are Wales chances after an unconvincing stuttering display in Rome?

• Can Irish eyes smile again, or will the Italians have the last laugh in the Rome sunshine?

Let’s look ahead to another three enthralling encounters in round 3:

France v Scotland

“Le jeu des perdants” – the “game of the losers” is how this encounter is being portrayed in the French press. France will come into this game with little confidence after being taught a lesson in modern rugby in round 2 at Twickenham whilst Scotland will be rueing the one that got away in Round 2.

Quite honestly where does one start to assess the French team? Jacques Brunel’s are searching for their first win of the championship having blown a 16-0 half-time lead against Wales to lose 24-19, followed by their worst defeat at Twickenham in over a century.

The psychological damage from blowing a 16-0 lead against Wales will be long lasting, but perhaps even more humbling was their total capitulation against England. Some serious questions must now be asked about the set-up of the French domestic game, and how it might be contributing to the international side.

The Top 14 has the significant problem that foreign players were dominating teams, stifling opportunities for young players to get game time at the highest level. The speed of the domestic league was also an area of concern as they play a ‘slow game’ in stark contrast to the free-flowing brand of rugby that French teams have been renowned for in the (now distant) past.

The FFR have taken some small measures over the past few years to address concerns about how international imports are holding back promising local talent, but there are now even more question marks over the intensity and pace of the French game right now.

The reality is France are paying the price for fifteen years of no real vision from the French Rugby Federation (FFR) for their national side. The young players haven’t had enough game time, and they have players playing out of position in different areas. None of which is conducive to national success.

There were some encouraging signs in the last 20 minutes of the game at HQ. Sure – the game was already lost, and England were not playing with the same intensity but replacements at Twickenham showed some of the talent of the new generation of players who can break the defensive line and produce their best ability. 

Dupont and N’tamack showed they have the ability at test level and that was really positive for France. Maybe Jacques Brunel wants to protect the young players a little bit and use them at the right time, but Dupont has shown from the start of the season that he is improving and is one of the best No9’s ever in France.

It’s no surprise then, that France have made four changes to the side that were thrashed 44-8 by England for their upcoming Guinness Six Nations match with Scotland. Scotland haven’t won in Paris since 1999 and, with Les Bleus coming off back-to-back losses to start this year’s Championship, Brunel has opted for the excitement of youth over the safety of experience to extend that streak.

Head coach Jacques Brunel has selected an inexperienced halfback combination of 22-year-old scrum-half Antoine Dupont and 19-year-old Toulouse teammate Romain Ntamack, They replace Morgan Parra and Camille Lopez, who drop out of the 23-man squad altogether.

It’s a bold gamble from Brunel but one that could pay dividends and provide the boost Les Bleus so desperately need as they look to get their Championship back on track.

Another of Toulouse’s backline gets a nod – 23-year-old Thomas Ramos. He starts at full-back having made his international debut off the bench against England. Yoann Huget, who struggled in the position at Twickenham, returns to the wing.

The Dupont-Ntamack half-back axis necessitated the selection of a reliable kicker somewhere else in the back-line and Ramos has been deemed that man.

The 23-year-old made his international debut as a replacement against England but will now start at No.15 after the back-three struggled at Twickenham. Ramos has been sterling from the tee for his in-form club this term but the pressure will now be on at the highest level, as he goes head-to-head from the tee with one of the best in the business in Greig Laidlaw.

The other switch in the backline sees Gaël Fickou moved from the wing to inside centre in place of Geoffrey Doumayrou, who fails to make the 23. Mathieu Bastareaud will be alongside Fickou. There are still some unorthodox selections, including the persistence with Damian Penaud on the wing, despite the Clermont man being one of the best centres in the Top 14, but moving  Gaël Fickou  back in the midfield after a stint out wide looks far more sensible and overall the back line feels much more balanced.

  

There is just one change in the forwards, and it comes in the backrow, with Wenceslas Lauret, who started against Wales on matchday one, selected at blindside instead of Yacouba Camara.

For Scotland, they will look back at the loss to Ireland as a real missed opportunity. After a strong start, they committed far too many unforced errors against a team with the street wise savvy of Ireland.

