SIX NATIONS PREVIEW 2016 – WILL THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FIGHT BACK?

As we approach the one-week to go countdown, the 2016 Six Nations tournament is poised to be a significant one.  Just a few months ago, we had the massive disappointment of not one Northern Hemisphere team making the semi-finals of the World Cup. This was a shattering blow to European rugby and it will be critical that this years tournament shows a rise in standards as well as being as highly competitive as usual.

It’s going to a very interesting competition. We have new coaches at the helm of France and England. The retirements of many Six Nations stalwarts have weakened many teams and left them with significant rebuilding for the future and all teams with a point to prove. Will the Northern Hemisphere fight back? The rise of Argentina and Japan has not gone unnoticed and with a Lions tour just 18 months away, the tournament gives many younger players the opportunity to grow an impress on the international stage.

As usual, I have spent a long time this winter watching and analysing players and coaching performances. The European Champions Cup has shown that the power (and money) is with the French and English clubs and fact that for the first time no team form the Pro 12 has made the quarter finals is almost as significant for Wales, Ireland, Scotland, and Italy as their exits from the World Cup from both the summer tours and autumn internationals. Its clear the Celtic fringe needs to show some form in this competition or the talent drain to the call of English schilling and French franc will further depress rugby competitions and talent development for the future.

Let’s review the teams and their likely prospects in the Tournament ahead:

IRELAND

A dreadful World Cup on the back of a double title winning Six Nations has taken the shine and lustre off Joe Schmidt’s record and slowed (at least temporarily) his rise up the list of candidates for the Future All Blacks coaching job.  There is talk of a crisis in Irish Rugby with the provincial teams struggling and players being coaxed away from the emerald isle. Confidence remains low after being run rugged by a talented Argentina team on a sobering Sunday afternoon at the Millennium Stadium.

So what went wrong?

The strength in depth was tested and the newcomers were found wanting. Gone is captain Paul O'Connell to the happy place that is international retirement and the land of hilk and money in the Top 14. He is a massive loss to Ireland and it will be interesting to see who emerge as the real leaders are in the Irish team. Rory Best, the Ulster hooker has one of the biggest boots to fill in World rugby having taken over the Irish captaincy but he is Ireland’s most experienced player and will win his 90th cap when he leads his nation out against Wales in Dublin on February 7.

Recent club form has been poor in both the Pro 12 and the European Cup and it is a shock to the Irish system that no team has made it out of the group stages for the first time.  There is more woe with the news that Marty Moore and Keith Earls are heading to England next season at Wasps and Saracens, whilst Ian Madigan is heading to Bordeaux-Begles and Limerick flyer Simon Zebo also being linked with a move to France.

Injuries are once again taking their toll and the loss of Peter O’Mahony, Marty Moore, Mike Ross, Cian Healy, and probably most disappointedly their best young forward Iain Henderson has severely weakened the Irish pack strength at least for the first few games. Their prime predator in the backs, Tommy Bowe, will also be absent for the whole campaign, with first-choice centres Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne having only just returned from lengthy lay-offs.

And of course there’s concern and doubt over key playmaker Johnny Sexton, with the fly-half - who has had such concussive issues in the past - having taken another blow to the head at the weekend. Ian Madigan is nowhere near the talent of Sexton and he lacks the key spark in game management. If Sexton is absent for any games, then I fear Ireland could have some real difficulties.

In my opinion, the loss of natural born leader Peter O'Mahony is probably the biggest blow of all.

But despite all this, Joe Schmidt is no mug and Ireland will still have a competitive, well coached team and passionate support which will make them remain formidable opponents for any team and hard to beat at home.

Ulster's powerhouse centre Stuart McCloskey and Gerry Rigrose are powerful additions to the Irish squad and look real future superstars. Kearney remains a reliable full back and Trimble and Earls are powerful finishers so Ireland will still have the ability to test any team and give them an inch and you could easily let a game slip away.

The fixture list has also not been kind to them. Ireland starts with a tough home game against Wales followed by a tricky away trip to Paris after a six-day turnaround. Then more toil with England away before final home fixtures against Italy and Scotland.

The Wales game is probably the most significant. Lose than and I can see away losses in both France and England before two narrow home victories. Beat Wales and then France looks winnable. Twickenham will be too hard so at best 4 wins and at worst 2 wins. I think Wales will triumph in Dublin – so no three peat as champions.  

Final Position: 5th

ENGLAND

RWC15 - What can you say? A home World Cup, the Red Rose with a tough qualifying group but the easiest passage to the final and a final against the All Blacks with whom England have an impressive record. A repeat of 2003 with a World Cup win or at worse 2007 with a second place finish.

Err no! Unfortunately the script didn’t quite follow through that way.

England were lamentable in the World Cup and look poorly coached, lacking fitness, with poor selections and game planning. A dreadful decision against Wales cost them a draw and likely progression whilst they totally outclassed against Australia and an early exit and finance pain for the RFU. Stuart Lancaster paid the price for his strange selections with his job. The obsession with playing Sam Burgess, at Centre, didn’t work, the dropping George Ford and odd substitutions just added to the confusion. . You wouldn’t believe it could happen to England until it did. The biggest challenge facing him was he didn’t seem to know his best team.

