Six Nations Week 3 – Who has Midpoint Momentum?

Six Nations Week 3 – Who has Midpoint Momentum?

After two exciting rounds of encounters, your correspondent is feeling good with five out of six results correctly predicted – an 83.3% accuracy rate!  As we enter the halfway stage of the 2017 Six Nations – it's a case of who has midpoint momentum which will see them through to the final finish line. 

England look like the team with the most momentum after a photo finish final try in a tense and exciting encounter in Cardiff. 

Wales will be licking their wounds and wondering how but for a moment of sheer madness they threw away victory. 

Ireland bounced back with a demolition of Italy in Rome and France showed that their impressive performance at Twickenham was not just a one off by outmuscling a counter-attacking Scottish team in Paris. This weekend has at least two out of three tight tough encounters to look forward to.


SCOTLAND v WALES

First up on Saturday afternoon is an intriguing encounter between the Celtic nations at Murrayfield. Scotland will be in confident mood after two good opening performances whilst Wales will want to build on their strong showing against England in what should be a close and exciting match north of the border.

Scotland continued their momentum with a strong showing in Paris. They really look like the best counter attacking side in the championship and spill the ball and go to sleep at your peril as France found in conceding an early try where Stuart Hogg was once again the scorer. Vern Cotter will be very optimistic of Scotland beating Wales for the first time in a decade when the two teams roll on the Murrayfield turf for the 2:25pm kick off. 

It’s an unusual scenario for Scotland to be going into this game as marginal favourites given the home advantage. Whilst they currently have a high degree of confidence now, and have recently found a way of winning and closing out games, they’ve always been a strong side at home. But winning on the road remains a challenge for them and the French game was theirs for the taking.

At the centre of this return to form in Scottish rugby is the investment made into the club structure by the Scottish Rugby Union. Glasgow Warriors have been growing as a force over the past three seasons and this season they are absolutely bullying sides in the European tournaments.  Vern Cotter’s ability to pick tried and tested club units, all of whom have pre-existing understanding of each other, is key to them continuing to build momentum at international level. 
Scotland are a tight-knit squad who have a clearly defined rucking and driving game, all orchestrated by the much-improved Finn Russell at fly-half.  They show tremendous team spirit and their ability to counter attack from low possession is unparalleled in the current world game. They’ve a lot of options in the back five of the scrum, although the loss of Josh Strauss will rob them of one of their main ball carriers.

Greg Laidlaw’s absence is a major issue for Cotter and he will be sorely missed especially given his ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over and his accuracy with the boot has been key to Scottish hopes in all their recent matches. 

Scotland coach Vern Cotter revealed five changes from the side who lost in France and flanker John Barclay will captain Scotland for the first time in seven years in their Six Nations clash with Wales at Murrayfield on Saturday, taking over from Laidlaw. Thirty-year-old Barclay will captain the side for just the second time, having previously led Scotland against New Zealand in 2010.

The three other changes come in the pack as Gordon Reid makes his first start of the Championship at loose head replacing Allan Dell to pack down in an all Glasgow Warriors front row alongside Fraser Brown and Zander Fagerson.

John Barclay is joined in the back row by the recalled John Hardie and Ryan Wilson. 

Hardie returns from injury to take over the open side flanker duties meaning Hamish Watson slides to the bench while Wilson returns from an elbow infection to take over from the also-injured Josh Strauss, while injured wing Sean Maitland is replaced by Tim Visser.

Ali Price looks likely to make a first international start as replacement at halfback for Laidlaw, who will miss the rest of the tournament with an ankle ligament injury.

Wales have not lost in the fixture since seven Chris Paterson penalties condemned them to a 21-9 defeat in 2007, a run which has included four Murrayfield victories on the bounce.

For Wales, this fixture is a critical bump in the road. They really need to be ruthless and defend strongly to stop Scotland from building their spoiling, counter attacking game. 

I don’t buy the notion that England were the equal of Wales in Cardiff. In my eyes, England were second in virtually every department bar the set-piece for almost 75 minutes of the match and quite frankly Wales should have closed that game out long before the last quarter. They were very impressive in all departments for very long periods against England but for a side that’s shown such a simple game plan and execution over the years, Wales’ thinking and decision making under pressure from both players and coaches, was simply diabolical in that match and cost them the game. England didn’t win it, Wales lost it through stupidity.

Interim Welsh Head Coach Robert Howley will be delighted to have George North back as the giant Northampton wing has recovered from a leg injury that side-lined him for Wales' 21-16 loss at Cardiff. 

North replaces the ailing Alex Cuthbert who has been the subject of much dialogue and social media abuse in Wales and it is the only change following the England defeat. 

The selection of Cuthbert has been simple animal cruelty. He has shown such poor form over that past 12 months that he really shouldn’t have ever been put in that position. The vitriol he has received in many quarters however is simply unacceptable. No one doubts his commitment and effort but he should never have been placed in that position. It is a damning indictment of Wales’ ineffective and conservative selection policies that they keep resorting to tried and trusted players – regardless of form – rather than bringing on the next generation. This is a total contrast to the belief Eddie Jones has shown in young players like Itoje and Daly who re-paid his faith many fold over the past 12 months.

Howley has not surprisingly opted to retain the back row of Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty who really took the game to England’s acknowledged pack, with 63 times-capped number eight Taulupe Faletau again on the bench.

Moriarty was arguably Wales' outstanding performer against England, while flankers Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric have also been back in prime form, so it is no surprise that Howley has gone for the same again. There was considerable controversy when Moriarty was substituted against the Rose and there is no doubt the English forwards were glad to see the back of him given his ball carrying and bone crunching defence.

Faletau, as a result of two knee injuries, has made only a couple of 80-minute appearances for his club this term, yet he will potentially offer a considerable impact off the bench at Murrayfield, if required.

There is one other switch among the replacements, with Faletau's Bath colleague Luke Charteris involved for the first time in Wales' current Six Nations campaign. He returns from an injury to a fractured hand, and has regained full fitness and takes over as second-row cover from Newport Gwent Dragons lock Cory Hill.

Several of the Welsh team had their best ever games in the red jersey against England. Ken Owens and Jake Ball in particular were a real nuisance to England and the starting props are also rightly retained with Rob Evans and Tomas Francis retaining their places. After Scotland’s scrummaging problems against France, Wales will look to their front row to rule the set-piece roost. 

There was a lot of talk of perhaps bringing young Scarlets flyer Steff Evans onto the bench in place of Jamie Roberts but Howley has gone with experience and stayed loyal to the iron man, squared jawed, granite-hewn centre as his threequarter cover.

In my view, Howley has called it right. He will certainly be looking for forward domination in the scrums where Scotland look vulnerable and if Shaun Edwards has done his defensive homework then Wales will prove a real handful for Scotland to deal with if they want the victory.

Wales need to keep to their game plan, avoid giving away too many kickable penalties and bully Scotland at the set piece. Their ability to limit Stuart Hogg running from depth will be key and if Wales keep doing aimless long clearance kicks then they could be in trouble.

Winning at Murrayfield has become a habit for Wales and I feel they will have just too much for Scotland. A tight game with one score between the teams

Scotland 20 Wales 24


IRELAND v FRANCE

This is another game where hopefully we will see some more fireworks and running rugby as Guy Noves takes his rapidly improving French side to Dublin to take on Ireland. The Irish really do have a poor record against France and this will be a real tester for both teams as they seek to continue their championship challenges. In their last three encounters in the Championship, there's only been one score in it, they had two draws prior to that.

Ireland rebounded in a strong way in Rome after their catastrophic failure in Edinburgh in week 1. Jonny Sexton has recovered from a calf strain and is one of three changes that Joe Schmidt has made from the side that defeated Italy last time out, with captain Rory Best and Jack McGrath coming into the front row.

Sexton has been out of action for five weeks and will feature in his first international outing since the Autumn Series defeat to New Zealand last November. Given his talismanic status with Schmidt and Ireland – he was always going to be recalled to the starting line-up.  Ulster’s Paddy Jackson, who has deputised admirably, kicked nine from nine against Italy and was a try-scorer in the opening round defeat to Scotland, has to make do with a place on the bench. You have to feel for Jackson who really has not put a foot wrong in the last few games and gets side-lined for someone who has not had a game in over 5 weeks.

Rory Best’s run of 51 consecutive Six Nations matches came to an end in Rome when he was ruled out with a stomach bug and the Ulster hooker replaces debutant Niall Scannell. The Munster man is on the bench with James Tracey missing out on the match day 23. 

Jack McGrath is recalled at prop to win his 39th cap after losing out to Cian Healy against Italy and there are further changes on the bench with hat-trick hero Craig Gilroy losing out to provincial team-mate Andrew Trimble who also came through training unscathed.

Ulster's Andrew Trimble could make his first appearance of the tournament after recovering from a groin problem to earn a spot as a replacement. I am delighted to see him back in the fold and except he will be hungry for action when he undoubtedly makes a 2nd half appearance.

Sexton is the only change to the starting Irish back division, with Conor Murray starting at No 9, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose linking up in the centres, and Rob Kearney making a Lazarus-like recovery to take the No 15 shirt.
Fit again Peter O’Mahony replaces the injured Josh van der Flier, while Iain Henderson is selected ahead of Ultan Dillane who failed to make the squad earlier this week.

