Final weekend of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations – Super Saturday and Rugby Raconteur starts with an apology. Due to work and travel pressures, it was not possible to do a preview for Round 4 and we sadly will have a truncated preview for Round 5.
Round 4 had some fantastic encounters and went pretty much to script with Ireland winning against a spirited Scotland; Wales overcoming the Italians in Rome and France winning “Le Crunch” at Twickenham. The manner of those wins was a surprise in the ease of victory.
At Murrayfield, Scotland’s physicality battered Ireland and the Bravehearts would have been comfortable with just a one-point deficit at half time. Ireland's lead was just one point when Ronan Kelleher joined fellow hooker Dan Sheehan on the side lines, forcing Cian Healy into the middle of the front row and Josh van der Flier to take on lineout throwing duties, yet Scotland did not put extra pressure on those in makeshift roles and ultimately failed to score a single point after their 16th-minute converted try put them in the lead. Unfortunately, in the second half unforced errors at critical times let Ireland into win the game.
Wales were outplayed in many facets in Rome but never looked like losing to the Azzurri. They looked confident on the warmup and some outstanding individual performances through Rhys Webb and Justin Tipuric saw them win enough possession and show a ruthless streak such that the game was over as a contest by half time.
Both teams had lost all their matches going into that one, while Italy had home advantage and had beaten Wales in Cardiff the previous year. A sluggish start from the hosts in Rome enabled Wales to build a lead which they rarely looked in danger of surrendering enroute to a much-needed 29-17 triumph.
The final score line did not tell the full story of the match, with Italy carrying for 795 metres to Wales’s 479 and making a tournament-high 11 line breaks compared with just four for Wales - the most line breaks Italy have ever made against a Tier 1 nation since that data is available from 2010.
At HQ, England capitulated to a 53-10 defeat to France, the hosts suffering their worst-ever defeat at Twickenham.
Having posted a morale-boosting win in Wales last time out, England would have been optimistic about toppling a France side that showed vulnerability against Scotland two weeks ago.
However, Steve Borthwick's side were ruthlessly torn apart by one of their fierce rivals, the tone being set when the first of seven tries from the visitors was posted in just the second minute.
Can Scotland bounce back to finish strongly against Italy? Can England spoil Ireland’s party and let Les Bleus through to win the title? Can Wales raise their standards even further and frighten France in Paris?
Let’s find out:
SCOTLAND v ITALY
Scotland may well look back on the 2023 Six Nations Championship as a missed opportunity to make history with a team that has been lauded as the best in generations of Scottish rugby.
Both teams have impressed at various stages throughout the tournament but still come into the final match with slightly underwhelming records and knowing that this weekend's result could ultimately determine whether their campaign has been a good one or a bad one.
It seems like a long time ago that Duhan van der Merwe sliced through the England defence enroute to another famous win at Twickenham - a result which, unlike in previous years, was then followed up by victory over Wales in match two.
However, since those two maximum-point hauls, Gregor Townsend's men have lost back-to-back matches against France and Ireland respectively, ending their hopes of a first title since 1999, and a first-ever in the Six Nations era.
Losing to the two best teams in the world is neither shocking nor shameful for anyone, yet alone a Scottish side that has not seriously challenged the top of the Six Nations table this century, but their current crop are so good that there will still be a wistful sense of what might have been.
Never was that more true than last weekend against Ireland, who lost a string of key players to injury - including both of their hookers - yet still managed to power on in the second half for a 22-7 win at Murrayfield.
For all the positives from this year's tournament, Scotland know that defeat at home to Italy this weekend would leave them with a losing record and that the 2023 campaign will ultimately be looked back on as a failure.
However, they will be firm favourites to make it three Six Nations wins in a season for the fifth time in the last seven editions, and to finish in the top half for the first time since 2018.
Considering they had managed a winning record in just one of their 17 campaigns before that, it is important to recognise the progress Scotland have made in recent years, but the next jump to four wins and beyond has once again proved elusive this time around.
Victories also remain elusive for Italy, who like Scotland have produced plenty of encouraging performances, but who now find themselves staring down the barrel of an eighth successive Wooden Spoon, and an 18th from their 24 years in the Championship.
There is still hope for the Azzurri to avoid that fate, but defeat to Wales last time out means that they would need to beat Scotland in this game and then hope that Wales lose to France to leapfrog Warren Gatland's side back into the heady heights of fourth.
With Scotland missing key players and France needing a big win to stand any chance of winning the title, that combination of results cannot be ruled out, but realistically last weekend's home match against Wales seemed like Italy's best chance to pick up a rare victory.
