Rugby Raconteur is back after missing last year’s Six nations for a well earned break. After the COVID impacted championships of the past two season, what can we expect in 2022?
This year’s championship is especially interesting as the road to the World Cup 2023 approaches and teams will want to be kicking on with momentum from the Autumn games and identifying the potential stars for the future.
We should not underestimate the bonus that will come for all home teams with having full capacity crowds back in the stadiums. In Wales, we refer to the “hwyl” – the camaraderie of the spectators and players together as one. After the past two years, when the Six Nations lost so much of its colour and fun while it was being played in empty stadiums, the prospect of having it back again feels pretty good.
One thing which is almost always true is that teams who begin strongly frequently prosper. In this case, with Ireland and France both beating New Zealand in November, and Scotland and England also in promising autumn form, the opening two weekends will be particularly key. If Scotland lose to England in the opening weekend then it becomes imperative to win in Cardiff. Likewise for Wales another defeat in Dublin will put huge pressure on a shell shocked and injury ravaged squad to deliver at home. As all coaches know, the first couple of weeks are pivotal as to how the campaign will go for their teams
In 2021, the soulless expanse of empty stadiums meant that any form of home advantage was eliminated. Wales were surprise winners as France once again faltered to deceive and failed to win the title. Things look very different this season and perhaps the key factor will be the squad depth as most teams are missing many of their existing established star platers. Wales found the winning formula with their opponents conceding a succession of Red cards and but for last minute try in Paris would have won a shock Grand Slam. But it didn’t look that way after a dreadful first 40 minutes in Paris. The tournament continued its trend of attacking rugby with 86 tries scored.
As things presently stand, with France’s Covid issues seemingly fading, “Les Bleus” look like the nailed on favourites with England having to reshuffle their deck and Ireland quietly going about their business. Can Wales avoid a PIVACAUST? Will Townsend’s Scottish Braveheart’s falter or can they finally make that long-awaited push for the title? Lets see how I believe it will play out:
FRANCE
Can France finally “nail” a Six Nations grand slam? They haven’t won a grand slam since 2010 but there’s a fair chance that could change this winter.
Looking to win some silverware after coming very close over the past two seasons, the French are the clear favourites for the 2022 Six Nations title. Fresh off their first win over New Zealand in Paris since 1973, beating the All Blacks in commanding fashion, Les Bleus have been in constant improvement of their youthful squad under Fabien Galthié and their most reliable coaching staff since the Laporte era.
Led by World Rugby Player of the Year Antoine Dupont, and also relying on incredibly talented players such as Romain Ntamack and Gael Fickou, France seem ready to establish themselves as the top side in the Northern Hemisphere.
It’s still a relatively young squad as well so this year’s Six Nations could prove a “coming of age” of sorts for Fabien Galthié and his team.
Fabien Galthié has named seven uncapped players in his 2022 Six Nations squad but there are plenty of familiar faces involved too.
Prop Daniel Bibi Biziwu, locks Florian Verhaeghe and Florent Vanverberghe, flanker Yoan Tanga, fly-half Leo Berdeu and centres Jules Favre and Tani Vili could all win their first Test caps.
Antoine Dupont has been named in the side despite his recent injury. He is set to return for club Toulouse on Saturday and if cleared fit, he is likely to take on the France captaincy duties as Charles Ollivon is still out injured.
Teddy Thomas and Virimi Vakatawa are back in the side while Matthieu Jalibert has been left out due to injury.
La Rochelle’s Jules Favre is an exciting addition – testament to coaching regime of Ronan O’Gara; whilst Montpellier’s Anthony Bouthier, originally recalled among the 42 players finally had to withdraw after being injured against Exeter, Sunday, in the European Cup. He is replaced by Toulouse's Louis Carbonel.
They will have home advantage in their opening two matches against Italy, who they will be expected to dispatch comfortably, and Ireland who will turn up to make them earn every metre. A narrow win against the Irish and then things get even trickier with a trip to Scotland, who beat them in Paris last year, before a monumental clash with reigning champions Wales in Cardiff.