Ireland had rumbled into Edinburgh as wounded, angry beasts. Scotland wanted to play a handling game, swing the ball out wide, as exemplified by two Huw Jones bursts in the opening minutes.

Ireland preferred to keep things narrow, and there was some criticism of them against England for not having a Plan B. Well, they broke up the left for the game’s first try, though there was some fortune about it when Tommy Seymour and Sean Maitland were unable to tidy up a kick, gifting Conor Murray an easy finish.

Scotland have scored six tries already this year, third in this regard in the Championship – no surprise for a side that have talked up their will to play at pace and attack at all angles for several years now.

For Scotland to be successful in Paris they will need a solid platform and that cannot be built without having a robust pack. There has been plenty of talk about the giant size of France’s pack and they must be neutralised. The underlying statistics from the first two rounds hint that there could be areas for Scotland to exploit.

Scotland have been solid at the set-piece, with a perfect record in the scrum compared to France’s 92 per cent win percentage, as well as winning 19 of their 23 lineouts (83 percent).

Another area Les Bleus will need to be wary in Paris is at the breakdown, where Scotland have conjured up seven steals from two games and a breakdown retention of 97 per cent.

Jamie Ritchie has been key to Scotland’s success, with three steals, and his ability to jackal without interference will be critical to frustrate France and enable Scotland to counter.

This strategy worked against Italy – a five-try-win – but the hands let them down against Ireland – not normally something that typically happens to a Gregor Townsend team twice in succession.

The loss of Hogg was a huge blow and Scotland still seemed to be reeling from it when Ireland’s Jacob Stockdale burst through the middle for his try. Most of the damage to Scotland’s hopes was self-inflicted. Scotland were never out of the game but in reality, never looking like they could get back into it.

They move on to Paris where they have a simply dreadful record with no victory in more than 20 years. Confidence will also be shaken by the loss of several key players. The biggest headache for coach Gregor Townsend will be the loss of critical play maker Finn Russell. The 26-year-old, who suffered a head injury while on club duty with French TOP 14 side Racing

92, has not satisfied the requirements of the graduated return-to-play protocol. This means there is “insufficient time” for the former Glasgow Warriors fly-half to be considered for the third round of the championship, according to Scottish Rugby.

While both Racing 92 and Toulouse rested their France international players, the Scottish play-maker was forced to start a league match just six days before his country take on the French at the Stade de France in the Six Nations. He didn’t complete the first-half having a mixed afternoon before his game-ending 37th minute collision with the ball-carrying Lucas Tauzin, the Toulouse player’s knee colliding with the side of the face of the tackling out-half and forcing him off for a HIA.

Add to that the loss of Stuart Hogg, Ryan Wilson and Huw Jones and Scotland’s walking wounded will be looking to regroup and attempt to bounce back from Round 2’s disappointments.

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend has made four changes to his starting XV. Edinburgh back-row Magnus Bradbury is the only change to the pack following his return from injury last weekend, and he replaces Glasgow Warriors co-captain Ryan Wilson, who is nursing a knee injury.

The other three changes come in the backs, with Glasgow playmaker Pete Horne starting in place of Finn Russell. Blair Kinghorn of Edinburgh replaces Glasgow’s Stuart Hogg for his third international start at his club position of full-back, while Nick Grigg - a stand-out for Glasgow in their 38-34 PRO14 victory over Cardiff Blues last weekend - deputises for side lined club colleague Huw Jones.

France will be looking to maintain their impressive record against Scotland, they have lost in Paris to the Scots since 1999.

Scotland’s threadbare squad doesn’t look like it will have the artillery to beat France.

France by contrast, are a team that is full of individual brilliance. You look at that team and the quality is there – without a shadow of a doubt – but they’re not functioning as a unit.

They can’t continue to put in performances this average. I just can’t see it being three losses on the trot. There has to be a moment in which the French come to life and what better moment than at home, in front of your home crowd, just to get a feel-good factor back in French rugby.

As always it will depend upon which France turn-up, but they have the power in the pack and the exciting new half backs will be relishing the opportunity to savour a rare home victory. I think France will finally get it right and it’s a home win for Les Bleus!