Once again, then, there were underlying causes for optimism, but that was also true in the defeats to France, England, and Ireland, and sooner or later Italy will need to start turning their promise into points, as the wider picture still looks bleak.
Italy have now lost 40 of their last 41 Six Nations matches and, although the exception in that run came away from home on the final day of last year's Championship, it would take a major shock for them to repeat that feat at Murrayfield on Saturday.
Scotland will have to make do without their two main star men for this match, with Finn Russell and new centurion Stuart Hogg both picking up injuries against Ireland.
Blair Kinghorn comes back into the fold in place of Russell at 10. The versatile Edinburgh back last started at 10 for the national team in October, against Australia, and has not started in the playmaker’s role for his club this year.
With Stuart Hogg also out injured, Ollie Smith is at full-back to face the Italians, his first involvement in this year’s championship. The other two changes are in the pack. Richie Gray has not made it after suffering rib damage against Ireland and Sam Skinner starts in the second row alongside Jonny Gray, preferred to Scott Cummings who replaced Richie Gray last Sunday and is named again among the substitutes. There is a return to the starting XV for Hamish Watson, with Matt Fagerson dropping to the bench. Watson is at openside flanker, with captain Jamie Ritchie reverting to blindside and Jack Dempsey retaining the No 8 jersey.
It’s all change on the bench where Ben Healy is in line to win his first cap. The Munster stand-off recently switched allegiance from Ireland and qualifies for Scotland through his maternal grandparents.
The front-row replacements are Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, and WP Nel, with the former two set to get their first taste of action in this Six Nations. There should also be a first outing of the campaign for Cameron Redpath who is preferred to Chris Harris as the replacement centre.
Italy have also made four changes to their starting XV, with head coach Kieran Crowley handing a debut to Simone Gesi on the left wing who comes in for Edoardo Padovani, with Pierre Bruno switching from left wing to right, and Alessandro Fusco comes in for Stephen Varney at scrum half.
In the forwards, Edoardo Iachizzi and Marco Riccioni come back in to front up against the formidable Scottish pack.
Scotland are aiming for their twelfth consecutive win against Italy – this would take this streak out on its own as the dark blues’ longest run of victories against any nation in Test history.
During the Six Nations, Italy have gained 2,415 metres through kicking the ball – by far the lowest return for any team in the tournament. That’s more than a kilometre less than Scotland and 1.7km less than France and England who are within 2 metres of each other at the top of the table for this stat.
Every other team in the championship has gained more ground from kicks than they have through carrying the ball. Italy have made nearly 800m more running than they do kicking. The commitment to their attacking shape is admirable but not playing the percentages on a regular basis has put them in defensive trouble on more than one occasion.
Scotland will need to be on their guard though. Fewer kicks mean fewer counter-attacking opportunities of their own for one thing. The Azzurri’s willingness to test defences has also seen them find holes to flood through, particularly when exploiting some ropy midfield defence against Wales. The Huwipulotu partnership has drawn plenty of plaudits for their attacking flair, but they have also combined for 78 tackles at a completion rate of 88%. They will need to be on the money again on Saturday.
Despite Italy having a poor recent record against Scotland, they have still managed to score three or more tries in three of the last five meetings, so we could be in for an entertaining start to Six Nations Super Saturday.
Scotland are missing their two best players and so will be relieved that they only must cope without Russell and Hogg in the easiest match on paper in the tournament, although their absence does raise the chance of an upset.
Even so, we expect the hosts to end a largely positive tournament on a high and to secure a top-three finish in the process, while consigning Italy to yet another Wooden Spoon.
SCOTLAND 33 ITALY 21
FRANCE V WALES
France host Wales in Paris, with Fabien Galthié’s side still hoping to retain the title they won last year. Warren Gatland has avoided the wooden spoon but now faces a very tricky finale. France looked fired-up at Twickenham and will want to back up that performance in their final competitive fixture before a home World Cup.
However, for France to become the first country since England in 2017 to retain the title, they must secure a try-bonus point win and hope Ireland lose without a bonus-point against Steve Borthwick’s side at the Aviva Stadium.
For so long an unhappy hunting ground for them, Rugby HQ proved to be a bountiful treasure trove of tries for Les Bleus this time around as they crushed England in Le Crunch.
The first of their seven tries came in the very first minute, setting the tone for an utterly one-sided contest which France eventually won 53-10 - England's heaviest home defeat in their entire history, and France's joint-biggest Six Nations victory against any opposition, equalling a 56-13 triumph over Italy in 2005.