For France, their hard-earned win over Scotland will give them a significant confidence boost for the clash at the Aviva Stadium. France downed Ireland in Paris last year but had since slipped to four defeats in a row in this famous old Championship until they overcame Scotland last time out.

Guy Noves has made three changes in personnel for Saturday’s clash with Ireland, with Yoann Huget, Bernard Le Roux and Rabah Slimani all coming into the starting XV.

In the forwards Slimani's fine form off the bench in the first two rounds - he scored a try against England in round one - earns him the starting tighthead job with the giant Uini Atonio dropping to the bench.

With Loann Goujon injured, Noves has been forced into a back row re-shuffle where Le Roux has beaten Charles Ollivon for the blindside flanker berth with the Toulon flanker added to the bench.

Meanwhile in the backs Yoann Huget is rewarded for his solid form coming in on the right wing as Fijian flyer Virimi Vakatawa is ruled out with injury. On the bench loosehead Eddy Ben Arous returns for Noves' side while centre Henry Chavancy is in line for his debut and there is also space for Djibril Camara as back three cover - his first inclusion in the France match day 23 in this year's Championship.

The backbone of that side is retained here, so Scott Spedding is again at full-back alongside his Clermont club mate Noa Nakaitaci on the left wing with Huget on the right.

Remi Lamerat and Gael Fickou are paired in midfield while Camille Lopez and Baptiste Serin remain the half-back pairing. Cyril Baille keeps the starting loosehead and is joined by skipper Guilhem Guirado and Slimani in the front row. Sebastian Vahaamahina and Yoann Maestri remain the locks while Le Roux accompanies Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles in the back row.

Ireland have built their national success around taking club units to their national team for a number of years, using their excellent youth structure to create understanding and the provincial teams to build upon that. France, under Guy Noves are trying to do exactly the same model and you can see Noves trying to build that understanding with the La Rochelle back-rowers and the Clermont midfield.

Critically, France have developed a much more consistent game plan with much less of the “high and low” moments of concentration and focus during a match which has limited their progress for many years and they have also added a new-found skill of continuity of pressure. Occasional flashes of brilliance doesn’t win many games if there’s no continuity of pressure. A lot of that progress is down to the linking of the excellent flanker Kevin Gourdon at openside, and the holes that Louis Picamoles creates with his massive carries.

The back-row battle will be absolutely key to winning this titanic struggle in Dublin. Ireland have great balance with CJ Stander on the blindside combining with we all know what Jamie Heaslip brings with skill and intellect, and on the open side, Sean O’Brien is one of the best over-the-ball men in the game, an utter clamp of a man at the ruck.

It’s a real tough game to call and there’s great balance and match ups everywhere; Remi Lamerat versus Robbie Henshaw is a great example of two power centres that will go at each other all day. Baptiste Serin has continued to impress and will be a great counter to Conor Murray.

This match will be about which side wins in the back-row defence and carry. It’s a mouthwatering match up and home advantage should see Ireland through. Just.

Ireland 23 France 18


ENGLAND v ITALY

England return to HQ as the only unbeaten side and look odds on to continue their championship chase with a big bonus point victory over an Italian side who look short on confidence and any sort of form. England are showing that level of arrogance which all sporting greats have – a bit like being 1-0 against Man United at Old Trafford with 5 mins to go and knowing you will lose 2-1. They show such confidence in every match right now and seem to have incredible self-belief that they will triumph in every match and they also know how to win when not playing particularly well as shown in their last two matches. 

As publishing deadlines approach and your correspondent packs up for a weekend in Scotland; the England team announcement hasn’t been made although there are not too many changes expected.  Mako Vunipola has returned from his brief injury and looks likely to have a place in the weekend 23 potentially starting the match.  He is one of just two loose head props in the England squad, so will almost certainly feature alongside Joe Marler - who has started the first two games.

England haven’t quite fired in the pack and Vunipola’s strength and power will be a welcome return to the pack. I find it strange not to see James Haskell start a game as yet and Jack Clifford was pretty anonymous against Wales – so I feel Jones may shake things up in a back-row mix which really hasn't fired in either of the opening salvos.

Bath’s Anthony Watson could also come back into the match day mix after recovering from a hamstring injury and looks likely to take a wing position with Elliot Daly likely to move to centre as Jonathan Joseph has been sent back to his club for this weekend. 

Eddie Jones will want to keep the England juggernaut moving forwards and will want to see his team assert their dominance and go for the throat.  I think we’ll see some changes for this game; again, back row balance is key to winning teams and frankly Nathan Hughes has been very disappointing in the white shirt and has totally failed to impose himself in the way he does in the Aviva Championship for Wasps.

England have not looked solid in their back row in either match so far but that's not surprising given the world class back row talent in both Welsh and French sides. Jack Clifford was a little lightweight in a game of huge collisions and his place is certainly under threat. Rumours abound that Northampton Saints’ Teimana Harrison has trained at No.8 this week with the England squad and Jones may take a chance and give him a start there.

In the backs, many are calling for Danny Care to be recalled at scrum half and there is a strong case to try Ben Te’o in the starting XV, potentially moving Owen Farrell to ten. I also believe Jamie George has earned the right to start and that might mean Owen skippering and running the show at fly-half.
Former Azzurri coach Nick Mallet was vocal in the press this week about the Italian coaching role being one of the toughest in world rugby. Regular readers will know I am not an enthusiast for Italy in the Six Nations and I argue strongly against the consensus that Italy are getting stronger every season because they’re not!

Another wooden spoon season of serious hidings and calls for a play-off against European Champions Georgia will be ringing louder and louder.  Bluntly, with Georgia ahead of Italy in the world rankings, there’s no reason why the Six Nations should not adopt promotion and relegation moving forward. It’s criminal that the Georgians have no way of progressing their rugby despite earning that right.

It would also be a much-needed wake up call for Italy, making them fight for the right to be in the top tier rather than hanging on in quiet desperation in the hope they may get one or two decent results. Unfortunately, unless Italy changes its club game structure it’s hard to them make real progress. The two professional clubs – Treviso and Zebre have not had a great experience in the Guinness Pro 12 and the gap in class between the two pro franchises and the local Italian championship is a real gulf and not encouraging for bringing a sufficient quantity of quality players through to international level.

Conor O'Shea has had a pretty torrid time in the opening two matches with the Italians conceding 96 points, 12 tries and a negative 79 points difference so far. He has made four changes to his match day XV that lost to Ireland in Rome last time out, with Tommaso Allan and Michele Campagnaro recalled to face England in Sunday's encounter.

Allan comes in for Carlo Canna at Outside Half, earning his first start for the Azzurri since June 2016, while Campagnaro replaces Tommaso Benvenuti in midfield. 

The recall of Exeter Chiefs centre Campagnaro has been coming for some time and frankly I am very surprised that he hasn’t featured so far in the competition. He brings a much harder edge to the Italian threequarters and he will be one to fear as he is well known to the England backs after his storming performances in the Aviva championship.

There is a third change in the backline where Giulio Bisegni returns on the right wing in place of Angelo Esposito, reclaiming the spot he had occupied in round one against Wales.
Esposito misses out altogether on the matchday squad.

 O'Shea’s final change comes in the back row where Abraham Steyn replaces Maxime Mbanda, and he will line up alongside with Simone Favaro and Sergio Parisse. 

Mbanda drops down to the bench where there are two further changes, with both props being switched. Michele Rizzo replaced the injured Dario Chistolini earlier in the week and will provide loose head cover, while Zebre tight head Pietro Ceccarelli also included.

It’s hard to see any real improvement likely at Twickenham for Italy and another cricket score defeat the likely outcome for the Azzurri. Expect to see England dominating and a sure bonus point. England will win, but it’s the style of performance with which they’ll be measured. Eddie Jones has set some high standards for his England and anything but a crushing win will be unacceptable for this excellent side.

England 76 Italy 6

2017 Six Nations Week 2 – Now we’re getting warm…

2017 Six Nations Week 2 – Now we’re getting warm…

So the opening weekend of 2017 Six Nations action saw three cracking contests and competitive rugby between all six teams. Scotland finally came of age with a narrow victory over an Ireland team which will rue the missed opportunities. England wobbled but overcame a gallant and reborn French challenge and Wales ground out a good win in Rome despite an absolutely dire first 40-minute performance. The new bonus point system for scoring four tries did not come into play as no team managed that feat although France and Ireland both picked up losing bonus points. 
Both Wales and Scotland had opportunities to gain the critical bonus’s and their failure to execute could come back to haunt both of them in a tight championship finish.
Let’s review this weekend’s matches with your correspondent’s overview and predictions:

ITALY v IRELAND

The battle of the first-round losers will open the weekend with a 2:25pm kick off in Rome. Italy will take heart from their first half performance against Wales and Ireland’s unconvincing pack performance in Murrayfield will give them confidence as we go into their second home fixture. The two sides have met 26 times before, with Italy winning just four of those, the last coming back in 2013 at the Stadio Olimpico. 

