Six Nations 2015 Round 1 – Under the Rose or Dragon’s Fire?

After last week’s brief tournament overview the real games begin tomorrow night with the titanic opening clash in Cardiff. Quite why the biggest game of the Six nations is on a Friday night beggars belief especially as the last trains to London finish at 9:30pm before the final whistle. Why is it we can’t organize things properly in the UK?

Anyway enough of that and on to this weekend’s games. Three great opening clashes, which will set the scene for the whole tournament.

WALES v ENGLAND

The game of the tournament starts on what will be a cold Friday night in Cardiff. Stuart Lancaster has ended the cold war of words before the match by exercising his right to have the Millennium Stadium roof open to apparently reduce the noise of the home crowd. I think Stuart needs to realize that it’s more about how the team on the field performs rather than the singing prowess of the crowd that will determine the final result.

This should be a titanic battle with Wales clear favourites.  These matches usually are not the close results people expect. As I stated last year – the average over the last 10 games has been 10 points. I do feel that tonight’s encounter will break the mould and will be a very closely fought game.

Wales start as favourites with almost a full strength side. Some late concerns on Jonathan Davies and Samson Lee seem to been shaken off so the Dragon’s start with probably the best line up. I am a little surprise to see Cuthbert keep his place but beyond that – its hard to argue with the rest of the team and Gatland and his coaching staff have rode their luck to have a fully fit squad.

As I discussed last week, England have not quite been so lucky but still have a very strong squad and are close to matching Wales in many areas. Lets take a brief look at the battles that could determine the match.

In the pack – the front row battle will be critical. Marler vs. Lee sounds like a Heavyweight prizefight and it probably will be. The returning Dan Cole will face up to his old friend and nemesis Gethin Jenkins. Jenkins – now 34 is still in outstanding form but scrimmaging has always been his weakest point. Hookers evenly matched with Hibbard and Hartley both impressive in their league form.  Honours even up front.

Second row – Wales clearly the stronger pairing. Dave Attwood has been magnificent but he faces the beating heart of the Welsh team in the emotional Alun Wyn-Jones and the aggressive Jake Ball. Advantage Wales.

Back row – again pretty even on paper but I fear England have the advantage here. Whilst Welsh Captain Sam Warburton is back to his brilliant best, Falatau and Lydiate have not been at the top of their game. Robshaw, Haskell and Vunipola are all in strong form and there should be an England advantage here.

Half backs – Ospreys’ pair Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar have the edge and as a club pair they know each other's game extremely well. George Ford has been exciting for Bath but seemed to struggle a little bit under pressure in big games at Bath. Youngs remains solid and reliable. Advantage Wales.

Centres – Roberts has shown great form recently but remains a predictable player for England to defend against. Jonathan Davies is not quiet at the top of his game but still the Welsh pair should have the edge over Joseph and Burrell. Another plus for Wales.

Back three – again difficult to call. Mike Brown was player of the tournament last year and remains the most dangerous runner from full back in World rugby. Halfpenny is back to form at Toulon. The massively overrated George North is still a defensive liability and Cuthbert has been out of sorts. Jonny May will challenge them for pace but Anthony Watson is a strange choice for me. When England has so many strong wingers – why pick a full back? The argument that someone is too good to leave out never work in rugby so even with the danger of Brown and May – a narrow advantage to Wales.

The secret for England will be to get their line out functioning early and keep it tight with the rolling maul. Scrum penalties will come to both teams but Wales more likely to infringe there. Expect lots of penalties and both Ford and Halfpenny will be busy tonight. I see no more than 1 try in the match and Wales advantages in the threequarters will see them manage to breach the England line.  A tight game with no more than 5 points in it.

Wales 23 England 18

ITALY v IRELAND

Away from the cold of Cardiff, the mid afternoon sunshine in Rome will see Ireland open their campaign against the Azzuri.  The Irish have picked a strong but experimental side with one or two real surprises for me.

The biggest surprise is the selection of Munster’s Ian Keatley at outside half. Keatley has never really impressed in the Green shirt and his performances for Munster this season have been underwhelming to say the least.  Joe Schmidt has gone for the club pairing with Conor Murray beating injury to join him in the half backs. I feel Keatley is an odd choice ahead of Leinster's Ian Madigan and one Italy must exploit if they are going to make any impact.

Outside the half backs, the Irish backs look dangerous and powerful. Simon Zebo returns on the wing and Payne and Henshaw are the form centre pairings with the reliable and dangerous attacking players Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney taking the final places. If they get the ball in the backs – then it could be goodnight Vienna for Italy.

