Guinness Six Nations 2023 – Round 3 – Strikes, Setbacks, and Scores

We reach the half way point of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations with Ireland and Scotland showing their calls and retaining 100% records. Ireland were ruthless and unrelenting in smashing France whilst Scotland showed the Calcutta Cup win was no fluke with a comfortable win over beleaguered Wales. 

England bounced back to defeat Italy by 31-14 - the exact score accurately predicted by your correspondent. 

Wales sank to a new low after their record home defeat to Ireland with an another record defeat in Edinburgh. 

 

With 5 predictions correct from the first six matches - lets look forward to this weekend’s encounters.

 

Italy v Ireland

 

Ireland will be looking to march on towards a possible Grand Slam title when the Six Nations returns in Rome on Saturday.

Andy Farrell's side conquered France in a potential title decider before the fallow week, whereas hosts Italy suffered a second straight defeat at the hands of England.The odds are stacked against the home side, yet they will have taken encouraging signs from both of their defeats so far.

In Round 1, the loss to France saw them in the lead heading into the final 20 minutes, and then squander late penalties which could have nudged them back in front of the defending champions for what would have been a famous victory. A trip to Twickenham one week later was not quite as closely-fought as England avoided a banana skin thanks largely to their 19 unanswered points in the first half.

Nonetheless, the Azzurri once again looked dangerous at times and, on another day, made have had more than the two tries they managed having beaten 41 defenders over the course of the 80 minutes - by far their highest figure in any Six Nations match.

Indeed, the 28 defenders beaten in the second half alone was just one short of the previous full-match record set against Scotland last year, so there is a very real threat from Italy when they have the ball in hand.

Such encouragement from losing efforts will only last so long if they keep on losing, though, and while few will be expecting them to pick up their first victory against the world's top-ranked side on Saturday, next month's home meeting with Wales - who they memorably beat last year - looks increasingly like a Wooden Spoon decider.

From statistically the toughest test of this year's tournament to the easiest, Andy Farrell will nonetheless demand the same level of performance from his side as that which they produced against France in their last outing.

Appropriately billed as a probable title decider, with the favourites and world number one side taking on the defending Grand Slam champions and world number two, Ireland stepped up to the plate with a thrilling 32-19 victory in Dublin earlier this month.

The result was Ireland's biggest win over France in the Five or Six Nations since 1975, only the third time that they had run in four tries against Les Bleus for a bonus point in the Six Nations era, and their 13th successive home win, ending France's record 14-match winning run in the process.

That said, Garry Ringrose's try in the 71st minute gave the final score a slightly more one-sided look than the reality of the game, with both sides producing a Six Nations classic that hung in the balance for the vast majority of the 80.

Indeed, only one game in Six Nations history has seen more metres gained in total than the 1,334 that the world's top two sides managed in Dublin, with France's showdown with England in 2015 just about retaining its crown.

It is the French Six Nations crown which Farrell and his players have their eyes on now, though, and it would be an enormous shock if they did not continue their march towards it this weekend.

Ireland will be without their talismanic captain Johnny Sexton as he continues to recover from the groin injury he sustained against France last time out.

James Ryan will captain his country in the absence of Sexton, who still needs only eight points to surpass his predecessor Ronan O'Gara as the leading points scorer in Six Nations history, while Ross Byrne comes in at 10.

 

That is one of six changes made by Farrell as he rotates his squad for the trip to Rome, with Craig Casey coming in at scrum-half and Bundee Aki replacing Stuart McCloskey at inside centre.

 

The three changes in the forwards see Ronan Kelleher start at hooker, Iain Henderson feature in the second row and Jack Conan come in at number eight.

Tadhg Beirne has been ruled out for the remainder of the tournament, while Conan's introduction will see Peter O'Mahony drop to the bench and Caelan Doris shift to the blindside.

 

There are also a trio of new faces amongst the replacements, with Dan Sheehan, Ryan Baird and potential Six Nations debutant Jack Crowley all coming in to the matchday squad.

 

Italy have made three changes to their starting XV for this match, with Tommaso Allan one of those to drop to the bench as Paolo Garbisi returns at fly-half.

The Montpellier man returned from a sprained knee ligament to feature for his club last week, and is thrown straight back into the Italy side for this one. 

 

Pierre Bruno also comes back in on the wing, with Luca Morisi dropping to the bench and Tommaso Menoncello moving inside to 12.

 

The only change in the pack sees Simone Ferrari return in place of Marco Riccioni at tighthead, while on the bench Giovanni Pettinelli comes in for the injured Jake Polledri. 

 

Italy have only ever beaten Ireland once in the Six Nations, and that came a decade ago when they ran out 22-15 winners at the Stadio Olimpico.

 

The other 22 meetings have all gone the way of Ireland, including each of the last nine, and on seven of those nine occasions Ireland have put more than 45 points on the board.

 

That was true when they met at the Aviva Stadium last year too as Farrell's men ran in nine tries en route to a 57-6 triumph, while their last visit to Rome saw them win 48-10 in 2021.

 

Across their all-time history, Ireland have won 30 of the 34 meetings, with Italy taking the remaining four.

 

With all of the attacking talent on show, this should be an entertaining game - unless, of course, you are an Italy fan. The home side should take confidence from elements of their showings against France and England, but Ireland are another step up from those two again and, unlike on week one, their opponents have now had time to gel and get accustomed to each other.

 

Italy are not a team anyone will risk underestimating this year, but Saturday's match should be a fairly straightforward win for the favourites.

 

Italy 10-48 Ireland

 

 

Wales v England

 

It’s been a tumultuous week in Wales with the sword of Damocles being held over the Worst Run Union with the nuclear option of a players strike risking the postponement of the game against England. Only last minute back peddling and intense discussions have found a temporary solution to the players grievances and the game is now formally back on.

 

It was sad to be in this situation but we’ve been here before. In 2019, Wales Six Nations campaign was massively disrupted by the announcement of team mergers with “Project Reset”. Now just 4 years later - nothing has been learned and the same old narrow self interests exist to tarnish and damage the game in Wales.

 

The tumult and turmoil off the pitch in Welsh rugby has so far been mirrored on it in the Six Nations, though, with Warren Gatland's side losing their opening two matches, whereas England picked up their first win of the Steve Borthwick era at the expense of Italy last time out.

 

Branded a "laughing stock" by their own captain Ken Owens due to the disarray behind the scenes at the WRU of late, Wales will hope to be able to shift their focus firmly back to the rugby when they welcome their neighbours England to the Principality Stadium.

 

Allegations of sexism, racism and misogyny within Welsh rugby's governing body had already seen Gatland's second stint as boss get off to an inauspicious start, before the payment row between the WRU and the players became the latest off-field soap opera to overshadow a proud nation's national sport.

 

With both issues now having been solved or at least addressed, Gatland will be desperate to focus on matters on the pitch, with his side not faring too well on that front either.

 

Had the threatened strike gone ahead then Wales would have been left with zero points after three games, with the 2021 Grand Slam champions not just winless so far, but also pointless having failed to pick up a bonus point in either match.

 

That leaves them propping up the table after two games, with the fewest points scored, the most points against, the fewest tries scored and the joint-most tries conceded in this year's competition so far.

 

The fact that they are playing this game means that they will at least have the chance to improve those worrying statistics, although the away game against Italy in Rome next up is already looming large as a possible Wooden Spoon decider.

 

Defeat to Ireland on the opening weekend was largely expected, even factoring in the return of the competition's most successful coach in Gatland, but their loss to Scotland last time out would have stung particularly badly.

 

Wales had snuffed out positive Scottish starts to the Six Nations in both of the previous two years under Wayne Pivac, but this time around they succumbed to their biggest-ever Test defeat at the hands of their northern neighbours.

 

Owens scored Wales' only try as they were well beaten and, while two Scottish tries in the final 10 minutes added gloss to the eventual 35-7 scoreline for the hosts, it was a miserable Murrayfield experience for the visitors as they opened a Six Nations campaign with back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2007.

 

In addition to shipping points too freely, Wales have also been particularly wasteful in attack, averaging less than one point per entry into the 22 in both of their games so far.

 

On the bright side, they face an English team that has looked alarmingly open in defence and susceptible to teams running at them with the ball in hand.

