Six Nations 2014 Week 3 - Decisive Encounters

Halfway point through the 2014 Six Nations and Rugby Raconteur has hit the dizzy heights of 100% accuracy in results predicted although not in points scored or points difference.  Having said that, there have been some noticeable surprises in both the team performances and the results to date.

Ireland have had two impressive home wins. Victory over a stuttering Scotland was expected but the Irish surprised everyone with the ease of their convincing win over a tired looking Wales. Coach Joe Schmidt has impressed everyone with his technical vision and ability to alternate game plans – in deep contrast to the one dimensional “Warrenball” approach of Gatland at Wales. 

France are also unbeaten – after a narrow win over England, they were more impressing in beating the much improved Italy team in the last match. France are still not entirely convincing in all departments and we have yet to see if their Gallic flair will be carried over and continue on the road.

But lets not get carried away yet. The fixture mix giving both Ireland and France two back to back home games may not reflect the actual true playing strengths of either team.

Elsewhere, England are growing in confidence and building nicely through the tournament. One cannot be anything other than impressed by the way Stuart Lancaster is blooding new players and building a real team feeling in the Red Rose camp. Can it continue against the men in green?

Lets review this weekend’s fixtures:

Wales v France

Wales were just comprehensively beaten in every department against Ireland. They looked jaded and devoid of a plan B. The excuse that they have played too much rugby frankly doesn’t wash and it could simply be that Gatland and his coaching team have run out of ideas and don’t feel able to do a course correction with the current playing squad.

The Welsh forwards were comprehensively beaten in all areas by Ireland.  You simply cannot lose two attacking line outs against the throw in the Irish 22 and get bullied around the breakdown and hope to compete effectively. The lack of fitness of Gethin Jenkins was clear and Adam Jones just is not the force he was at tighthead prop. To be honest, I am disappointed that Gatland has not been more adventurous with his selections for the French match and that Adam Jones has been retained. The hair bear has been a massive servant for both Wales and the Lions but its time for him to hang up his boots. He is not going to last until the World Cup and Wales need to be bringing on some of their promising youngsters in the same way they did before the last World Cup.

Both Jenkins and Warburton had impressive games for the Blues last weekend and are both retained. Amazingly Dan Lydiate is retained in the back row despite two very poor games. He should have made way for Justin Tipuric as the Welsh back row looks much more explosive with Tipuric and Warburton on the flanks rather than the static defensive oriented Lydiate. Taulupe Faletau needs a solid game after a bitterly poor showing in Dublin and the Welsh line out will welcome the return of Charteris at the expense of the lightweight Andrew Coombs.

Mike Philips has looked poor ever since he moved to France and is rightly dropped in favour of the lively Rhys Webb. Dan Biggar must be very disappointed to miss out on selection and to retain Priestland at Fly Half when you have choices available beggars belief to me. Elsewhere as predicted in my pre-season brief; Wales finally put George North in the Centre with Jamie “Dr. Jaw” Roberts. Roberts was the one Welsh played to stand up in Dublin and I am very excited to see these two leviathans together in the Welsh midfield.

As for France, they have looked impressive with the ball in hand. Huget has stood out as one of the players of the tournament so far and this has timed itself well with the return of form of Wesley Fofana who was excellent against Italy.  The forwards have stood up well to both England and Italy – probably the two strongest packs – and along with Louis Picamoles. Yannick Nyanga has been very lively  in the back row. France centre Mathieu Bastareaud is retained at centre having recovered from a shoulder injury and France make one other enforced change with Flanker Bernard Le Roux, who suffered concussion in the 30-10 win against Italy, replaced by Racing Metro team-mate Wenceslas Lauret.

If France get their back line moving and secure good possession and the victory is there for the taking.

Wales must have a solid scrum, win their line outs and retain possession through the phases to have any chance against France. The French will concede lots of penalties and the off colour Halfpenny will need his kicking boots to give wales a chance.   Wales won’t play as badly again but I fear the lack of change in their line out will be an Achilles heel. I really don’t know what to call here. If France wins, then a Grand Slam is within their sights. If Wales lose, then I fear further embarrassment against England and even possibly Scotland in the final match.

