Week 4 - Six Nations 2018 - Let's spice it up!

The proverb “Pride comes before a fall” could have been written for Rugby Raconteur given my week 3 prediction accuracy. Over optimistic with a 100% accuracy record from the first two rounds – the world came crashing down with only one correct result predicted in week 3. Like all good sports, rugby remains unpredictable and all the better for it although the “home” advantage stats are making it increasingly difficult for all the teams.

Scotland were the outstanding performer in week 3 with a dominance of the previously unbeaten England that showed everyone that their good Autumn form was no fluke and they remain a formidable force at Murrayfield.

Ireland out thought and outplayed a disappointing Welsh team in Dublin whilst France overcome a brave resistance from Conor O’Shea’s hapless Italian stallions.

The championship is looking like a two-horse race between Ireland and England but both face tough games this weekend whilst Wales have the chance to experiment against Italy. Let’s review this week’s encounters:

Ireland v Scotland

First up in Dublin is Championship leaders Ireland against last week’s surprise Calcutta cup winners Scotland.

Joe Schmidt’s Ireland can go into this game full of confidence with dreams of another Grand Slam after their comprehensive defeat of Wales in round 3. Although the final score made the result look comparatively close – make no mistake Ireland dominated Wales and were stronger in almost every area of the game. If Jonny Sexton had not had an iffy display with the kicks at goal – the score line could have been a 20 point + gap. Ireland were that good.

Irish coaches and journos have been ultra-respectful of Scottish rugby and wary that the Scots will have a rugby renaissance against the men in green.  In reality, this wariness has been completely unjustified. Excluding the solitary loss at Croke Park in 2010, Ireland's average winning margin in Dublin in the new millennium is 20 points. 

One of Ireland's tasks against Wales was to absorb the loss of 93 caps worth of experience in the absence of Tadhg Furlong, Iain Henderson and Robbie Henshaw. Job done. Andrew Porter came in at prop and was once again outstanding in the loose, carrying nine times. The highlight was surviving a reset scrum that led to Ireland's fourth try. Now third-choice lock Devin Toner put in an excellent effort in the scrum, lineout and around the park. Meanwhile, centre Chris Farrell took home a deserved man of the match award.

The Irish team has not been named as we go to press but I expect there will be three likely changes in Joe Schmidt's line up. 

With centre Chris Farrell out due to a knee injury Garry Ringrose is likely to be parachuted straight into the starting side despite having only just come back from an injury lay-off himself.

This is because of a shortage of bodies in the centre following Robbie Henshaw recent shoulder operation and Farrell’s set-back.

Up front, Tadhg Furlong has been declared fit and will almost certainly slot straight back in at tight-head despite Andrew Porter’s excellent displays as his replacement for most of the win over Italy and the follow-up victory against Wales.

Iain Henderson is fit again, leaving him in line to replace Devin Toner in the second row.

This will mean changes on the bench too, with Porter and Toner both expected to be named amongst the replacements.This is likely to see Quinn Roux and John Ryan dropping out of the match-day 23.

Scotland had a slow start to their 2018 campaign when they lost their opening clash to Wales but back-to-back wins over France and England have now raised hopes that they can make a bid for their first title since their 1999 Five Nations success.

After blowing the NatWest Six Nations Championship wide open with victory over England, Scotland will travel to Dublin full of confidence despite their abysmal away record.

Few outside the Scottish camp predicted that Eddie Jones’ side would come a cropper at Murrayfield, but a ferocious performance from the pack, a scintillating display from Finn Russell at out-half and Huw Jones’ devastating finishing laid the foundations for a long-awaited Calcutta Cup success.

Scotland dominated and bullied England in Edinburgh. They dug deep and pulled out the performance of the season to see off the second ranked side in the world in the biggest upset of the 2018 tournament thus far. This was the first victory over England in a decade and only the second ever defeat on Eddie Jones’ watch.

The physicality of the Scottish pack was impressive and that gave the platform for hit and miss outside half Finn Russell to boss the match and deservedly win the man of the match for his controlled and level-headed performance

Russell has been under some pressure after disappointing games in the first two matches but he dug deep and the belief in the whole Scottish team was there for all to see.

Scotland scored three tries in the first half and three points after the break as England inevitably rallied after a wobbly first 40 minutes. They rode their luck a lot in the third quarter of the game when the England scored one try, and had two more tries wiped off, but the Scots kept their heads to finish deserved winners by a margin that might have surprised even themselves.