 

Duhan van der Merwe's stunning solo try in the defeat to Scotland at Twickenham in Round 1 was the clearest example of this, but England also missed a whopping 41 tackles in their win over Italy last time out - their highest-ever tally in a Six Nations match.

 

New defence coach Kevin Sinfield has no doubt been working overtime on that issue during the two-week break between matches, but head coach Steve Borthwick does at least have a first win under his belt courtesy of that bonus-point 34-14 home triumph over a potential banana skin in Italy.

 

Most of the damage was done in the first half as England scored 19 unanswered points before the interval, and while Borthwick will be the first to admit that there is more to come from his side, they are at least now on the board in the Six Nations and sit third - above defending champions France - heading into game three.

 

England head coach Steve Borthwick has made one change to his starting line-up that downed Italy 31-14 last time out, with Anthony Watson starting on the wing while Courtney Lawes is set to make his international return off the bench.

 

Towering full-back Freddie Steward retains his place in the back-three, as does Max Malins, with Watson looking to add some X-factor on the left wing.

 

Ollie Lawrence is rewarded with another start after a blockbuster performance against Italy and continues his midfield partnership with the experienced Henry Slade.

 

Skipper Owen Farrell is preferred to Marcus Smith at fly-half again the week and will look to build on his half-back combinations with Jack van Poortvliet.

 

There are no changes to the forward pack, with Alex Dombrandt continuing at number eight alongside Lewis Ludlam and Jack Willis, who shone against Italy in the back-row.

 

Ollie Chessum gets another start alongside the rock-solid Maro Itoje in the second-row while Ellis Genge, Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler look to perform in another good front-row performance.

 

Mako Vunipola and Dan Cole join hooker Jack Walker as front-row options for Borthwick, whilst both Lawes and Ben Curry come onto the bench as attractive forward replacements.

 

Smith remains on the bench this week alongside scrum-half Alex Mitchell and the exciting Henry Arundell for the Cardiff Test.

 

Wales have brought back several experienced players for their Six Nations game against England with 9 changes to the team who failed in Murrayfield.

 

Warren Gatland has selected an experienced outfit with Leigh Halfpenny, Taulupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric and Alun Wyn Jones returning to the starting XV.

 

Louis Rees-Zammit is also back after recovering from injury and he partners Halfpenny and Josh Adams in the back three.

 

I am excited by his choice of centre combination as Joe Hawkins is joined by Mason Grady, who is making his Test debut. Grady is a superb talent following his brother Cory Allen to win a test cap. 

 

At half-back, Dan Biggar has correctly been dropped to the bench, which means Owen Williams comes in and is alongside Tomos Williams. Biggar has been so poor in the past two matches he had to go. Picking Owen Williams is a real gamble though as none of his previous 3 caps has been at outside half.

 

Up front, Wales have gone for the front five which started their first Six Nations clash against Ireland as Ken Owens is partnered by Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis in the front-row, while Adam Beard and Jones are at lock.

 

The back row sees Christ Tshiunza continue at blindside after impressing against Scotland, but there is no Jac Morgan, who is out of the 23.

 

Tipuric takes his place on the openside and Faletau is back at number eight, while Tommy Reffell provides back-row cover on the bench.

 

Reffell is joined among the replacements by Bradley Roberts, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Kieran Hardy, Biggar and Nick Tompkins.

 

Another victory over Wales this weekend would keep their hopes alive of ending Borthwick's maiden campaign with the trophy, particularly with matches against the two pre-tournament favourites France and Ireland to finish their campaign.

 

It would take some effort to topple the world's top-two ranked sides in succession, particularly with their final match coming away to Ireland in Dublin, but victory this weekend would at least keep them in the mix heading into the second week off.

 

Victories in Cardiff have not been easy to come by for England in recent years, though, so even with Wales embroiled in so many off-field troubles, Saturday's contest will be far from straightforward for Borthwick's men.

 

England are looking for their first win in Cardiff since 2017, having lost on their two visits to the Principality Stadium - the most recent of which saw them well beaten 40-24.

 

Eddie Jones's side did get revenge for that loss by winning 23-19 at Twickenham last season, though, when Alex Dombrandt scored the match-winning try.

 

In total, England have won 15 of the 23 Six Nations meetings between the two sides, but at the Principality Stadium they have only won six of their 14 visits, losing the other eight.

 

Across their all-time head-to-head record, England edge the victories 66 to 60, with 12 draws in that time too.

 

We may be two games into this season's tournament, but major question marks still hang over both teams. Will Wales improve now that the off-field issues are hopefully behind them? Can England's victory over Italy be used as a true measuring stick?

 

Wales winger Rees-Zammit will be licking his lips at some of England's defending so far in this tournament and he could do some damage on Saturday, but it is also impossible to ignore the fact that Wales are bottom of the pile in just about every scoring stat which matters so far.

 

It should be a great tussle between the two old rivals, but ultimately I am backing England to come out on top.

 

Wales 24 England 31

 

France v Scotland

 

Gregor Townsend’s Scottish charges have been the surprise package of the Six Nations so far. It shouldn’t be the case, considering the talent they have in the squad, but their incredible ability to disappoint when backed to perform has been the bane of Scottish rugby. 

 

It appeared as though that would once again rear its ugly head in the opening round against England but, as the game reached its crucial stages, there was a different look to the team.

 

They showed remarkable composure to soak up the pressure and then land the killer blow with a fabulous team score, resulting in a 29-23 triumph. At the final whistle there were joyous scenes but it was certainly more muted this year, knowing that they have not backed up these big results in the past. There seems to have been a positive mentality shift within the squad and that was demonstrated by their dismantling of Wales a week later.

 

Nevertheless, those challenges pale in comparison to what awaits in Paris this weekend. France may not be at the level they were last year, but they still have the power and the talent to blow Scotland away on Sunday. The task facing the Bravehearts is pretty daunting. France have won 5 of their last 6 matches and their 10 home matches. 

More significantly – they have won 12 of their last 13 home matches against Scotland but Scotland did win their last away match against France. Scotland were superb in their 29-23 win over England in round one. They were arguably even better, thrashing Wales 35-7 in round two. While the match was tight for large periods, Scotland always looked in control and that dominance came to the fore in the final 20 minutes.

 

It will be a significant test for the visitors but, if they can come through this, Townsend’s charges can dare to dream of a first Six Nations title and, potentially, a Grand Slam.

 

While Scotland look a better side this year, they are also boosted by the form of the French, who have gradually declined since their Grand Slam success last year. Although they won all three Autumn Nations Series encounters in 2022, none of the performances were exactly convincing. All good sides can have dips so it did not leave us concerned, but their efforts so far in the 2023 Six Nations certainly has.

 

France are fourth on the Six Nations table with one win and one defeat. As the defending champions this is basically a final if they want to retain any hope of defending the Six Nations.

 

While France are still a very strong side, they have not been at their best recently. Ranked No.2 in the world behind Ireland, France will still hope they can win their remaining games and someone can beat Ireland.

 

Obviously, discipline was an issue against Italy and that disrupted their game, but they aren’t quite getting the purchase in either set-piece or carry at the moment. They almost look ‘underpowered’, which is odd to say about a XV full of quality athletes, and are therefore unable to dominate the gain line. There is still plenty of time to go until the World Cup but they need to start putting the pieces in place ahead of their home tournament. 

 

They were better against Ireland but it always felt like Andy Farrell’s men were in control, despite the odd moments of brilliance from the likes of Damian Penaud and Antoine Dupont. It is not time to panic for Les Bleus – far from it – but now would be a good moment for them to get it together and show their supporters they are moving in the right direction. If not, and Scotland claim a victory in Paris, the pressure will begin to ramp up.

 

There is plenty of history behind this fixture, dating back to Scotland and France’s first encounter in 1910 (a 27 – 0 win for the dark blues at Inverleith) with their first clash in Paris coming a year later (a 16 – 15 triumph for Les Bleus. This match will be the 100th meeting of the Auld Alliance. 

 

France definitely hold the advantage with 57 wins to Scotland’s 39 – plus 3 draws. It’s notable that much of the Scots’ success was front-loaded, with 31 of their triumphs arriving in the amateur era.

 

Since 2016 though, Scotland have managed 5 wins against the French (from 10 attempts). That’s the same number of victories that they had managed in the previous 26 years (28 matches). Significantly, four of those successes have arrived during the Townsend era.