So on to a new era and Australia coaching legend Eddie Jones arrives fresh from Japan via South Africa and Yo Sushi.  An interesting training squad with several major omissions, a new captain and a bold selection for the away trip to Edinburgh with three new caps in the starting squad.

I think Jones will have a good tournament. Despite the dreadful World Cup – England have a formidable pack and lots of running talent in the backs. Many of his star players are coming right back into form and Dylan Hartley is a formidable captain despite his past record of misdemeanours. Hartley has been subject to quite dreadful coverage in the press. I believe he could be Eddie Jones trump card and no team will relish facing a wounded England with captain Hartley at the helm. .

Saracens outside-half Owen Farrell has been outstanding since the World Cup in his club’s remarkable run of victories and should be in the England starting side to face Scotland, whether it be it at outside-half or inside-centre.

The new squad additions are very exciting. Josh Beaumont, son of former captain Bill, was one of seven uncapped players included in Eddie Jones's first England squad. Sale's Beaumont is a powerful number eight in the mould of his father, one of England's most iconic players who led them to the grand slam in 1980 and captained the British and Irish Lions the same year.

Flanker Jack Clifford, who has taken over as openside flanker at Harlequins from England's World Cup captain Chris Robshaw, is also included, as is Robshaw, who is now playing on the blindside.

Wasps exciting centre Elliot Daly is included and has a chance to press for a team slot in the absence of injured Henry Slade, while Sam Hill, and Maro Itoje are also included with Northampton Prop Paul Hill, and Bath back Ollie Devoto look likely to join Clifford and make their debuts in England's Six Nations opener next weekend hoping for a first cap.

Of the discarded players – you have to feel for Luther Burrell. He has been treated quite abysmally by England.  The one other remaining player not to make the initial squad and raise eyebrows with Rugby Raconteur was Danny Cipriani. I watched Cipriani in several games this season and he is an amazing talent with great vision and game control. I think all the other coaches breathed a sigh of relief at his exclusion as make no mistake he is a game changer.

England has the strength in depth to be competitive and win matches with a modest change to their playing style.  The question is can they start with a win in Edinburgh? Murrayfield has been a graveyard for many England hopes and Scotland’s improved performances at the World Cup will give Jones new look team a major challenge of an opener.

England follow up the Scotland trip with another away trip and easy victory in Rome followed by Ireland and Wales at home before finishing in Paris. I think England will grow with maturity and will be close to being title winners. 

Final Position: 2^nd  

WALES

Wales can look back at the World Cup with some pride and it was phenomenal to watch a team with a back division made up of two scrum halves, two outside halves, a winger playing centre go on to close out a victory at the hallowed turf of Hq. But ultimately the final outcome was a disappointment and I can’t help but feel a sense of underachievement.  The horrendous injury crisis that impacted the Dragons finally was too much and after a Rourke's Drift win over England, they failed to take their chances against a 13 man Australia team and 2 minutes of madness cost them victory over South Africa.  Report card says – great effort but could do better.

Warren Gatland and his coaching team have fresh contracts and will look to build onwards with a Six Nations title in 2016. They have the most experienced squad in terms of caps and also Six Nations games and after blooding many new players over the past few seasons only one new cap – Scarlets scrum half Aled Davies is named in the training squad.

Injuries have still robbed Wales of the talismanic Leigh Halfpenny whilst Scott Williams, Dan Lydiard and Rhys Webb are also still missing whilst Captain Sam Warburton, Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams, Hallam Amos and Gareth Anscombe are just returning and all short of match fitness.

Dan Biggar was arguably the best Northern Hemisphere player in the World Cup and his form has continued at club level. I am pleased to see Gatland recall Cardiff Blues pair Tom James and Josh Turnbull.

Tom James has been on fire at the Blues and it is really good to see him return to the squad. The Rhymney flyer has always had a tempestuous relationship with Gatland and has publically commented when dropped from squads or been left on the bench. Several seasons away at Exeter under the watchful eye of master coach Rob Baxter have transformed his appetite for the game and I fully expect him to start against Ireland.

Josh Turnbull has also impressed at club level and with Lydiard out for the start of the competition, he remains a useful option off the bench being able to play at Flanker or No.8.

Justin Tipuric should and will likely partner Warburton and Faletau in the Welsh back row and I think Gareth Anscombe and Liam Williams will fight it out at Full Back. Anscombe has looked very sharp in his two games for the Blues and Liam Williams is real talent but I’m not sure I would risk his fitness in the first match.

In the forwards, Gethin Jenkins looks to be probably playing in his last Six Nations and will want to go out on a high. Samson Lee is back fit with young Tomos Francis continuing as his understudy.  A steady powerhouse with the wonderful Alun Wyn-Jones and either Luke Charteris or Bradley Davies will give the welsh pack a solid shape.

Wales look stable and strong. Their defence and fitness is unrivalled in World rugby but critics of “Warrenball” rightly point out that it can be predictable and easy to defend against in attack. Gatland has revealed that he has some new tactics and attack formations and the key to Wales success will be scoring tries. Biggar will kick the goals and keep the scoreboard ticking over.