To do that away to their biggest rivals, having not won at Twickenham for 18 years before that, was a result for the ages, with a performance to match as France were fearless and flawless enroute to what must rank as one of the greatest displays of any team in Six Nations history.
Indeed, the only minor blot on the victory, at least when it is looked back on in years to come, is that it is likely to be meaningless in the Six Nations title race - although it did at least take the defence of their crown to the final weekend.
Turmoil off the pitch for much of the campaign has overshadowed some poor performances on it too, with Warren Gatland's side finding themselves in an effective Wooden Spoon decider in Rome last weekend.
Wales did at least avoid defeat there, running out 29-17 winners, but there were still worrying signs as Italy carried for far more metres and made a tournament-high 11 line breaks, beating the previous highest tally for this year's Championship which occurred in Scotland's win over Wales in round two.
A trip to a French side that was so devastating in attack last weekend is the last thing they need, then, and with a worse points difference than Italy, any defeat would still see them claim the unwanted Wooden Spoon for the first time since 2003 if the Azzurri can beat Scotland in Edinburgh earlier in the day.
Gatland will be hoping that the off-field issues are now behind his team, though, and with a first win of his second spell under their belt, they can now begin to look forward after a far more clinical display against Italy.
Wales scored tries from three of their four-line breaks in Rome, which is a far cry from their opening three games when their failure to turn visits to the 22 into points proved to be their biggest weakness.
Even so, having lost six Six Nations games on the bounce before that win over Italy last weekend, it would take a major shock for them to topple France and win back-to-back games in this competition for the first time since claiming the Grand Slam in 2021.
Defeat would mean that they have lost at least four of their five games in back-to-back Championships, something which has not happened since 2002 and 2003.
Liam Williams has been ruled out of the Wales team due to a shoulder injury. The full back was hurt during the 29-17 victory over Italy, having earlier scored a superb solo try.
Hooker Scott Baldwin, meanwhile, is also unavailable for the Stade de France encounter because of a pectoral muscle issue. Ospreys hooker Sam Parry has been called into the squad.
Another week, another roll of the dice and another much-changed Wales team.
We have reached the stage where the words ‘Gatland’ and ‘shake-up’ are fast losing the power to surprise. But another six changes it is for the game with France in Paris, following on from six for the date with Italy, nine for the match against England and a further six for the date with Scotland.
That's 27 changes since the opening day selection versus Ireland.
Head coach Warren Gatland has made six changes from the team that defeated Italy as he reverts to experience.
There are recalls for fly-half Dan Biggar, centres George North and Nick Tompkins and lock Alun Wyn Jones. Toulon fly-half Biggar missed the Italy victory with a bad back but returns at the expense of Owen Williams.
Biggar, 33, will rekindle his old Ospreys half-back partnership with Rhys Webb, player of the match in Rome last weekend.
The world's most-capped player Jones, 37, replaces 20-year-old Dafydd Jenkins to pack down in the second row with Adam Beard.
North and Tompkins replace the centre pairing of Joe Hawkins and Mason Grady, the two 20-year-olds who started the past two games.
It is a first start in this year's tournament for Saracens centre Tompkins while Grady and Hawkins miss out on the 23-man squad altogether.
Whilst Grady and Hawkins might well be Wales’s future centre pairing; they made just too many mistakes and missed tackles against Italy. The centres have not worked so far, they didn't look like internationals in the regions, and no magical transformation has occurred when capped.
Louis Rees-Zammit also returns to the starting side at full-back in place of injured Liam Williams while Aaron Wainwright replaces Jac Morgan. Wainwright makes his first appearance of the tournament, while Rees-Zammit makes his third Wales start at full-back with Leigh Halfpenny named as a replacement.
Captain Ken Owens is named as the starting hooker with Bradley Roberts as replacement and Sam Parry in France as cover.
Taulupe Faletau will win his 100th Wales cap against France in Paris. Number eight Faletau, 32, will become the eighth member of an exclusive Welsh club that comprises North, Biggar, Alun Wyn Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Stephen Jones, Gareth Thomas, and Martyn Williams.
France still has ambitions to retain their Six Nations title if they can defeat Wales and Grand Slam-chasing Ireland slip up at home to England.
Fabien Galthie has made two changes with prop Uini Atonio returning from suspension to replace Dorian Aldegheri and lock Romain Taofifenua coming in for the injured Paul Willemse.
Bastien Chalureau is on the bench instead of Taofifenua.
