Rod's World Cup Preview

Just one week to go until Rugby’s greatest event starts in earnest. The World Cup has become such a special part of the rugby program and the 2011 tournament will ask and answer a lot of questions. Can New Zealand finally lose their “All Chokes” tag by winning their first World Cup Since 1987? Will England rise to the challenge again? What about Australia - does their Tri-Nations win set them into a prime position? Let’s take some time to review the Groups and the likely result from the Tournament.

POOL A – New Zealand, France, Tonga, Canada and Japan

New Zealand are clearly the team to beat in Group A. Their recent defeats to South Africa and Australia apart, they have been the team to beat for the past 3 seasons. They will be under the pressure of a nation’s huge expectations but should have little problem in winning Group A. Dan Carter and Richie McCaw remain probably the World’s best players in their positions and the All Blacks look strong everywhere. Expect a comfortable win over France and hammerings for Tonga and Japan. France are the only team that likely to cause an upset for New Zealand but which France will turn up? They looked competent in beating Ireland in the build up games and have a good record in New Zealand. I expect a close game with New Zealand for 60 minutes but a defeat by 10 points at the end. I believe Japan will give France a fright but the Gallic flair should be enough to see them through. Japan suffers from being a Northern Hemisphere side that no one really plays frequently. They have building up a good squad and their recent Pacific Cup victory shows they are no mugs. Expect them to win a lot of friends with fast open play and their World Cup final will be a win over Tonga. Tonga will cause pain everywhere and will beat Canada with ease. They are likely to prop up the group but have the ability to hurt teams and both NZ and France will want to avoid injuries here. I can’t see them beating either of the top two and they will have a good game with Japan but lose. Canada have no chance and will be the group whipping boys. Expect very heavy defeats to New Zealand and France and they will prop up the group with nil points. Likely finish NZ, France, Japan, Tonga, Canada

POOL B – England, Argentina, Scotland, Georgia and Romania

England will be far too strong here and will have little problems in winning their group. England are a confidence team and this easy group will help them to greater things in this tournament. A curate’s egg of a build up with good and bad performances against Wales and a good win in Dublin. They lack flair in the threequarters and Wilkinson and Flood have no real pace but metronomic kicking precision. Manu Tuigali has a lot to prove but his power should give England an extra edge with excellent cover in the back three with Armitage and Foden fighting for full back and Chris Ashton and Mark Cueto firmed ensconced on wings. Up front England will match anyone but their pedestrian back row was shown up against Wales and that weakness will hurt them as tournament progresses. Scotland will give them a tussle up front but England will win comfortably at the end. Expect a cricket score against Romania and an easy win against the Argies but don’t mention the Belgrano. Scotland had an awful six nations and a weak build up but will t least have some confidence seeing off both Ireland and Italy. They should be good enough to see off Argentina and Romania to cling a qtr. final slot. Joe Ansbro is one of the more exciting new threequarters in the British game and Scotland’s pack are no mugs. Richie Gray was outstanding this past season and Scotland has enough power to seem them through. Argentina has an ageing team, which is still suffering (like Japan) from a lack of international challenges. They offered little against Wales and their pack is reaching Dad’s Army status. No repeat of 2007 then with an early trip home for the blue and whites. Georgia could cause some problems with their giant pack, most of who ply their trade in France. In 2007, they were minutes away from humbling Ireland and they will cause some rapid heart rates in Edinburgh and Buenos Aires for sure. They equivalent to world cup final will come with the match up with Romania for the wooden spoon. Romania are finally on their way back to their cold war strength and have shown some progress in just reaching the Tournament. Wooden spoon fro the Bucharest bullies. Likely finish – England, Scotland, Argentina, Georgia, Romania