Wales look like tournament favourites and the key to their success will be winning the first game in Dublin. They follow with the test of a much improved Scotland and France at home before England away and Italy at home to finish. The schedule is reasonable and Wales tend to improve through the tournament. Twickenham will hold no fears but probably will be the tournament decider. Win there and another grand slam beckons, lose and the title still looks within their grasp. Too good to fail? We shall see but my crystal ball tells me Sam Warburton will picking up that trophy at the end of competition.

Final Position: 1^st - CHAMPIONS

SCOTLAND

Scotland are the one team who can look back at World cup with some form of satisfaction at their progress in the competition. Its been a long journey from the Wooden Spoon in last season's Six Nations but were two minutes away from beating Australia in their World Cup quarter-final and are in a positive frame of mind. The cruelty of that narrow loss to Australia robbed them of a deserved semi final place.

Look beyond that game and Scotland were a lot less convincing in the group games but still showed steady progress and development from the horror show of last year’s tournament. However, given the talent pool they draw from is pretty limited coach Vern Cotter has done a very good job of instilling a sense of confidence that they can compete with anyone and he is starting to build a winning mentality with his squad.

The key player in my eye is young Finn Russell. Scotland coach Vern Cotter can help to have been impressed with his performance during Glasgow’s recent 22-5 victory over Racing 92 He will take the satisfaction that his outside-half general Russell was back to something like his old self.

He scored 11 points in that match with the boot with three penalties and a conversion of Stuart Hogg’s try and he was clearly bossing play and generally playing with his customary composure that hasn’t always been evident this season

Stuart Hogg has also been in great form and the bold new Scottish squad features two uncapped players with young props Zander Fagerson and Rory Sutherland. Fagerson has been quite astonishing for a 20 year old prop and looks like a future rock for the Scottish scrum.  

The Gray brothers remain likely to pair up in the 2^nd row whilst back row options are boosted with the form of Bath's Dave Denton and there is good competition with Glasgow's Chris Fusaro and Josh Strauss, Blair Cowan and the return to the squad of the excellent John Barclay.

Injuries are like many teams; weakening the Scottish firepower in the backs with Centre Alex Dunbar ruled out of the opening two games of the Six Nations.

Dunbar has suffered a posterior thigh strain during Glasgow's European Champions Cup win over Racing 92 and will be out "for the coming weeks". This is a big blow as Dunbar was a likely starter against England if fit. It is the latest setback to affect his Test career, after rupturing knee ligaments in training before last year's Calcutta Cup match and missing the World Cup last autumn as a result.

His Glasgow team-mate Mark Bennett is another injury concern, with Scotland coach Vern Cotter rating the outside centre's chances as no better than 50-50 as he recovers from a shoulder problem.

With Dunbar ruled out, Edinburgh's Matt Scott is likely to start at inside centre in the Calcutta Cup with Saracens' Duncan Taylor in contention to join him in midfield.

Scotland has nothing to lose and I believe they will rise to the challenge this season. Murrayfield can still instil fear into any England team and this year, I think Scotland will triumph against the ‘Auld Enemy”.

A win in that first match will set Scotland up for the tricky away visit to Cardiff. Scotland have run Wales very close in many games in Cardiff and this game remains a potential banana skin for Gatland. Then the nightmare journey to Rome against their nemesis Italy followed by France at home and finishing with Ireland away in Dublin. A good season to build on – three wins. 

Final Position: 4^th  

FRANCE

Experienced Toulouse coach Guy Noves is the latest to take over the poisoned chalice of rebuilding French rugby. France have been deeply disappointing in the past two Six nations and their World Cup was little better with rumours of squad discontent off the field and little to inspire on it.

Noves has already laid out his stall with a promise of new attacking rugby, the omission of Mathieu Bastareaud, and an interesting 31 man training squad. I have never been a fan of the battering ram approach and I am delighted to see Bastareaud out as to me he is the antithesis of everything that made French rugby great.

Despite several high profile retirements – most notably Captain Thierry Dusautoir and  and hooker Dimitri Szarzewski; Noves will be looking to build on a solid forward pack and he the talent in the backs to build a creative force for the future.

I like the look of Jonathan Danty - a no-nonsense centre who has already played more than 50 times for Stade Francais and impressed against Leicester as he helped set up one of the tries.  I have also been impressed with the call up of Marvin O'Connor.  The Montpellier flyer replaces club colleague Benjamin Fall, who was injured playing in the European Challenge Cup against Harlequins last Friday.

O'Connor, capped at Under-20 level, could link up with former France Sevens team-mate Virimi Vakatawa, who was also included by new Les Bleus coach Guy Noves in his original squad.

Scott Spedding impressed me last year at full back and Wesley Fofana always is an attacking threat that hopefully will see anew lease of life with the new coaching team.

Jean-Marc Doussain and Jules Plisson are the two outside halves in the squad as Francois Trinh-Duc is currently injured but hopeful of joining the squad later in the competition. Maxime Machenaud and Morgan Parra are the two scrum-halves.

Machenaud has been a driving force behind the Parisians’ European campaign and he will battle it out with Morgan Parra who had a miserable weekend after taking a late quick tap penalty for Clermont when only a kick was needed against Bordeaux-Begles for them to secure quarter-final qualification. It has been announced that Parra will miss the season opener against Italy and uncapped Bordeaux-Begles scrum-half Baptiste Serin has joined the squad as cover.