France 26 Scotland 20

Wales v England

The game of the round sees Eddie Jones’ English warriors make the short trip over the Severn bridge to take on unbeaten Wales in Cardiff. They will travel full of confidence with a great record of silencing the hostile Welsh crowd having won the last two games in the Welsh capital city.

In order to be the best, you have to beat the best – and Wales certainly can stake a claim to be THE in-form team in world rugby.

They have won 11 Tests on the spin, equalling their national record that has stood for more than a century.

In that run they have downed the Springboks twice – who beat England last summer – ended a 13-Test hoodoo against the Wallabies and catapulted themselves into contention for this year’s Championship in Warren Gatland’s final year in charge.

It’s lucky for Wales when the year ends in 9. Wales haven’t lost to England in a year ending in 9 since 1939. 1969 saw Barry John rise to greatness. In 1979, England were routed 27-3 – a then record margin defeat for England. In 1989, Wales beat England despite coming into the game with no form on the back of three defeats. In 1999, Scott Gibbs wonder try at Wembley, and 2009 – five penalties from Stephen Jones was enough to see Wales home by a whisker despite being outscored 2 tries to 1.

So, Wales must be confident that the home advantage and history favour them and they are coming into the match full of confidence after 11 straight victories. 

Err no. Not quite. Wales have been misfiring badly in their opening two matches and haven’t yet found the formula to put teams to the sword or display open free flowing rugby in this year’s tournament. 

But despite all that Wales stand on the verge of history as they welcome England to Cardiff this weekend, yet despite stretching their winning run to 11 games with victories over France and Italy their Six Nations campaign has been anything but pretty.

Neither win yielded a bonus-point and the debate over who should line up at half-back for Warren Gatland’s side is yet to be settled.

Gareth Anscombe was poor in Paris, but his replacement Dan Biggar didn’t inspire either in Rome. Add to that the use of three scrum haves in two matches and it is worrying that Warren Gatland doesn’t seem to know who to pick as his best combination.

Eddie Jones’ suggestion that this is the best Welsh team in history can be filed safely under ‘banter’, but it is a group that has grown used to winning.

Wales were desperately disappointing in the Italian capital. Despite 10 changes, they had enough depth the grind out the win, but it was unconvincing stuff. Finn Russell showed how to open the Italian defence with intelligent kicking whilst Wales seemed content to try and bash their way to victory and it didn’t work. Wales looked like a side who hadn’t played together and making so many changes didn’t really give each individual the best opportunity to shine.

I thought Thomas Young had some strong moments, but I am sure he would have had many more in a stronger line-up, playing with more familiarity.

Wales captain Alun Wyn Jones will earn his 123nd Welsh cap against England adding a further nine for the British & Irish Lions. He will move within 16 caps of Richie McCaw, the world’s most garlanded international player, and just a couple short of Wales’s all-time record holder Gethin Jenkins.

Take a look at him during the anthems in Cardiff on Saturday and ask how many lock forwards have been more pivotal to their national team’s identity than Jones for his beloved Wales. His  influence becomes increasingly apparent. Smart enough to talk proactively to referees, proud enough to keep on pounding away until the end ... if England do win, it will not be through any lack of hwyl and Welsh spirit.

Warren Gatland has named 13 of the starting XV that took the field in the opening game against France, with Gareth Davies starting at 9 and Cory Hill the only change in the forwards as he replaces Adam Beard in the second row.

That means that Gareth Anscombe has won the battle for Wales’ No.10 once again for Saturday's Six Nations clash against England.

Anscombe started Wales’ opening comeback win over France but was on the bench a week later as Biggar pulled the strings for a much-changed side that downed Italy in Rome.

Despite encouraging noises all week, Wales have opted against parachuting Leigh Halfpenny straight back into the side after three months out. 

Liam Williams, Josh Adams and George North once again make up the back three, with Scarlets duo Jonathan Davies and Hadleigh Parkes remaining in midfield. Owen Watkin doesn’t break into the starting line-up despite an encouraging outing against Italy and he is added as back cover on the bench.