Italy head coach Conor O'Shea has made four changes to the side that was beaten last weekend on home turf by Wales, with three of those coming in the pack. Simone Favaro returns to openside flanker having missed the opening round loss in place of Abraham Steyn, while Leonardo Ghiraldini starts at hooker for Ornel Gega.

Both Steyn and Gega drop to the bench, as does George Biagi with Andries van Schalkwyk preferred in the second row.

In the back line, Angelo Esposito comes in on the right wing for Giulio Bisegni, while on the opposite flank Giovanbattista Venditti will reach 40 caps for the Azzurri. Edoardo Gori and Carlo Canna are retained in the half-back positions, as are Tommaso Benvenuti and Luke Mclean in the midfield - with Michele Campagnaro once again having to make do with a spot on the bench which is puzzling.

Captain Sergio Parisse has been an injury concern all week for the Azzurri and he underwent an MRI scan this week for neck trauma sustained in the second half against Wales. He is named at No.8 and O’Shea will be no doubt visiting the Vatican this week prior to the game to ask for divine intervention on his fitness.

There hasn't been a more influential number eight when it comes to punting and handicap lines since Dean Richards' presence for Leicester in the 80s and 90s. Parisse's importance was underlined when Italy beat South Africa 20-18 in the autumn, only for Tonga to turn them over the following week when he was on the side lines.

But even Parisse couldn't gather his troops after a solid defensive effort and a try from a rolling maul in the first half against Wales, which saw them go in 7-3 up at the break. In fact, he began to lose the plot and the referee threatened him with a red card at one point such was his constant bleating about the decisions.

Conor O’Shea will also be concerned about Italy’s overall fitness and their failure to add a single point in the second half in Rome. They still seem to be competitive for only 60 minutes and he will be looking for forward dominance in the scrum and maul to drain the Irish defence which is currently leaking an average of three tries per match. 

Ireland will look back with horror at the possession statistics from Murrayfield and their weak defensive performance leaking three tries to Scotland. Ireland 58% possession and spent 59% of the opening stanza in Scotland territory in the opening 40 minutes in Murrayfield but failed to capitalise but were ripped apart by the attacking guile of Stuart Hogg and the attitude and never say die approach of the Highlanders.  

The main thing that went wrong for Ireland at Murrayfield was that their offense play was often uninspiring and predictable, with very few proper line breaks and depended heavily on the big ball carriers to punch holes. It was rather like watching Wales play in Green Jerseys at times. Ringrose and Henshaw were toothless and Rob Kearney failed to make his usual attacking contribution. 

Tommy Bowe is an irish legend, but his best days are over. With all the exciting talent available – especially with so many Irish qualified backs playing with their provinces, I am not sure why Joe Schmidt cannot start building a backline that can worry the other nations.

Coach Joe Schmidt will be looking for far better against Italy and has swung the axe making several changes to his match day 23.

There are three changes to the starting XV. Cian Healy and Donnacha Ryan have both been recalled for Saturday's clash at the Stadio Olimpico. Healy comes in to make his first Six Nations start since the Championship-winning game against Scotland in Murrayfield in 2015.

Elsewhere Donncha Ryan, who has recovered from a knee injury replaces Iain Henderson who drops out of the match day 23 through injury. Jack McGrath is dropped to the replacements to make way for his Leinster team-mate.
Ireland’s failure to dominate a weakened Scottish front row was a major surprise and is more than likely the reason for Healy’s recall. I was more concerned about Ireland’s back row performance. Sean O’Brien made an impressive return but CJ Stander was rather anonymous and No.8 Jamie Heaslip was extremely disappointing and absent at key moments in the match losing possession on several occasions.  

Tommy Bowe has been released from the Ireland squad for Ulster's Pro12 clash with Edinburgh, as a result Craig Gilroy comes in on the bench. 

Paddy Jackson had a solid game but uninspiring game against Scotland and was proven correct in my feeling that the loss of Jonny Sexton and Peter O’Mahoney would have a big impact on that first match. Both players remain with dubious match fitness and neither player has been risked for the trip to Rome, but both should be available for the game with France in a fortnight. 

There were calls in Ireland for a significant rebuild of the team but it is largely a case of same old, same old from Joe Schmidt. The team should have enough attacking capability to get a Bonus Point from the Italians, but I fear they may struggle against the French. Schmidt’s selection is too conservative and safety first in my view. There was the chance to get some younger players in for the big game experience to build for the World Cup in Japan but he's stayed conservative after last defeat.

I expect Ireland to bounce back with some style in Rome. The forecast is better than the rain which blighted last Sunday’s encounter and Ireland will want to avoid the forward grind and use their backs to use their creativity and penetrate a leaky Italian defence. 

I really was disappointed with Italy's attitude from a winning position last Saturday. If Ireland, who have made two uncontroversial changes in the pack at prop and lock, cut loose early this could get very messy, very quickly.
Italy clearly were well in the game at the interval, but Wales had been so dire that you sensed it was only a matter of time before the visitors found their stride and a shocking Italian penalty count enabled Leigh Halfpenny to nudge them 12-7 in front going into the final quarter before three converted tries saw them coast home 33-7.

Wales were poor but if that match had gone on for another 10 minutes, then they would have won by 50, not 26, and that spells trouble for the Azzurri this Saturday.

They have always been a hit-and-miss side, but they don't tend to react well when losing from winning positions - and there is little doubt they felt the ref was against them last week - and last season's results in this competition hammers that home.

They should have beaten France away in their opening game instead of losing 23-21 and in the next game they got humped 40-9 at home by England, followed by another three dismissals, including a 56-15 loss in Dublin.

And, for all Ireland would have been very disappointed by their Murrayfield loss, there is no better way to get back on the horse than playing a downbeat Italy. I only see one winner and the concerns over Parisse only add to that feeling. Ireland to make hay and a comfortable victory.

ITALY 6 IRELAND 40


WALES v ENGLAND

Both Wales and England recorded opening day victories but neither coaching team will be happy with their team performances. Wales were simply dire in the opening 40 minutes before finally putting Italy to the sword with 30 unanswered points in the second stanza. 

England were caught unawares by the battling French and spent large periods of the game in catch up. The traditional French failing of giving away soft penalties finally told and England can breathe a sigh of relief as the victory and look forward to the short trip down the M4 to Cardiff.

Coach Robert Howley made some dreadful selection howlers against Italy with the wrong front row for the gruelling encounter with the wily and talented Italian pack. Wales dominated possession for the first 20 minutes and were camped in the Italian 22 but failed to make the pressure count in the red zone and came away with nothing.

The half time injury to Dan Biggar gave young flyer Sam Davies some game time but the critical change in the game came with the change of props. Wales were able to shore up their scrum and protect their possession from the set piece and set up the platform for victory.

Wales will have not kidded themselves that they played well in victory last Sunday and, like Italy, they also have a six-day turnaround to contend with when they host England. It’s no surprise then to see Howley make just three changes to his match day squad for the crucial encounter against England.  Wales will start with those replacement props Rob Evans and Tomas Francis with No.8 Taulupe Faletau, who has not played any rugby in 2017, named among the replacements.

Evans and Francis join Ken Owens in the front-row with aggressive 2nd row Jake Ball retained with and skipper Alun Wyn Jones in the second-row. Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty make up the back-row. 
Warburton was outstanding against Italy and Wales stay with the model of playing two open side flankers against an English back row who lacked depth against France. Ross Moriarty also impressed although seemed to run out of steam during the second half so having Faletau available as an option is good news for the Dragons.

After late fitness tests on Thursday morning, Howley was able to name an unchanged backline with fly half Dan Biggar and wing George North recovering from knocks to start in Cardiff.

Rhys Webb is retained at scrum half and Scarlets duo Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies continue in the midfield with Liam Williams, George North and Leigh Halfpenny comprising a dangerous back three with Halfpenny another who was right back to form in Rome.

Nicky Smith and Samson Lee, the starting props in Rome, drop to the bench alongside Faletau, hoping for his first action since suffering a knee injury playing for his club Bath on Christmas eve.

Hooker Scott Baldwin and Newport Gwent Dragon Cory Hill completing the forward contingent. The back-line cover remains the same from Rome in Gareth Davies, Sam Davies and Jamie Roberts.

England were strangely overawed against France. The breakdown was a major area of concern and the experiment of playing Itoje at flanker was unconvincing with England’s back row trio lacking energy and application. 

Coach Eddie Jones has been likened this week by Welsh defensive guru Shaun Edwards to the late great Brian Clough and he has been playing down the Cardiff factor all week as he seeks to get his English Six Nations challenge back on the rails with a stronger all round display against Wales.

England will enter a hostile Principality Stadium with another rookie back row after naming Jack Clifford in place of Tom Wood for Saturday's brutal and critical encounter. Clifford has recovered from a chest injury to make his first international appearance since last summer's tour to Australia and is chosen ahead of the vastly more experienced Wood, who has demoted to the bench. Personally, I thought Wood was very poor against France with poor discipline and ball retention being amongst the many sins in an error strewn performance. 