 

Townsend makes juts one change to the team, that humiliated Wales. Flanker Hamish Watson replaces Luke Crosbie. Watson is back to full fitness after a concussion against New Zealand.

 

Crosbie is not on the bench, with Sam Skinner drafted in as one of six forward replacements - and that means no place in the 23 for Chris Harris.

 

Scrum-half Ali Price returns to the matchday squad having missed out on the wins against England and Wales.

Defending champions France beat Italy in their opener but were then defeated by Ireland in round two of the championship.

 

Scotland are unchanged in the back division once more with Ben White and Finn Russell poised to continue at half-back.

Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones resume their centre partnership while Stuart Hogg has recovered from a head injury assessment following the victory over Wales to start at full-back.

 

The returning Watson will line up with captain Jamie Ritchie and Matt Fagerson in the back row.

 

The France team is not available as we go to press but Jonathan Danty could return for France after missing the first two rounds of the tournament due to injury. France will be without Uini Atonio, who has been three weeks for an illegal tackle during the defeat to Ireland last time out.

 

It feels like there are almost two different French sides playing. On one hand, there is the loose, expansive team that can supply tries from anywhere, such as the worldie by Damian Penaud off the back of one loose kick by Ireland in Dublin. If the French identify a disjointed opposition line and they think it’s on then they will attack from anywhere – 23 offloads (the most in this year’s Six Nations) attest to that.

 

On the other hand, there is the Shaun Edwards coached, none shall pass (except maybe the Irish), regimented defence built on hard work rather than talent that is undoubtedly the foundation of the side’s philosophy. When they have possession if they don’t like the look of the opposition defence; if their structure isn’t in place; if they’ve gone three phases and not progressed – the ball will be put in the air and there is an expectation that their own defensive prowess can win the ball back in a more advantageous position or unstructured situation.

 

France are superb at home and Scotland are in great form. This should be a cracking battle, but while I believe France will have enough for the win, I feel that Scotland can get within a single score but not enough to triumph.

 

France 27 Scotland 19 

 

 

 

GUINNESS SIX NATIONS 2023 ROUND TWO - TITLE DECIDING WEEKEND?

Round one of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations had the rare occasion of all three home teams losing. Ireland coasted to an easy win over a hapless Wales. Warren Gatland had a massive wakeup call with the size of the task in front of him to turn the Men of Harlech around in a Timely manner to compete at the World Cup.

Likewise, Steve Borthwick’s bold new vision for England fell at the first hurdle with Scotland winning their third Calcutta Cup in a Row – the first time since 1972!  Scotland were ferocious in the tackle and contact and England never looked comfortable. 

 

France had a shock with a narrow win in Rome. France conceded 18 penalties and major improvement is required ahead of their trip to the Aviva Stadium. The Italians stood up and were counted. Wales, in particular; must be quaking in their boots at the thought of having to go to Rome to potentially avoid a wooden spoon.

 

After all that drama – round two promises some even more spectacular matches.:

 

Ireland v France

 

First up is the clash of the titans in Dublin.  Ireland will be wanted to break a significant hoodoo as in the three meetings with France during Andy Farrell's reign, all three have ended in defeat.

 

It's now four years since the last Irish win against Les Bleus, a 26-14 win in the penultimate round of the 2019 championship, against a French side that looked to have finally bottomed out after years of decline.

 

Ireland’s comfortable win in Cardiff firmly re-established them as Six Nations favourites. Their bonus-point start to this campaign, and in particular the opening half of yesterday's 34-10 win against Wales feels like a real statement.

 

The 80 minutes was far from perfect, and their ill-discipline and kicking game in the third quarter gave Wales some real opportunities to come back but Ireland’s defence stayed resolute before Liam Williams yellow card eventually sealed Wales fate. 

 

Ireland head coach Andy Farrell has made one change to his side as Dan Sheehan has been ruled out for the visit of the Grand Slam champions after suffering a hamstring injury, with Rob Herring taking his place in the starting XV.

 

The rest of the team is unchanged from last week’s win in Cardiff, while Rónan Kelleher returns to the replacements’ bench after missing last week’s win with a hamstring injury.

 

Finlay Bealham and Andrew Porter resume propping duties, with Porter, James Ryan and replacement loosehead Dave Kilcoyne all in line to win their 50th caps at the Aviva Stadium.

 

Ryan and Tadhg Beirne are paired again in the second row, with Iain Henderson held in reserve, while it's an unchanged back row of Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris.

Conor Murray starts at scrum half having reportedly been a doubt in recent days, while Johnny Sexton captains the side after missing the last two meetings with France due to injury.

 

Stuart McCloskey is again preferred as the centre partner for Garry Ringrose, with Bundee Aki among the replacements, while Mack Hansen, James Lowe and Hugo Keenan complete the side.

 

For France – that game in Rome will be hard viewing. France will be relieved to get this one out of the way and take a bonus-point win with them, but at the back of their minds there will be great concern over the number of recent matches where they’ve had to play their get out of jail card. Ireland, Wales, Australia, and South Africa last year all saw wins but ones that might have gone either way right down until the end.

 

An unusually ill-disciplined display from Les Bleus saw them haemorrhage 19 penalties, mostly around the breakdown, and led to them receiving their first yellow card in 14 matches. 

 

As with their match against Japan in November, France had to rely upon bench impact and a moment of great finishing from Matthieu Jalibert to get them home. Romain Taofifenua, Sekou Macalou and Jalibert all had moments of difference – Jalibert’s try was as a result of a wonderful pass and take from Taofifenua and Macalou made one vital penalty winning turnover effort in the 72nd minute with Italy in full flight down the left hand side.

 

The players they replaced – Gregory Alldritt, Paul Willemse and Romain Ntamack, are all mainstays of the French starting line-up but all three looked way below their best – there’s little chance of Alldritt and Willemse losing their places but the debate in France over the fly-half berth is sure to reignite with the country divided over who of Jalibert or Ntamack is the better game controller.

 

Given this background, it was surprise that has Head coach Fabien Galthie has retained faith in the side who narrowly edged Italy in Rome last weekend with an unchanged starting line up.

 

Galthie has drafted in back row Francois Cros and scrum-half Baptiste Couilloud as replacements for Thomas Lavault and Nolan Le Garrec, respectively.

 

Farrell's side have now won each of their last 12 home games, and another victory this weekend would see them set a new national record of 13 on the bounce, although it is worth noting that France were the last team to beat them in Dublin - doing so in the 2021 Six Nations.

 

Even so, Ireland's longer record of 21 wins from their last 22 home games is a formidable one which should pose a serious threat to France's own record winning run of 14 Tests on the bounce.

 

Italy had their chances to record a famous triumph even after Matthieu Jailbert's try, though, earning three late penalties which yielded zero points in the closing stages of the match.

 

Indeed, that the Azzurri got so close to pulling off one of the all-time great Six Nations upsets was largely down to penalties, with France conceding a whopping 18 throughout the match - a very un-Shaun Edwards-like tally and one France have not surpassed in a game in this tournament for 20 years.

 

Italy conceded 11 penalties fewer than their visitors - one of the biggest penalty differentials ever seen in a Six Nations match - and if the same happens in Dublin then it would take a miraculous attacking performance to counteract that.

 

The importance of France improving their discipline is further underlined by the fact that four of their last five wins have been by margins of just five points or fewer, meaning that one penalty leading to a try or converted kick could spell the end of their unprecedented winning run.

Of course, the other way of looking at such a record is that France know how to grind out victories in tight matches, and Dublin will hold no fear for them having triumphed there on their last visit two years ago - albeit behind closed doors.

 

Ireland have won 18 of their last 20 matches themselves, though, and if they are able to exploit any French ill-discipline then they could well become the first team since Scotland in March 2021 to beat Les Bleus.

 

The lineout may also be a particular area that Ireland look to target having enjoyed a 100% success rate and stolen three opposition throws last weekend, while only Wales had a lower success rate on their throw than Fabien Galthie's side.

 

Just as it has been tipped to be this season, last year's meeting between these two sides ultimately proved to be the title decider, and it was one France won 30-24 in Paris.

 

That was Les Bleus' third successive win against Ireland, having won just one of their previous nine meetings before that, and their current run includes a 15-13 victory on their last trip to Dublin, meaning that Ireland are winless in this fixture since 2019.