There were any number of heroes but centre Huw Jones continued his try-scoring streak, grabbing two touchdowns and contributing hugely to Scotland’s third. The Scottish centre now has ten tries in 14 Tests.

Flankers John Barclay and Hamish Watson bossed the breakdown, earning ten turnovers to England’s four and in the end,  it was England’s 13 penalties which contributed to their own demise.

No surprise’s then that Scotland Coach Gregor Townsend has made just one change to the side that defeated England for their NatWest 6 Nations game with Ireland in Dublin on Saturday.

Glasgow Warriors wing Tommy Seymour has failed to recover sufficiently from the back injury sustained in the national team’s Calcutta Cup win leading to an injury-enforced change to the back division,

The impressive, in-form Edinburgh Rugby back Blair Kinghorn will earn his first start for the national team on the wing in place of Seymour, with Glasgow Warriors wing Lee Jones taking his vacated place on the bench.

Townsend has made one further change to the replacements bench, with Glasgow Warriors hooker Fraser Brown – who featured in all but two Scotland Tests last year – returning from injury to replace Scott Lawson.

That means there is still no place for talisman Richie Gray, despite the giant Toulouse lock re-joining the squad after shaking off a troublesome calf injury as Grant Gilchrist gets the nod to start alongside his brother Jonny Gray.

Flanker John Hardie also misses out despite being handed a recall to Townsend's squad this week for the first time since being suspended by his club side Edinburgh following allegations of cocaine use.

The one thing this Irish side has demonstrated so far in this championship is their ability to maintain possession with dominance through their forwards. Ireland have got probably the most mobile and powerful pack in the Six Nations and they have shown how they can maintain pressure on the opposition for long periods of time.

It’s hard to see how Scotland can overcome such pressure without conceding through a tiring and battered defence. Scotland’s defence is not the tackling machine of Wales, and it’s also likely that the penalty count will be high against them, whilst their defence is under the cosh.

Behind the scrum Ireland’s halfbacks should have the benefit of quick ball which created so much havoc against Wales, no doubt the Scots will be targeting this area, with the additional risk of been penalised. 

Looking at positions 1 to 10, I see complete dominance for Ireland and that's all that matters to control and dominate the game and should Sexton bring his kicking game to the table I see Earls and Stockdale latching on to some well executed cross kicks to add to our threat.

Scotland won’t have the same emotional drive against Ireland that they had against England. There was definitely an added incentive with the Calcutta cup and bragging rights up for grabs between them. If Scotland are to find a way through the Irish defence it will be by exploiting the width as Ireland look vulnerable defensively on the wings.

Ireland are clearly being exposed on the wings with overlaps. They look to be probably committing too many players to the mauls and break down. Add to that -  maybe a bit of inexperience in the back line as well. Townsend strategy is to use lots of attacking options. They do not just rely on one pass to create something but use many back-up runners as support or decoy. A perfect example was against England where Jonny May was caught like a rabbit in the car headlights ball watching Huw Jones for a well-executed try. He simply couldn't decide who to cover. Ireland can’t allow themselves to allow a player like Huw Jones get up a head of steam.

If you look at the stats, Ireland dominated possession against all three opposing teams so far yet with as much possession as they had, they have still conceded 7 tries in 3 games against teams where at periods Ireland totally dominated. With their limited possession the opposition have all managed to achieve a serious try return for their efforts. 

I believe Ireland will win by frustrating Scotland into errors. They have a self-destruct button n themselves and once Ireland begin and continue with aggressive line speed I don’t believe Scotland will have answers.  Sexton won’t have another off day with the boot.

Ireland by two scores.

Ireland 30 Scotland 22

France v England

France finally got their Six Nations moving with a workmanlike display against Italy in Marseilles. The returning Mathieu Bastareaud, was sensational against the Azzurri blowing the Italian defence wide open and generally making a real nuisance of himself.

Beating Italy, a first victory for France in a year, has lifted the mood in the French camp and they will have seen from Murrayfield how Scotland showed the way to get at England, who remain the team every Frenchman wants to beat. Brunel had shuffled the pack after his side began their campaign with two consecutive defeats, and his decision paid dividends as Mathieu Bastareaud – returning from suspension – starred in a 34-17 defeat of Italy.

“Le Crunch” – as the game is referred to in France; is always a spiky confrontation. The opposition between France and England in the tournament has never lost its flavour despite the current delicate situation of French rugby. France have lost four in a row in the Championship to England, with their last success coming in 2014 at the Stade de France.