In the only other change to the starting XV that dispatched France 19-16 last Saturday, Jack Nowell is picked on the right wing in a move that sees Jonny May also relegated to a spot among the replacements. Nowell returns to the starting line-up for the first time since the summer tour to Australia having missed the autumn internationals through injury.

Gloucester flyer May, who was shown a yellow card against France, hasn't scored a try in his eight RBS 6 Nations appearances to date with Jones moving him to the "finisher" role off the bench.

The biggest talking point is in the back row, however, with England facing a potentially all-British and Irish Lions Welsh trio with Clifford, Maro Itoje and Nathan Hughes. Hughes was another who was unimpressive against Louis Picamoles and the entire back row have only four back-row starts between them.

There has been considerable coverage in the press and online media of the changes made by Eddie Jones during the game against France with England behind for much of the 80 minutes at Twickenham.

Eddie Jones has resisted any temptation to bring the likes of James Haskell, Danny Care or Ben Te'o into the starting XV after they impressed late-on against Les Bleus. T’eo in particular caught my eye and looks like a real talent!

Haskell is still returning from his recent toe injury and the England head coach will hope that his replacements can have a similar impact against Wales.
The game will come down to discipline and possession. Wales will need a solid platform from scrum, line out and break down if they are to challenge England. I would have liked to see Sam Davies start but otherwise it is a solid looking Welsh line up.

They really need to inject some pace, tempo and rhythm to their play from the start - as well as making their tackles - otherwise even a shorn England will suffocate them. Their pack is never going to frighten anyone - though their back row has pace, which is why England have replaced Tom Wood with Jack Clifford - so their back-line really needs to step up to the plate.

But you do sense that this is the time be playing England, who themselves looked way off the pace against France. They clearly missed the Vunipola brothers going forward - and Chris Robshaw when it got down and dirty in ball-slowing defence stakes - and leaving the X-factor of Jack Nowell on the bench there was clearly a mistake. It is no surprise that the elusive Nowell starts on Saturday.

England do look vulnerable at the moment to a side who can attack them with pace and precision - if they were playing Ireland in Dublin this week I'd go all-in on the home side - but it's just a matter of whether you can see Wales providing that oomph and dynamism.

For England, I would have liked to see Danny care start the match as I think he gives England a faster platform but the form of Dylan Hartley is a real worry and Jamie George has looked far more assured when he has entered the fray.  Mike Brown is another who lacked penetration at Twickenham and drops down the Lions pecking order with Hogg and Halfpenny the two to choose right now.
Expect all the fervour and passion this fixture always brings but encounters between the two giants at Cardiff are usually close with the last game in 2015 leading to a narrow England victory. Both teams have lethal goal kickers and the result is too close to call. 

Sadly, I feel England have the stronger bench and if Wales play like they did in that first half in Rome then I fear a hammering could be on the cards. At the end my head has to rule my heart and an England victory but not by much.

Wales 23 England 27

FRANCE v SCOTLAND

France will take heart from their stronger showing against England last week but once again failed to gain a victory and they will be disappointed they have been unable to make the breakthrough. Les Bleus at times seemed to lack clarity in attack in the opposing red zone - it seems that many times the easiest way to score is beyond the mentality and belief of the players. 

Given France’s spirited performance in “Le Crunch”, France coach Guy Noves has elected to make one just change for the visit of Scotland in their second Six Nations tussle in Paris on Sunday.

Noves has gone for stability keeping 14 of the same starting XV, with just two replacements being switched out too. Loann Goujon is the fresh face at the Stade de France, packing down in the back row alongside Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles in a bid for their first Six Nations win of the season. He replaces Damien Chouly who is among the replacements.

With a forward battle potentially pivotal, the Bordeaux-Begles man will be looking to add some much-needed strength, as well as using his experience of ten RBS 6 Nations caps.

Indeed it was against Scotland whom Goujon made his international debut against two years ago, with all but four of his caps coming in the Championship.

And the 28-year-old will be looking to restore an impressive head-to-head record his side possess against Vern Cotter's side, victorious in ten previous encounters before Scotland's victory at BT Murrayfield, 29-18 in last year's Championship.

On the replacements bench, Christopher Tolofua takes the place of Clément Maynadier at hooker, while second rower Julien Le Devedec takes the spot of Arthur Iturria.

I was very impressed with Baptiste Serin at scrum half who looked assured and controlled and ran the French attacks with aplomb. Scott Spedding was once again impressive at full back and the Fijian backs Nakaitaci and Vakatowa looked very dangerous every time they saw the ball. 

Scotland surpassed all expectations in that opening 30 minutes against Ireland. The most obvious positives aspects of their game plan were evident when they kicked their goals under pressure; their invention with ball in hand, and that line-out move, but equally impressive was the way they sorted out their scrum after a shaky start, disrupted Ireland ball at the line-out and really gathered themselves to nail the game late on.

Sure, it had its faults but it was as impressive as we had a right to expect from the underdogs. This weekend’s encounter in Paris is another matter though Scotland haven't won in France since that memorable 36-22 romp in 1999, a match in which they scored five first-half tries. 

As my publishing deadline approaches, the Scotland team still hasn’t been announced. Their chance of easing that pain is improved with that win last weekend and Vern Cotter has some critical decisions to make if they are to overcome a resurgent Les Bleus outfit.

I don’t see many changes to the starting line-up but Cotter may be tempted to bring back Ross Ford at hooker. Ford has been very effective in servicing the two Gray brothers at the line out and good as Frazer Brown is, Ford’s 19 tackle contribution against Ireland will be recognised and could be enough to push him into the starting XV.

Elsewhere, Cotter may be tempted to tinker with the back row. In Louis Picamoles, France have perhaps the world's best ball-carrying No 8, his 131 metres last week against England took the breath away. Cotter must decide whether he intends to fight fire with fire, and add to his defensive capabilities in the back-row.

John Barclay is an openside by trade and has been in outstanding form for the Scarlets. He could just be the man to get in Picamoles' face, but on the other hand, Cotter may not wish to lose the cut and thrust that Glasgow Warrior Josh Strauss provides from the base.

Kevin Gourdon and Hamish Watson are nicely matched, while Ryan Wilson is in fine form and a relentless tackler that will help to tie up Northampton's Picamoles.

Any good back row is always a balancing act and Cotter must decide how to weigh his out for a shot at history in Paris.

Scotland’s poor record in Paris clearly counts against them but most encounters against Les Bleus have been tight and Bizarrely, seven points has been the French winning margin on the last two occasions these sides have met in Paris. Scotland must have gained a lot of confidence from that Ireland win and they have the squad to mix it with any side in this tournament.

The point about the Ireland game, however, was that for the first time the hard luck stories were replaced by a driving determination to hang on to their lead and inspired by the kicking and tactical acumen of Greig Laidlaw and the ferocious tackling of 22-year-old Jonny Gray they closed out the win.

Vern Cotter, who spent 20 years of his career playing and coaching in France, has been identifying the weaknesses in a French pack which is powerful, heavy, but ponderously slow. And he can now produce a game plan with the confidence that his players have the mentality to stick to it. Perhaps now they have the belief, too. 

Again a very tough game to call but this French team has more steel than we have seen for many seasons and they will not want to disappoint at home.

Expect a tight game and both teams pushing for victory. France to win by one score.

France 20 Scotland 16

Six Nations 2017 – Round 1 – Opening Salvos...

Six Nations 2017 – Round 1 – Opening Salvos…

After last week’s preview, it’s now down to the game time action and where the rubber hits the road. All squads will have had their last training sessions where moves and game plans are perfected and final line ups announced. the tournament gets real this weekend.  We have three great opening matches to look forward to with some tough encounters for all the teams.

SCOTLAND v IRELAND

First up at the unusual kick off time of 2:25pm is home team Scotland against Ireland. Scotland were impressive in the Autumn – especially against Australia whilst Ireland set the whole world alight with their shock victory over the All Blacks. Both teams will be anxious to avoid a first week defeat and this game could set the tempo for the 2017 championship. Victory is by no means assured for either team. A tough battle at Murrayfield with predicted rain, mild 7C temperatures and the traditional wind effect at the stadium – it’s hard to predict what style of rugby will prevail. 

Scotland coach Vern Cotter has publically stated he is looking for a minimum two victories as he bows out as coach handing over to Gregor Townsend at the end of this campaign. 

Scotland have shown some real progress over the past 15 months.  After a winless Six Nations wooden spoon campaign in 2015, they had a heroic World Cup and followed it with consecutive wins over Italy and France to finish fourth in last year’s championship and backed that up in the autumn with wins over Argentina and Georgia as well as a narrow loss to Australia.

Coach Cotter starting XV for the visit of Ireland shows a mere three changes from the side that finished the autumn. The first of those changes comes in midfield where Huw Jones comes back into the side to replace Mark Bennett at Centre whilst Glasgow pair Josh Strauss, and Fraser Brown return to the starting line-up. 

Stormers star Jones scored a thrilling brace of tries against Australia in the first game of the autumn before getting injured in the act of creating a try for Sean Maitland against the Pumas a week later. I am disappointed to not see Matt Scott at least make the bench. 

