SIX NATIONS 2014 – THE FINAL FURLONG

So we reach the final weekend of what has been yet another exciting tournament. The Six Nations really is the greatest rugby competition on the planet and the local rivalries and intensity and passions of the encounters makes it simply unmissable.

With just the final weekend to go, your correspondent is feeling rather smug. With only 1 mistake – currently I have 11 out of 12 results predicted accurately.  Only Scotland’s unexpected win in Rome being the only hiccup on a perfect record. More surprisingly, the predicted gap between the teams – “the spread” in other words - is also close – only 10 points difference between the predictions and reality.

		RR Predicted Spread	Actual Match result Spread
Wales	Italy	20	8
France	England	3	2
Ireland	Scotland	23	22
Ireland	Wales	4	23
France	Italy	10	20
Scotland	England	27	20
Italy	Scotland	14	1
Wales	France	2	21
England	Ireland	3	3
Scotland	France	13	2
England	Wales	9	11
Ireland	Italy	34	39
TOTALS		162	172

So lets get down to the final weekend and see what is in store for us this week. Such is the tightness of the championship, that two replicas of the trophy have been made – one in Rome and the other in Paris.

Ireland must start as favourites to win the trophy as they sit top of the table with a points difference of 81 versus 32 for England and 3 for France. Quite simple really, Ireland win and it’s their trophy. Lose and England will win assuming they do not fall on the final banana skin in Rome. Lets see how we call the final matches.

ITALY v ENGLAND

 England will want to finish strongly and wipe away the memories of a poor game versus the Azzuri at Twickenham last year where England really only just squeaked home. This year – it is almost unthinkable that England will not win comfortably. They have really come of age this season. Putting both Ireland and Wales to the sword in consecutive matches.

Danny Care and Mike Brown have been the clear stand out players of the tournament and there is a growing confidence in their young guns too. Burrell and Twelvetrees had their best game as a partnership against Wales out-playing and out thinking their far more experienced Lions rivals. Nowell and May are still learning their trade but look confident and fearless.

The English pack, whilst not the rock of previous years; managed to see off the challenges of the more highly rated packs of both Celtic nations and a deserved Triple Crown last weekend really was a crowning moment for this young side.

For Italy, they really struggled without Parisse last weekend in Dublin. The rout that followed was predicted but it was disappointing to see how badly they have faded as this tournament ahs gone on. It is not that long ago that they excited and surprised many people (me included) with a string showing against Wales. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I think its just showed how poor Wales are right now rather than a sign of Italian greatness.

Parisse returns to captain the side this weekend in an Italian side showing a surprising 3 changes. I would have expected more given how they threw the towel in to the ring in Dublin. It is hard to see them raising their game against an England team with solid momentum.

England will dominate the game with strong defence and some exciting attacking but it will be more of a grind than pretty champagne rugby. The Stadio Olympico will be smothered in White and expect a high scoring game.

Italy 9 England 30

Wales v Scotland

 Poor Wales looked devoid of flair and ideas against a well-drilled England side. The team really looks lost and don’t seem to have grasped that the world has moved one. Warren Gatland looks about as much in touch of reality as Clive Woodward’s ill-fated Lion’s coaching experience – not recognizing how things have changed really shows poor leadership and a lack of ideas.

The famed “Warrenball” tactics of Wales have been found out and the new referee interpretations aren’t helping. For the game plan to work, it requires Wales to physically dominate their opponents and grind them down. The tactic of aimless down-the-throat kicking didn’t work against Kearney and Ireland and was another dismal failure against England.

Only Leigh Halfpenny’s metronomic boot saved Wales from an even greater humiliation at HQ and his absence this weekend could lead to Wales facing a very tough challenge this weekend against a Scotland team growing in confidence.

