With the passion and the intensity of the Six Nations only 7 days away, below are my usual musings on the winners and losers of this greatest of sporting tournaments. I feel the form book will count for nothing and with the World Cup now only 18 months away, it will be very interesting to see how the Northern hemisphere challenge is building up.
The Autumn internationals didn’t really give us any form guide with many key players missing through injury and the Heineken Cup has shown strong form for France and Ireland with the other three home nations bringing up the rear. The disappointing standard of last year’s competition will be a distant memory as I feel we have the most exciting and close championship for many years with little to choose between the main protagonists. Let’s look team by team at their chances of victory and possibly the elusive Grand Slam.
ENGLAND
Despite an abysmal Autumn Series and the poor form of English clubs in the Heineken cup, England have a lot to be positive about. You never write off the English and the Rose will once again prove the critics wrong. Johnson has an embarrassment of riches behind the scrum with more choice and strength in depth here than most of the others. Will he go with the NZ centre combination of Flutey and Hape? Hipkiss and Tait also are in top form and have strong claims. Monye is always a threat with the ball with Ashton and Armitage offering solid back three talent and steel. Leicester’s Ben Youngs looks a real talent at scrum half and with Jonny back banging over the kicks, England will be very strong assuming they can gain and retain the ball. Ironically given the traditional England strength in the pack, there are real doubts in the forwards. Front row looks a challenge. The stuttering Borthwick looks increasingly like a lemon of a captain and Haskell, Moody and Croft haven’t shown the form of last season so far. The over-rated Easter looks slow and ponderous and it will be interesting to see how they develop as the games go on. England could be 1st or 5th in the championship depending on how the early games go. A decisive win over Wales could be followed by domination over Italy, and the settling of old scores over the Pikies and the sweaties with a finale at England’s 2nd home – Stade de France. Possible Grand slam as England are a confidence team who will get stronger after an early win. Lose to Wales and more heartache will follow against Ireland and Scotland and 5th place. I don’t see England blowing it and at 4-1 for the outright title they look a good bet. A very comfortable win over Wales will see England brimming with confidence and a Grand Slam.
Prediction: 1st (Grand Slam).
FRANCE
Bridesmaids again for Les Bleus. Despite great form by their club sides – they have the banana skin of Scotland away to get over. Assuming that goes their way then France will see off Ireland in Paris, get over the ridiculous Friday evening fixture in Wales to go into the season finale on equal terms with England. France have an abysmal record against England in recent years and they will not relish facing an unbeaten England side in the final game. Wilkinson will kick them to defeat and another championship pondering what could have been for the French.
Prediction: 2nd
IRELAND
The Irish flattered themselves last season in a poor championship. A stuttering win over England in Dublin but you wouldn’t take away the Grand Slam prize from the Irish – they were the best team in a poor competition. They will once again be feisty and unpredictable but the fixture draw doesn’t favour another championship. O’Driscoll still looks as good as ever, but the pack is starting to look a little bit like “dads army” again. The Irish have a habit of staying too long with the same players. Kearney and Bowe look very strong and capable but not sure the Irish know who to put with BoD. Earls had a shocking Lions tour and still hasn’t proven himself. Darcy looks at the end of his career, likewise the overrated O’Gara is definitely past his best. Difficult away trips to Paris and HQ won’t worry the Irish but the luck won’t be with them. Three wins leads to mid table.
Prediction 3rd
WALES
No form in the Autumn and the club sides not playing well. Wales are struggling to adapt their natural urge to run the ball with the defensive demands and tactical kicking of the modern game. The welsh will bring all their usual hwyl and passion but to little avail. Too many injuries and poor form mean Gatland would be better blooding new players and building for the future rather than trying to hang on the past glories. Byrne will be the rock at the back with the dazzling feet of Shane and Ha’penny on the wings. Jamie Roberts has looked completely out of form other than one display for the Baa Baas. Will he rise to the challenge or fluff it again? Shanklin is at the end of his career and Bishop and Jonathan Davies have yet to convince in the shirt. I would like to see Hook given his chance again at inside centre with the excellent Dan Biggar forming a new half back combination with Richie Rees. Instead my betting is we will see Cooper and Stephen Jones. Why? Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones will cause front row problems for anyone. Ryan Jones is back at the top of his game but who will be with him in the back row? Great servant Martyn Williams has been for the Welsh, he is definitely past his best. The one dimensional Powell had his 15mins of fame and offers little in imaginative back row play. The young Warburton looks like they perfect replacement for Williams but will be get picked? 10 mins a game off the bench won’t build a World cup player. Wales have beaten England 3 times on the bounce and had a memorable win over England 2 years ago at HQ. England won’t screw up again and England and Ireland away will be too hard for the Welsh who will also be hit with France looking for their third win. Hard to see Wales beating anyone other than Scotland and Italy at home. Public pressure will grow on Gatland and it will be a hard championship for us. Definitely over-rated at 4-1 with the bookies.
Prediction: 4th
SCOTLAND
A fantastic win over Australia was followed with the old Scotland against Argentina. Definite improvements in Scottish rugby and Andy Robinson will eventually prove his many doubters wrong and be recognised as a great coach. Unfortunately it won’t be at this championship. Glasgow and Edinburgh have both made significant progress and the new laws and style of game favour the dour, flair-less Scottish rugby style. Scotland will challenge France and that still looks like their best chance of any early upset. England must surely overcome the Scottish hoodoo and the jocks have an abysmal record away in Wales and Ireland. Difficult to see them beating anyone other than Italy but they will be close in most matches. A building year and another year of progress with little results to keep the SRU mandarins and Princess Anne happy. A win over France and England and it could be a very different story. It’s always hard to predict but I just don’t see a consistent killer instinct to put teams away.
Prediction 5th
ITALY
The loss of Parise is a massive hammer blow. He was arguably the best forward in last year’s championship and the loss of him will really rip the soul out of the Italians. The Bergomasco brothers are definitely on the decline and it is very hard to see Italy winning anything yet again. I am not a fan of having them in the Six Nations. Other than nice weekends in Rome every other year, they have brought nothing to the championship. For all the talk of progress and getting better every year – they will threaten no one this season. Their cup final comes on 27th February with the match with Scotland. Their only chance of any win this campaign. Robinson’s men will sweep them side in a close fought game and its wooden spoon again for the perennial cellar dwellers.
Prediction: 6th (Wooden Spoon)
Just seven days to go….can’t wait!
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