Strauss plays at number eight as Ryan Wilson moves to blind-side flanker, whilst Frazer Brown's inclusion means a place on the bench for Edinburgh's 102 cap Hooker Ross Ford. Brown will form an inexperienced front row with props Allan Dell and Zander Fagerson, who have only seven caps between them.
Hamish Watson holds down the open side flanker role in the back row he occupied so effectively throughout the autumn Tests, and brothers Jonny and Richie Gray are paired once again in the Scotland second row.

Cotter has opted for experience at halfbacks as Greig Laidlaw and Finn Russell partner again, and full-back Stuart Hogg and wingers Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour form a very dangerous back three who between them scored half of Scotland's tries in the autumn.

On the bench, there is a potential new cap – Edinburgh’s Simon Berghan, the Kiwi-born tight head who has impressed with Edinburgh this season and with Ross Ford and Gordon Reid will bolster the front row from the bench in the second half. Duncan Weir, John Barclay – who has been in superb form for the Scarlets; and Mark Bennett offer a solid foundation and opportunity to change the game plan and direction.

For Ireland, Joe Schmidt’s selection choices have been extensively weakened by the enormous loss of the talismanic Johnny Sexton with a calf injury and Sexton is ranked as only an outside chance to make the week 2 fixture against Italy. 
Schmidt didn’t make any unexpected changes in his line up for Murrayfield with Ulster second row Iain Henderson recalled to the side while the return of hard working Leinster flanker Sean O’Brien is a welcome boost as he has been passed fit for action.

Henderson got the nod ahead of Donnacha Ryan, who started both games against New Zealand in November but fails to make the squad of 23.
Sean O’Brien, hasn’t played any rugby since early January as he has been recovering from a calf injury, looks to have done enough in training to convince Schmidt of his worth in the side for the Murrayfield clash.

The 29-year-old flanker takes his place in the back row alongside the outstanding CJ Stander and the reliable Jamie Heaslip. Josh van der Flier will provide cover from the bench.

Peter O'Mahony was ruled out on Tuesday and like Sexton, he is looking "highly unlikely" to be fit for the Italy game on Saturday week with a "grade 1 or 2" hamstring strain. 

Andrew Trimble fails to make the bench. The Ulster winger’s training was curtailed this week as he dealt with a groin problem and Simon Zebo and Keith Earls take their places on the wings with Rob Kearney, as expected, named at full-back.

With Johnny Sexton out, Ulsterman Paddy Jackson grasps the opportunity and will win his 20th cap at outside half, partnered as usual by Conor Murray at scrum half with Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose lining up in the centre.
The front row is also named as expected, captain Rory Best has Leinster props Jack McGrath and Tadhg Furlong alongside.

On the Bench, the backs are covered by Tommy Bowe while Kieran Marmion and Ian Keatley will cover the half-back spots. Niall Scannell, Cian Healy, John Ryan, Ultan Dillane and Josh van der Flier are the forwards replacements.
In Sexton’s absence, the game changes dynamic considerably. Finn Russell has been in outstanding form for Glasgow and this is his chance to make his mark on proceedings and steal a march on his rival in the Lions pecking order.

His partnership with skipper Greig Laidlaw is only getting better and if they can get on top of Conor Murray - who will have a huge responsibility on Saturday - then they will go a long way to securing a rare Scottish victory at Murrayfield. 

The pack is where the game will be won or lost. I fear for the new look Scottish front row where Jack McGrath and Rory Best will look to capitalise and dominate at the scrum, line out and turnover. I expect a very tight game and a narrow win for Ireland but only just.

Scotland 14 Ireland 17


ENGLAND V FRANCE

First up for England is a difficult opening encounter against France. England will be the hot favourites especially so given Les Bleus poor record at Twickenham. You have to go back 12 years to last see a French victory at HQ in the Six Nations when England’s poor discipline and the metronomic accuracy of Dmitri Yachvili’s boot saw France home by a solitary point.

Since then – it’s been 5 straight defeats with an average winning margin for the Rose of 15 points.

Coach Eddie Jones will brush off the comparisons this week with US President Donald Trump and will have his team prepared and ready for whatever Gallic fervour they will come up against.  There are eight changes from the starting line-up that sealed England's first clean sweep of the Six Nations in 13 years when the teams met in Paris last March.

With Bath flyer Anthony Watson unavailable with a hamstring injury, Elliot Daly has been named on the left wing in place of Exeter’s Jack Nowell. The Wasps man plays outside centre for his club, possesses an awesome left boot and is given another opportunity on the wing this weekend. Daly will want to forget and recover from his last outing in the White shirt at winger during England’s match against Argentina when he was sent off in the first half for taking a man out in the air. Such is his all-round footballing ability that Jones has seen fit to give him another crack.

Jack Nowell was expected to fill the position but missed Tuesday's training sessions due to personal reasons. He returned home and was only back in camp on Thursday, resulting in his selection on the bench for the visit of Guy Noves' men to Twickenham.

England have significant injuries with the Vunipola brothers Billy and Mako Vunipola both out with knee injuries and Chris Robshaw (shoulder) all unlikely to play any part in England's title defence. Anthony Watson (hamstring) and second row Kruis (knee) have been sidelined for the tournament opener.
Maro Itoje will make his first start at blindside flanker, replacing shoulder-injury victim Chris Robshaw, while Joe Marler completes a remarkable recovery from a recent fractured leg to take his place at loose head prop.

Joe Launchbury is reinstated to the second row replacing the unfortunate Kruis. Such is England’s depth of talent that Kruis will scarcely be missed with the option of several world class locks at their disposal. Fijian born Nathan Hughes will form a powerful back row combination with Itoje and Tom Wood whilst James Haskell will no doubt feature from the bench.

Mike Brown is Mr. Reliable at Full back and the England back division from half backs Youngs and Ford through centres Farrell and Joseph to wings May and Daly ooze class and unpredictability.

Guy Noves enters his second year as France coach and has named a team infused with youth for his RBS 6 Nations opener. He makes six changes from the side which narrowly lost to New Zealand in November. 

There will be Six Nations debuts for Baptiste Serin at scrum half, Kevin Gourdon at flanker and Cyril Baille at prop, while Clemont Second row Arthur Iturria could win his first Test cap off the bench.

French scrum-halves have long had the responsibility of being leaders and playmakers, and it's the turn of 22-year-old Baptiste Serin to step into the limelight at Twickenham. A surprising choice given Maxime Machenaud had worn the number 9 jersey with aplomb in the Autumn, Serin made his debut for France on their summer tour to Argentina, before coming off the bench in each of the three November Tests.

He will link up with Camille Lopez, the Clermont fly-half, who started the game against New Zealand and has re-established himself in the side since missing out on last year's Championship.

As I pointed out in last week’s preview, deprived of players in the Top 14 semi-finals on last summer's tour to Argentina, Noves stumbled upon a new combination of his back row, playing No.8s Louis Picamoles, Kevin Gourdon and Loann Goujon. That continued in November, even after an injury to Goujon, with Charles Ollivon taking his place.

For the RBS 6 Nations it will be Damien Chouly, both a No.8 or a blindside flanker, who will start for the injured Ollivon. Kevin Gourdon will make his Six Nations debut and he has been one of the stand-out players for Top 14 leaders La Rochelle this season.

His impressive display against New Zealand caught my eye - with nine carries,   more than 50 metres made, two clean breaks and four defenders beaten - and he could be one to watch this season.

Louis Picamoles, meanwhile, will look to impress on his return to France, having swapped the Top 14 for the Premiership this season with a move to Northampton Saints.

France were dealt a major blow in the lead-up to the Championship when the talented Wesley Fofana suffered a torn Achilles tendon which will keep him out for the rest of the season. In his place will be a player England know well - 22-year-old Gael Fickou. The Toulouse centre scored the try that broke English hearts back in 2014 and is the one player will could adequately the gap left by Fofana.

Fickou will once again link up with Remi Lamerat in midfield, while Noves has plumped for Noa Nakaitaci as centre cover - a position he has played a number of times for club side Clermont.

On the bench, the uncapped Arthur Iturra is joined by another RBS 6 Nations newcomer in Clement Maynadier, acting as hooking cover in the absence of the injured Camille Chat. There is also plenty of experience for Noves to call on, with the likes of Rabah Slimani, Maxime Machenaud and Yoann Huget all waiting in the wings.

France had a massively disappointing championship in 2016 finishing a lowly fifth in the final standings. Noves will be determined to get off to a good start in this year's Championship and whilst a win may at Twickenham may be beyond them, he will be looking for Les Bleus to compete at all aspects of the game.

Even though the fixture is a tricky one to start the competition on, it’s hard to see France changing that record and one can only see another England victory.
France always are heavy infringers in the forwards and England’s kickers will keep the scoreboard ticking over.  England by two scores

England 30 France 17


ITALY v WALES

And so, last but not least, the final of this trio of tasty encounters -  Sunday afternoon in Rome will see Wales travel to face their nemesis Italy in a predicted warm but damp encounter at the Stadio Olympico. Wales will be very keen to avoid a banana skin start to the championship and their notorious slow burn approach to the competition in recent seasons and their poor Autumn form leaves them open and vulnerable again to another Italian nightmare.