 

France have only ever won back-to-back away games against Ireland once before - in 2005 and 2007 - but they have won away to Ireland in six of the previous nine Rugby World Cup years.

 

Overall, France lead the head to head with 59 wins to Ireland's 35, with 12 French wins, nine Ireland triumphs and two draws coming in the Six Nations era.

 

The three away sides all secured bonus-point wins for the first time in Six Nations history last weekend, but we can see that away glory coming to an end in Dublin.

 

It is a tantalising showdown between the best two teams in the world, both of whom are on record winning runs and are expected to put in improved showings from the opening weekend.

 

For France to raise their level - both in terms of performance and discipline - enough from the Italy scare to beat Ireland away looks like a tough ask, though, whereas Ireland had their match against Wales won inside half an hour in Cardiff.

 

The last three meetings have all gone the way of France, but all by single-figure margins, while France's recent victories have been narrow ones too, so we can see Ireland finally ending the visitors' long winning run in what is sure to be a fiercely-contested showdown.

 

Ireland 25 France 21

 

Scotland v Wales

 

Wow - have Scotland ever played better at Twickenham? 

 

The Calcutta Cup was an enthralling victory for Scotland and their third in a row against England, something that has not been done since 1972, before Gregor Townsend was born and when the UK was still coming to terms with decimal currency. 

 

They were worthy winners, and with a bonus point too. Two tries from Duhan van der Merwe - one of them an absolute stunner - and one apiece from Huw Jones and Ben White were the headline acts but that barely does justice to a remarkable afternoon. 

 

The game ebbed and flowed and at times it looked as if England would mark new coach Steve Borthwick’s first game in charge with a win. The home crowd sang long and loudly, with Swing Low booming round the ground, but Scotland were always in touch and Finn Russell was creative and controlled, outsmarting England’s dual playmakers, Marcus Smith, and Owen Farrell. The stand-off also contributed nine points with three conversions and a penalty.

 

The challenge for Scotland is can they build from this fantastic start to the championship.  We’ve been here before as Scotland have failed to produce two performances on the bounce. But the times they are a changin’ and Gregor Townsend and his team will have watched and analysed Wales’s toothless performance in Cardiff and with a homecoming to Murrayfield – they will be very confident of continuing their momentum against Wales. 

 

Warren Gatland will need to address the lack of discipline and soft penalties which were the key factors behind Wales’s heaviest Six Nations home defeat for 22 years.  The 34-10 loss to Ireland at home shredded any fairy-tale script that might have accompanied Gatland's return for his second stint as Wales head coach.

 

Gatland's team will head to Edinburgh next weekend for an appointment with resurgent Scotland, knowing that their tournament hopes and ambitions are already under intense scrutiny and while Wales have won on six of their last seven visits to Murrayfield, Scotland's memorable Calcutta Cup triumph against England has dramatically increased their degree of difficulty.

 

Ireland made nine entries into the opposition 22 and came away with four tries and two penalties - 34 points. In stark contrast, Wales made 11 entries but scored just one try. Therein lies the tale of the game in a nutshell. This was a brutally one-sided contest, one which laid bare the scale of the task Gatland has undertaken

 

Gregor Townsend has made just one change to his Scottish XV for Saturday's match, with Zander Fagerson having recovered from a hamstring injury to start at prop.

 

WP Nel drops to the bench as a result, while Simon Berghan is left out of the squad entirely in the only personnel change to the 23.

 

That means that there is still no place for Hamish Watson, despite his return for Edinburgh before the Six Nations began.

 

For Wales, Warren Gatland has made some substantive changes in the pack, with former captain and the most-capped player in international rugby history Alun Wyn Jones among those left out of the squad entirely.

 

Another experienced campaigner in Justin Tipuric has also been dropped from the 23, while Taulupe Faletau has to settle for a place on the bench. Tipuric and Faletau paying the penalty for less than stellar performances against Ireland.

 

Captain Ken Owens, Adam Beard and Jac Morgan are the only forwards to retain their places, and the latter will make up an inexperienced back row alongside Christ Tshiunza and Tommy Reffell, a trio that has won just 20 caps between them.

 

Reffell and Tshiunza will join lock Dafydd Jenkins in earning their first Wales starts, while Wyn Jones and Dillon Lewis both return at prop in place of Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis.

 

By contrast, the backline remains unchanged for Gatland, including centurions Dan Biggar and George North, and week one try-scorer Liam Williams.

 

Wales have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 13 of their last 15 Six Nations matches against Scotland, including in both of the last two years to halt early Scotland momentum from an opening-weekend win.

 

That run includes six wins from the last seven visits to Murrayfield too, most recently a 25-24 triumph in 2021 which saw Wayne Pivac's side come from behind to edge to victory, before going on to win the whole tournament.

 

Scotland have to go back to 2017 for their last home win over Wales, while their 11 Six Nations home games against Wales in total have yielded just three victories compared to seven for the visitors.

 

This promises to be a fascinating contest between a Scotland side packed with talent and buoyed by their win over England against a relatively inexperienced Welsh side looking to get back on their feet under Gatland.

Scotland have so often fallen at the second hurdle in recent years, with Wales their chief tormentors in those times, but this time around we are backing the home side to come out on top by a narrow margin.

 

Scotland 21 Wales 16

 

 

England v Italy

 

Like Warren Gatland, Steve Borthwick also had a tough introduction to coaching in the Six Nations. 

 

England will have a number of concerns. The lack of gain line dominance cost them so much momentum. Rucks were won quickly, but Test rugby is about getting behind the primary defence and into scramble situations. It’s clear they’re short of a carrier or two, but that’s an easy fix if it’s identified.

 

England spent four minutes and 44 seconds in Scotland’s 22, yielding three tries to Max Malins (2) and Ellis Genge, but much of that time was spent battering into a wall of blue without any form of return. 

 

Conversely, Scotland’s visits to the red zone lasted only one minute and 44 seconds, yet saw them cross four times, a remarkable efficiency rate, but one probably enhanced by the powerful running of Van der Merwe.

 

The difference in carry was noticeable. England went into this game with the aim of fast ruck ball (which at times they achieved) but short on big carriers, putting an immense workload on Ellis Genge and Lewis Ludlam. 

 

The unforced errors will also be a mighty concern. This weekend, they’ll put them down to bedding in and a new regime, but should they occur again next weekend against a promising Italy, the result might just be a little more embarrassing.

 

England also need to show substantive improvement in open field tackling. When they show the highlight reels of this remarkable era of Scottish dominance, future folk will ask why England didn’t just haul down Scottish runners. Once a Scot made a line break, England seemed to panic and accept that a 30, 40, 50m solo try is the only outcome.

 

As I go to press the England team has not been named. Henry Slade is back in the England set-up, after he was named in the squad earlier this week having recovered from injury. A hip problem kept him out of the Scotland clash, but the Exeter centre is back in contention and has returned to the group along with London Irish wing Henry Arundell, who has overcome a foot injury.

Lots of debate on the Owen Farrell/Marcus Smith axis in midfield so it wouldn’t surprise me for Borthwick to drop Smith and return Farrell to Outside half.

 

Ben Youngs, Ben Curry and Anthony Watson - all of whom saw the field against Scotland - were all omitted from the slimmed-down 29-man group named by Borthwick on Wednesday.

 

For Italy, the promise shown at the U20 age group over the past few seasons is finally coming to fruition. Italy’s 29-24 loss showed they can compete against the best and with a bit more composure in a dominant final 10 minutes, they could have claimed a momentous victory over France.

 

Victories against Wales and Australia in 2022 has provided a lift to Italian rugby that was in full view as they went toe to toe with the Grand Slam champions, who were crushed by their high penalty count.

Full-back Ange Capuozzo burst on to the scene last year and his electric attacking skills, typified by his slick try against France, are the focal point for a team that is proving worth of a place in the Six Nations.

 

Italy have never beaten England and as such the hosts are clear favourites. However, Italy are an improving outfit and it would be no shock to see them ask more questions of this England side at Twickenham than they have done before. 

 

History is certainly not on the Italians' side, though. These two teams have faced off 29 times with England winning every one of those encounters. What's more, the total points scored by both teams in the 16 matches played between them at Twickenham stands at 720 for England compared to 190 for Italy. 