Tomos Williams, Samson Lee and Leon Brown are all unavailable due to injury with Nicky Smith, Dillon Lewis and Aled Davies taking tehgir places on the bench.

Blues half-backs Anscombe gets another chance at the Principality Stadium despite a poor performance against the French. I think that is the right choice. Anscombe gives Wales far more attacking edge and to beat England they will need to score tries not just defending. Gareth Davies becomes the third Welsh scrum half to start in three matches and his strength and aggression that could be the critical edge Wales need in attack.

Dan Biggar is named on the bench after shaking off the injury that forced him out of Northampton's match on the weekend after just 20 minutes.

In the front row, Tomas Francis is retained to start at tighthead prop, alongside Ken Owens and Rob Evans.

Cory Hill comes in for his first start of the 2019 Six Nations alongside captain Alun Wyn Jones. There are no other surprises in the pack as Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty form the back row trio.

There is no place for Thomas Young despite his strong showing in Rome. Aaron Wainwright gets the nod with Adam Beard on the bench.

The real question will be can Wales stop England’s fast start and earn enough of a platform in the pack to enable that attacking edge?

England know all about building up record test winning runs. They previously went on an 18-Test winning run – equalling the world record – at the start of Jones’ reign, the summit was in view.

But the climb was aborted in 2018 as England slipped to six Test defeats, including five in a row.

However, after an autumn of rejuvenation with some encouraging if uninspiring performances, England have come storming back out of the blocks into 2019 with two bonus-point wins from two to kick off this year’s Guinness Six Nations.

England have been absolutely awesome to watch and look like world beaters in almost every position. With struggling Italy and Scotland at home in their final two games, the general consensus is that Wales are the side most likely to derail their grand slam bid.

If you are picking winners purely on form over the tournament, especially the first few games; you’ve got to look at England. England will be favourites because we’ve not really seen any weakness in that team.

They came out of the blocks firing against Ireland and blew them away with forward power in attack and a brick wall defence – never allowing Ireland to settle and dictate the play. We saw them build on that awesome display in Dublin through putting a weak demoralised French team to bed.

It’s amazing what two games can do – two, big good games have been great for the confidence because 12 months ago, they finished fifth. Warren Gatland’s men will however, pose a different type of threat than what they have faced so far.

Certainly, their attacking game is likely to face a sterner examination. Ireland opted for Robbie Henshaw at full-back and England again took advantage of the personnel change in the back three, while France were all at sea in that department at Twickenham. France were ruthlessly exploited by an England side who took advantage of Damian Penaud and Gaël Fickou’s lack of experience on the wing and Yoann Huget’s stuttering display at full-back.

With two centres on the wings and a wing at full-back, Jonny May and his team-mates ran riot against Jacques Brunel’s beleaguered side.

It is hard to ignore the fact that France were a shambles, but you couldn’t but be impressed by the ruthlessness of the hosts. The pack is bristling – Kyle Sinckler seems to enjoy living life on the edge when it comes to the match officials – while Owen Farrell exudes class and composure with every involvement.

They scored inside the opening three minutes for a fifth successive Test, the lightning-fast May tapping down Elliot Daly's chip ahead after the full-back had sprinted into open space.

The try was made possible by a thunderous double tackle from Billy and Mako Vunipola that dislodged the ball from Guilhem Guirado's grasp - just one element of a dominant home start.

Two Owen Farrell penalties extended the lead to 11-3 in the 13th minute and the one-way traffic continued when England cranked up the tempo at an attacking line-out.

Waves of forwards arrived to run off Ben Youngs at scrum-half before the Leicester half-back expertly switched play left where a long Farrell pass offered May a one-on-one with Penaud that proved all-too easy to finish. And just before the half-hour mark May had completed his hat-trick as French incompetence was exposed for the umpteenth time.

England were wandering down a blind alley and Slade's up and under should have been caught easily by Morgan Parra, but instead the ball spilt to Ashton who chipped on for May to touch down.

Yoann Huget engineered a try for France down the right wing that was finished by Penaud, but it was only a brief interruption to the flow of home points that continued on the stroke of half-time when Slade danced over after Ashton had almost scored.