France are a global power of rugby in disarray. No team, including England, can match their Six Nations record in the open era: Grand Slams in 1997, 1998, 2002, 2004 and 2010. But the last-named year was the pinnacle of French success. From 2012 to 2016 they finished in the bottom half of the table every season. 

Jacques Brunel can take heart from his result against Italy with strong disciplinary improvement form his side and much better tactical kicking control.

The old adage – “You don’t change a winning team” holds true and France head coach Jacques Brunel has made one change to the side that downed Italy in Marseille for the huge clash against England in the NatWest 6 Nations.

Brunel has responded by largely showing faith in the players involved in that win. Francois Trinh-Duc will start at fly-half with only experienced fly-half Lionel Beauxis dropping out of the starting XV.

Toulon’s Trinh-Duc, is probably the one Outside half in France with enough experience and flair to cause second thrusts in the England game plan and he is an intelligent recall to be the man entrusted with taking on England, who are still shell shocked after Scotland ended their Grand Slam bid at Murrayfield.

Les Bleus ran in three tries against Italy in the South of France and will maintain the same attacking trio of Remy Gross, Hugo Bonneval and Benjamin Fall.

Mathieu Bastareaud, continues at outside centre with Geoffrey Doumayrou joining him in an aggressive attacking formation.

Marco Tauleigne makes his third successive appearance at No.8 with Yacouba Camara and Wenceslas Lauret continuing in the back row.

Paul Gabrillagues, who dotted down against the Italians last time, will join Sébastien Vahaamahina to form a powerful second row.

Captain Guilhem Guirado, Rabah Slimani and Jefferson Poirot make up the rest of the pack.

There are no recalls for Teddy Thomas or Remi Lamerat and I am surprised La Rochelle’s talented Kevin Gourdon is not recalled at Flanker.

For England where do you start. The defeat against Scotland will come as a massive shock and it was hard to see many positives in their performance. They gave away far too many penalties in a match superbly refereed by Nigel Owens who like Eddie Jones was the subject of unacceptable verbal abuse for on-line trolls and face to face.

England have lost two away games in the last two Six Nations. In both cases – the key factor has been England falling behind early on in the matches and an absence of leadership on the field.

As in Dublin last year, England seem to lack the leaders who will stand up and be counted when needed. Dylan Hartley is absolutely no leader and whilst its relatively straightforward to win games at home with 78,000 England fans screaming you on – it’s a different prospect in the hostile away caldrons in the Six Nations and England need to find leaders who can dig them out of trouble and fast if they want to be in serious contention for the 2019 World Cup.

The fallout from England’s loss to Scotland at Murrayfield is nothing new and will be analysed and over-analysed until the World Cup kicks off in Japan in September 2019.

There are exceptions, but for the most part, England’s losses over the last few years have tended to stem from issues at the contact area more so than any other deficiency.

Whether that has been the lack of a player or two who can make a significant difference in that area with their ability over the ball in the open play; or a general lack of discipline;  – or too much discipline and an inability to play referees;  it has been a consistent theme damaging with England. Ever since the triumvirate of Richard Hill, Neil Back and Lawrence Dallaglio hung up their international boots, the English back-row has been in flux and, despite some excellent players over the years, the balance of the group has never truly been nailed for any length of time.

Breakdown issues are not only endemic to the national team, they also affect many of the sides in the Premiership strongly, particularly in European competition and even more particularly against Guinness PRO14 opposition.

Chris Robshaw will never be more than a journeyman and would not make the starting line-up of any other home nation. James Haskell is far too in disciplined and don’t even get me started on Courtney Lawes- who is not and never will be a back row forward. Period.

With Billy Vunipola struggling with injuries and missing much of the last 18 months, England’s inability to break the gain-line as regularly and flood forward on to the ball, rather than contest an arm wrestle at a more stationary ruck, has risen to the surface.

Sam Underhill is probably the one player who looks the real deal and he has played most of his recent rugby in Wales rather than in England and that’s been a critical part in his development.

England have front row and second choices in abundance but the back-row needs resolving and stability.

The situation is even more stark if you compare the back-row talent in England with that in near neighbours Wales.

Ellis Jenkins, James Davies, Ollie Griffiths, Nic Cudd, Will Boyde, Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi, Will Jones – all would make England’s starting line-up.