 In the pack, the giant Uini Atonio and Eddy Ben Arous will form a solid front row. There is a powerful looking pack with a mix of old and new faces but the unanswered question will be what is the fitness of the team? French clubs and coaches do not have the obsession with fitness that for example, Welsh caches Gatland and Edwards have; and many French teams have seemed to tire and run out of steam in the latter stages of matches.

I am optimistic for the new look France and they will open with a comfortable win in Paris over the untried Italian team. They follow with another home game against Ireland that will be the first real test of the new squad’s ability to compete. I think they will have two wins before difficult away trips to Wales and Scotland before finishing with England.in Paris. Still 3 wins at least and maybe more.

 Final Position: 3^rd  

ITALY

Italy had a good Six Nations in 2015 with their first ever away victory. A tough World Cup draw teamed with Ireland and France was always going to be challenging and other than the game against Ireland, I They were poor in the World Cup and I don’t foresee a positive turnaround in fortunes for them as Coach Jacques Brunel’s swansong

Its hard to be optimistic about Italian prospects this tournament. You just cannot be inspired seeing the lumbering and immobile Kelly Haimona recalled to Italy's injury-hit squad that includes a vast 10 uncapped additions. 

The legendary long-serving number eight Sergio Parisse continues as captain, but Italy are missing 10 frontline stars ahead of their Six Nations opener against France in Paris on 6 February. 

Zebre team-mates Carlo Canna and the uncapped Edoardo Padovani will contest the fly-half berth, with Haimona likely to be deployed in the centres. Italy will also be boosted by the presence of fit-again trio of lock George Biagi and centre Giulio Bisegni. New fly-half Padovani heads a lengthy cast list of rookie additions for Italy, with front-rowers Andrea Lovotti, Matteo Zanusso and Ornel Gega joined by back-row forwards Jacopo Sarto, Abraham Steyn and Andries van Schalkwyk. Three-quarters Mattia Bellini, Tommaso Castello and David Odiete complete Italy's untested recruits, as Brunel battles a hefty casualty list.

Playmaker Tommaso Allan, tight-five duo Josh Furno and Quintin Geldenhuys and Leicester front-rower Michele Rizzo have all been ruled out of Italy's early Six Nations action.

Italy start in Paris and that will really give us a really good viewpoint on their tournament prospects. France will want to impress their new coach so despite Italy’s good recent record against Les Bleus – I don't see them getting a result. They follow that with home games against England and Scotland and finish with two away trips to Dublin and Cardiff.

I don’t see any joy for such an inexperienced squad. No wins – wooden spoon. 

Final Position: 6th

Six Nations 2015 – Final Thoughts

Introductory preamble

This is my 6th year of writing Rugby Raconteur. What started out as a few comments on matches between mates on email has expanded to become the blog we have today. I receive many positive comments and feedback from people who read Rugby Raconteur. Some friends, other people I don’t know and I want to thank everyone who reads my missives for your support.

Throughout the six years, I have focused exclusively on the Six Nations tournament. People ask me why I don’t expand this to cover British Lions, Autumn Internationals, World Cup etc. the short answer is time and the long answer is a lack of knowledge. I watch lost of European rugby – Guinness Pro 12, English Premiership, European Cup and that enables me to have a view on the players who play in they Six Nations. I don’t watch Super 15 very much or Rugby Championship in Southern Hemisphere so rather than weaken my writing and judgment – I stick to what I know.

For 2015, I am pleased that once again I have an 80% prediction rate – 12 out of 15 matches judged correctly. In the aggregate points difference – I had a 91% accuracy going into final round but given the unpredicted runaway results yesterday that dropped to a sobering 71% by the end of the tournament. Must try harder.

Anyway enough of the preamble – lets look at my final thoughts on 2015:

Judgment Day!

What a final weekend! With three teams still in the running everyone expected a tense day but no one could have written the script to this one! The greatest ever final day in Six Nations history! The destination of the silverware still in doubt until the final play and the final whistle of the third match. 240 minutes of scintillating rugby enjoyment and not for the faint hearted.

Wales started sluggishly in an error strewn 1st half in Rome going in with a single point advantage at half time. No one expected the second half display. Simply wonderful rugby from Wales who had been heavily criticised for a lack of running ruby and tries in previous rounds. Not so on this occasion. Wales were once again magnificent. Their whole season can be summed up in two halves. An awful 2nd half against England and a magical 2nd half against Italy.  A marker set down for everyone else and Ireland needing a 20 pt. victory margin to overtake Wales.

Match 2 brought Ireland to Murrayfield. Scotland surely must be up for the fight? Nothing to lose and everything to gain in a final home encounter. Well no. That’s not how the script went. No Hollywood ending for Scotland who were lamentable and quite simply the worst display by a Scottish team I have ever seen. Ireland dominated early with the evergreen O’Connell scoring an early try and never looked back. Ireland dominated the play and deservedly won the match by a record 30 points. Advantage Ireland into game 3.