Slade was at the heart of England's fifth try as he intercepted Camille Lopez's pass and kicked ahead and when Ashton was tackled without the ball, Owens awarded a generous penalty try before showing Gaël Fickou a yellow card.

The one way carnage continued in the 55th minute when Farrell scored seconds after May had almost claimed his fourth from a move that started deep in the home half, but then all urgency drained from the game and neither line was breached again.

England coach Eddie Jones makes two injury-enforced changes from the 44-8 rout of France for their Guinness Six Nations trip to Cardiff. Injuries to wing Chris Ashton and key prop Mako Vunipola sees Exeter Chiefs duo Jack Nowell selected on the right wing and Ben Moon in the front-row for the Principality Stadium showdown.  

There are also changes on the bench as Joe Cokanasiga  and Brad Shields  are included in the match day 23 for the first time this tournament while Ellis Genge and Harry Williams are named on the bench. Brad Shields comes in for Nathan Hughes as a finisher as England look at the encounter  as a high work-rate game.

Owen Farrell will captain England, who have won their last five Six Nations matches against Wales.

Wales are on a record-equalling Test run of 11 consecutive wins while England are top of the standings after two bonus-point wins from two. England have won the last five Championship meetings between the two sides.

The English midfield has a better balance of guile and defensive nous, while the back three is in blistering form, but can Wales do a number on the visitors next time out?

Wales represent a considerable step up from France and Italy, Jones’ side finding some ominous form ahead the trip to Cardiff. Wales must make a fast start in Cardiff, while matching their visitors’ physicality, line speed and hunger at the breakdown – and ensuring there isn’t space in the back-field for Owen Farrell, Henry Slade and Elliot Daly to exploit.

If Wales are to beat England on Saturday then they will need to harass Jones’ side from the first whistle, and make sure they do not have a moment to relax.

The breakdown is of course, therefore, going to be all important. For much of Gatland’s reign this has been an area that Wales dominated their neighbours almost at will. But without Sam Warburton, and with Tom Curry an emerging force for England, the hosts will not have it all their own way 

England's revival has been the talking point of the opening two rounds of the 2019 Six Nations and their on-point kicking game has underpinned their early success.

Against the heavily-favoured Irish, they turned the table on Joe Schmidt's men and suffocated Ireland with tactical kicks, while they tortured France and their inept backfield defence with the boot the following week.

34 tries have been scored in this year's Six Nations altogether; England have accounted for 10 of those. Thirteen of the 34 tries have involved a kick. Of England's 10, seven have come from a move which involved a kick.

This is now a massive part of England's game - one which Wales must stop if they are to triumph in Cardiff. The last two clashes between these two sides in the Guinness Six Nations have been absolute barn-stormers, and England have edged them both.

This game is hard to call. It’s always nice for a team like Wales to come into this game at home and be underdogs as well. The pressure is on England, because everyone talking about the hype of England, how well they’ve played.

So, the clear pressure is on England and that suits a Welsh team better, and you look at some of the previous Grand Slams that Wales have won – they’ve not been expected to win, and they’ve been underdogs. Wales will not want to lose, and Alun Wyn Jones would rather die on the pitch. Wales can’t afford a poor start and must be prepared to front up physically against England.

My head says England have just too much power to lose but Wales haven’t hit any heights and have been written off by the pundits. That tends to favour Wales. They have a habit of turning around impossible games. My heart says Wales can’t possibly play badly again and I am sticking my neck and reputation and calling a Welsh win.

Wales 26 England 24

Italy v Ireland

Just how do you measure success for Italy? Head coach Conor O'Shea said pre-tournament that performances have to become more consistent, and if that happens, victories should follow.

Their home reversal to Wales was their 19th successive defeat in the Six Nations, and a simplistic view would be to suggest that O'Shea's arrival has made little difference to the Azzurri. However, considering where they find themselves in the game, progress is not quite as black and white as wins and defeats. A win over Georgia in November was a boost for confidence, while the U20s got the better of Scotland two weeks ago.

