Six Nations Round 4 – No bright shoots…

Six Nations Round 4 – No bright shoots…

Round 3 followed rounds 1 &2 with more tediously dull, uninspiring rugby. We have now had 720 minutes of the 2016 RBS Six Nations and barely 36 minutes or 5% has been worth watching. Worse still for a Welshman, the most watchable and exciting rugby has been played by England!

Round 3 really showed no improvement on the previous matches. Wales Friday night game against France was so tedious at times that you could have bottled it and sold it as an insomnia medicine. TV pundit Jonathan Davies was moved to comment that there was nothing for the studio to discuss at half time.

We have to face facts and the Northern Hemisphere teams are stuck in the dark ages. The tournaments the teams play in are no help to them stepping up to the international stage. In France, the Top 14 has world-class talent in it but little of it is French. The Top 14 recipe is based on grinding forward play and defence with the last 15 minutes of games being when teams attack such is the lack of focus on fitness.

The Guinness Pro 12 is lamentable. Poor refereeing really damages the tournament and most teams show little strength in depth. It means that Celtic country players have a huge step up when they pull on the international jersey.

The Aviva Premiership is probably the best competition but the focus on relegation means that teams take few risks and too many journeymen reside in its constituent clubs reducing the game time for younger emerging talent. The risks of failure are high.

After all this doom and gloom – lets hope for some bright shoots of recovery in Round 4. This weekend’s match previews:

IRELAND v ITALY

Joe Schmidt’s team are still looking for their first victory of the competition and it should come this Saturday in Dublin’s Aviva Stadium when they face winless Italy.

Ireland came to Twickenham with little optimism of victory but the injury ravaged side put up a solid performance before being outplayed by England with defensive patterns falling away in the second half.  Ireland were outmuscled by the England pack and lacked penetration in attack despite playing twice against an ill-disciplined England side who gave up two yellow cards at crucial moments.

Rory Best was highly erratic with his line out throwing and that didn’t help the Irish retain enough quality ball to cause England any real headaches.

Joe Schmidt makes just two changes for the visiting Italian side. Ulster’s Jarrod Payne returns to the starting XV and renews his centre partnership with Robbie Henshaw.

There had been calls in the Irish press this week for Joe Schmidt to name Payne at fullback, but he gets the final nod at centre and replaces Stuart McCloskey, who drops out of the match day squad. McCloiskey had a curate’s egg of a game against England  - good in parts - but he didn’t really do enough to displace Payne and the Irish threequarter line has a better balance with the experienced and battle hardened Payne returning.

Simon Zebo comes in for Rob Kearney at fullback after Kearney failed to recover from a hamstring injury, but otherwise the starting XV is unchanged from the team that lost to England at Twickenham.

Andrew Trimble and Keith Earls start on the wings, while Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton are back again as the old firm at half-back.

Schmidt has opted for a front row of Jack McGrath, Captain Rory Best, and Mike Ross.  Devin Toner and Donnacha Ryan remain in the second row, despite Ultane Dillane's impressive cameo against England, with CJ Stander, Josh van der Flier and Jamie Heaslip in the back row.

Cian Healy has been ruled out of the match with a mild hamstring strain. Connacht prop Finlay Bealham will take the Leinster man's place on the bench and will make his Test debut if called upon. Healy missed the opening games against Wales and France after undergoing knee surgery and came on as a replacement for the final 20 minutes of the defeat to England. 

Australian-born Bealham has played four times for Ireland U20s and twice for the Emerging Ireland side.

Italy were out played and out thought by a resurgent Scotland in Rome but Exeter Chiefs combative centre Michele Campagnaro who has been one of their stand out players.

Italian Coach Jacques Brunel continues to put his faith in youth and has determined that Rookie fly half Edoardo Padovani has earned the right to leapfrog Kelly Haimona and lead Italy's backline against Ireland on Saturday.

Padovani will make his full Test debut in Dublin edging out the ponderous New Zealand-born Haimona, a player Italy have invested much time and effort in assimilating into their ranks with it must be said limited results.

Haimona slotted in for Italy's 36-20 defeat to Scotland in the third round, with promising youngster Carlo Canna having been ruled out through a muscle problem. Canna has remained sidelined for the Ireland clash, leaving Brunel to shuffle his resources and hand Padovani the chance to impress.

Scrum-half Edoardo Gori has been ruled out of the rest of the tournament with a rib cartilage problem, leaving Guglielmo Palazzani to step into the breach.

Zebre duo Padovani and Palazzani will form an inexperienced Test half-back combination at the Aviva Stadium, boasting just 20 caps between them, but Brunel is banking on the pair capitalising on their club partnership.

The evergreen Italian Captain Sergio Parisse will equal Martin Castrogiovanni's record of 118 Italy caps on Saturday, with the Azzurri still yet to taste victory in this year's Six Nations. Leicester Tigers hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini will miss the rest of the tournament with a right shoulder injury, with Treviso's Davide Giazzon stepping up to start in the front row.