Let’s start with Italy. It’s been 10 years since Italy last beat Wales in Rome and Azzuri boss Conor O’Shea has played it safe in the hope of another upset. He has kept faith with his team which showed improved Autumn form with a side including 10 of the starting line-up that accounted for South Africa in November for Sunday’s 6 Nations clash against Wales.

Edoardo Gori's is recall at scrum-half instead of Giorgio Bronzini represents a solitary change from the back division that started the Springboks clash in Florence. Carlo Canna continues at outside half with the talented Tomasso Allen providing an option off the bench.

Surprisingly – given his great recent form; that means no place for in-form Exeter centre Michele Campagnaro, who is named on the bench with Luke McLean and Tommaso Benvenuti continuing their midfield partnership.

The evergreen Skipper Sergio Parisse, meanwhile, will win his 122nd cap, packing down in a back-row that also includes Six Nations debutant Maxime Mbanda. Mbanda is one of five total changes along with Gori from the team which won that historic victory. The other players recalled are Abraham Steyn, lock George Biagi and prop Andrea Lovotti

The team is very experienced and O’Shea has resisted the temptation to blood any new caps in what is sure to be a bruising encounter. The bulk of the side coming from Pro 12 club sides - Treviso and Zebre; with only Parisse and tighthead prop Lorenzo Cittadini playing outside Italy. 

So on to Wales and unfortunately what looked like a promising squad with Seven uncapped players has not materialised into the final starting XV. A massive disappointment and once again shows the lack of vision and ambition from the Welsh team management. Wales have not learned that you need to blood new players and bring them on in the caldron of a competitive match. The Welsh approach which has failed dismally is to pick a second-string team for their weakest Autumn international and then when they play badly stay conservative and resist change. In the meantime, England and Ireland have progressed and built up experience in their fringe players by introducing them alongside the senior players so they can taste the big time in a winning and higher standard side. When will they ever learn? Clearly not in this year’s championship.

Robert Howley has resisted the temptation to make wholesale changes and has gone extremely conservatively with the bulk of the team which was victorious against the stuttering Springboks in their last encounter in Cardiff.

Rather like O’Shea, he has retained 10 of that winning side with only five changes as Wales target a strong start ahead of next week's Principality Stadium appointment with Six Nations title holders England.

Rhys Webb is recalled at scrum half after missing most of Wales' autumn Test series this season through injury, with Scarlets pair Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies teaming up in midfield and 86 times-capped Jamie Roberts named on the bench.  Sam Warburton is named at blind side flanker and will form a strong back row with Justin Tipuric and Gloucester’s Ross Moriarty. 

Warburton has shown simply no form in club rugby and after an anonymous Autumn, he really should not be anywhere near this match day squad. The omission of the dangerous, in-form Thomas Young shows a lamentable lack of judgment and I fear it will backfire badly on Wales. Young does not even make the bench.

In the pack, Nicky Smith takes the Loose head position in the absence of the injured Gethin Jenkins keeping out Scarlet’s Rob Evans and will pack down with Ken Owens and Samson Lee in the front row. Again – no place for the in-form Cardiff Blues hooker Kristian Dacey with Scott Baldwin named on the bench.

The back three features Leigh Halfpenny at full back with Liam Williams and George North on the wings. Again – a massive opportunity missed as North has been struggling for form and Howley opts not to cap either Steff Evans or Ashton Hewitt on the wing.

Luke Charteris and Taulupe Falatau are both ruled out with injury and join long term absentees Jenkins, Bradley Davies, and Dan Lydiate.

Wales should be confident given the strength of their starting line-up and the fact that most of the Italian team is drawn from the Pro 12 whipping boys teams of Zebre and Treviso. Carlo Canna is an accomplished kicker and Wales will want to avoid giving away kickable penalties. They cannot afford a slow start and will want to build morale. Nothing less than a convincing victory will satisfy the Welsh supporters and I fully expect this team to deliver albeit a missed opportunity. Wales comfortable winners by 12 points.

Italy 14 Wales 26

SIX NATIONS TOURNAMENT PREVIEW 2017 – ONLY THE STRONG SURVIVE!

SIX NATIONS PREVIEW 2017 – ONLY THE STRONG SURVIVE!

It’s welcome back to another season of Six Nations rugby and your correspondent is whetting his lips at the prospect of this year’s tournament which promises to be a cracker!

The dreaded bonus comes into play in an attempt to promote tries and running rugby and that should favour the form team England as they have the highest try scoring record with 45 tries in the past three seasons. By contrast, Scotland have only crossed the goal line 21 times over the same period. I am personally not sure this addition is really required. The Six Nations has had a total of 194 tries over the past three seasons – an average of 64 tries and last season – a record total of 71 tries. This contrasts massively over the period from 2011-13 where there was a paltry total of only 134 tries were scored giving an average of 44 tries a season with a low point of 37 tries in the grind of 2013. 

In order to ensure that a Grand Slam is rightly given the status it deserves, the points for winning matches have been changed as follows:

• The team that wins the match shall be awarded four Match Points or (if it scores four tries or more in the process) five Match Points.
• The team that loses the match shall be awarded no Match Points or (if it scores four tries or more in the process or loses by a margin of seven points or fewer) one Match Point or (if it scores four tries or more in the process and loses by a margin of seven points or fewer) two Match Points.
• Teams that draw a match shall each be awarded two Match Points and any of them that scores four tries or more in the process shall be awarded a further one Match Point.
• A Team that wins all five of its Matches (a "Grand Slam") shall be awarded a further three Match Points.

I hope you are all following that logic. Based on the new scoring – what would it have done to the 2016 table? Would it have changed things? Alas no. Of the fifteen matches in 2016 – only 4 games had a team scoring more than four tries. Ireland would have picked up 2 bonus points and Wales and England one point each. The table standings would have been just the same and it would have had no impact whatsoever. So why bother? Answers on a postcard to RBS Six Nations. 

However, despite my scepticism -  given the new rules, and with a British and Irish Lions Tour next summer – there is every encouragement for teams to focus on attack and score as many tries as possible. Let’s all hope we get the result it was planned to encourage. 

As we approach the one-week to go countdown, as usual it is hard to call who will win the championship and it’s going to a very interesting competition. Reigning champions England have it all to lose. Can Ireland relive the fairy tale of their win over the All Blacks in Chicago? Can Wales bounce back after disappointing performances in the Autumn? As usual, I have spent a long time this winter watching and analysing players and coaching performances All be revealed as I analyse and assess this season’s runners and riders:

ENGLAND

Eddie Jones’ team goes from strength to strength. They won an outstanding 2016 Six Nations Grand Slam, dominated Australia in their own backyard with an outstanding summer tour and then carried that form and strength forward into an extremely impressive Autumn. 

Jones has quite simply been a revelation in the England set up. He has brought a more disciplined approach and has not been frightened to take risks and blood new players. England are now in sight of the All Blacks consecutive unbeaten games record and England fans must be hoping for the rare treat of a back to back Grand Slam.

This time last year – we were looking at Elliot Daly, Jack Clifford and the outstanding Maro Itoje to make their England debuts. They now look like they own the shirts and that is testament to the new regime installed by Jones and his coaching assistants – most notably Paul Gustard, and forwards guru Steve Borthwick. 

Eddie Jones has named three uncapped players in his Six Nations squad, and as expected, has named perennial bad boy Dylan Hartley as captain again in his 34-man squad. Hartley must be favourite to be handed the Lions Captaincy and he will wont to keep his nose clean this tournament. 
Hartley is fit to resume the captaincy against France on 4 February after serving his latest suspension for a challenge on Leinster’s Sean O’Brien during Champions Cup duty last year.

Uncapped trio Mike Williams, Bath prop Nathan Catt and Saracens playmaker Alex Lozowski are all included, while Ellis Genge has also been recalled.
Genge broke into the national set-up in the Six Nations last year, making his debut as a replacement against Wales in May and was an ever-present on the fringes of the team for the remainder of 2016 only to be axed from the Elite Player Squad on as the end of 2016 fell. His Strong performances for a spluttering Leicester side against Munster, Saracens and Wasps have catapulted the combative front row back right back into contention for a starting place in the absence of several injured players. 

Also, present in the squad, having missed the two-day training camp in Brighton earlier this month, are flanker Jack Clifford, centre Henry Slade and lock Joe Launchbury. Jones will be sweating on the fitness of Clifford and James Haskell for France as both are carrying injuries and look real doubts for the first fixture.
The squad has some interesting twists. England have named four loose head props chasing one position. Mako Vunipola looked to have established himself as England's first choice loose head prop, starting their last eight Tests including all four November internationals, the whitewash in Australia and a Grand Slam decider last year in Paris.

But the Saracens man will be missing for the RBS 6 Nations with a knee injury meaning that a spot has opened up in England's starting line-up.

Joe Marler, who has been Vunipola's main challenger for the starting spot in recent seasons, would have been the obvious pick to step in, but he is only just recovering from a broken leg but such is quality of medical backup for today’s professional sports – he looks a possible contender to make a Lazarus style recovery to face Les Bleus at HQ on February 4th. 