 

Steve Borthwick will say all the right things in the build-up but privately knows this is a must-win game, even this early in his tenure as England head coach, and the sort of match his side should be winning by a commanding margin if they have serious ambitions of a Six Nations title, especially after their opening-game loss against Scotland. 

 

The most points Italy have mustered at Twickenham is 23 way back in 2001. They surely have to do better than that to have any chance of causing an upset.

 

Last week’s results weren’t a disaster for Borthwick but losing to Italy for the first time in history would be, even with the obvious improvements the Azzurri are making. Back-to-back home defeats against Scotland and Italy was unthinkable only a few years ago but is a possibility this weekend. However, there is no escaping that England quite simply have the ability, test match experience and home advantage in this game; those three things will surely be enough to secure victory. The Italians should seek to make it as uncomfortable an afternoon as possible for their opponents and see where that leaves them in the latter stages of the match.

 

Italy threatened to pounce on an incredibly ill-disciplined display from France, who gave up 18 penalties. England will surely not be so generous, while Italy’s awful record at Twickenham, and against England generally, remains a mental hurdle.

 

A fast start will be important for Borthwick’s side to ensure that no nerves build in the stands, and England showed enough in attack against Scotland to suggest they can produce that. 

 

I’m struggling a bit with this one to be honest. History points towards a comfortable win for England but the opening weekend suggests this match could be anything but. There may well be some sticky moments, but the first win of the new era should come in relatively comfortable fashion.

 

It would not come as a surprise to see Italy keep this one competitive for the entire 80 minutes but I’m still going with England to run out winners by a reasonable, but not massive score difference.

 

England 31 Italy 14

GUINNESS SIX NATIONS 2023 - COUNTDOWN TO THE WORLD CUP

The 2023 Guinness Six Nations starts this weekend. This year’s edition of rugby’s greatest championship comes with the added weight of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France looming in the minds of players and coaches alike.

It what should be a crucial year for all the teams, this year’s competition should be a cracker. We have two new National coaches, two Unions in disarray and numerous injuries, expect some cagy encounters but who will emerge victorious?

 

Let analyse the runners and riders:

 

IRELAND

Andy Farrell’s Ireland had a sensational year in 2022, complete with a Triple Crown, an historic series win against the All Blacks in New Zealand and autumn wins over the Springboks and Wallabies.

The team is looking to buck the unwanted trend of peaking between World Cups and enter the year as the best-ranked side in the world. The Six Nations will be an important tournament to continue their momentum

Ireland approach what could be a defining season for them.  Even more defining than 2019 and 2015 and 2011. 

 

The Six Nations always brings with it the first hints of spring, even when it's in the autumn of a World Cup cycle. If Ireland do go on to break their quarter-final glass ceiling at the World Cup later this year, their performance in this year's championship will largely be forgotten, even if a solid showing over the next seven weeks goes a long way to making that happen.

 

The Irish never like being favourites, they much prefer being underdogs. Ireland will head into this year’s competition with a spring in their step and supreme confidence.  Could this be the easiest championship ever for the men from the Emerald Isle?

 

Ireland, ranked number one in the world, are on the back of a memorable year. Ireland coming from 1-0 down to record a momentous 2-1 series win in New Zealand last summer having scored more tries than anyone else in last year’s Guinness Six Nations. They then rounded off 2022 by beating South Africa and Australia.

 

The idea of peaking too soon is something Irish rugby fans live in eternal fear of, but performance isn't as simple as flicking a switch

 

If Andy Farrell’s men win every game in this year’s tournament it won’t exactly be a surprise to anyone, but they could win it with consummate ease. Usually, the victors have a couple of tight and tense games before emerging triumphant. Last year France were significantly tested by both Ireland and Wales but ultimately came through to take the title and a first Grand Slam in 12 years.

 

Dynamic forwards such as Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris have been central to the shift in approach while there is a comforting familiarity to a backline still including the likes of Sexton, Garry Ringrose and Bundee Aki.

 

Clinical, ruthless, relentless – call it what you want, Ireland have become a winning machine over the last 12 months.

 

Their attacking edge is increasing all the time and they also have what it takes to grind matches out when not playing well, as Australia found in the autumn.

 

The strength in depth in the pack is arguably unmatched in this year’s Championship and will form the basis of their title bid.

 

Rarely do you get a team that is so strong they easily blow away all before them, but to be perfectly honest, I can’t see any opponent getting within seven points of the Irishmen over the next two months. 

 

Not only are they ranked as the world’s number one team but they also have a match schedule that is strongly in their favour and that their closest challenger, Fabien Galthie’s France, have had several injury disruptions including Jonathan Danty, Peato Mauvaka, Cameron Woki and Gabin Villiere leading into the Six Nations. 

 

They open the tournament against Wales, a team that will be better under Warren Gatland but one that shouldn’t get close to Farrell’s charges, before they head back to Dublin for tournament deciding game with France. Away matches with Scotland and Italy follow, two sides the Irish should dispatch with relative comfort, and they then finish against an England squad in transition at the Aviva Stadium. Who can stop them? 

 

If there is any weak area in their game plan - the attacking game which cut through teams in late 2021 and for the first half of 2022 looked blunt at times in the Autumn Nations Series wins against South Africa, Fiji and Australia. 

 

Against South Africa and Australia in particular they struggled to get real width on the ball, with the Springboks continually reading their movements, aside from a period in the early stages of the second half. The fact that they prevailed in arm-wrestles on both of those occasions pleased Andy Farrell. Farrell will be well aware of these momentary lapses and he will have no doubt been working hard to address this in the past two months

 

 

Ireland to win the tournament at cantor.

 

Prediction: FIRST(Champions)

FRANCE

 

In 2022, France were crowned the champions and Grand Slam winners - their first title since 2010. They went on to remain unbeaten through the year and they have beaten all tier-one teams over the previous two seasons. The formidable French are still riding a wave of momentum. Were they to make history and record back-to-back Grand Slams – a feat not yet achieved in the Six Nations era, with France the last to do it back in 1997 and 1998 – France would also equal the world record for successive victories in men’s international rugby at 18.

 

Les Blues are rightly considered by many to be the front-runners once again, as Fabien Galthie’s men continue to look to build their strength, culminating in an expected World Cup ‘Triomphe’ on home soil. Les Bleus trailed for just 13 minutes across the entirety of the 2022 Championship, even if they were pushed hard for periods in every game.

Now, with daunting trips to Dublin to take on the world’s number one side, and Twickenham, the only fortress they have yet to conquer under Fabien Galthié; this will be a huge test a matter months out from a home World Cup.

 

With a few injuries to key men, notably lock Cameron Woki and centre Jonathan Danty, France’s depth will be tested.

 

With a powerful pack, scintillating outside backs and perhaps the best young half-back pairing in the world, France have all the ingredients of a top-quality outfit.

 

Under Fabien Galthié, a hallmark of their game has been their tactical discipline, rarely playing expansive rugby in their own half, but then lifting the tempo as soon as there is an opportunity. With the likes of Damian Penaud, Gaël Fickou and of course, Antoine Dupont, they have players who can create something out of nothing, and Les Bleus are also incredibly clinical, rarely needing more than three or four phases to convert a chance into a try.

 

If the star attractions in Dupont, Jalibert, Ntamack and co, can avoid any unexpected injuries, and play with the same ‘savour faire’ flair which brought them the title last year, then stopping them will be a tall order. 

 

The latest summer tour of Japan saw France return as expected victors but continued to impress throughout the Autumn. A memorable Marseille victory over South Africa established expectations that France are the best International rugby side today. 

 

It says a lot about France that even without their second and third choice hookers behind Julien Marchand – perhaps the world’s best in his position – there was still no place in the squad for Camille Chat, who you sense would be welcomed with open arms by the majority of international coaches. 

 

It is a similar story in other positions, even the centres where Galthié is missing Danty, Arthur Vincent and the sadly retired Virimi Vakatawa, and yet can still call upon an outstanding duo in Gaël Fickou and Yoram Moefana. Other than Antoine Dupont, and the incredible  Gregory Alldritt, you get the feeling that they could probably cope with the loss of any player.

 

It is hard to find too many weaknesses in a team that has won 13 matches in a row and beaten all comers in that time. Still, even if they scored at least 30 points a match in November, they did not look quite as fluent in attack as had previously been the case. 