Fit-again lock Quintin Geldenhuys takes a seat on the bench, with George Biagi impressing against France and England and deserves to start in the second row.

This is a must win game for an Ireland team in transition and despite a good opening match against France, Italy have been disappointing and I can’t see their fortunes truing around here. Ireland comfortable winners.

IRELAND 23 ITALY 9

ENGLAND v WALES

The tournament decider as predicted by your correspondent in the opening preview before Round 1.  The two best teams in the competition will meet at 4pm on Saturday with the winner odds on to win the 2016 title. With just two fixtures left, England lead the Six Nations with six points, having won all three of their matches so far, but Wales are a point behind in second.

England will be desperate to erase the memories of that dreadful defeat to Wales in the World Cup and will come confident into this match on the back of some solid displays and remaining undefeated.

The Welsh public were not impressed with the dreary performance against France and the Welsh management have been defending their record and pointing out that this was their fifth consecutive win over France.  Wales made hard work of the win but the final score line flattered France and Wales never looked in any trouble in putting Les Bleus to the sword in Cardiff.

Coach Warren Gatland has kept faith with an unchanged starting line up that accounted for France 11 days ago, although there are three changes on the bench. Scrum-half Rhys Webb, who was called into Wales' Six Nations squad on Monday following a six-month injury absence from Test rugby, is among the replacements, along with fit-again lock Luke Charteris and prop Paul James.

Ospreys loose head James takes over from 122 times-capped Gethin Jenkins, who is continuing his recovery from a calf muscle injury.

Charteris missed the France game due to a knee injury and was replaced by Wasps forward Bradley Davies, who continues in the second row alongside Alun-Wyn Jones. Cardiff Blues scrum-half Lloyd Williams drops out of the match day 23, together with Jenkins and Scarlets lock Jake Ball who suffered a knee injury in the Scarlets 24-15 win over Treviso in the Pro 12.

Rhys Webb, meanwhile, has not played for Wales since their final World Cup warm-up fixture against Italy last September. The 27-year-old scrum half suffered a serious foot injury during that match and was ruled out of World Cup contention. He returned to action last month, and is recalled to the squad after he has made three comeback appearances in Ospreys colours.

Eddie Jones names an unchanged XV for the visit of the Men of Harlech.  The combative Manu Tuilagi will be on the bench as one of four changes to the replacements.  The Leicester centre, has not played for England since June 2014 because of a groin injury and disciplinary issues.

Prop Kieran Brookes is also selected among the replacements with England's two other changes to the match-day 23 that beat Ireland 21-10 at the end of last month seeing Exeter hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie come in for Saracens forward Jamie George and the fit-again Joe Launchbury replace Courtney Lawes.

George will miss the rest of the Six Nations after rupturing a tendon in his biceps while training on Tuesday,

England have won their last two Six Nations encounters against Wales and let's not forget they could easily have won or drawn held that World Cup group match as they led by 10 points with half an hour to play.

While the XV Jones has picked may appear unremarkable - it is unchanged from the side that beat Ireland - there are only eight survivors from that fateful Saturday evening last September. Jones is definitely starting to make his mark on an England team, which has provided the few moments of brightness and attacking rugby in their uneventful Six Nations.

Do not expect any changes in Wales approach to the game against England they will continue with their focus on defence and expect a lot of direct running from Wales especially in the Ford/Farrell channel.

Upfront, Rob Evans and Samson Lee will have a solid battle against Marler and Cole and Scott Baldwin, who has the best lineout accuracy of any hooker in the competition so far will be wanting to ensure Wales retain possession.

There have been acquisitions about illegal scrimmaging from both sets of coaches this week, which have been frankly unnecessary, and this will be a key area for referee Craig Joubert to watch and police carefully during the whole 80 minutes.

I am a little surprised to see Bradley Davies retain his place in the 2nd Row but he played well against France and playing at Wasps, he will know the English players well and his fiery temperament and aggressive ball carrying give Wales some firepower with Charteris offering a different dimension off the bench.

The real battle will be in the back rows. England has played without a recognized open side for their matches so far and that could give Wales captain Sam Warburton some opportunities to upset the breakdowns. England and Wales both have outstanding No.8 forwards with cousins Billy Vunapola and Tualupe Falatau both having great tournament. It will be a real battle royal.

But who comes out on top in the battle of the two number eights will be dictated by which of them gets the most secure platform from their team-mates.

At the moment Wales' Faletau is the in my opinion the best number eight in world. He's a total all-round player, as shown by his incredible defensive tats in this Six Nations racking up 51 bone crunching tackles – a competition all time high total.