By then Scotland’s challenge could be all but spent and Wales will also be out of contention. Back to back wins on the road before all roads lead back to Paris for the very last fixture of the 2022 Championship, Le Crunch against England. Many are predicting that match to be the title decider and it is expected to add another brutal chapter to the historic rivalry between France and England.
France will see off England – Champions with a Grand Slam!
Prediction: 1st Champions & Grand Slam
IRELAND
In some ways, though, nobody is approaching the annual championship more eagerly than the revved-up green machine of Ireland. Having beaten New Zealand, expectations are suitably high and the recent strong displays of the Irish provinces in the URC and European Champions Cup have further bolstered that optimism.
Leinster, Ulster, Munster and Connacht are all in the last 16 of the Champions Cup, with the first three unbeaten on the pitch in the competition this season. Leinster have scored 23 tries in their last two games.
Ireland were disappointing in the 2021 Championship . The year didn’t start all that well, as Ireland lost their opening two matches in the Six Nations, - to both Wales (away) and France (home) and just squeaked home against Scotland for a disappointing mid table finish while all of the provinces arguably underperformed in the Heineken Champions Cup. This season, the fortunes of Irish rugby have changed for the better and they will be eager to make amends this time.
The Men in Green have not lost a match since France in Round 2 of the 2021 Championship and they have since beaten the likes of Scotland, England and New Zealand. The Autumn was a totally different manner with an impressive 29-20 victory over New Zealand – the final score line flattering the All Blacks who were outplayed and out thought for the entire encounter. They followed that up with a. seven try demolition of Argentina.
Those performances have drastically changed the complexion of the national team however, as they implemented a fast paced, exciting brand of rugby to near perfection. Irish eyes are definitely smiling and their supporters confident of kicking on with another Six Nations title.
Andy Farrell and the Ireland coaching group have named a 37 player squad ahead of the 2022 Guinness Six Nations Championships. The squad will be captained by Johnny Sexton who earned his 100th cap for his country against Japan during the November international window.
Farrell has included Connacht's Mack Hansen and Ulster's Mike Lowry in his 37-man squad for the opening rounds of the Six Nations.
The pair are the only uncapped players in the group, while Leinster wing James Lowe misses out due to a muscle injury which will side-line him for a number of weeks.
Uncapped Hansen and Lowry have both trained with Ireland in the past year with Lowry having been involved with the group in the summer of 2021, and Hansen spending a week in camp last November.
The recall of Andrew Conway, as one of the form players in Irish rugby at the moment is an interesting addition but he faces competition for a starting shirt from the likes of Robert Baloucoune, the evergreen Keith Earls and Jordan Larmour, while the uncapped Michael Lowry from Ulster and Mack Hansen from Connacht are also in the squad and eager to make an impression on Farrell.
There is also a recall for second row Kieran Treadwell, who won the last of his three Irish caps in 2017. The Ulster lock replaces Ultan Dillane, who is left out of the squad following confirmation of his move abroad at the end of the season.
Jack Carty joins Johnny Sexton and Joey Carbery among the out-halves, with the Connacht 10 looking to earn his first cap since the 2019 World Cup.
You might think it is easy to pick 37 but a name jumping straight out at me is Ciaran Frawley, who didn’t make the squad. For me, he is probably the nearest thing to an Aaron Mauger we have in Northern hemisphere rugby.
The pack is formidable, lead in the front row by Leinster tight head Tadgh Furlong who has scary agility in the loose for a man of his size, and the backs are equally fearsome with Jonny Sexton still providing the spark from fly-half.
There are very little weaknesses to capitalise on in the Ireland squad and that is a big part of what makes them so difficult to break down.
Ireland will head into the Six Nations with plenty of confidence as a result, although they certainly aren’t the only team with realistic hopes of getting their hands on silverware in March.
France and England both looked very good in November, and Ireland will unfortunately play both of them away from home in what is regarded as the tougher year for the men in green in the Six Nations’ two year cycle.
Ireland open their campaign with a home fixture against Wales in Dublin. The hapless Welsh have no chance and I expect Ireland to dominate the forward battle and score 6-7 tries over a makeshift Welsh defence. Expect a 40 point margin and Irish momentum carried forward to round two.