Six changes for Wales – two forced and none of them are really inspiring that things will change. Liam Williams comes in for Halfpenny at Full Back at a time when Wales are crying out for the flair and invention for James Hook. Like Trinh-Duc in France, Hook just doesn’t seem to register with the Welsh coaches and the selection of Williams is a real cop out in my view.

There are changes at halfbacks where Dan Biggar finally gets a chance to replace the lost little boy that Rhys Priestland has become in the red jersey. Mike Philips returns to replace the injured Rhys Webb who was another to have an extremely poor game last weekend after a lively debut against France. They can't possibly do any worse than the "Rhys" pairing and I expect Biggar to act far more intelligently with his kicking and Mike Philips - under pressure for his place - needs a big game.

In the pack, Gethin Jenkins is retained despite his second yellow card last weekend to earn his 105^th cap. He really has been a victim of some interesting refereeing interpretations and after a week of claiming he has been victimized, the Welsh coaches felt they owed him another chance and I applaud that decision. He is joined in the front row by two Scarlets – Ken Owens and Rhodri Jones. Owens right gets the start after Hibbard’s scud-like line out throwing accuracy but how on earth Rhodri Jones gets picked ahead of his club mate Samson Lee beggars belief. Hibbard and Adam Jones are rightly dropped after inconsistent form in all 4 matches to date. Luke Charteris returns ahead of the promising Jake Ball – another contentious change that makes little sense, while the failing Dan Lydiate again amazingly retains his place ahead of Justin Tipuric.

I really fear Wales will blow it with this team. Too safe, too boring and a missed opportunity to change direction. One has to fear for the future of this side.

What of Scotland? The Win over Italy was followed up with a strong game against France that Scotland will be kicking themselves that they didn’t win. How much psychological damage that causes remains to be seen, and coach Scott Johnson makes 3b changes with the unlucky Johnny Beattie out injured replaced by Ryan Wilson and two changes at winger with Max Evans and the Edinburgh flyer Dougie Fife making his debut in place of Tommy Seymour and Sean Lamont.

Wales have only lost once to Scotland in their last twelve meetings but Scotland seem to always make a fight of it at Cardiff. Expect Wales to scrape out a win but it will be far from convincing.

Wales 20 Scotland 16

France v Ireland

 Well I have to eat my words. Last week, I criticised Brian O’Driscoll of not being the player of old and he goes out and singlehandedly rips Italy apart. Will we see a fairy tale ending in Paris with O’Driscoll bowing out his long and distinguished career with a final championship?

If they do, then it will be an amazing turnaround from the Ireland, which spectacularly fell apart just 12 months ago. Coach Joe Schmidt has brought in new blood and new coaching methods and the results are very impressive. Just the narrow loss to England blemishing a potential grand slam this season.

Can Ireland raise their game and win in France? The history is against them with only one win in 42 years in Paris.  Just one change for Ireland with Peter O’Mahony returning in the back row after his hamstring scare kept him out of the last match. There are significant changes on the bench, which shows Schmidt is not a prisoner to history and the recall of Ian Madigan somewhat of a surprise on a bench which shows invention and options should they be required.

France were again pretty awful away from home in Murrayfield and lady luck gave them the narrowest of wins against the run of play. Still you have to take your chances and France certainly did that. For this final match in Paris, Louis Picamoles is recalled to the side, which shows four changes. Remi Tales is preferred to the stuttering Jules Plisson at Fly Half, Dimitri Szarzewski is recalled at hooker and the exciting Gael Fickou gets an outing at Centre.

Can France win and shatter Irish dreams? The form doesn’t say so with such poor form shown in the last two matches but Paris is a difficult place to win and France always have at least one good game in them every championship. The battle in the scrums and breakdowns will be key and here Ireland probably have the edge. In the backs, Huget has been very impressive all season and they back three can all attack a lose kick and make you pay for silly mistakes. 

I am going to controversial and stick to my original feeling that the luck of the Irish will run out and they will once again fail in Paris.

France 23 Ireland 22

England’s championship and champagne this season and deservedly so!