POOL C – Australia, Ireland, Italy, Russia and USA

Australia had a surprise win in the Tri-nations, which has done a lot to erase the memory of a shocking performance losing to Samoa. In Quade Cooper - they have the world’s best fly half and their scrummage has improved immeasurably since their defeat last season to England. Rocky Elsom will lead the pack and the shock of dropping Matt Giteau will be long forgotten as the convicts reach their stride. No slip-ups expected with easy wins over Ireland and Italy and cricket scores against USA and Russia. Ireland by contrast cannot have any confidence. A terrible build up with 4 straight defeats will not help and Ireland look devoid of confidence. They had a shocker four years ago, and it’s hard to be optimistic about their chances this time. O’Driscoll looks slow and unfit, they look weak at full back and lack pace in the forwards, Moreover they lack confidence and a plan B. They will make the qtr. finals by seeing off Italy but that will be it for the Irish. Italy have had a great six nations but looked off the pace against Scotland. They will have confidence against Ireland after almost winning in the six nations. However, it’s a long way from a sunny Stadio Flaminio with a roaring home crowd to potentially the wet and cold in New Zealand. Parisse will be their main playmaker and do not expect much play outside the forwards. Wins against USA and Russia and third place. Russia and USA will play out the cold war final. The Russian team making their World Cup debut is an unknown quantity. USA has pedigree from Churchill Cup and should see off the red machine. Likely finish – Australia, Ireland, Italy, USA, Russia

POOL D – Wales, South Africa, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia

Every major sports tournament has its “group of death” and this is the one in this World cup. Wales face a tough challenge. They have beaten South Africa once in multiple attempts and looked terribly off the pace last autumn against a South African 2nd team. Wales had a rebuild in the six nations and they have gambled by adding young talent. It took some balls to leave out Martyn Williams but new Captain Sam Warburton looks the shirt and is emerging as a world class talent in a very strong Welsh back row. Wales had two tough tussles against England and showed great defensive guile and fitness. clearly out lasting England in both games. Wales are notorious slow starters and they cannot afford any slip-ups this time. South Africa will punish them of they give them anything like the amount of chance they gave England in Cardiff. Fiji and Samoa have both previously destroyed Welsh hopes and there will be much bottom clenching in both games by the Welsh supporters. Gatland has prepared his team well and I feel they will be the surprise team of the tournament. I feel Wales will turn over South Africa and scrape home against Fiji with easier passage against Samoa and a big win for the 2nd team against Namibia. Wales to top the pool. South Africa have shown no form and have called back a number of veterans to see them through this World Cup. A very poor tri nations with just a solitary win against New Zealand’s reserves won’t help and they lack pace with a badly ageing team. Morne Steyn is critical for the Boks but I feel they fall to the Welsh and finish in 2nd place. Fiji are not the force of previous years and their recent defeat to Japan was a shock. They will finish third with a win over Samoa and over Namibia. Expect the usual brutal defence and fabulous back play but third place. Samoa are definitely not the team of the past and the constant stripping of talent by New Zealand is taking its toll. A poor Pacific cup will give no real confidence and other than brutal tackling they will offer nothing to this tournament. Likely finish – Wales, South Africa, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia

Quarter Finals

Australia v South Africa – Australia have far too much power and flair to lose. Convicts to progress

England v France – England have a great record and will see off another Gallic challenge

Wales v Ireland – The Irish have a fantastic record against Wales but when the welsh believe in themselves they have real momentum. Close but Wales will win by at least 10 points.

New Zealand v Scotland – only one winner – All Blacks to proceed.

Semi Finals

Australia v England – England have an outstanding record against Australia especially in World Cups. However, this Aussie team has real flair in its back line and a good back row. Goal kicks will be critical but Australia will have just too much power this time.

New Zealand v Wales – the Welsh will have done outstandingly well to reach the semi. They haven’t beaten New Zealand since 1953 and that isn’t going to change this time although Wales will be close until last 20 minutes. All blacks win by 10 points and onto Final

Final

Australia vs New Zealand. A titanic finale then with an all-antipodean final. New Zealand will be under huge pressure and will fumble and allow Australia an early lead. The Aussies will turn the crew but All Black power will be too much and the New Zealand will triumph but only just. 3-4 point gap.