Wasps Matt Mullen who has racked up a mere 13 caps over the past seven years will also be competing with Genge for a starting position but looks more likely to be selected as an impact player off the bench. 

One of the big questions for Jones will be what he does with his back three especially the choices available to him on the wings. He has favoured Bath’s Anthony Watson and Exeter’s Jack Nowell for much of his time in charge. However, both were injury absentees in the Autumn, with Jonny May, Marland Yarde, Elliot Daly and Semesa Rokoduguni all featuring on the wing.

With Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola both missing out with injuries and Clifford and Haskell struggling for fitness, it will be intriguing to see who Jones puts as his back row against France. I think he will start with Launchbury and Kruis as his second row and risk Itoje with Tom Wood and Nathan Hughes as a new look England back row. 

The new bonus points do favour England who have the luxury of having the three Blue teams at home. They will be hoping for a try fest opportunity against Italy and France and certainly won’t fear a Scotland team which has an absolutely abysmal record at Twickenham. 

It’s hard to not see England dominating the championship again and I feel back to back titles are on the cards. England will easily see off an injury ravaged French select before once again keeping a welsh crowd subdued in Cardiff. It all comes down to the final day in Dublin. I feel Ireland will be a game too far and an England defeat but the bittersweet moment will also mean another trophy!

Final Position: 1st – Champions! 

IRELAND

A dreadful World Cup was followed up with a mediocre 2016 Six Nations. So, where on earth did that earth shattering performance come from against New Zealand in Chicago? And it wasn’t just a one off. Ireland also put Australia to the sword and with a stronger referee, they might even have been the All Blacks again on a cold night in Dublin. 

The team had a simply sensational Autumn. This has been carried forward with strong showings from Leinster, Munster and Connacht in the European Champions Cup and Irish eyes are again smiling. 

Joe Schmidt has named three uncapped players in a very large squad of 40 for the opening two games of this year's RBS 6 Nations against Scotland and Italy. Munster trio Niall Scannell, Rory Scannell and Andrew Conway are all in line to earn their first caps for Ireland.

All three have been rewarded for a string of impressive performances for Munster with Conway in particular shining in his provinces' weekend Champions Cup victory over Racing 92. 

Leinster’s talismanic Johnny Sexton has been included in the initial Irish squad despite going off injured while playing for Leinster in the Champions Cup on Friday. The 31-year-old outside half limped out of Leinster's 24-24 Champions Cup draw in Castres on Friday night with calf trouble, but the injury is not thought to be severe enough to keep him out of the Six Nations opener.

Elsewhere, Schmidt has been ruthless and has controversially left out Richardt Strauss and Rhys Ruddock, while Connacht's Quinn Roux and Bordeaux's Ian Madigan are also not included in the 40-man squad.

Joey Carbery and Jared Payne are both out due to injury, but are expected to return to the fold when fit later in the tournament.

Of the omissions, Ian Madigan is perhaps the player Ireland will miss most but he knew the risks to his international future by choosing to take the French Euros on offer in the famous wine country. 

I have always been a big Tommy Bowe fan but unfortunately he looks past his best so surely this would have been a perfect opportunity to include the exciting Leinster flyer Adam Byrne? Personally, I also think Craig Gilroy is very fortunate to make the squad as he hasn't done much this year in my eyes either to justify his inclusion. 

Ireland have the talent and a lot will depend on the fitness of key players. Sexton is always an injury worry and Ireland haven't yet found an adequate replacement. I wouldn't be surprised if Joe Schmidt goes with Rory Scannell on the bench to cover 10 and 12 like he did with Madigan for so long and pick one other who could cover wing and full back. However, given Sextons recent completion rates of games maybe Ulster’s Paddy Jackson is the safer option as he will inevitably be called upon.

CJ Stander was the outstanding ball carrier in the pool stages of the Champions Cup and Connacht’s Tiernan O’Halloran has also caught my eye with very solid performances and who will hope to add to his three Ireland caps. 

The fixture list has once again not been kind to them. Ireland starts with two tricky away games. They open with a tough game against a greatly improved Scotland at Murrayfield followed by a potential banana skin trip to Rome to face an Italian team who will fancy their chances of unsettling Wales in the opening salvo. A home game against France should give them a victory before more toil with Wales away on a Friday night game before the final home fixture and possible championship decider against England. 

That final match and its potential as a championship decider is a mouth-watering prospect coming on the Saturday after St. Paddy’s day.  Ireland need to win in Scotland and then momentum will carry them through Italy and France. The Wales game is probably the riskiest. Ireland have a good record in Cardiff but if Wales can gain some momentum as they usually improve through the tournament and all hopes of a Grand Slam will be over. I see four wins and a party pouping finish over England but no title.  

Final Position: 2nd

WALES

OMG – where do you start? Will Carling wrote a very good piece this past week on why England fans looking for more of the same are missing the point. Carling’s erudite piece made an impassioned point that teams need to keep on developing and improving and more of the same is a recipe for stagnation and decline. 

It’s clear those views are not shared by the WRU. They missed a massive opportunity to refresh their coaching line up and frankly blew it with a head in the sand “steady as you go” attitude by continuing faith in Warren Gatland and his coaching team. 

However much spin the WRU and coaches put on their Autumn performances highlighting three wins out of four – the Welsh public have been desperately underwhelmed and have voted with their feet with increasing numbers of empty seats and unsold tickets at the Principality Stadium.

With Warren Gatland again on Lions duty, Robert Howley is again acting Head honcho and he has brought in the exciting Alex King as his attack coach. Wales have been promising a new expansive game but it wasn't evident in the Autumn games where Wales were simply awful against Australia and even worse against a plucky Japan side who deserved a victory. Wins over a rebuilding Argentina and the worst ever Springboks side really were no yardstick to measure how good or bad Wales really are. 

The continued belief in aimless kicking and one dimensional attack have severely weakened Wales and I do fear this could be either a good rebuilding tournament at best or a catastrophic wooden spoon at worst.

Rob Howley has at least shown some invention and intent with seven uncapped players making the initial squad line-up. Wales have been particularly guilty of not bringing through new players into their set up, so the squad at least shows some fresh ideas and faces. Let’s hope they actually stay in the squad and I call on Howley to make some bold selections in the 2017 competition.

The uncapped players in the Welsh squad including English based players - Wasps flanker Thomas Young and Leicester back Owen Williams. It is an alarming fact that almost 100 Welsh eligible players are not plying their trade in England and the dreaded “Gatland’s Law” mean Wales will damage their team line up with the enforcement of the regulations. 

The other uncapped players chosen by Howley are Ospreys flanker Olly Cracknell, Newport Gwent Dragons wing Ashton Hewitt, Scarlets wing Steff Evans, Ospreys lock Rory Thornton and Scarlets scrum-half Aled Davies.

One of the biggest talking points is the choice of captain. Alun Wyn Jones takes over the mantle form Sam Warburton who has been badly struggling for form and consistency with noted (and hated) commentator Stuart Barnes stating clearly that Warburton is not playing well enough to merit selection let alone captaincy. Howley will be hoping for a Robshaw-esque recovery in form for Warburton and with old warhorse Gethin Jenkins missing the entire competition as he undergoes surgery, Wyn Jones was the obvious choice – an outstanding leader in his own right and deservedly new Welsh skipper on merit. He led The British & Irish Lions to victory in the final Test against Australia in 2013, he has had the armband for Wales on five previous occasions and he is Ospreys' club skipper.

Warburton though, will be a tough act to follow.  He has captained his country more than any other player in Welsh history and led Wales to a World Cup semi-final, and two consecutive RBS 6 Nations crowns. Jones, perhaps inspired by the opportunity of captaincy for the British & Irish Lions Tour to New Zealand this summer, has just got better and better this year, and at 31 - with 111 Test caps to his name he remains an outstanding player and leader.

Dan Lydiate joins Gethin Jenkins in missing the whole tournament whilst Blues half backs Lloyd Williams and Gareth Anscombe have been discarded.

Kristian Dacey has been the outstanding hooker in Wales but is unlikely to oust the “King of Carmarthen” Ken Owens from the starting line-up and will face Scott Baldwin for the bench slot. I think Howley will play safe and pick Dan Biggar and Gareth Davies as his starting half backs – I would have liked to see Sam Davies and Aled Davies get the nod if Wales are truly looking at a new expansive game. 

In the pack – Rob Evans should see off Nicky Smith at Loose head to join Samson Lee as props in a string looking front row. Wyn Jones will likely line up with the aggressive Jake ball and again I would like to see Howley take some risk and drop Warburton picking Tom Young alongside Ross Moriarty and Justin Tipuric in a new look back row with the outstanding Taulupe Faletau still struggling with injury and fitness.

Wales start their campaign with the noted banana skin in Rome. Lose their and it could be wooden spoon. Wales return at home against England, away in Edinburgh, back for Ireland and then the dead rubber in Paris. I think Wales will surprise and will run England close and beat Ireland but lose in Paris.
Three wins and 3rd place.

Final Position: 3rd 

FRANCE

After a dreadful 2016 when France flattered to deceive and ended up with more defeats than victories, there were some bright shoots of hope of a more positive future for Les Bleus.  