We don’t know which France will turn up. Wales have a dreadfully poor record in Friday night games losing their last two in the Six Nations – England in 2011 and France in 2010.  Too close to call but I think Wales will scrap home.

Wales 19 France 17

Italy v Scotland

Wooden Spoon match in Rome and Italy will be looking to poor one further agony for Scotland. I really don’t know what is going on with the selection decisions in Edinburgh. Kelly Brown selected as Captain and then discarded after the Dublin debacle. Richie Grey dropped for the match day 23 and then re-instated for this match, and now the excellent Dave Denton is incredibly dropped for this crucial encounter. It defies all selection logic and despite keeping the English score down at Murrayfield, Scotland ended pointless with a toothless attack and few players enhancing their reputations.

Ross Ford pays the price for two poor games and is rightly dropped. Grey will add more experience to the pack and the recall of Johnny Beattie at No.8; whilst – I believe is a retrograde step; at least adds a player with experience and leadership.  Scotland will try to keep Italy at bay in the forwards and try to get their line out more consistent and find some ray of optimism to build on but its hard to be optimistic given the abject form shown so far in the tournament.

As for Italy, two away trips have been a difficult start for them but they have impressed many with their strong showings against both Wales and France. Sergio Parisse has been in outstanding form and the Italian pack - whilst perhaps not the scrummaging force of other years; has been solid and workmanlike. They will be sweating on the fitness of Castrogiovanni and Bergamasco.

What has been different has been the fact that Italy has discovered a back division.  Tomasso Allen has been a revelation at Fly half with strong performances in the backs from McLean, Iannone, Campagnaro and Sarto. Italy looks much more like a “proper” 15 man team rather than the 10 man rugby of old.

It is difficult to see Scotland raising their game and Italy blowing theirs. Italy by a large margin. More heartache and a wooden spoon for Scotland.

Italy 28 Scotland 14

England v Ireland

Last and by no means least – the main event – England v Ireland. Rugby Raconteur has backed England to win this year’s title and despite the (predicted) narrow defeat in Paris, I see no reason to change that viewpoint. The England performances so far have been a work in progress.  The new starters Nowell and May have had impressive games and look like great finds. Billy Vunipola has looked very powerful at No.8, Mike Brown has bossed games from full back and Danny Care has been the stand out England player, growing in maturity every match and providing fast service to Farrell and the three-quarters.

In the Centres, Burrell has grown in confidence every match and has been a strong performer in every game.  Billy Twelvetrees was much more confident against Scotland after a poor game against France.  I am pleased to see the exciting George Ford get a bench call up and he can add another dimension to the play in the latter stages as Ireland tire.

In the forwards, the loss of Dan Cole is a big one, as his replacement David Wilson has not shown good form or fitness this season. England need a solid scrum and a metronomic line out to secure quality ball and then kick their penalties and get their exciting back line into the game. The tactical kicking game will be critical and the reliable Mike Browns will need to be on top form.  If England can secure their own possession and kick well, then the game is as good as won.

So to Ireland, they comprehensively beat Wales by out thinking them. They simply kicked Wales back to their own half of the field, defended well, and then took their chances. Their back row of Peter O’Mahoney, Chris Henry, and Jamie Heaslip dominated the breakdowns against Wales and Ireland were unstoppable with their rolling maul when on attack.  That does not mean they are not beatable. One win over a one dimensional Wales does not a champion make. Ireland were poor in the first half against Scotland. They only came alive second half when Scottish heads were down and stamina fading.  If the England pack gets in their faces then they could struggle.

Jonny Sexton has been supreme in controlling games and Rob Kearney has been back to top form. In the front row Cian Healy and Mike Ross have been very solid and Ireland also have two other impressive props in Martin Moore and Jack McGrath – all of whom could give England a torrid time in the scrums.

Twickenham holds no fear for Ireland who have had narrow wins in 2004, 2006, and 2010. England need to stick to the basics and hope the Twickenham crowd can carry them home. England by 3 points.

England 29 Ireland 26