They move on to play France away in Paris. This is the critical game of the whole championship. I see a tight game and France narrowly winning by 2-3 points.
Week three will see an easy win over Italy in Dublin followed by a trip to Twickenham to face England. I believe that HQ will hold no fear for the Irish and I predict a fairly comfortable won over England leading up to the final encounter against Scotland in Dublin. Another bonus point win will see Ireland home. Bridesmaids.
Prediction: 2nd
ENGLAND
Make no mistake about it, England were well and truly humbled in last year’s Six Nations. They lost to Scotland at Twickenham for the first time since 1983, were dominated by Wales in Cardiff and went down 32-18 to Ireland in Dublin.
Other than the obligatory win over Italy, the only bright point was their narrow 23-20 win over France which came courtesy of a late Maro Itoje try and Owen Farrell conversion.
So what has changed for Eddie Jones’ side one year on? The answer is that they’ve brought in a fresh crop of exciting new talents to the international fold.
The established stars like Itoje and Farrell have been joined by up and comers like Marcus Smith and Freddie Steward.
The Autumn Internationals saw them beat Australia before gaining a measure of revenge over South Africa for the 2019 Rugby World Cup final loss.
Beating the world champions is impressive but the margin of victory, which was just a single point with a 27-26 score line, was narrow and England conceded a shockingly high number of penalties.
However, there was more than enough cause for optimism on the back of those results and the current blend of youth and experience that Jones has established should prove to be serious title contenders this year.
England head coach Eddie Jones has announced a 36-man training squad that includes six uncapped players ahead of this year’s Six Nations.
The uncapped Orlando Bailey, Alfie Barbeary, Ollie Chessum, Tommy Freeman, Ollie Hassell-Collins and Luke Northmore continue Jones’ overhaul of his squad.
Captain Owen Farrell has been ruled out for the competition with George Ford recalled after his outstanding form at the heart of Leicester’s revival with Marcus Smith and uncapped Bath prospect Bailey also included as fly-halves.
There is no place for versatile back Elliot Daly despite his recovery from the stress fracture that forced him to sit out a successful autumn, and his Saracens colleagues Mako and Billy Vunipola also remain in international exile.
A fifth ever-present from the 2019 World Cup squad, and up until now a key member of Jones’ back-row, has been frozen out in flanker Sam Underhill.
Ford and Smith looks like favourites to form the 10-12 axis although who starts in centre is open to debate.
Exeter wing Jack Nowell makes his first appearance in an England squad since the World Cup, having recovered from a succession of injuries.
Of the newcomers, Barbeary is the most likely to be involved in the Six Nations as the 21-year-old back-row, who can also play hooker, continues to impress for Wasps.
Talismanic wing Jonny May is set to miss at least the first two rounds of the Six Nations, with a visit to a specialist determining the length of his absence. The Gloucester finisher has been struggling with an ongoing knee problem and missed the club’s recent win over Perpignan at Kingsholm in the Challenge Cup.
Courtney Lawes is expected to Captain the side but has had injury problems of his own and is just returning after concussion protocols. Joe Marler added to England’s woes by pulling out of the squad with COVID.
The superlatives keep flowing for Marcus Smith and his adaption to England could be the difference to winning and losing. Henry Slade is expected to be first choice at 13 and England will continue to cause opposition concerns with their usual pack strength.
England open their campaign with the Calcutta Cup match away at Murrayfield. Scotland will fancy their chances and I believe England will concede too many penalties to beat the auld enemy.
They then travel to Rome for an easy bonus point win before facing Wales at Twickenham. Wales have a tendency to be narrow losers at HQ and that could then be the case this time – although I feel England will be too strong for a weakened Welsh side and will win by 7 points +.
Rounds four and five are much tougher and they will have a titanic battle against Ireland – losing narrowly before finishing in Paris with another defeat.
Two wins only.
Prediction: 3rd
WALES
Write Wales off at your peril, the reigning champions have never paid any attention to other teams and pre-tournament favourites.
They had a rocky Autumn International campaign last year where they lost to South Africa but did manage a somewhat unconvincing win over Australia. The 54-16 hammering at the hands of the All Blacks means little with the Welsh not able to field their full strength XV.