England v France has thrown up some memorable games but this one will go down as a classic. A carefree England attacking well and gaining an early score. Back comes France. Then advantage England. Ben Youngs has been heavily criticised by me for his poor game against Ireland produced a man of the match performance to put England back in the ascendency and with the clock running down England on the attack needing a try to overhaul Ireland. A lost possession, scrum and France almost committing suicide with sloppy play near the end. The ball goes out to row Z and its all over Ireland are champions.

Many have criticised the judgment day format saying it gives too much advantage to the team playing last. Maybe but I think March 21st 2015 will go down as the greatest day in Six Nations rugby.

Bridesmaids

Stuart Lancaster’s England once again finishes in 2nd place in the championship. Another disappointment but England has much to be positive about going into the World Cup.  Despite horrific squad injuries, England were competitive in every match. Their big challenge is like in 2013 – they started strongly and got worse through the tournament. Defensive lapses hurt them against France and they were killed with slow ball against Ireland. 

Despite this, England can hold their heads up high. A god tournament on the build up to the World Cup – at home this autumn. Jonathan Joseph shone in the centres. Mike Brown, Jack Nowell, and Anthony Watson confounded their critics with a very attacking back 3. Ben Youngs was inconsistent but on his day is a world-beater. George Ford controlled things well at outside half. When you add the strength of the English pack then despite finishing second, it is England who can dream of World Cup glory and I confound anyone to bet against England being in the World Cup final on October 31st.

Team of the Championship – Wales

Controversial and I am not trying to show national bias but Wales for me were the best side in this Six Nations. They were the only team to win three away games and the only team who improved round after round.  Losing your first game at home to England after controlling a first half would break most teams but Wales bounced back with “job done” wins in Edinburgh and Paris before the Rourke’s Drift defensive display against Ireland and the magnificent win in Rome.

Dan Biggar became a man in this tournament and showed levels of maturity and control. Liam Williams rightly gained his place on the wing and Rhys Webb was an attacking threat at scrum half. Webb is much like Ben Youngs. Similar style and similar concentration levels – wonderful one minute awful the next. But he will improve.

In the pack, Luke Charteris was a giant and Sam Warburton absolutely back to his best with solid displays in every game. The dragon is back but sadly the World Cup looks very challenging. This six nations could be Warren Gatland’s swansong. An ignominious World Cup exit at group stage is the risk facing Wales for the remainder of 2015.

Goal kickers win matches

There is no substitute for a great kicker. Quite simply goal kickers win matches. Leigh halfpenny has set the standard again for everyone but Jonny Sexton, George Ford and Dan Biggar also gave noble efforts. When Halfpenny left the field against italy, Biggar stepped up and it was business as usual.

Greig Laidlaw was the only Scottish player to show real grit and his goal kicking accuracy was the only thing which kept Scotland from even bigger defeats. 
France and Italy struggled because a lack of a suitable goal kicker. If France who were 15-7 up against England had kicked the conversions and two penalties that followed, it could have been a different game yesterday. They need to find a kicker and fast!

Fond Farewell and Good Luck!

This Six Nations looks like it could be the last for many fantastic performers whom I doubt we will see in Six Nations 2016.

Paul O’Connell - defied his years to be an outstanding leader for Ireland but advancing years are catching up with him and an international retirement after the World Cup looks highly likely.

Gethin Jenkins – never the greatest scrummager but a fabulous loose player who has own over 100 caps and tasted Grand Slam and Lions glory. Again advancing years are catching up and I believe he will join another Welsh legend Adam Jones in international retirement.

Sergio Parisse – will we ever see him again for Italy in the Six Nations? Got to be doubts. Another centurion capper who has been the World’s best No.8 for many seasons.

Nick Easter – a surprise recall but he enjoyed his last season in the sun and contributed to England’s victories. Never the greatest No.8 but a real trier and a fabulous character.

To all those whom we ill never again see grace the Six Nations. Thank you and I wish you all the best for the future.

All Star Team

Finally my all-star line up for the 2015 Six Nations. Some controversial selections but that goes without saying

Full back:

Leigh Halfpenny – back to his very best and goal kicker extraordinaire who ran well in attack and was brace in defence, Honourable mentions for Brown, Kearney, McLean and Hogg but Halfpenny gets the nod

Wingers:

Liam Williams – some sublime performances from Sanjay. Close against Bowe and Watson

Noa Nakaitaci – two wonderful cameos for France. Just where has this guy been? Honourable mention for Jack Nowell who comes a narrow second.


Centres:

Jonathan Joseph – wonderful displays from the Bath product who has made the England no. 13 shirt his own. Great flair, pace, and strong defence. 

Robbie Henshaw – narrowly shades Jamie Roberts. Solid performer for Ireland. The new BoD? Time will tell.

Half Backs:

Jonny Sexton – the governor. Ford and Biggar chasing in his wake.

Conor Murray – simply the best and fastest distribution of the all the home scrum halves. Sublime handling and great vision for Irish try against England.

Props

Joe Marler – the most improved prop in the Six Nations. Outstanding in scrums and loose. Well done for a man I previously considered a journeyman. Honourable mention for the excellent Vincent Dubaty.

Dan Cole – 50 caps now and currently the best tight head in the world. 