O'Shea has invested a great deal of time into looking at the structures of the game in Italy, and while the benefits of this may only come to fruition for the national team long after he departs, the performances of Benetton this year - currently second in Conference B behind Leinster - is encouraging.

A Six Nations win is what they crave however, and a revival Sunday week would end any Irish ambitions of retaining their title. If you look at their last two games they have played pretty well in patches and I think their defence has been strong and well organised for the most part, especially inside their own 22.

They are a very physical side and their set piece has been steady enough at times, so they have shown glimpses of what they’re able to do. The hosts showed plenty of attacking intent and endeavour against Wales, and their tally of five tries thus far is the same as Joe Schmidt's team, and have only conceded two more than the men in green.

Italy captain Sergio Parisse will miss Sunday's Six Nations match with Ireland after suffering a concussion while playing for his club Stade Francais at the weekend. The news comes as a massive blow to Conor O'Shea's team, whose defeat in week two to Wales was their 19th consecutive championship loss.

Number 8 Parisse, at 35, remains the team's talisman and has amassed 136 caps since making his debut in 2002.

As I go to publish, the Italian and Irish teams have not been named.  O’Shea has named a 33 man training squad and Gloucester scrum-half Callum Braley is the main surprise earning a  maiden international call-up ahead of their Guinness Six Nations match against Ireland.

Braley, who plays his club rugby for Gloucester, represented England at Under-20 level but qualifies for Italy through his grandfather. The 24-year-old has been an ever-present in the Premiership for the Cherry & Whites this term and will join up with the Azzurri in Rome on Sunday.

Another addition to the squad is Zebre centre Giulio Bisegni, who started against Ireland in the Autumn Internationals but has missed the first two matches of this year’s Guinness Six Nations with a calf injury.

Scrum-half Tito Tebaldi is still battling an injury he picked up during the warm-up before Italy’s Round One loss to Scotland – remains with the group, meaning there will be four No.9s for Conor O’Shea to work with in Rome.

The defending Grand Slam champions Ireland, were beaten by England in their opening match of the 2019 campaign – their first Championship defeat in Dublin in six years.

Joe Schmidt’s side bounced back in Round Two with a 22-13 victory against Scotland at BT Murrayfield thanks to tries from Conor Murray and Jacob Stockdale.

Ireland go to Rome in the rare circumstances that they have no Grand Slam pressure and the ability to release the shackles and play some rugby. With these last three games can come the gift of running rugby and improvisation. Ireland have the opportunity to see a blank canvass, and simply paint. Splash every colour imaginable, use broad and subtle brush strokes.

Irish players are unburdened of the usual pressures they crave. They no longer need to eke out a result by any means. Playing the percentages are less relevant. It’s about rediscovering confidence levels, it can be about playing with a little more flair and élan. 

Now, we know the basic structures of Schmidt’s Ireland will remain the same, but opportunity comes a calling in Rome. Same applies when France – whose coach has rolled the dice yet again with his third radically different line-up to face Scotland  – visit in Dublin and the finale in Cardiff.

Ireland have announced a clean bill of health ahead of the Six Nations trip to Italy, with Robbie Henshaw, Chris Farrell, Tadgh Beirne and Iain Henderson all providing Joe Schmidt with a timely and welcome boost.

Henshaw has fully recovered from the dead leg that ruled him out of the win against Scotland last time out, while Farrell and Beirne both took part in full training today, having overcome knee injuries.

Henderson played all 80 minutes of Ulster’s Pro14 8-0 win over Ospreys at the weekend, his first game of the year after a thumb problem, but he was cited for an incident in that game and faced an anxious wait to see if he'd be suspended for Sunday's mission in Rome.

Ireland will be keen to maintain their momentum and remain optimistic of a share in this year’s championship. I don’t see Italy being able to compete at all with the tactics and power and Ireland should ease to a comfortable bonus-point win – they’re a really organised, well-drilled team.

They were well beaten by England and that surprised everybody. They beat Scotland but didn’t really play that great, we’ve really not seen the best of them at the moment in this Guinness Six Nations tournament so far.

If Ireland want to potentially win the Championship, and they still can win it, they need bonus points and I can’t see anything different.

Italy 11 Ireland 37