Wayne Pivac continues to be a marmite figure. The WRU’s lack of leadership of the professional game has left the regional teams look weak and uncompetitive and its hard to optimistic as a Welsh supporter in 2022.
If they can get it right in the pack and dominate the set pieces then the rest will follow, the Welsh backs can be as skilful and deadly at finishing as ever so opposition teams will need to shut them down early.
Dan Biggar will captain defending champions Wales for the first time at the 2022 Guinness Six Nations after Wayne Pivac named the fly-half as skipper in his 36-man squad for the Championship.
There are three uncapped players in the squad as Ospreys hooker Dewi Lake is included alongside his clubmate Jac Morgan and another back-rower in Cardiff Rugby’s James Ratti.
Ratti is officially what you call a bolter. The 24 year old gets the call at lock after also impressing this season with his 6ft 4in and 18 stone frame. He was released by the Scarlets but has re-galvanised his career a few miles up the road at the Arms Park, where Cardiff boss Young has moved him from lock to No.8. With Faletau out, Pivac has a shortage of candidates at the base of the scrum and Ratti suddenly comes into the mix.
Among the big name absentees from Pivac's squad are Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Faletau, who aren't regarded as fit enough to start the tournament. They may be brought in as the Six Nations progresses, with the clash against England at Twickenham on February 26 a likely target.
Ken Owens and George North are other major veterans missing from the party, but Ross Moriarty, who has also been on the injured list, does return.
There is also a Wales recall for Ospreys centre Owen Watkin, who was dropped from the autumn squad.
Pivac has had to deal with a number of other injuries in the back row, as Dan Lydiate, Josh Macleod and Josh Navidi are all also unavailable but such is the depth that Wales possess, they can still call on the likes of Taine Basham, Ellis Jenkins, Ross Moriarty and Aaron Wainwright in addition to newcomers Morgan and Ratti.
Bradley Roberts and Christ Tshiunza could both play in their first Guinness Six Nations contests, having made their international debuts in the 2021 Autumn Nations Series, while Biggar would claim his 100th Wales cap if he features in all five matches and Jonathan Davies could reach the milestone of 100 Test appearances when including his caps for the Lions.
The Welsh front five without Alun Wyn-Jones have struggled in the set piece and teams that don’t win decent scrum and line out rarely compete at the highest level.
I am completely bemused by the omissions of Shane Lewis-Hughes, Owen Lane, Jarrod Evans and Scott Williams; Ioan Lloyd can also count himself unlucky.
Hopefully Dewi Lake is going for throwing coaching as he's clearly not ready for international rugby yet and none of the options at hooker are vaguely convincing.
Rhys Carre and Ratti can count themselves lucky to be there and Wales’ pool of centres look weak and very one-paced so one could see the logic in Pivac wanting to have a look at Josh Adams him there. It’s a shame he had to drop out of that Fiji game.
The trouble is Wales don’t have anyone of the necessary quality to take his wing spot if he’s going to move infield. Owen Lane’s omission from the squad looks strange and a poor decision.
The perception of whether Pivac has met the minimum requirement of respectability depends on the outcome of the Scotland game.
Wales have the opportunity to continue to transform their game plan under the new coaching regime and despite the continued woeful regional rugby performances, Wales have optimism to defend their title.
Wales have all the blue teams at home and their traditional biggest threats England and Ireland away. They begin their title defence with a tricky test away at the Aviva Stadium against Andy Farrell’s Ireland who went unbeaten through their Autumn Nations Series campaign.
Wales have not won in Dublin since the Grand Slam year of 2012 and it's hard to see any way they will change that. I really fear the Welsh front five will be blown away and I am dreading a massive humiliating defeat.
The following week Wales return to Cardiff where they will host Scotland at the Principality Stadium. Gregor Townsend’s side won 14-10 in the rearranged game at Parc y Scarlets in 2020 but Wales will be looking to avenge that defeat and after last year’s encounter at BT Murrayfield saw the sides separated by just a point, fans can expect another blockbuster. Wales by one score.