 

The fact that Romain Ntamack was playing after no rugby for two months may well have been a factor, but France will certainly hope to pose more of a threat with ball in hand this year.

 

South Africa also highlighted a frailty defending the rolling maul that coach Karim Ghezal will have been working hard on in the intervening months.

 

France open up with a tip to Rome before travelling to Dublin to face Ireland in round 2. Then its Scotland at home, a tricky trip to Twickenham before the final match again at home to Wales.

 

I think Dublin could well be a dress rehearsal for a World Cup Quarter final against Ireland. It’s hard to bet against France but the Aviva Stadium will be an absolute fortress and a narrow defeat will follow - in what may be the closest contest of the competition.

 

Wins over Scotland and Wales will put France is a strong position if Ireland slip up and Twickenham could be another tough test for Les Bleus.

 

Prediction: SECOND

 

WALES

The people of the principality will be breathing a sigh of huge relief seeing that the Pivacaust has finally ended. The dreadful coaching and lack of leadership shown by coach Wayne Pivac simple had to come to an end.

 

After Wales won just three Tests under Pivac-19 last year, with a number of horrendous defeats included dispiriting home losses to Italy and Georgia. The final act of Pivac-19 demonstrated just how out of depth he was against Australia. 

Leading the Wallabies by 21 points, Wales imploded in the final 10 minutes. Pivac made the incredible decision to take off his two most experienced players – Alun Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric with 5 minutes remaining and replacing them with two one cap wonders. Truly inept game management and absolutely astounding. Australia rallied and scored the inevitable try to pip Wales and ned the catastrophic period of Pivac-19’s reign. 

 

Cue the return of Warren Gatland who unquestionably has the Midas touch, and there is no doubt that Wales’ odds for a tough opener against Ireland in Cardiff on February 4 have shortened substantially since his arrival, but a title challenge would certainly be a tall order.

 

When Wales beat South Africa in Pretoria last summer, the odds on Gatland returning as head coach less than six months later would have been greater than 100-1. But the New Zealander is back for a second stint in the job, having seen Wales win four Six Nations titles, three Grand Slams and reach two World Cup semi-finals when he was last at the helm between 2008 and 2019. Gatland has little time to try and turn things around. If anyone can, though, then it is him.

 

And the Welsh regions seemed to have rallied with some impressive performances. Ospreys impressive run of results in the Champions Cup and Cardiff Rugby in the Challenge Cup have shown Wales have the talent, but just as optimism started to happen, the WRU has been rocked by the huge scandal of sexism and an unacceptable work environment leading to the resignation of CEO Steve Phillips. 

The toxic culture of the Worst Run Union has finally been exposed and have rocked the game to its core in Wales. Charlotte Wathan’s bravery in exposing the horrific comments made to her in her role as general manager of women's rugby  just showed how rotten the management of the Un ion is. Add to that the letter from (Cardiff Rugby director) Hayley Parsons and a painful BBC documentary showed that little has been learned since  Amanda Blanc’s resignation form the Professional rugby Board in. November 2021. 

 

The WRU's governance structure has been under scrutiny for some time, with many believing the community and professional game in Wales should be run completely separately. Currently, Wales' 300-plus community clubs elect the chairman of the WRU, hold the majority of seats on the board, which elects the CEO and ultimately decides how much money should be spent and where.

Complete change is required.

 

Back to the playing side, and Warren Gatland has rung the changes in the coaching department. No Shawn Edwards to return and the WRU blocked the re-appointment of Robert Howley so Gatland has turned to Alex King and Mike Forshaw as attack coach and defence coach respectively.

 

They join Jonathan Humphreys (forwards coach) and Neil Jenkins (skills coach) in the Wales senior men’s coaching line-up.

 

Alex King, a former fly-half who won five caps for England, previously served as Wales attack coach for the 2017 Six Nations while Gatland was on secondment to the British & Irish Lions. King spent most of his playing career at Wasps before a move to Clermont Auvergne, where he later transitioned into coaching helping the French side to their first ever Top 14 title.

 

King also aided Northampton Saints’ Premiership title win in 2014, before a move to Montpellier. His most recent role was as attack coach for Gloucester, a position he held for two seasons.

 

Mike Forshaw joins Wales from Premiership Rugby side Sale Sharks where he has been defence coach since May 2013. Wigan-born Forshaw, a former dual-code player who was capped by England and Great Britain in rugby league, worked with Warrington and Wigan in Super League and had previously spent three years coaching with Connacht including helping the Irish province make its Heineken Cup debut in 2011.

 

In his playing career Forshaw represented Wigan, Wakefield Trinity and Leeds Rhinos before a short stint in union with Saracens. He returned to league with Bradford Bulls before finishing his playing career with Warrington Wolves.

 

Gatland has a lot of work to do but knows the modern Welsh rugby landscape better than most. There is a great deal of external noise he will have to navigate, with the WRU under pressure from almost all angles.

 

Looking at the squad, there is some serious talent in the back-row and in the backline. The tools are there. Gatland just needs to pick up the jigsaw puzzle and fit the right pieces as quickly as possible.

 

Taulupe Faletau was one of the shining lights for Wales in that  indifferent 2022 and boasts immense quality on both sides of the ball. The Cardiff man carried tremendously well throughout and made an impressive number in each game he was part of. One would expect Faletau to be a dead-on starter as Gatland will look to find balance around the star with the plethora of options available at flank.

 

Ken Owens has been handed the captain’s armband by Gatland, taking over from Dan Biggar, who skippered the side last season, and will have the massive task of setting the tone. The hooker is vastly experienced with 86 Test caps for Wales and will be looking to build on his impressive form in the Autumn Nations Series.

 

Captaincy or not, Dan Biggar remains a key player for Gatland as the obvious first-choice fly-half. The Welshman kicks well out of hand and at goal, is handy on attack and is a decent defender. Wales claim to be looking to elevate their attack this year, and the Toulon man will be key. If Biggar plays well, Wales will always have a better chance in the Six Nations.

Christ Tshiunza is one of the hottest prospects globally after regularly putting in solid performances with Exeter Chiefs in the Premiership and Champions Cup. The giant forward stands at 1.98 metres tall and 112 kilograms, adding some much-needed physicality to the Welsh pack. Gatland has plentiful options at flank, so it remains to be seen where and how he will use Tshiunza. There is always the possibility of shifting him to the second-row to add further power to the tight five. Nevertheless, the starlet is ready to have an extended run at Test level regardless of position and could become a powerhouse for Wales.

 

Dragons winger Rio Dyer burst onto the Test scene with a fantastic try against the All Blacks on his debut in Cardiff. He has continued to show good form for his club side with his electric pace and sound ball skills. With Louis Rees-Zammit expected to be out for the opening two rounds, Gatland may rely on Dyer for out-and-out pace in his backline.

 

Tommy Reffell has been ripping it up in the Gallagher Premiership and will fight with Jac Morgan and Justin Tipuric for the back row places. Joe Hawkins and Mason Grady will be in contention for start at centre with Nick Tompkins and George North. 

 

Wales will inevitably get better under Gatland as he uses his vast knowledge of rugby in the country to steady the ship and make a charge up the table. The squad looks good, and there is a host of talent in most positions, with flank being the strongest by a long way. Their tight five is probably the most under pressure area of the team, and if Gatland can get that area firing, all the other components will benefit greatly.

 

Wales have brilliant half-backs and some truly fantastic runners outside of them, so it will be fascinating to see how Gatland chooses to elevate his attack. 

 

Wales start their campaign with a visit from the world’s top-ranked side, Ireland, on February 4 before a trip to Scotland in Round Two. After that, England head to Cardiff in Round Three before Wales visit Italy and France for the final two rounds.

 

They have three away games out of the five, with the Blue teams all away, which is not ideal. However, Gatland will relish playing in France ahead of the World Cup later this year.

 

Several players were part of Gatland’s 2019 World Cup team and will be accustomed to how he operates. Meanwhile, the rest of the squad will be lifted by the arrival of a new coach, as it often is in sport. Ultimately, there is the unknown of how quickly the head coach can line the stars for Wales. With Ireland and France streets ahead of anyone else in the competition, the third spot is really a battle between England and Wales. 