Wales can’t allow France to enjoy a steady flow of possession and they need the forwards and particularly Alun Wyn Jones to disrupt and help cut the supply line. It will not be easy, but international rugby isn’t easy. The plus is no-one will have a clearer idea of what’s required than world rugby’s cap record holder.
Wales’s biggest problem is lack of carrying in front 5. So far this tournament there has been no dynamism, organisation, or taking the ball at pace. Wales are far the worse in the tournament for that. They also have the slowest ruck speed, probably not unconnected.
I thought Wales showed better ball presentation against Italy. They know it's a significant issue, but much work remains to be done.
Gatland has picked a team to try get France into tedious a slug fest whilst probably hoping it'll rain chats et chiens.
There's huge pressure on the French team, not only to win, but win well and start the World Cup party. Facing an experienced, street wise, risk-free defensive side is probably not the fixture they'd particularly want.
I think that's this is the best Welsh side available for this encounter. This isn't a game to develop people. Players don't develop in a game where they are totally outclassed, they drown. People are saying this side is there to keep the score down, well if the cap fits wear it, what's the other option, get slaughtered? AWJ is not the future, but he is still the best second row in Wales even though he is not the player he was.
Dan Biggar’s return is a no-brainer - his experience and defensive qualities are badly needed. The pack can look each other in the eye, and all know they have been there and done it before. Wales will need France to have a bad day at the office to even keep it respectable, but this is not a game to play build from, they need to circle the wagons.
Brighter times should be ahead for Wales now that they have the second Gatland era up and running, but this match looks a stretch too far for them.
France will be flying after their Twickenham trouncing of England and know that only a win - and ideally a big one - would be enough to keep their title hopes alive and put the pressure on Ireland.
Wales’s defence was cut open all too often by Italy last time out, so this French backline could do some real damage as well.
FRANCE 37 WALES 10
IRELAND v ENGLAND
The grand finale of the 2023 Six Nations sees England cross the Irish sea to face Grand Slam-chasing Ireland in Dublin. Ireland’s fans and players will be looking to clear their hangovers and will be aiming to adorn St Patrick's weekend with Grand Slam glory on home soil.
Andy Farrell's men know that victory will give them just a fourth-ever Grand Slam in this competition, but England will be looking to spoil the party with their own motive of redemption following a record defeat last time out.
With their status as world number one and regular recent victories over New Zealand, it is easy to forget that Ireland are relative newcomers at the very top table of international rugby.
None of the original five nations to compete in the previous form of this tournament has won the Grand Slam on fewer occasions than Ireland, putting into even sharper focus the scale of the achievement that they find themselves on the brink of this weekend.
Victory over England would give them their first title and Grand Slam since 2018, and only their fourth clean sweep in Five or Six Nations history, so Dublin will be gearing up for an almighty party this weekend.
With St Patrick's Day itself falling on Friday, Irish fans would be forgiven for starting their celebrations early having seen England obliterated by France at Twickenham last weekend.
However, the line from the Irish camp from immediately after their victory over Scotland last weekend was one of caution regarding an England response, and any slip-up this weekend would not only cost them a Grand Slam and Triple Crown but could also see them miss out on the title should France beat Wales by a big enough margin earlier in the day.
There is still a job to complete for Farrell's side, then, but there have been precious few signs to suggest that they might fall short of that throughout this year's tournament.
Bonus-point wins over Wales, France and Italy left them with a perfect record after three games and, while they failed to pick up the bonus point against Scotland last weekend, that 22-7 triumph is arguably the one which will give Farrell the most satisfaction.
The win at Murrayfield was a seventh in a row for Ireland in the Six Nations, and another this weekend would see them create one more slice of history by winning eight on the bounce in the competition for the first time.
Those of a superstitious persuasion could draw parallels between Ireland's seven-match winning streak and England being about as far away from seventh heaven as it is possible to get last weekend, when in their 777th Test match they shipped seven tries for only the seventh time in their history.
There were no redeeming features from their humiliating and humbling home defeat at the hands of France, with the final score line of 53-10 being England's heaviest-ever defeat on home turf and their heaviest-ever Six Nations loss home or away.
It was an emphatic way for France to record their first away win in Le Crunch for 18 years and, while Fabien Galthie's side were irresistible at times, England were equally as bad, and it was a loss embarrassing enough to raise questions over Steve Borthwick just four games into his new job.
On paper, an away trip to the world's top-ranked side chasing a Grand Slam is the worst possible follow-up to such a low point, with the prospect of similar misery being inflicted now looking very realistic.
However, Borthwick will no doubt be urging his players to relish their rare role as overwhelming underdogs, and the players themselves will be desperate to prove that their chastening experience at Twickenham was just one very bad day at the office.