After their opening two games, Wales can take stock in the first fallow week as they prepare for a trip to Twickenham to face England. Wales have not won away in England in the Guinness Six Nations since Scott Williams’ decisive try saw them come away with a 19-12 victory in 2012.
Again, it’s hard to see Wales changing that pattern of defeats and a loss to England will be followed up with a Friday night encounter against France. Revenge will be firmly on the agenda as Les Bleus arrive in the Welsh capital for a rematch of that dramatic encounter at the Stade de France 12 months ago.
Wales looked to have secured the Grand Slam when they were ahead with the clock in the red, but France held their nerve and Brice Dulin’s score in the corner earned them a spectacular 32-30 win.
If Wales needed any added incentive then the fact they lost at home to France for the first time in a decade the last time Fabien Galthié’s men came to town – going down 27-23 in 2020 – should provide plenty of motivation as they seek to set the record straight on March 11. France to win by two scores
Wales wrap up their campaign at home to Italy in the opening game of Super Saturday, safe in the knowledge the Azzurri have never won in Cardiff – their best effort an 18-18 draw back in 2006.
Two wins and 4th place.
Prediction: 4th
SCOTLAND
Scotland start 2022 with a search for more consistency over the five matches. They have shown at times, that there is no single team that they are incapable of beating.
Last year, they did the hard part and won away against England and France demonstrating that point; but still ended up finishing fourth after they were pipped by Ireland and Wales at home.
A solid Autumn with victories against Australia and Japan and decent form shown by Glasgow and Edinburgh in the URC and Champions Cup will give Scotland belief they can kick on in this year’s tournament.
Every year seems to be the same story for Scotland, entering the Six Nations with optimism of challenging for the title that ultimately falls by the wayside in the opening weeks.
With 18 Tests played since the 2019 World Cup and, most likely, 19 or 20 still to play before the 2023 tournament kicks off, Scotland will reach the mid-point of their RWC cycle during this year’s Six Nations. Gregor Townsend is balancing the competing priorities of putting out a side to compete right now but also developing a group that can travel with confidence to France in a little over 18 months’ time.
Once again though, as is the case every year, there is cause for optimism in the dark blue camp. Scottish coach Gregor Townsend announced a list of 39 players who will prepare for the next Six Nations Tournament.
There are 11 players in and 14 out from the initial selection for the Autumn Nations’ Series. Those brought in are a mix of prospects (including 4 uncapped players) and senior squad members returning after missing some or all of the matches in November.
To tell the truth, coach Gregor Townsend showed no real surprises with his selections. He brought back into his group all the players who, over the past two or three years, have allowed the Braveheart’s to once again become a team that counts on the international scene.
From full-back Stuart Hogg to flanker Hamish Watson, via second row Jonny Gray, all the "stars" of the team will be there as soon as the competition opens against the English. Racing 92 star Finn Russell is the key player on whom Scotland depend so highly.
The current Scotland squad is packed full of quality players but it’s the backs where they really shine. Ali Price is emerging as one of the top scrum-halves in world rugby while Duhan van der Merwe has that special combination of pace and power but the real threats come from captain Stuart Hogg at fullback and maverick fly-half Finn Russell pulling the strings.
Otherwise – its 13 players from Edinburgh, 11 from Glasgow. 22 forwards and 17 backs. Finally, it should be noted that Townsend has opened its group to five new players: back row forwards Andie Christie and Rory Darge, winger Kyle Rowe and scrum-half Ben White and Ben Vellacott.
Omissions include Adam Hastings, Huw Jones, Fraser Brown and Sean Maitland.
But it will be a welcome return for centre Cameron Redpath, who is named after an injury kept him out of action for months. In addition, Rory Hutchinson is back in the side after not playing for Scotland in 2021.
They will welcome France and England to Murrayfield this year and will fancy their chances, as they do against anyone in Edinburgh, but the real tests will come against Ireland and Wales as it’s the away games that usually prove the most difficult for Gregor Townsend’s side.
Scotland will need to be at the peak of their form and its fortuitous that England are the opening visitors to Murrayfield. I think Scottish teamwork and togetherness will see them home in a narrow win over England but they will face the wounded dragon at Cardiff in round two. They will run Wales close, they always seem to at Cardiff but at the end of the day I don’t see Scotland beating Wales, Ireland, or France with only Italy being the chance of another victory.