Six Nations 2011 - Final Thoughts

An exciting last weekend

Once again proving this is the greatest rugby competition in the world. In a world cup year, all of the Northern Hemisphere's premier nations have had a chance to have at least a modicum of success but who can build from here and who needs to think again? Lets review the teams and their ending positions:

England
Champions but no Grand Slam. A very disappointing ending for England who went out with a whimper rather than a bang. Poor against Scotland, they were blown away by a resurgent Ireland in Dublin. What was worrying was the complete lack of a plan B. Martin Johnson may be a great motivator but his strict adherence to a fixed plan and his natural dislike of unstructured play makes him very easy to eventually suss out. England looked very laboured in Dublin. Youngs and Flood, who had been so fresh and exciting earlier in the tournament looked lost when things didn't go England's way. Still lets no take anything away - England finished 4-1 in the tournament and will get stronger. The return of Lawes, Croft, Sheridan, Moody will all enhance England and their bench is the strongest of all except France. A shame they have no centres. Hape is not the answer and with Tindall and Flutey injured there is a massive hole here. England will revert to their forward dominated game and should make the World Cup semis and a match against Australia. Difficult to bet against England not making the World Cup Final again.

France

What can you say? Livremont put the boot in firmly with his squad and and his team responded, delivered, dominating and destroying Wales. But they still look disjointed and clearly have no idea of their best side. They will surprise a few people at the World Cup and could cause hosts New Zealand a few hand in mouth moments but where is the progress? This is a team which won a categoric Grand Slam last year and have wasted a year. Quarter Finals looks likely but then they will face England and unless France improve greatly in 5 short months their world cup will end there.

Ireland

The real jeckell and hyde team. Narrowly escaped humiliation by Italy, struggled against Scotland and would have lost with a more consistent referee; beaten by Wales and France; they raised their game to humiliate England. Sexton looks the shirt and was outstanding against England. Ireland's pack looked substandard all tournament until that final match. It is difficult to assess if this was a one off or a real resurgence by the Irish. Bowe and Reddan looked sharp. O'Connell is back and Sean O'Brien is one of players of the tournament. Ireland have a tough World Cup Pool with Australia and Italy. Assuming they scrape through as 2nd place team, they will face South Africa in the quarter finals. Ireland still too reliant on older players and a lengthy re-build likely post World Cup.

Wales

I predicted a wooden spoon for Wales and they came through with some solid results after a dismal Six Nations 2010 and Autumn humiliation. Unlucky to get England up firts, Wales played very well to beat Scotland, scraped home against Italy and had a lucky win against Ireland before being destroyed in Paris. Mike Philips still not the right choice for me and Wales will welcome back Richie Rees at scrum half. Similar in front row where Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins will be back for World Cup. Bradley Davies and Alun Wynn-Jones continue to make progress in 2nd row, Lydiate and Warburton add quality in back row. The key player for Wales is Hook. He needs to stay at No. 10. Wales will be worrying about the lack of form shown by Roberts but encouraged by Jonathan Davies. Wingers another safe area with an embarrassment of riches. Wales have the toughest World Cup Pool with long term nemesis South Africa and traditional banana skin teams such as Fiji and Samoa. Wales should just scrape through and will face Australia. That could go either way which would set up a Semi Final with England. Quarter final defeat to the convicts looks the likely outcome but some encouraging signs for Wales.

Scotland

Robinson was my coach of tournament last year and I had backed Scotland to do well. Well shows you what I know as Scotland were laboured and never recovered really from being humiliated at Murrayfield by Wales. Ansbro looks a good prospect at Centre, Jackson the future at Fly half. Scottish back row looks strong and Richie Gray has emerged as a real prospect. Scotland will face the "auld enemy" in Pool B and will have to overcome Argentina to progress. Quarter Final against New Zealand and its all over.

Italy

Finally Italy showed some great form Could have been three wins. Ireland and Wales can feel very lucky to avoid defeat and France will forever be re-living the nightmare in Rome. Parisse was player of the tournament and several Italian players showed great form. They will have a tough World Cup and I don't see them making the quarter final but great progress and Nick Mallet can be rightly proud of the progress made by his team.