Hooker:

Guilhem Guirado – narrowly shades it ahead of Dylan Hartley

Second Row:

Paul O’Connell – goes without saying

Luke Charteris – narrowly shades out team mate Alun Wyn-Jones.

Back Row:

Peter O’Mahony – part of a wonderful Irish Back row. Spoiling and unplayable at times

Sergio Parisse – wonderful displays against England and Scotland. Literally carried Italy home against Scotland. Simply the best!

Sam Warburton – back to his brilliant best. Man of the match against Ireland and close against Italy. Captain courageous.


Well that’s all folks. See you again for Six Nations 2016!

Six Nations 2015 Round 5 – The Chase is on!

Final round of the 2015 Six nations and we have a three-way chase to the title. Pre-tournament favourites Ireland hit a major roadblock last weekend in Cardiff and now join Wales and England on 3 wins out of 4 with points difference the likely deciding factor on where the championship silverware will end up. 

Your correspondent is having another solid year of predictions with a 75% success rate going into the final weekend –not quite at the dizzy heights of last season but with a solid last weekend an 80% success rate is within grasp!

Round 4 saw some great battles. Wales went and demonstrated that defences are critical in our modern game with a truly bone crunching defensive display against Ireland. Scotland showed some strong heart against a mistake-ridden disorganised England and France finally showed what they are made of with a comprehensive defeat of Italy in Rome. 

Will the final weekend live up to the heights of Round 4? Who will win the title? All will be revealed in my final preview of the tournament.

Italy v Wales

Awesome! That is the only way to describe Wales’ outstanding defensive display against Ireland. A new record of 250 tackles and the ability of the Welsh defence to withstand wave after wave of Irish attacking play was breathtaking and punishing at the same time. It was not the prettiest match but it was rugby at its rawest – brutal, uncompromising and gripping.

Wales are peaking at the right time.  After their lamentable second half against England, they have slowly got their tournament back on track. A solid grinding performance against Scotland followed by growing confidence and more match control against France and Ireland.  The final win over Ireland has given Wales an outside chance to still win the title and their final match is against a damaged and shell-shocked Italy. A comprehensive victory over Italy, though, would turn up the heat on their title rivals, with Ireland tackling Scotland at Murrayfield next Saturday, followed by England hosting France at Twickenham.

I have been watching Rugby for a long time but I have never seen defensive play on that scale before. Quiet honestly, it was hard to choose a man of the match. Captain Sam Warburton was a nuisance all game to Ireland – doing what opens side flankers do in slowing down and disrupting the play. Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn-Jones had huge matches. The transformation of the beanpole Charteris into a world-class second row has been very pleasing. His time in the Top 14 in France at Perpignan and Racing Metro has definitely made a man out of him and his performance in defence with 31 tackles was also matched by his massively disruptive qualities in the Irish line out. 

That victory over Ireland was not without its cost – injuries to Samson Lee and Gethin Jenkins mean Warren Gatland has had to shuffle his pack and make a small number of changes. Scarlets forward Rob Evans and Ospreys tight head Aaron Jarvis are their respective replacements, while there are call-ups on the bench for hooker Ken Owens, props Rhys Gill and Scott Andrews and scrumhalf Gareth Davies, with Mike Phillips missing out.

It will be Rob Evans' full Wales debut after he went on as a replacement for Jenkins at half-time last Saturday, with Jarvis continuing instead of Lee, who was carried off inside the opening 15 minutes against Ireland. This is worrying area for Wales against the proven Italian front row and pack. Wales do not have a huge depth of front row forwards to add to the team but Gatland has done well to strengthen his bench while continuing to give game time to his next generation of forwards.

Ken Owens returns after a length absence and lines up among the substitutes instead of Gloucester hooker Richard Hibbard, who had been following return-to-play protocols after taking a blow to his head during the Ireland game. Cardiff born Saracens forward Rhys Gill, meanwhile, gains a match-day place after only joining the squad for training on Monday, while Gareth Davies - a livewire operator and consistent try-scorer for the Scarlets - gets his chance instead of the hugely experienced Phillips. Again sensible planning by Gatland to bring Davies on in terms of game experience in the cauldron of the Six Nations prior to the World Cup.

As for Italy, they must be absolutely shell-shocked and disheartened by their poor display against France. To get shut out at home in Stadio Olimpico was extremely poor and such a disappointment after their victory in Murrayfield in Round 3.  That situation went from bad to worse this week with news that inspirational captain Sergio Parisse has been ruled out of Saturday's clash against Wales.

In a hammer-blow for the Azzurri, number eight Parisse has not recovered from a foot injury suffered during last weekend's 29-0 home loss to France.
Samuela Vunisa, who moves from open side flanker, will replace him in the back row, with veteran Mauro Bergamasco handed the number seven shirt.

Leicester hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini will take over the captaincy reins from Parisse as Italy look to thwart Wales' Six Nations title bid. Other changes made by head coach Jacques Brunel from the France clash see starts for Zebre fly-half Kelly Haimona, who has recovered from an injury that ruled him out of the France encounter, and long-serving prop Martin Castrogiovanni.

And there is also a chance in the front row for Ghiraldini's Leicester colleague Michele Rizzo, who replaces the injured Matias Aguero with highly experienced forwards Quintin Geldenhuys and Robert Barbieri, meanwhile, are on the bench.