Prediction: 5th
ITALY
New Zealander Kieran Crowley is the latest lamb to the slaughter at perennial cellar-dwellers Italy. The former Canada coach has a good pedigree but so Franco Smith and Conor O’Shea neither of whom found the winning formula.
The World Cup-winning All Black is at least familiar with his player as he had been with Benetton since 2016. He has plenty of international coaching experience, having served as a selector for the All Blacks from 2002 to 2003 as well as coaching New Zealand Under-19s to World Championship success in Ireland in 2007.
The following year he took over as coach of the Canadian national team, leading them to the Churchill Cup final on two occasions.
After eight years in charge of Canada, he moved to Italy to become the head coach of Benetton, whom he led to an historic first play-off appearance in the Guinness PRO14 in 2019, narrowly missing out on victory at Thomond Park against Munster.
He takes over from Smith, who will move into a new role as the head of high performance in Italy, overseeing rugby at every level.
As well as serving as the head coach, Crowley will also take charge of Italy’s attack in the new coaching set-up. He is joined by Andrea Moretti, from Zebre, who will be the forwards coach, while defence coach Marius Goosen, Corrado Pilat and Giovanni Sanguin will also work alongside Crowley.
It’s incredible to think that Italy haven’t won a Six Nations match since they beat Scotland 22-19 at Murrayfield back in 2015. Unlike the other five teams in the competition, the goal of the Italians isn't to win the trophy... it’s to just win a game, any game.
The longer that monkey remains on their back the louder the cries for a system that could see them drop out of the competition become.
It’s hard to see where that victory comes from this year, they’ll probably see the home match with Scotland as their best opportunity but even that will require an off day from the Scots.
However, club rugby in Italy is in the strongest place it has ever been and the national squad does feature more than a handful of skilled players.
No nation will want to be the team that Italy finally ends their poor run against but many neutrals will be hoping, for the integrity of the competition more than anything, that the Azzuri can put in a performance strong enough to get over the line just once.
Kieran Crowley has named a 33-strong Italy squad for his first Guinness Six Nations in charge of the Azzurri, a selection that includes six uncapped players. Having been in charge for five seasons at Benetton, it is no surprise that the Kiwi has leaned heavily on that franchise as his old club provides 23 players.
Of the other ten, six hail from Zebre, the other Italian franchise, with just four players included who currently ply their trade with clubs outside the country – Top 14 trio Pietro Ceccarelli (Brive), Paolo Garbisi (Montpellier) and Federico Mori (Bordeaux), and Stephen Varney from Gloucester in the Gallagher Premiership.
Looking at the newcomers, an intriguing pick is Crowley’s fellow countryman Toa Halafihi. The 28-year-old New Zealander back row came through the ranks at Taranaki before a one-season stay was followed by a switch to Benetton where he has gone on to qualify for Italy under the residency rules and has impressed this season with his defence.
Paolo Garbisi, the Azzurri fly-half will be one of the key figures in the upcoming Guinness Six Nations and arrives full of confidence having established himself as first choice at Montpellier in the Top 14 following a move last summer.
In doing so, the 21-year-old has moved ahead of South African World Cup winner Handre Pollard in the pecking order
Italy head coach Kieran Crowley has spoken to the press saying has had direct contact with Harlequins wing Louis Lynagh and Saracens fly-half Alex Lozowski about their availability for the Azzurri. The New Zealander also confirmed there had been contact with Wasps wing Paolo Odogwu, whose father is of Italian descent, on the same subject.
Uncapped Lynagh, son of rugby great Michael Lynagh, qualifies for Italy via his mother. He is also eligible for Australia and England. Lozowski, who has an Italian grandmother, could take advantage of new World Rugby rules surrounding eligibility.
He won the last of his five England caps in November 2018 and could now switch countries as he has completed the required stand-down period from international rugby of three years.
Given six consecutive whitewashes – any win will do for Italy. Its hard to see any real breakthroughs and another whitewash and wooden spoon looks to be heading back to Rome.
Prediction: 6th (Wooden Spoon)