Hypothetical Lions Squad:
No British Lions Tour this summer due to World Cup but like last year - a quick look at the home nations form team:

15 Foden - gets the nod with several good performances. Earls close second.
14 Ashton - Still learning but no one doubts the talent
13 Ansbro - Surprise to many but I have been very impressed by this new Scottish flyer.
12 O'Driscoll - Still supreme. Class of his own.
11 Bowe - Looked great when he has played.
10 Sexton - Outstanding against England. gets the vote over Flood.
9 Reddan - No stand out player here. Embarrassing really.
1 Corbisiero - looked good. Edges out Paul James,
2 Hartley - Poor against Ireland but great elsewhere. Gets the hooking role
3 Ross - Cole went backwards and so doesn't get it. Mike Ross - Mr. Consistent.
4 Gray - A real emerging talent.
5 Palmer - A good series for Tom.
6 O'Brien - very impressive in every game.
8 Heaslip - A close call with Ryan Jones for me.
7 Warburton - forward of the tournament for me

1 Welshmen, 5 Englishmen, 7 Irishmen, 2 Scotsmen

Final Weekend

The Six Nations draws to a climax this weekend with the final round of matches. If you are English or Italian then you will be looking forward to a final weekend of triumph. If you're not - then you will be contemplating what could have been. Few could have predicted the outstanding win for Italy against France. Bergomasco's sphincter must have been popping as he hit that final kick. But fair play - a truly memorable victory. Almost nothing better than seeing Les Bleus humbled although I feel Wales may have the backlash this weekend. England and Scotland produced a dire battle of wills and Wales triumphed with a some what" dodgy" refereeing decision. Let take a look at the likely outcomes this weekend:

Scotland v Italy

Last chance saloon for Scotland to avoid yet another wooden spoon. What a disappointing season but at least the Bravehearts showed some bottle in facing up a nervous England at HQ. Richie Gray has been Scotland's man of the tournament for me and he needs another huge performance against Italy. The Scottish back row finally started to gel together and the backs showed some penetration. Italy will be on a high still and the outstanding Parisse will again be a handful for Scotland. The Scots do owe their long suffering fans a win and I feel the Italians are already dreaming of the beach. Scotland triumph at last.

Scotland 23 Italy 16

France v Wales

It is disappointing that Shane Williams swansong was in Cardiff and the Six Nations will no longer be graced with his dancing feet. The defeat in Rome will have seriously damaged French confidence and Livremont has wielded the axe on several of his team including the oh-so-disappointing Chabal. France will bounce back and will be looking for a fine finale against the dragons. Medard is always a treat. Parra brings quicker ball and the changes in backs should fix the handling errors which cost them so much in Rome. Despite ballgate, Wales always looked like they would conquer the Irish and they will give a strong account of themselves here. They will welcome back the rock in the front row that is Adam Jones and I see the Welsh scrummage standing up well to the French. Sam Warburton is rapidly becoming a worldclass talent at Flanker and Hook is settling into his natural role at fly half. George North will add bulk and power on the wing and I expect Wales to give the French a real tough outing. Enough to win in Paris? Its been a while but I have a sneaking feeling the Dragon will roar and they will win a tight match.

France 23 Wales 25

Ireland v England

I left the best game until last. England were stuttering and nervous in a awful game last week against the Scots. Expect England top bounce back strongly and fight all the way in Dublin. Banahan is a better option than Tindall and I am pleased to see him get the start. Young and Flood were poor against Scotland, not helped by a poor England back row. Croft is on the bench and expect him on with Danny Care, Thommo and Jonny also being critical replacements for England who have a strong bench. Ireland are rightly aggrieved about losing in Cardiff and BoD has been angry and scathing in the press. That isn't good for England. Expect lost of Irish fury being vented in St' Paddy's week. The excellent Trimble is back at winger and Earls will be solid at full back. The real issue for Ireland will be goal kicking and their weak pack. Sexton has been very poor and is an odd choice to bring back in for this game. I am not an O'Gara fan but he is the more reliable kicker and clearly more experienced. Expect lots of England penalties and that will be the deciding factor. England will dominate the forwards and with the exception of Sean O'Brien and Mike Ross, Ireland's pack has been desperately disappointing. England win and deserved grand slam for the white machine but it will tight.