There were promising signs of recovery in their summer tour when deprived of his Top 14 semi-finalists and with a few injuries, Noves took something of an experimental side to Argentina. On that tour, he gave a number of debuts, but perhaps none have made a bigger impact than Kevin Gourdon, who has started each of France's last five Tests. The positive summer was followed with narrow Autumn defeats to both Australia and New Zealand. 

French rugby in the Pro 14 continues to be of a high and improving standard and announcements to stop picking new players on residential status will give hops of a new renaissance in French running rugby.

But before I get too carried away, France are still France. Annoyingly inconsistent and for this championship Guy Noves has a massively injury ravaged squad. Noves has named four uncapped players in his 32-man squad as France look to end a 7 years’ trophy-less spell in the Six Nations.

La Rochelle prop Mohamed Boughanmi, Clermont Auvergne lock Arthur Iturria, Brive back-rower Fabien Sanconnie and Castres full-back Geoffrey Palis are the men who could make their international debuts after being selected by Noves. Palis who was included in the summer squad could make his Test debut having come very close last summer. His ability to play both at full-back or on the wing, could make him a valuable bench option at some point in the Championship

There are also recalls for Raphael Lakafia, Mathieu Bastareaud
and Toulouse centre Yann David. Yann David has been in fine form for Toulouse and with Wesley Fofana out of the whole tournament he could be forming a formidable partnership with Bastareaud. David’s last appearance in the Blue shirt coming against New Zealand all the way back in the distant memory of 2009.

I am not and have never been a fan of Bastareaud but with Henry Chavancy also out with injury, Noves has had to resort to recalling the Toulon centre as he seeks to unsettle England in the opening exchange at Twickenham. Mathieu Bastareaud has scored a mere 3 tries (yes really) in the course of 40 appearances (from the start, or the 'bench') in the French jersey. A centre, remember - but who plays like a ninth forward! 

Eddie Ben Arous is another big loss for France at prop and Noves continues to flout the norm with the selection of mainly No.8 forwards in his back row. In the second test against Argentina, Noves selected a back row of Kevin Gourdon, Loann Goujon and Louis Picamoles - a trio of No.8s with the former duo packing down on the flanks

The tendency to mix and match half-back pairings has been a common theme for French coaches in recent times with very mixed success. Noves has continued this trait although he has stabilised the French squad with a much more consistent line up than previous regimes with their mad tendency to chop and change. An injury to the consistent François Trinh-Duc has disrupted his plans, and the Toulon ten is still on the comeback trail.

As a result Noves has gone with the four half-backs who played the last two Tests in November, scrum-halves Maxime Machenaud and Baptiste Serin, and fly-halves Camille Lopez and Jean-Marc Doussain. Serin in particular was very impressive off the bench against the All Blacks and will push Machenaud hard for the starting shirt.

France remain dangerous and a team to write off at your peril. Scott Spedding has always impressed me at full back and the south islanders Vakatawa and Nakaitaci are deadly finishers.

France face England at Twickenham and it’s very hard to see them come away with anything from that match. They follow with a home game against Scotland and nothing less than a win will do before a tough trip to Dublin. France finish with another away trip to Rome before the final finale against Wales at Stade de France. Three wins and 4th place. A lack of bonus points will put them behind Wales.

Final Position: 4th   

SCOTLAND

No longer the whipping boys, Scotland are looking much improved after a disappointing Six Nations followed the highs of the World Cup. Coach Vern Cotter will hand over the coaching reins to Gregor Townsend at the end of the campaign and will be hopeful of unsettling the big boys and sneaking a few wins in between. After a fourth-placed finish last year - that included victories over both Italy and France - Cotter's final Championship at the helm could be his best yet and a fitting finale. Scotland have not cracked the top three in the table since 2013 and they haven't won three games in a Championship since 2006.

Despite that dismal recent history, the squad has a settled look to it this year and they have three home games in 2017 against Ireland, Wales and Italy which are all winnable fixtures. 

Vern Cotter named two uncapped players in his final Six Nations with the inclusion of Edinburgh forwards Cornell du Preez and Simon Berghan. Controversially when many nations are calling for stronger rules to prevent international tourists turning up in national jerseys, Cotter has little choice to continue to select residential players and the loose grandparent rules to bolster his squad.

Flanker Du Preez, who played for the South African under-20s team, became eligible to represent Scotland last year after completing three years of residency and has scored 14 tries in 71 appearances for Edinburgh. He was included in the squad as an injury replacement during the Autumn internationals but did not feature in a match. His club mate Simon Berghan, is another foreign import who was born in New Zealand and spent most of his career there. He qualifies through his Scottish grandfather.

Scotland's Six Nations hopes have been dealt a significant blow after it was confirmed that another of their “foreign legion”, influential prop WP Nel will miss the entire competition. Nel had been one of the outstanding players to come through last season and even though Vern Cotter named the South Africa-born tighthead in his 37-man squad for the Championship, he has been forced to withdraw after aggravating a neck injury while on duty for club side Edinburgh last week.

His chances of joining Warren Gatland's touring party for the summer trip to New Zealand may also be thrown into doubt after Scottish Rugby announced the 30-year-old will meet with a specialist to decide whether surgery is required. Scotland are already reeling from losing David Denton, Peter Horne, Rory Hughes, Alasdair Dickinson and Rory Sutherland to injury.

Elsewhere, I am pleased to see the popular Gloucester centre Matt Scott has earned a recall to Scotland's squad for the upcoming Six Nations. Scott was omitted from Scotland's November Test plans but has worked his way back into Vern Cotter's pool after scoring 12 tries in 18 games this season for the Cherry and Whites.

Stuart Hogg is the one truly world class back in the Scotland team but there is a solid look to the Bravehearts with Tommy Seymour, Tim Visser, Duncan Taylor and Sean Maitland alongside Scott in a strong line up. Duncan Weir will fight Finn Russell at 10 and Greig Laidlaw has once again shown very good form coming into the tournament.

Scotland lack the same firepower in the forwards but the Gray brothers are also in strong form and Scotland will be tough to beat especially at Murrayfield.
The fixtures have been kind and Scotland start against Ireland at home. That will certainly be a hard game to call and is winnable. They follow that with a trip to Paris before welcoming Wales with an inevitable defeat away in England and a final “eight pointer” against Italy. I think Scotland will frighten both Ireland and Wales but facing the dragon after possible defeats will be a big ask. I don’t see Scotland winning in Paris or London – so one win and another case of what might have been...

Final Position: 5th  


ITALY

Former Harlequins boss and Ireland legend Conor O'Shea has taken over the Azzurri and assembled a strong looking coaching line up as Italy seek to have a stronger six nations. The selection of Brendan Venter as his assistant is a master stroke and anyone who has come against a team prepared by O’Shea knows his teams have a never say die attitude ingrained in them. 

O’Shea is in charge for his first Six Nations as a coach and has selected a 32-man squad based on experience over experimentation.

The evergreen Sergio Parisse will skipper the squad in what will be the No.8's 14th Championship for the Azzurri. Every season we think it’s his last and then he dusts himself off and leads form the front at every opportunity. A true legend and rugby hall of famer!

The two additions from the autumn squad are Zebre pair - prop Dario Chistolini and lock Federico Ruzza - the latter the only uncapped player in the entire squad.

In the Autumn, there was much to cheer as O'Shea's new look side claimed an historic victory over South Africa but then followed it with a disappointing loss to Tonga in their final autumn clash.

O’Shea will be looking for wins over France, Wales and Scotland in the tournament and Italy are massively boosted by the return to form of several of their key players at the same time. Carlo Canna and Tomasso Allen have both been in sparkling form and give him his first difficult selection challenge. personally, I would start with Canna at 10 and give the versatile Allen an outing at 12. His passing and kicking vision mean he is too good not to be starting and gives O’Shea options to change the strategy of a game.  

The outstanding Giorgio Bronzini gives O’Shea another selection enigma. Does he stick with the young scrum half who was so impressive in the Autumn or revert to the stable and experienced 53 cap Edoardo Gori who has failed to dislodge Bronzini from the starting line up at Treviso. 

Italy will be solid in the pack and if they can get the ball out to Michele Campgnaro then any team is in danger. With four tries in 25 Tests, Campgnaro is an experienced international, but the talented centre has had an injury-disrupted couple of seasons since moving to Exeter Chiefs.

He is however another in outstanding form and he turned in a storming two-try performance as Exeter beat Ulster 31-19 at Sandy Park last Sunday. His first score was a perfect example of what the centre brings to Italy - pace, power and an eye for the try line. Tries have certainly been lacking for Italy in the Six Nations with the Azzurri only scoring an average of 8 tries in the past three seasons.

Italy open against Wales in Rome and the Welsh will not be looking forward to that encounter. Expect a very tough game and a narrow defeat. From there, I can only see Italy having another chance of a win against France. That game as I said earlier; is a must win for France and Noves cannot survive another Italian defeat in Rome. I don’t see Italy winning away this season so no wins and another wooden spoon. A disappointing competition for O’Shea but something to build on for the future. If only Parisse was ten years younger…

Final Position: 6th