Wales need tries and lots of them. That has been their biggest challenge this season. Rome has not been a happy hunting ground for the Welsh but fortune favours the brave and one has to feel Wales have just too much quality to drop the ball at this stage. Halfpenny has been sublime with his kicking and the Welsh three-quarters are due a big game.  

Italy’s best chance is to disrupt the Welsh scrummage and try to get their rolling maul moving. Their goal kicking has been pretty awful – so Italy must be focusing on accepting defeat and trying to keep their head held high.

Expect Wales to push hard from the start and achieve a comfortable win but will it be enough of a points difference?

Italy 7 Wales 33

Scotland v Ireland

Ireland’s defeat in Cardiff has been chastening. Their press has been very negative about the Welsh performance and that is a lack of respect. Ireland were one dimensional and unable to break through the Welsh defence. It is the number of opportunities that were squandered that dominated the post-match discussion. Sexton was definitely off the pace and the Irish forwards suffered from white line fever at critical times when cooler heads may have passed the ball wide.

Ireland suffered as the more they looked to get back into the game the more their runners became one-off and the team did not move the point of contact. Much as the Welsh were heroic, Ireland made it easier for them than anyone could have expected. The picture of Tommy Bowe and Jared Payne waving their hands in the air looking for the ball and a walk-in try summed up Ireland's plight. To be fair it may be hard to watch for the players, but it will also be comforting and the lessons learnt will actually make Ireland better.

A time to change direction or simply a bad day at the office? I think it is the latter. Joe Schmidt is an intelligent coach and he will have taken the time to ensure Ireland come to terms with their "straight-up" lesson in failing to convert pressure into tries.  Schmidt will also look at his side over-playing when they were chasing the game, but that is down to the key decision-makers taking control at the right time; also the turnover penalty on Cian Healy from Warburton gave Wales a seven-point buffer, when Ireland should have been putting the pressure back on Wales as they became tense.

Ireland will be determined to win their second championship title in a row. They go into this decisive weekend level with England and Wales on six points and know they must win in Edinburgh to have any chance of clinching glory.

Schmidt makes just two changes to his Ireland side to face Scotland. Luke Fitzgerald comes into the side at the expense of Simon Zebo on the left wing. The Munster man drops out of the match-day 23 entirely.

Zebo was poor against Wales after a strong showing against England and his loss of form comes at a bad time for him. Leinster man Fitzgerald's inclusion is his first for Ireland since the clash with New Zealand at Aviva Stadium in 2013, when he entered the fray as a centre replacement for Brian O'Driscoll after 53 minutes of action.

There have been calls for his inclusion from many sectors in Ireland following his fine displays for Leinster this season and Ireland will be hoping that he will add a creativity and unpredictability to the Ireland backline. He'll win his 28th cap on Saturday. 

Cian Healy replaces Jack McGrath at loose-head prop for his first start of the championship, with McGrath taking Healy's place on the bench as loose-head replacement. McGrath held the position for the first four rounds of the tournament, with Healy operating off the bench in Ireland's clashes with France, England and Wales. McGrath can count himself unlucky not to be running out at Murrayfield, but 27-year-old Healy looks to have proved he is restored to full match fitness

I am surprised to see Rory Best retain his place. His performance in Cardiff was nothing short of abysmal for an international hooker- line out throwing accuracy of a scud missile and anonymous in the loose. He will win his 83rd cap against Scotland and Sean Cronin must be wondering just what he has to do to gain a test start.

For Scotland, they are facing into the abyss of yet another wooden spoon. There were encouraging signs in eth first half against England but like Wales in Cardiff, they faded badly against the white machine in the second half. It was only England’s own mistakes and mismanagement that saved Scotland from yet another hammering. 

There is no question that Scotland have played with a lot of spirit this season with their ability to score tries being the one saving grace.  The Scots are desperate to end their campaign on a high in a tournament, which reads, played 4 lost 4 so far.

Coach Vern Cotter has made two changes to his side ahead of Saturday's final RBS 6 Nations clash with Ireland at Murrayfield. Back-row forward Adam Ashe is promoted from the bench to take Rob Harley's slot on the blind-side, while prop Ryan Grant also moves up from the replacements to take Alasdair Dickinson's role in the front-row.

Cotter's two alterations apart, Scotland remain a fairly settled line-up and the New Zealand-born head coach goes with the same back division which impressed for spells during last week's brave display in the 25-13 defeat to England at Twickenham.

Skipper Greig Laidlaw will partner stand-off Finn Russell in the half-back positions as they start in front of Glasgow Warriors trio Mark Bennett, Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour, and Edinburgh duo Dougie Fife and Matt Scott.
In the pack, tight-head Euan Murray makes history, alongside Ross Ford and Grant, overtaking Allan Jacobsen's record as the most capped Scotland prop with a 66th appearance.

Jonny Gray and Jim Hamilton will again start in the boiler house, with David Denton and Blair Cowan returning to the back row. The only other change is among the match-day substitutes as Tim Visser replaces Johnnie Beattie.