Ireland 21 England 29

Week 4 - Difficult to focus

It's been a tough week to be thinking about Rugby. I've spent the week in Moscow. An old school friend lost his wife at a tragically early age and then with all of the disaster in Japan - it seems wrong somehow to be worrying about the frivolities of 30 men chasing a ball. Thank god Richard Freeman and his family are safe in Yokohama although Rich in true rugby style had to spend the night at the Japanese RFU!

So - let's take a brief look at this weekend's fixtures. Two easy victories and one tight game difficult to call.

Italy v France

No surprise expected here. France will bounce back from the defeat by England top an easy victory over a stuttering Italian team. How it could have been different for Nick mallet and his team. A victory over Ireland could have been followed up with a win against a poor Welsh team and the dream of three wins in a season. As it happens, they will face Scotland for one last chance of any glory this season. France drop Chabal and Harinordoguy were both poor against England and pay the penalty today, France will also miss Yachvili - out with a late thigh strain; but will have too much forward power and talent to slip up today. I am delighted to see Medard return today - anyone with big sidies like that deserves their place on entertainment value alone. He reminds me of a young JPR Williams - not just in looks but in talent and pace. For Italy, I have been impressed with McLean and Parisse but they will have little ball and France will win comfortably.

Italy 9 France 30

Wales v Ireland

The pick of the weekend's games and it should be a titanic tussle at the Millennium. Ireland have a great record here with only one defeat and will fancy their chances again today. O'Gara impressed against Scotland and keeps his place in a largely unchanged line up. I am surprised to not see Trimble start ahead of Keith Earls. He has been in excellent form for Ulster. Sean O'Brien has impressed in the back row and Mike Ross will give Paul James a stiff challenge up front. For Wales, the aim will be to keep the ball out of Irish hands and their dangerous threequarter line. Hook is rightly restored at fly half and Roberts and Davies form a powerful duo against BoD and Darcy. halfpenny will add significant pace out wide and he is in strong kicking form so expect at least one long penalty today for half way line. The Welsh forwards need to get on top early and we will be hoping Jonathan Kaplan does a better job than Nigel Owens in penalizing Ireland's pack. Their persistent foul play and weak scrummaging was the reason Scotland failed to beat them and Wales must be hoping for firmer officiating. Bradley Davies and Wynne-Jones can match the fading O'Connell and O'Callaghan and win their line out and the Welsh back row has been on top form in all matches so far. Expect a tight game with Wales coming out on top. Just.

Wales 19 Ireland 17

England v Scotland

England have been streets ahead of all other teams and Scotland will offer little threat at HQ. Despite Townsend talking up Scottish hopes, no Scottish team has own here since 1983 and with only 4 wins ever at HQ; one cannot see an upset here and England will be far too powerful for the jocks who will be sent homeward to think again on Sunday. Kelly Brown has been dropped for poor form and the Church calling Euan Murray means another tough test for Moray low against Alex Corbisiero who has impressed with his performances this season. Young Jackson gets another start ahead of Dan Parks and lets hope he doesn't bottle it. He is a good talent but two poor games and his confidence could be shot forever. Look at Matthew Tait - he never recovered from been Hensoned and I fear young Jackson could go the same way. Flood's fitness will be a worry for England but Jonny will be standing by to come on and you couldn't ask for a safer, stronger substitute. Expect more Ashton swallow dives, Youngs dominating at scrum half and a very comfortable England victory. The White machine is rolling on an inevitable Grand Slam this season. For Scotland, defeat by less than 10 points will feel like a victory.

England 26 Scotland 9

Week 3 - Half way Point

Who would be a rugby pundit? I did scratch my head about getting things so wrong in the last round of matches. Brian Moore made a great statement that the Six nations has a habit of throwing out the form book and creating unexpected results. Lets look forward to this week's matches.