Welsh rugby, with just four top tier professional sides, is pumping out players in the back-row who have fetching prowess far more efficiently than English rugby is with 12 top tier clubs.

Eddie Jones has refused to press the panic button but has made some shrewd and necessary changes for the trip across the Channel.

Injury has ruled out captain Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints) so Jamie George (Saracens) will finally get the chance to start a match as he replaces him at hooker in what is an otherwise unchanged starting forward pack to the one that faced Scotland.

Owen Farrell will captain the team with fellow Saracen Mako Vunipola named as vice-captain.

Ben Te’o will start at outside centre with the welcome return of Wasps’ Elliot Daly to the starting XV at left wing.

Anthony Watson moves from right wing to fullback with Jonny May switching wings.

There are six changes among the replacements including Luke Cowan-Dickie, Mike Brown, James Haskell , Jonathan Joseph, Sam Simmonds and Kyle Sinckler.

The defeat to Scotland ended England's hopes of securing a second Grand Slam in three years but the outstanding question is it is just a blip rather than a start of a decline for England?

The reality is good teams don’t lose two games in a row very often. England haven’t won 24 out of 26 games by doing a lot of things wrong. They have been doing a lot of things right and need to just put the ship back on course against France.

Discipline will be key and they definitely need to be wary of falling foul of the referee in the way they did in Edinburgh.

France will undoubtedly give away penalties and Farrell will have a critical role. England have to hope that being named as Captain won’t distract him from his role as the potential match winner.

I expect a tight game and not many tries. England will bounce back but it won’t be decisive or pretty.

France 13 England 17

Wales v Italy

The week’s third match see’s the Azzurri travel to Cardiff’s Principality stadium to Face Wales with a Sunday afternoon kick off.  Italy will be bolstered by a much better performance against France in Marseilles whilst Wales are back to the drawing board after a poor performance in Dublin.

Warren Gatland made several changes against Ireland including the recall of Dan Biggar and it was a bitter disappointment to see Wales reverting back to a more defensive game plan.

The free-flowing Scarlets-inspired rugby of round 1 seems an age ago and Wales were found wanting in most areas against Ireland more especially in their tactical ineptitude and lack of steel in their pack.

The forwards were a massive disappointment with the front row completely dominated. Ken Owens, Samson Lee and Rob Evans were second best in the scrums and there were few Welsh ball carriers in evidence either. Captain Alun Wyn Jones had his worst game in a Welsh shirt and the back row which performed so well in the first two rounds were singularly out muscled and dominated at the breakdowns whilst the Irish pack’s maul regularly sent Wales trundling backwards, Ireland’s runners pummelled the Welsh defensive line, and their breakdown work across the board was conducted with almost savage intent.

I have never bought into this game plan of defending for as long as possible and then letting rip in the last 20 minutes. Wales kicked every piece of possession away for large parts of the game and showed little enthusiasm to attack Ireland who had 80% possession until late into the second half. It was clear that this was yielding diminishing returns and, having played so well with ball in hand against Scotland, you would have thought that they would have shown more ambition.

Ireland had close on 140 rucks in Dublin a week last Saturday but Wales failed to win one single solitary turnover in that department. They simply couldn’t get their hands on the ball partly because Ireland protected it so well and presented it quickly and efficiently, but also because Wales had only one player in Josh Navidi who could be classed as a specialist in pilfering opposition possession.

Wales didn’t die and amazingly despite being out thought and out muscled they almost nicked it at the close. Gareth Anscombe and George North added attacking intent and found plenty of space to finally drive at Ireland but it was all too little and far, far too late.

It’s no surprise that Warren Gatland has swung the axe and it is a very experimental looking Welsh side with ten changes to the starting line-up.

British Lion Taulupe Faletau will captain Wales for the first time in his career  whilst Scarlets flanker James Davies makes his Test debut in Sunday's NatWest 6 Nations clash against Italy in Cardiff.

The 70-times capped Bath No. 8 returns from injury to take the captain’s armband and will line-up in a new look back row with the in-form Scarlets open side Davies whilst Justin Tipuric starts in an unfamiliar role at blindside flanker.

Davies, 27,  is the younger brother of centre Jonathan Davies and is best known for featuring for the Great Britain Olympic silver medal-winning rugby sevens squad at Rio 2016 along with some dodgy ink work on his hands.

“Cubby Boi” was however, an integral part of the Scarlets' PRO12 title triumph last term, in addition to helping them reach this season's European Champions Cup quarter-finals.