Billy Vunipola is a different sort of player, a big ball carrier who causes huge problems for defences - he gives England multiple attacking options from the gain line and gets them on the front foot. Vunipola is much more eye-catching, but while he is the best number eight carrying in midfield, Faletau is the best number eight overall - he has a wider skillset. Faletau is much more athletic and uses his feet to evade defenders, whereas Vunipola will draw on his power and weight to help him dominate the contact.

The key difference continues in how they play the game.

If Wales can stop Vunipola they will believe they go a long way to stopping England.  Blind-side flanker Dan Lydiate is likely to be given the responsibility. It is a decent-enough theory, but Lydiate will have to tidy up his tackling technique after being heavily penalised in his past two matches for failing to wrap his arms with his distinctive trademark chop tackle technique.

England has arguably the slightly stronger bench and Tuilagi could be a decisive factor as defenses tire in the latter 20 minutes or so of the match. He can run home any England advantage or create the chance that decides a tight game.

At scrum half, England must have been tempted to start Danny Care and Wales have the brute strength in their backs while England have more flair and flexibility with Jonathan Joseph and Anthony Watson.

This is a really hard game to call. This Welsh team looks stronger than the team which won on that evening in September but England are the form team and Eddie Jones will have them prepared well.  This fixture is a graveyard for your correspondent to call and my record of picking winners here isn’t the best of my predictive analytics. Much as I hate to call it, England to win at home in a narrow and tight game.

ENGLAND 17 WALES 13

SCOTLAND v FRANCE

What a difference a win makes! Scotland looked calm and secure in their win in Rome and never looked under any real pressure. Stuart Hogg was the clear man of the match and Scottish tails are up as they welcome Guy Noves rebuilt French team to Murrayfield.

Vern Cotter's men, who entered the Championship full of confidence after a narrow World Cup quarter-final loss to Australia in 2015, ended an nine match RBS 6 Nations losing sequence against Italy last time out, earning a precious win in Rome against the Azzurri.

Cotter makes two changes to the team, which defeated Italy.  Glasgow Warriors No. 8 Josh Strauss and centre Alex Dunbar have been drafted into their side to face France in Sunday's Six Nations match.

Strauss takes over from club-mate Ryan Wilson, who was a late replacement for David Denton in the 36-20 win over Italy. Wilson drops to the bench, with Denton out of the match-day 23.

South Africa-born Strauss, will start only his third Test for Scotland, and his first in the Six Nations, after becoming eligible just before last autumn's World Cup. He was drafted onto the bench in Rome after Wilson's promotion to the starting line-up and impressed in a late 12-minute cameo, having played 75 minutes for Glasgow two days earlier.

The other change sees Dunbar take over from fellow Warrior Mark Bennett, who is dropped, with Duncan Taylor moving from inside to outside centre. This is a significant change. Dunbar won the last of his 14 caps against Italy in last year's Six Nations before rupturing his knee ligaments in training. He missed the World Cup and two further injury setbacks recently delayed his return to Test duty until he was recalled to the squad this week.

Duncan Taylor's strong showings since coming into the side against Wales mean Mark Bennett - who was sent back to play for Glasgow last week end- is the one to miss out.

Scotland are aiming for a first home Six Nations victory for three years, a run stretching back seven matches since a 12-8 victory over Ireland in February 2013. They are also targeting a first win over France in a decade, their last victory a 20-16 victory at Murrayfield in 2006.

France looked very limited with little threat in the first half in Cardiff but their clever use of the bench and their enormous forward replacements can cause anyone problems.

Guy Noves makes six changes to the team that lost in Cardiff.  François Trinh-Duc will make his first Six Nations start since 2013 after being named at fly half. 

The Montpellier No.10 comes in for Jules Plisson, who drops to the bench.

Elsewhere in the backline a fit-again Wesley Fofana is named on the wing in place of Djibril Camara, while Scott Spedding gets the nod at fullback as Maxime Médard drops to the bench.

The final change in the threequarters sees the dangerous  Gaël Fickou back in the starting lineup alongside Maxime Mermoz, with Jonathan Danty left out after starting the first three games of the Championship.

In the pack Yoann Maestri is restored to the starting lineup after coming off the bench in Cardiff, while Yacouba Camara replaces the injured Antoine Burban.

On the bench there is just one new face, Sébastien Vahaamahina set for his first appearance in this year's Championship.

Scotland has an awful record against France and hasn’t won over Les Bleus since 2006 – a 10-year win drought. I think Scotland will start confident and it will depend what France team turns up in the first half. The French forward bench is formidable and if they get a half time lead over Scotland they could simply bulldozer them in the second half.

The half back combination of Machenaud and Trinh-Duc is exciting and with Fichou coming in at aggressive angles, this could open up the game and France could cut loose.

France are a team in transition and this games looks to be an exciting prospect with both team looking to layer down a marker ands show their respective coaches that they are building in the right direction for they future.

I don’t see a fairytale ending and France will win but only just…

SCOTLAND 17 FRANCE 21