The pressure will all be on Ireland, whereas England arrive in Dublin with very little to lose and would love to play the party-pooper role.
Victory would also ensure that England at least end an up-and-down campaign with a winning record, although their current standing of fourth in the Six Nations table is probably a fair reflection of where they stand in the Northern Hemisphere pecking order ahead of the World Cup later this year.
As if the prospect of winning a Grand Slam, Six Nations title and Triple Crown in Dublin on St Patrick's weekend was not enough, Irish fans are also almost certain to see their talisman Johnny Sexton bid farewell to the Six Nations stage by becoming the leading points-scorer in the competition's history.
Sexton kicked seven points in the win over Scotland last weekend to leave him dead level with compatriot Ronan O'Gara as the all-time leading scorers, so any score will see him move out on his own in his final appearance in the competition before he retires after this year's World Cup.
There is a new partner in the half-backs for him, though, with Jamison Gibson-Park chosen at nine ahead of Conor Murray, who drops to the bench.
Garry Ringrose's worrying withdrawal in a neck brace last weekend means that he misses this game through injury, being replaced by Robbie Henshaw in the centre, while Ireland's third and final change is also an enforced one as Ryan Baird replaces Henderson in the second row.
Those two injury changes are better than first feared, though, with Doris and Sheehan both passed fit to start.
Rob Herring is the new replacement hooker on the bench with Kelleher missing out through injury, while Kieran Treadwell and Jimmy O'Brien also come into the matchday 23.
After being left out from the start against France, captain Owen Farrell returns to the England XV in one of four changes made by Borthwick, with Marcus Smith back on the bench.
There is also a recall for Manu Tuilagi, who makes his first appearance of the tournament at 12 in place of the injured Ollie Lawrence.
The final change in the backline sees Henry Arundell handed his first England start on the left wing, replacing Max Malins, while in the pack Ollie Chessum misses out through injury and is replaced by David Ribbans.
Amongst the subs is Dan Cole, who would join Jason Leonard, Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell in the England 100-cap club should he feature, while also making his 50th Six Nations appearance.
Nick Isiekwe and Joe Marchant also come into the matchday 23 for England, with Malins dropping out of the squad entirely.
Ireland have been England's bogey team more than any other in the Six Nations, winning 13 of their previous 23 matches against them, including both of the last two.
Farrell's men scored exactly 32 points in both of those victories - a 32-15 triumph at Twickenham last year and a 32-18 win in their last meeting in Dublin - but prior to that England won four consecutive matches against Ireland in all competitions.
Overall, England have won 80 of the previous 139 meetings between the two sides, losing 51 of those, while they also edge the head-to-head record in Ireland with 33 wins to Ireland's 32.
However, the balance of power between the two teams has been much more even in recent years, and England have only ever won twice at the Aviva Stadium, and three times in total away against Ireland in the Six Nations era.
Even without them having the lure of winning the Grand Slam in Dublin on St Patrick's weekend, Ireland away from home is the most difficult test in rugby right now, which England could view as either the worst possible or best possible follow-up match to last Saturday's debacle.
Borthwick's talented side surely cannot be as bad as they were against France again, so we do not see them being on the end of quite such a heavy defeat this time around, but it is hard to see them getting too close to their hosts this weekend either.
For Ireland, it is about implementing what they have done throughout the Championship. When Farrell’s charges get it right, which is rather quite often, they are very difficult to stop. There have been moments when they have been under pressure, such as against France in Round Two and in the first half of the Scotland clash, but there’s always been a feeling that they will eventually get on top.
Even when the Irishmen lost both of their hookers to injury at Murrayfield, which for most teams would have been catastrophic, they handled it impressively. Cian Healy was brilliant in the middle of the front-row while Josh van der Flier showed impressive accuracy with his lineout throwing. It therefore leaves you wondering where England can challenge the hosts this weekend.
Will they get on top in the set-piece? The breakdown? The kicking game? We can’t see how. It doesn’t mean that the Red Rose will ship another 50 points like they did against France, but right now Borthwick’s men are so far off Ireland that they won’t be able to dominate any facet.
Let’s be honest, Ireland are going to win comfortably, aren’t they? Andy Farrell’s men have quite rightly guarded against complacency this week and have praised the talent England contain, but they are in a different stratosphere to the visitors right now.
Everything seems to be pointing towards a perfect night for Ireland, and they will defeat the English, win the title, and claim a fourth Grand Slam in relatively comfortable fashion.
IRELAND 40 ENGLAND 23