The team sees sweeping changes in almost all areas. George North is back on the wing forming a new partnership with Liam Williams, who moves from wing to full-back instead of Leigh Halfpenny, and wing Steff Evans.

North starts following two impressive performances off the bench against England and Ireland and comes into the side after some controversy after he missed his club Northampton's Aviva Premiership game against Sale Sharks last Saturday, with interim Saints boss Alan Gaffney suggesting the 25-year-old did not want to play.

In the centres, remains at 12 but has a new partner at outside centre with Osprey Owen Watkin having a rare opportunity to show his worth replacing the stuttering, disappointing Scott Williams.

In the half backs, I am delighted to see fly-half Gareth Anscombe finally get a starting opportunity after impressive cameos against England and Ireland. He will partner Gareth Davies at scrum half who will be hoping for a stringer display after his error strewn penalty conceding match in Dublin.

In the Front row – it’s all change with young Dragons hooker Elliot Dee handed his first Welsh start with Nicky Smith and Tomas Francis recalled at prop.

Given Wales lack of ball carriers, Bradley Davies is recalled to add more steel in the boiler room and with Regular skipper Alun Wyn Jones rested, he will team up with the retained Cory Hill.

One has to question making so many changes and Gatland has a habit of putting teams together like this in the Autumn internationals with a record of less than stellar results – most recently the embarrassing Welsh performance against Georgia.

The back row is a real gamble. I feel Gatland had little choice but to take some risks. Ross Moriarty has lacked fitness and sharpness and has disappointed in all three matches so far. The combination of Tipuric and Davies is bold but not without some high risk. Wales tried this approach with Sam Cross in the Autumn and that proved a total failure. Tipuric has yet to really have some long game time but he lacks a physical presence at 6 and I would have retained Aaron Shingler and put Navidi on the bench.

Scarlets trio Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Samson Lee provide the front-row cover with Cardiff Blues duo Seb Davies and Ellis Jenkins completing the forward contingent on the bench.

Seb Davies is a real talent, whilst Ellis Jenkins has come back strongly form injury and is another who has earned his opportunity.

Scarlets’ Aled Davies, Rhys Patchell and Leigh Halfpenny provide the back-line cover.

For Italy - there is little to lose and Conor O’Shea must be feeling all his numbers have come up on the lottery seeing this inexperienced Welsh side. Conor O'Shea's side were in touch at half-time but had no answer to France in the second half, who missed several chances to pick up a fourth try and a bonus point, before full-back Matteo Minozzi's late consolation try for Italy.

They may still be searching for a first victory in the 2018 NatWest Six Nations but the signs are undoubtedly there that Italy are on an upward curve.

Full Back Minozzi once again demonstrated his nose for the try-line by getting on the scoresheet late on against France while flanker Sebastian Negri was a dynamic presence throughout the encounter.

Negri appears to have learned plenty from playing alongside the great Sergio Parisse as he made 63 metres on 16 carries, beat eight defenders, successfully offloaded twice and added 14 tackles, missing just one, for good measure.

Italian skipper Sergio Parisse will win his 133rd cap when he leads his Azzurri team out against Wales.

As we go to press, once again the Italian team has not been named.

Italy have nothing to lose and will certainly fancy their chances of causing Welsh hearts to flutter a little faster in Cardiff. If Wales can hold their own in the set pieces and compete at the breakdowns then I expect Anscombe to boss the game and release George North and Steff Evans then I feel Wales can win quite comfortably.

If Wales start to concede penalties like they did against Ireland, then it could be more of a struggle. Without Leigh Halfpenny and Dan Biggar, Wales are left with Anscombe as the solitary goal kicker and that is not an area of his game where he excels. Missed penalties could therefore be a factor.

The reality is that Gatland has picked a largely inexperienced and experimental line up with unfamiliar combinations in key areas. Don't expect them to gel immediately or Italy to accept that they are only making up the numbers.

To be honest, I’m quite excited by the team as there could be huge potential in this group. James Davies has a lot of doubters to prove he can step up to this level but at least he is being given the opportunity. Tipuric and Faletau are world class players returning to the Welsh line up, and I’m excited by the back line. The bench looks especially strong and Seb Davies and Ellis Jenkins are both potential future Welsh Captains. If they all click, it could be a special afternoon!

Wales at a cantor but there will be some heart-stopping moments.

Wales 30 Italy 10