 

Prediction: THIRD

 

ENGLAND

England come into 2023 and the Six Nations in some degree of turmoil, both on and off the pitch. Noise around issues such as the club game, tackle height laws and so on have provided a backdrop of blame, subterfuge and criticism to the governing body, the RFU, who also took the bold decision of firing their most successful coach in terms of win rate in history.

 

When Eddie Jones took over as head coach of England in 2015, he did so under the weight of lofty expectations. Over the past seven years he led his team to triumphs but also had his fair share of tribulations.

 

Jones enjoyed great early success and guided England to Six Nations titles in 2016, 2017 and 2020, while reaching the 2019 World Cup final, where his side suffered defeat to South Africa

 

In the years that followed England's World Cup defeat, the Six Nations became a tournament in which Jones' side found themselves floundering.

2021 saw them finish fifth after defeats to Scotland, Wales and Ireland, while in 2022 they lost to Scotland, Ireland and France, putting them well off contention for the title.

 

Defeat to Scotland at Twickenham in 2021 was England's first loss to the Scots there for 38 years dating back to 1983, while they lost to Ireland in both years by a combined margin of 31 points, conceding 32 on both occasions.

 

Reviews once again took place, but Jones survived and headed on a tour of Australia which marked another high point in his rollercoaster tenancy.

 

Despite Jones getting his young guns firing down under, the autumn would reveal England had some major problems to still contend with. England won only five of their 12 tests in 2022 and, with a World Cup around the corner in 2023, concerns over England's form escalated with defeats against Argentina and South Africa and a last minute draw against New Zealand  

 

Jones seemed completely focused on the 2023 World Cup and that was a costly error. International rugby is very simple: focus everything on the next game with absolutely zero distractions. He lost the focus of simply winning the next game and allowed himself to get distracted by the media, former players, writing books and everything else.

 

Leicester coach Steve Borthwick was appointed as the new National Coach with Rugby League legend Kevin Sinfield installed as his right-hand man in the role of defence coach.

 

The 43-year-old ex-Saracens and England lock has just nine Test matches to go before the World Cup contest in France. Borthwick worked under Jones with England between 2015 and 2020, before moving on to drive Leicester to last season’s Gallagher Premiership title.

 

Kevin Sinfield joined Leicester in 2021 for his first coaching role in union, quickly making a major mark at Welford Road. I expect the new coaching pair to use the template that took Leicester to the Gallagher Premiership title last season to prepare England for the upcoming first Guinness Six Nations campaign under his command.

 

Nevertheless, the off-pitch disarray has been offset by calm and impressive displays in front of the media by Borthwick and Kevin Sinfield, and there’s little green shoots of hope that the former Tigers duo might be bringing in an era of clarity and focused selection, in contrast to the obsessive detail and left-field picks of their predecessor.

 

Borthwick selected an exciting squad focused on speed rather than just power. It’s clear he wants to pick a team with pace, which promises a stark contrast to the Eddie Jones era. 

The selection of the rapid Ollie Hassell-Collins and the recall of forward  Ben Earl show some vision of how England will play in the Borthwick era. Ollie Hassell-Collins is properly big, fast and aggressive, a complete modern Test winger.

 

Under Jones,  England became far too slow and predictable from one to 15. To win a World Cup, England can’t rely on brute power alone. They are not South Africa. There must be a speed and dynamism to the players who are selected.

 

Unfortunately, at the same time, England have now lost a total of four players from their original 36-strong Guinness Six Nations squad, Elliot Daly and Jamie George withdrawing on Tuesday from this week’s five-day training camp just 24 hours after it was confirmed that Courtney Lawes and George McGuigan would miss out. With Tom Curry also missing the first two rounds – it will be a very new look team which opens the competition in the Calcutta Cup match against Scotland at Twickenham. 

 

Their task is enormous: win, win hearts and minds and keep winning. And given their tight timescale of nine games together before the World Cup, training and playing time has never been more of the essence.

 

For all the excitement around the new coaches, together with their impressive performances in front of the camera this year, the facts remain that England are short of form, short of world-class players, short in key positions and, above all, short in real Test match size compared to the likes of South Africa and France.

 

They have a tough schedule; Wales and Ireland away, Scotland, always a road bump, first up, and host France in the fourth match, hopefully when both sides are up to working temperature. Italy also visit Twickenham, packed with pace in their backline and with some world-class forwards such as Michele Lamaro, Federico Ruzza and Danilo Fischetti; a game that no team could take for granted- just ask Wales!

Borthwick’s selection have a consistent theme of picking form and pace, I expect him to vary his combinations, a possible move to a smaller back-row but using real specialist flyers down the wings. His dilemma is that England have 50 players that are 6 or 7/10 at this level, and outside of Tom Curry, Owen Farrell and Marcus Smith, they have very few that you could consider are truly world-class.

 

The Gallagher Premiership is producing a raft of top-class loose heads, options galore at seven and loads of choice in the back three. But look for a big centre or two, seek some properly big locks or back-rows and you may be waiting for some considerable time. So pace and evasion has to be at the centre of Borthwick’s vision, and that is rather un-English.

 

On one hand this creates opportunities for players to put their hands up and to improve, but selecting a style, a team to deliver it and get results is a labour of Hercules himself. Put simply, Borthwick can pick his first team on gut feel and data; from thereon in he has one or maybe two chances to recalibrate that thinking. His initial decisions, and there’s some huge ones such as Smith and Farrell, are absolutely key to get right, because if he doesn’t, he’ll be out of time.

 

Owen Farrell is undoubtedly the key man for England.  Will he play 10, will he play 12? Having a man leading the team with 100 caps is a strong asset. In tight matches, he’s the king, a leader and a man of steel. However, should he transgress once more in the tackle, the repercussions could be enormous.

 

Farrell’s playmaker partner, Marcus Smith is another key part of the 23, but again there is huge uncertainty about where and if Smith starts. He could be the real point of difference that can rip apart any defence in the world, and on that basis, him starting at 10 is more important than where Farrell starts. We suspect, however, Borthwick will see him as a finisher, and England will fail to impress, with Smith being brought back to start later on in the tournament, a potential waste of possibly the most threatening talent England has.

 

This is such a hard one to predict. Sometimes a new coach gives that halo feeling, that 5% lift as a new voice is heard in the shed. Surely that’ll be enough to see off Scotland and Italy at home? You’d have thought so.

 

But then Cardiff and Wales hold a massive challenge – a team that’ll have the same halo feeling from Warren Gatland and a side that has a lot more beef in the lock and centre positions than England has. This is England’s turning point. Win it and they’re above par for the campaign. Lose it and it’s back to the drawing board.

 

With even the most optimistic Englishman understanding that both France and Ireland are huge uphill tasks, it all revolves around that Wales match. If they triumph, there is the chance of maybe third or second place in the Six Nations, but Gatland could well galvanise his team to a famous victory.

 

Prediction: FOURTH

 

SCOTLAND

It has been the same old tale for Scotland over the last couple of Six Nations campaigns, where the side starts brilliantly but fades as the tournament pushes on. In the 24 years since winning the final Five Nations Championship Scotland have finished no higher than third in the expanded competition.

 

The closest they have come to being genuine title contenders was in 2021 when they defeated England, France and Italy but lost by a single point to eventual winners Wales and by three to Ireland. Had they not conceded a late try to Louis Rees-Zammit against the Welsh at Murrayfield it would have been the Scots who finished top of the pile. Fine margins.

 

Townsend puts Scotland’s failure to win the championship since 1999 down to improving standards across the board and points to the world rankings where Ireland and France occupy the top two places, ahead of the traditional powerhouses from the south.

 

With head coach Gregor Townsend under pressure to produce results and performances after a mixed few years in the job, expectations are certainly not as high as they have been in recent seasons.

 

Part of that is also down to the perpetual disappointment which has followed Scottish optimism heading into a Six Nations Championship. The talent is there, but the consistency is not, and we feel another campaign of frustration is coming for the players, coaches and supporters.

 

Last year, it started off well enough as they emerged triumphant 20-17 over England to retain the Calcutta Cup, but it proved to be yet another false dawn. As the Red Rose would go on to show, they were no great shakes themselves and, in hindsight, that Scotland display was pretty mediocre. A week later, Townsend’s men produced a lacklustre effort against Wales in Cardiff.

 

They fell away to three defeats in the remainder of the tournament finishing fourth.