In the forwards, the return of Sean O’Brien will be well received by all in rugby. He is a rugby fans player. All heart and muscle and someone who rather die on the pitch than lose a match. O’Mahony and the excellent Jordan Murphy join him in a strong back row. 

Captain O’Connell will lead the pack and Ireland doesn’t show any weak areas aside from Keatley. A tough proposition.

What of Italy?  Well coach Jacques Brunel is clearly focusing on winning home matches.  Italy are anxious to turn over a new leaf in the Six Nations after last year's wooden-spoon performance.

Italy will be without a number of experienced players for the opening encounter. Lock Quintin Geldenhuys is out for the entire tournament and he joins Italy are without injured centres Gonzalo Canale and Gonzalo Garcia, lock Marco Bortolami, and flanker Samuela Vunisa on a long injury list.

Zebre lock Biagi has been included in the starting XV alongside Treviso flanker Francesco Minto who is recalled to the staring line up.  The two players are the only changes made by Brunel in his starting line-up with respect to the side that lost 22-6 to South Africa in Padua in Italy's last autumn Test in November.

I am surprised that Thomasso Allen is on the bench with uncapped Treviso flanker Marco Barbini but expect to see both get some game time.  Sergio Parisse will continue to be the best forward in eth Six Nations but with a lack of strength in depth, iits hard to see Italy doing anything to upset Ireland. If anything, it will be Ireland’s errors that will give Italy any chances.

Italy 14 Ireland 28

SCOTLAND v FRANCE

I predicted Scotland would surprise a few people this season and this could be a challenging opening encounter for France.  An early evening encounter in a chilly Paris will not be what the doctor ordered and Scotland will be more disoriented with the news that France will wear Red shirts at home for the first time since 1959! Why I hear you ask?

Beats me – yet another strange decision from the FFR – perhaps they feel wearing Welsh red will instill the dragon’s heart and give them the edge. Again this season – a strange decision.

Scotland has picked a strong looking team with lots of new faces in a bold selection from coach Vern Cotter. Glasgow duo Finn Russell and Mark Bennett join London Irish back-row Blair Cowan as three players making their six nations debuts in the starting line up with another four debutants - Edinburgh scrum-half Sam Hidalgo-Clyne , Glasgow Warriors' Peter Horne, hooker Fraser Brown and loose-head prop Gordon Reid on the bench.

Stuart Hogg leads from full back forming a strong back there with the lightning quick Tim Visser and Tommy Seymour.  A very strong backs three.  At centres debutant Bennett is joined by Alex Dunbar, with Russell forming the predicted half back pairing with Graig Laidlaw.

In the pack, the Grey brother Jonny and Richie are paired together for the fourth consecutive time. In the front row of the pack, Edinburgh's Alasdair Dickinson will earn his 40th cap in a highly experienced front row beside club-mate Ross Ford and Euan Murray, the latter with 62 caps. Rob Harley, Castres number eight Johnnie Beattie and Cowan form a new combination in the back row.

 

For France – we see seven changes for the side that lost 18-13 to South Africa in Paris in November.. South African-born scrum-half Rory Kockott will make his first start for France after making three substitute appearances for Les Bleus during the November internationals.

Camille Lopez, retains the No 10 jersey and will form a new combination with Kockott as his Castres half back partner Remi Tales, who was first choice in last season's Six Nations, starts on the bench.

Scott Spedding, another South African-born player is retained  at full-back, while Stade Francais prop Rabah Slimani comes in at tight-head,

Samoa-born La Rochelle prop Uini Atonio is preferred to the Nichoias Mas, on the bench.

Toulon's Mathieu Bastareaud comes in at outside centre in place of the injured Alexandre Dumoulin, while La Rochelle flanker Loann Goujon could make his France debut if he comes off the bench. The experienced Huget and Fofana  will create problems fro Scotland in the backs and with Morgan Parra on the bench, France always be dangerous.

An unusual team but a very strong bench could be hit or miss for France. Hard to say although the ultimate decider could be who bottles it first. Lots of new faces on both teams and Paris is not normally the place for happy debuts.

I am excited by Russell and Laidlaw for Scotland and the dangerous back three but it will crucially depend on how much ball they get to run at France. The French team is such an unknown quantity its really hard to know how they will play. This could be the most exciting and difficult game to call of the whole weekend.

I think home advantage will tell and France will triumph.

France 28 Scotland 19