Italy v Wales

The Rome sunshine has a habit of causing problems for Wales and is the only place where Italy have won any matches. I have been very critical of Wales this season but I cannot fault the way they shut out Scotland at Murrayfield. A totally dominant performance and the defensive performance was truly world class. Hook was much more effective at No.10 but will return to Centre for this encounter. The re-emergence of Jamie Roberts was good to see and Sam Warburton was outstanding at Flanker. The Welsh back row of Lydiate, Ryan Jones and Warburton look world class and the fact and they will cause Italy a lot of problems. Wales have to attack form the start and starve Italy of possession. They will certainly front up in the pack and Wales's talents behind the scrum should see Wales home. Italy were desperately poor against England and were frankly blown away at Twickenham. They will be stronger at home and I expect a close game. Parisse was the sole Italian player to really make an impact last match. Kris Burton at Outside Half is a weak link for me and you can't see Italy doing anything expect penalties or a forward dominated try. If Wales come out firing from the start with confidence high after the win in Scotland, then I fully expect Wales to avoid more heartache and win in the sunshine even by a narrow margin.

Italy 16 Wales 23.

England v France

The big one and the championship decider. England looked awesome in battering the Italians and Ashton ran riot with 4 tries. He will face a sterner test up front but will welcome the return of Andrew Sheridan to face up against the brutal French scrummage. England otherwise have a very settled side although Lewis Moody continues to be absent. The key battle will be upfront and whoever dominates that sector of the game will take the spoils. I expect lost of penalties so kickers will be critical and England have the edge here. Flood has been the player of the tournament so far for me and his confidence is high. France scrambled to a victory against the Irish but are leaking tries every game. England will rip them open and I fully expect Ashton and Cueto to both run riot especially since Maxime Medard has had to pull out. The recall of Chabal shows France want to mix it up in pack and Clerc and Jauzion will cause problems to England's static midfield duo. France also have the bench but England are on a roll and in the end I expect them to win fairly comfortably this time.

England 26 France 17

Scotland v Ireland

What happened? Scotland who looked so positive in attack and defence against France fell apart against Wales and showed no capability in either area. What was even more worrying for Scotland was the invisibility of their back row. Dan Parks pays the price form one too many weak performance and I welcome the introduction of young Ruaridh Jackson at Fly half is a bold statement. Scotland need steel in their side as they run the risk of sinking from a second in the championship to a wooden spoon decider with Italy, Paterson recalled at full back will stabilize the back line. Mike Blair will be a low risk option at half back with young Jackson, and Bettie and Moray Low will add new vigour to their stuttering pack. For the Irish, the narrow defeat against France will give them renewed confidence. The return of Tommy Bowe is a welcome boost in a lethal threequarter line but I cannot understand the logic of recalling O'Gara and Reddan. Looks like the usual Irish return to their dads army past. The Irish will struggle in the front row and will be evenly matched in the forwards but you have to favour the Irish as Scottish confidence looks shot at the moment.

Scotland 6 Ireland 28

Week 2

The first week went essentially according to the script. The only surprises were Wales running England far closer than anticipated and Italy almost toppling Ireland. Scotland showed their potential by scoring 3 tries against the French. France looked awesome on attack but fragile in defence.

So lets look at how the teams will do in Week 2:

England v Italy

The Italians will be up for this one after their very strong showing against the Irish. Changes at half back should help them get the ball moving quicker for the azzuri but it is yup front where the battle will be won or lost. England did not have it all their own way in Wales. Paul James taught Dan Cole a scrummaging lesson and he may well have a tough time again today. The loss of Sheridan is a big loss and the English second row also look like having a difficult time. At half backs, England dominated the Welsh completely and if they had decent centres - they could be World Cup winners. Why can't England produce good centres? They have a winger factory with Cueto, Ashton, Strettle and Sackey - good enough to grace any teams. The most exciting English centres aren't even English. Hape continues to disappoint and Ricky Flutey is still missing, means England have little strength in depth here. Tate has been tried and failed several times, Anthony Allen does well at club level but is not international class, and Hipkiss has gone backwards. That leaves England with HRH Tindall and slow ponderous back play. What we need is Youngs and Flood working directly with the wingers. That is one of the things that destroyed Wales. Italy need to get their back row in the game with the excellent Parisse and get their rolling maul going to the same effect as they did against Ireland. In the end England to win comfortably.