Ireland must start as huge favourites and they will be looking to recover quickly from their defeat in Cardiff. They will be keen to not to repeat the mistakes of 2007 when Ireland chased a points-difference boosting final try rather than punt the ball out for full-time in Italy eight years ago, only to concede what proved to be a crucial converted score.

Roland de Marigny plundered the last-gasp score for the Azzurri, with Ireland winning out 54-21: France then hammered Scotland 46-19 to swipe the title on points-difference - by just a four-point margin. 

Scotland have their last chance to salvage something and they will fight to the last to cause an upset like in 2013 when triumphed 12-8 over Ireland at Murrayfield. Expect the scots to move the ball through their backs and use Stuart Hogg as a tactical kicking weapon relying on Laidlaw’s goal kicking to keep them in touch. 

Its stick your neck out time and I have to make a big call. Much as my heart would love to see Scotland triumph, Ireland just have too much quality and one defeat does not a bad team make. Ireland win but not by a big score.

Scotland 16 Ireland 22

England v France

England has largely failed to kick on from their opening victory over Wales. An unimpressive home performance over Italy where they made it far too hard to win against a feisty Azzurri was followed by the defeat in Dublin and then last week’s error strewn victory over Scotland. 

Are England trying too hard? Have they found their level? Or are expectations just too high?

Answers on a postcard please.  England management have been putting a brave face on it but the facts are England have won 3 games, silenced the Millennium Stadium fever, and have done the job they had to do, At times England have looked very impressive at times whilst at others hurried and ill prepared. 

England are at a crossroads. As it stands – England is probably the only Northern Hemisphere team who has the ability, draw, and home advantage to win this year’s world cup. They have a stable side and can improve.  The injury crisis they faced hat the start of the tournament has not been mentioned since the first round and really shouldn’t. Stuart Lancaster has been tinkering with his side through the rounds; handling injuries and bringing players back as required. 

The reality is they have to start winning the key matches and titles. The loss in Dublin hurt them and this weekend’s showdown with Les Bleus is really a huge challenge for them. They really need to prevail and take the Six Nations title. Should they fail (again), then the self doubts will continue to nag at both the team and support and that could be the main thing that could derail their World cup challenge.

Stuart Lancaster makes one change to his starting line up. England have promoted Geoff Parling to the second row and recalled Nick Easter to the bench for Saturday's decisive RBS 6 Nations clash with France at Twickenham. Parling will replace the failing Dave Attwood, who has been massively disappointing after his solid performance against Wales.  Attwood’s form has really dropped off to the level where he has been dropped from the 23 altogether. Instead, head coach Stuart Lancaster has looked to Easter to provide lock cover among the replacements as England aim to clinch a first Championship since 2011.

Lancaster keeps faith with his team with Dan Cole winning his 50th cap at prop and the impressive Jack Nowell also retaining his wing slot. Nowell and George Ford were the stand out players against Scotland and Lancaster will also be pleased with the return to form of Billy Vunipola who had one of his best outings in an England shirt. 

As for France, at last a sign of positive progress for Les Blues. It finally looked like they knew what was their best side. France were impressive against Italy shutting them out to no score in Rome.  Philippe Saint-Andre finally seemed to get his selections right. Fickou and Mermoz were impressive in the centres – more like the old France, Scott Spedding handled and controlled well from full back and the French pack showed solid scrunmmaging, line out and mauls.  Much better all round and I was delighted to finally see some Gallic flare and spirit to wake up the tournament. 

Philippe Saint-Andre has made two to his starting line-up for Saturday's RBS 6 Nations showdown against England, with Jules Plisson and Vincent Debaty set to start. Stade Francais fly-half Plisson comes in for the injured Camille Lopez, who sustained a badly bruised knee during Sunday's 29-0 triumph over Italy, while loose head prop Eddy Ben Arous has also been ruled out for the match at Twickenham as Debaty makes a start after impressive shifts off the bench.
Plisson, who impressed as he came off the bench and scored 10 points in his 40-minute appearance against Italy, broke his nose at the Stadio Olimpico but has been passed fit to take on leaders England. Plisson has been very impressive for Stade in the top 14 this season and is virtually unrecognisable from the player that lost his place in the France team last year. 

The other change with Debaty coming into the starting line up is the recall of Uini Atonio as replacement prop amongst the replacements.

This really is a tough game to call. France have a poor record at Twickenham with it being 10 years since their last victory at HQ way back in 2005. They are however coming to this match with confidence and form. England need to win and need to win well to quell the doubters. 

England will be wary of France’s scrum but the recall of Parling and his reunion with Lawes will settle England’s platform and with secure ball, England should be able to unleash their talented backs and with quick ball they could have France in trouble. 

The critical player for England is probably George Ford. He was impressive against Scotland – probably England’s best player. He needs a solid game and needs to use his obvious talent and vision to steer England to victory.

I think England are too good to lose at home and France will give away a lot of penalties which will enable the Rose to keep the scoreboard ticking over. England win and are champions with +43 points difference.

England 19 France 13

Final Standings

	P	W	L	Pts Diff	POINTS
England	5	4	1	+43	8
Ireland	5	4	1	+39	8
Wales	5	4	1	+38	8
France	5	2	3	+16	4
Italy	5	1	4	-105	2
Scotland	5	0	5	-31	0