 

Townsend has been calling for greater consistency, and the Scots will need to find that in their game. Fortunately, club sides Edinburgh and Glasgow Warriors have been in brilliant form over the last two months, which could boost their chances in the Six Nations.

 

Scotland had a strong Autumn - hammering the Pumas 52-29 and losing narrowly to New Zealand, generating optimism that Townsend can at least match his previous best of three wins which he achieved in the 2018, 2020 and 2021 Six Nations. Statistically, he has the best win rate of any Scotland coach in the pro era.

 

It has been a rather disruptive build-up to the annual international tournament for the Scots. Coach AB Zondagh announced his departure from the backroom team just a month before the start of the competition, there’s been rumours over Townsend’s future, and they have lost star wing Darcy Graham to injury.

 

Forwards Scott Cummings and Rory Darge are also on the sidelines, while there are fitness doubts over the likes of Zander Fagerson and Hamish Watson, who played his first game since the November campaign on Saturday.

 

With Townsend’s future beyond the World Cup in doubt, it could be his last chance to make a solid swing at the Six Nations

 

Scotland certainly don’t have the easiest start as For the third year in a row Scotland will face England then Wales in their opening two games, with Townsend’s side looking to become the first Scotland team in over half a century to beat the Auld Enemy three times in a row. Townsend had the measure of Eddie Jones, winning three, drawing one and losing one of their Six Nations duels. Jones’ departure and the arrival of Steve Borthwick make England something of an unknown quantity.

 

They then take on a Wales side potentially rejuvenated by the return of Warren Gatland, with France following two weeks later, the pressure could be on Townsend and his players by the time the final two games come around.

 

Even if they come through those three matches with potentially a couple of victories, it doesn’t get any easier as Ireland come to town. Two victories from those four clashes would represent a reasonable return heading into the final encounter against Italy, but a bad run could leave them battling to avoid the Wooden Spoon.

 

Two players that immediately spring to mind if Scotland are to perform well are Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg, who will be crucial to their chances of success. Russell and Townsend have had a strained relationship over the years, but the fly-half is the one player that can ignite this backline.

 

The head coach dropped the Racing 92 star ahead of the Autumn Nations Series before bringing him back following an injury to Adam Hastings. He then starred in the dominant triumph over Argentina, and Townsend has been spending the past few days heaping praise on the 30-year-old. If he and Hogg can work well in tandem, then the Scots could have a successful few weeks.

 

Elsewhere in the backline there is Duhan van der Merwe, a player that needs to take on added responsibility with Graham currently on the sidelines. Van der Merwe is an absolute powerhouse but tends not to come searching for the ball so the Scots will need to find ways of getting him involved.

 

Up front, loose head Pierre Schoeman has become a bit of a cult hero, for both club and country, and needs a big tournament, while it is vital his front-row colleague, tight head Zander Fagerson, is back fit.

 

Behind them, Jonny Gray will do much of the hard graft in the second-row, but it is the loose trio which provides much of stardust in the forward eight. Once again, they are relying on one of their most important players, Hamish Watson, being fit and firing in time for the start of the tournament.

 

He and captain Jamie Ritchie form an excellent and well-balanced partnership at flanker with Matt Fagerson the primary ball carrier at number eight. Fagerson has become a key cog at the base of the scrum and his carrying game will be crucial in getting front foot ball.

 

If the forwards can do their jobs, then it will make it much easier for half-backs and potentially someone like Ben Healy. Russell will, providing there is no further bust-up with Townsend, be the first-choice Scotland fly-half, with Blair Kinghorn next in command, but an injury or suspension will open the door for the Munsterman. Irish by birth but Scottish-qualified through his mother, the 23-year-old is a very talented playmaker and has the quality to step up at this level.

 

Another ‘foreigner’ taking his place in the squad is Ruaridh McConnochie. He has the name of a Scot but is very much English having been born and raised south of the border, while he also represented the Red Rose at the World Cup. Under World Rugby’s new laws, McConnochie has been able to switch and could well make his second international debut during the Six Nations. The 31-year-old has struggled with injuries but, when fit is an excellent player and will be a threat to defences if given an opportunity by Townsend.

 

I can’t see them overturning France or Ireland, so three victories is probably the most they can hope for. Even then, going to a pumped-up Twickenham, where fans will be buoyed with the new head coach coming in, will be a big ask first up. The Wales match is probably 50/50 but, if they succumb to Gatland’s men, they could be facing with no wins under their belt. Scotland should do enough to avoid the Wooden Spoon, but it will be another disappointing tournament for Townsend’s men. 

 

Prediction: FIFTH

 

ITALY

The serial whipping boys of the Championship hit back last year by claiming their first victory in the Six Nations in 36 attempts, defeating Wales 22-21 on Super Saturday, and will be out to avoid another seven-year wait for their next win.

 

Italy head into the Six Nations off the back of a mixed bag of results in July and November last year. Kieran Crowley’s charges fell to their first-ever defeat to Georgia but bounced back to claim a massive 49-17 triumph over Samoa.

 

The Azzurri made one final bit of history as they secured their maiden Test win over Australia, defeating Dave Rennie’s side 28-27, but their year closed with a 63-21 humbling from South Africa.

 

Inspirational captain Michele Lamaro skippers the side once again this Six Nations and despite key playmaker Paolo Garbisi being absent for the opening rounds through injury, Crowley certainly has a powerful enough squad to be competitive this term.

 

The Azzurri have the arduous task of hosting France in the opening game of the Six Nations. As mentioned earlier, they will front up against the current holders and last year’s Grand Slam winners without the guidance of Garbisi.

 

It would take an almighty effort for Italy to upset Fabien Galthie’s Championship-winning side. If the Italians are to win another match this Six Nations, they will possibly target the home game against Wales and the away trip to Murrayfield at the back end of the competition.

 

Although overturning the likes of France and Ireland seems unlikely, the last time Italy did claim two wins in a single Six Nations was back in 2015 when they defeated the French (22-18) and Irish (22-15) at home.

 

The loss of Paolo Garbisi is an enormous blow to the side for the opening two rounds but is expected to return for the home Test against Ireland in Round Three. The fly-half slotted the winning points against Wales last year, but his influence on the side extends further than his excellence from the tee. He displays tactical nous and game management far beyond his years.

 

With Garbisi sidelined, Tommaso Allan will likely take over the reins at pivot, and the experienced playmaker is more than capable of driving the team, as he showed against Australia last November when he filled the number 10 jersey.

 

Michele Lamaro is a vital cog in the pack, both from a performance and leadership point of view, while the return of Jake Polledri to the set-up is a tremendous boost to their back-row stocks. The Gloucester loose forward has endured a horrendous run of injuries, but if he can get back to his previous best in the Azzurri blue, he will quickly re-establish himself as a regular starter.

 

Livewire full-back Ange Capuozzo showed just how much of a threat he was last year, scoring two tries in his first two appearances in the Six Nations. He backed that up with a brace in the historic win over Australia. The 2022 World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the Year will be a go-to source for tries and attacking intent throughout the competition and is bound to produce magical moments.

 

There are some supremely talented players throughout Crowley’s squad worth keeping an eye on. Forgotten rising star Matteo Minozzi returns to the Italian squad after his battles with injuries and a self-inflicted break from Test rugby to get his career back on track. An entertaining full-back, he could provide a spark from the bench for Italy or line up on the wing if needed. Him linking up with Capuozzo is nightmarish for opposition defenders.

 

Throw Monty Ioane, Pierre Bruno and Tommaso Menoncello in the mix and Crowley is spoilt for choice out wide.

 

In the pack, the Italians double the Cannone threat, with Niccolo in the second-row and Lorenzo at number eight. The brothers flexed their Test capabilities throughout last year and are a threat in all facets of the game but particularly with ball in hand.

 

Italy will fancy their chances of avoiding the Wooden Spoon this year, but the odds are stacked against them with the two tournament favourites visiting the Stadio Olimpico.

 

Wales will undoubtedly be better this year under the guidance of Warren Gatland, as should England under Steve Borthwick, making Scotland the most likely target game for the Italians.

 

A single victory this year would be a positive for the Azzurri and give them plenty of confidence ahead of the Rugby World Cup, but in the end, another Wooden Spoon finish is expected. 

 

Prediction: SIXTH

 

Round One Score Predictions:

 

Wales 16 Ireland 26

England 23 Scotland 9

Italy 10 France 36