England 26 Italy 9

Scotland v Wales

Wales have had a disastrous run - 8 straight defeats and it isn't going to change this weekend. The Welsh have a poor record at Murrayfield - just 3 wins in 20 years. Last week the red dragon did far better than I anticipated but the half backs were completely out played and over shadowed by Flood and Youngs. Stephan Jones has paid the price but the ponderous, slow, over-rated Philips survives and that won't help Wales. Roberts was anonymous last week playing most of the game on the wing. hook didn't work at full back and is a high risk at 10. Byrne is out of form but at least should stabilize at the back. I would have liked to see Wales go with the Scarlets pairing of Knowle and Preistland, both exciting runners and prospects for the future. Expect both to be on 2nd half. Wales looked strong in the pack despite Craig Mitchell being destroyed by Sheridan. Paul James is one of the best loose head scrummagers and the Scottish front row will have another torrid time. Scotland looked exciting in Paris but were completely annihilated in the scrums with Murray and Jacobsen absolutely destroyed by the French props. The second row and back row battles will be key. Bradley Davies was very exciting for Wales as ball carrier with Lydiate and Warburton also looking great for the future. Scotland's Barclay and Brown are a match for anyone in back row and Kellock will want to win at home. It will depend who dominates possession and how good the kickers are as there will be lots of penalties. Scotland edge it. Scotland 32 Wales 29

Ireland v France

Lucky Ireland. So many errors in Rome. BoD and D'Arcy made more handling errors in 1 match than they normally do in a whole season. The pack were dominated by Italy and Declan Kidney will need to add belief into his misfiring team. France looked world class. Medard was truly outstanding and the interchangeable scrum halves of Yachvili and Parra give France lots of options. The pack look awesome. The front row can take anyone apart. However, things don't look so good in defence and France leaked three tries in Paris.Expect Ireland's talented back line to do similar damage when they get the ball. Sexton looks cool and controlled and I expect Ireland to bounce back but it will be close. Ireland 19 France 17

Six Nations Rugby back this weekend and I have to say I am substantially less interested than usual. Maybe its just because its a World Cup year or maybe just that Wales are so inept right now its hard to get motivated to watch your team get hammered every week. To make matters worse, my regular match pal Alun is away in the land of the Bokke - so not going to be a positive experience methinks.

Anyway as usual, let’s start by assessing the teams:

ENGLAND

I've said it before - England are a “confidence” team. A mixed Autumn international performance where no home nation did particularly well, England came out best of a poor bunch. I see positive progress in England and they will dominate this year's Six Nations. The lose of the excellent rampaging Courtney Lawes and Tom Croft will cause some issues but England have enough strength in depth to still bring out a world class pack. Toby Flood will never be more than mediocre and I am unconvinced by Hape, but England have excellent strength in depth in back three - Ashton especially; and a great front row that they will triumph with a Grand Slam. Dan Cole is getting stronger with every game. Hartley shouldn't be there in my view - I personally favour Lee Mears; but he is a typical annoying England hooker who reminds me of Brian Moore. Bit like a wasp around a summer picnic. Lots of ball and solid reliable kickers mean England will keep the scoreboard ticking over in every game. A bold prediction for Grand Slam, but with an easy win over a Welsh team totally ravaged by injury and lacking confidence will see England start with a 20pt + margin. The three "blue" teams at home shouldn't cause any issues. Scotland have an abysmal record at Twickenham, Italy rarely show anything away from Rome and France will come close but capitulate to England penalty kicks. Their indiscipline will be their undoing. The only really difficlut trip to Dublin to face up to an unproven Ireland. England will seek off the irish and set themselves up for a good run at the World Cup with a deserved Grand Slam although it pains me to admit it.

Predicted Finish 1st - GRAND SLAM!

SCOTLAND

I see a new spring in the step of the Scots. Andy Robinson is a great coach and they showed in the past 12 months some good progress. Three wins at home over Wales, Ireland, and Italy will see Scotland rise to a second place finish in the championship - dizzy heights for a team with few outstanding players but a solid camaraderie and work ethic. John Barclay was player of the six nations last season and he is continued to improve - now within the top five world flankers in my view. The selection of Kellock as skipper is an inspired one and Scotland will surprise many with some great football not just the usual dour forward dominated stuff we usually see. Max Evans, the two Lamont brothers and the flyer Ruaridh Jackson are very talented footballers who will cause danger to any teams with the ball in hands. A bit surprise but a very solid platform to build on.

Predicted Finish – 2nd - Tied on 3 wins with France

FRANCE

The French clubs are dominating the Heineken Cup but their international performances have flattered to deceive. A terrible Autumn and a very poor coach mean France have no idea who their best players are. Do they go for the fast hands of Parra or the tactical nous and kicking of Yachvili at Scrum half? Is Skrella really a world class international fly half? I don't think so! They will start positively with a narrow win over Scotland but will be brought back to reality quickly in week 2 in Dublin. France do not have a great record there or at Twickenham, so its hard to see away wins there. They will smash Wales at home and Italy away but I really don't think they know who to pick. Livremont is a walking disaster as coach and despite their depth of talent - a disappointing campaign for them

Predicted Finish 3^rd - tied with Scotland and Ireland on 3 wins.

IRELAND

An injury ravaged squad has shown that Ireland don't really have the strength in depth these days. O'Driscoll will go breaking appearance records but the recall of Stringer shows they still have one foot in the past. Sexton has come on hugely and has replaced the mediocre O'Gara as the lynch pin to get those talented backs moving. The loss of Ferris is a big blow early in the campaign and Ireland will have an okay tournament but will lose away at Scotland and to the resurgent England at home. The aging of the Munster forwards was shown up in the Heineken Cup and they are in rebuild mode. Still 3 wins look likely.

Predicted Finish 4^th - tied with France and Scotland on 3 wins.

ITALY

"Italy get better every year" - was always one of the great sporting lies - a bit like saying Andy Murray will win one day win a Grand Slam event. I used to say the italians always offer little except a nice afternoon in Rome every two years. Things are changing and they are definitely a much stronger prospect this season. Treviso and Aeroni have definitely improved Italian rugby by being in the Magner's League and Italy look on the verge of a exciting season. Except it won't be this season! They do have some great back row forwards with Parissi and Zanni and Castrogiovanni can give any prop a hard time on his day. Behind the scrum they look pedestrian but they will cause Ireland and France some problems in Rome and Wales will once again be put to the sword. Heavy defeats by England and Scotland away will put them once again and in "a what could have been" frame of mind. Next year perhaps...

Predicted Finish – 5^th

WALES

What can you say. Words fail me how inept Wales have been this season. A frankly shockingly bad Autumn followed by horrific injury list and no Welsh clubs making it out of group phase of Heineken Cup. Wales fragile strength in depth has been made worse by some unbelievably bad selections in their Squad. One can understand leaving out Martyn Williams - as he is at the twilight of his career especially as Wales have some great young back row players in McCusker, Lydiate, and Warburton. But with Byrne misfiring and a lack of experience in the squad, leaving out Czekaj and Tom James looks very strange. There are cracks are in almost every part of the squad. With Richie Rees banned, Mike "ego the size of a planet" Philips has no real competition at scrum half. Front row looks very weak. Paul James has improved immensely but he's not Gethin Jenkins in the loose and Wales have two young props in Andrews and Bevington who are not yet ready for the step up to international rugby. Where do you play Ryan Jones? He has been excellent at 2nd row but Bradley Davies and Alun Wyn Jones are the 2nd row of the future. No real talent at No.8. The one dimensional Powell or Jonathan Thomas? Neither is very good. Behind the scrum, Stephen Jones has little competition as Dan Biggar has imploded this season. Jamie Roberts return to partner James Hook provide Wales with an excellent midfield. They will assist Wales in building some great exciting attacks when they have the ball but they will really struggle to win and retain possession. I can't see Wales coming close to winning any games. A stuffing by England and an away loss in Murrayfield will leave Wales out of the championship after only two games. Worse humiliation will follow with total capitulation in Paris and Dublin and a defeat in Rome. Gatland must go for Wales to go any further and kick on to the next level. This abysmal six nations should help him on his way to his P45!

Predicted Finish 6th - LAST - WOODEN SPOON

This weekend’s predictions:

Wales 9 England 34

Italy 14 Ireland 24

France 32 Scotland 19